Post Deadline Transactions and Signings

[SeaOfBlue]

Two scenarios for Marner that make sense for both teams:

Option 1:
Marner to CAR for Jarvis, Morrow

CAR has a ton of cap space and they are the perfect team for Marner. They play strong defensively and can always use more offensive creativity. They refuse to trade for rentals which is why I don't believe Matthews is a good fit here. Leafs get back a 21 year old RW in Jarvis who will never be as good as Marner but might be 75% of Marner. Jarvis will obviously be significantly cheaper and the Leafs will get him during his prime rather than extending Marner through his 30s. The Leafs also get a 20 year old RD prospect in Morrow who can potentially play in their top 4 for the next 5-8 years. Morrow will join the NHL as a 22 year old in the 24/25 season and be on a 2 year ELC which will be perfect for his development and the Leafs cap structure.

Option 2:

Marner to NJ for Mercer, Bastian

This one is iffy because NJ can't afford all of Meier/Marner/Bratt but I belive Bratt will be moved. The Leafs get a 21 year old C/RW coming off a 27 goal/56 point season. Mercer would immediately be the fastest skater (except Lafferty) on the Leafs as well which they can use. Mercer will probably never be as good as Marner but he can realistically be a 2C for the next 5-8 years while also being significantly cheaper than Marner. Bastian is a 3/4RW that brings nastiness that is missing on the Leafs. Bastian is consistently an analytics darling while also finishing top 40 among forwards in hits/60 each of the last 2 seasons. He is basically Acciari but 6 years younger.

Both deals save the Leafs a significant amount of cap space and make them significantly younger while acquiring players that will have a legitimate impact on the roster.


Is his next contract going to be based on his old shooting mechanics or his adjusted shooting mechanics?

Let me get this straight... We are talking about trading one of the best wingers in the game in his prime for a guy who projects to be a good 2nd line winger at best and a good prospect who is still likely only going to be a more offensive 2nd pairing defenseman at best, or for a gritty 4th liner that was picked up on waivers like 2 years ago and is not overly difficult nor expensive to find in UFA in any given year + a guy who is likely topping out as a 2RW (Mercer is not going to be a center in the NHL) and we aren't getting other significant assets in the mix?

If we trade Marner to Jersey, it will likely be for Bratt, some other good young player close or in the NHL (maybe not Hughes or Nemec or Mercer, but at least Holtz or McLeod) and a 1st. Could possibly be Bratt, Holtz, McLeod, and a 1st with us sending a couple of decent prospects back with Marner. Short of that, it is not worth our time.

Carolina would have to give up Necas at the very least but I do not see the right combination of assets coming from them. It would probably have to be Necas, Drury, Morrow/Nikishin, and a 1st.

I don't care about Marner's cap hit and neither will anyone acquiring him. The guy is getting full value in a trade if the Leafs even remotely consider moving him and what you are suggesting is not even half value for him. We are better off running it back with our Core 4 again.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Jarmo has been a Marner supporter for a long time.

I'd consider a deal around Zach Werenski, Sean Kuraly and the 3rd overall pick.

I doubt we get the 3rd overall pick and Werenski.

I could see Kent Johnson, Roslovic, 22nd overall and something else... But I suspect CBJ would rather just take it slow and let their guys develop because IDK if Marner would re-sign there.

 

[uncleben]

Here's our season long roster!

Let's see who sticks and who splits this off-season

 

[Americanadian]

Let me get this straight... We are talking about trading one of the best wingers in the game in his prime for a guy who projects to be a good 2nd line winger at best and a good prospect who is still likely only going to be a more offensive 2nd pairing defenseman at best, or for a gritty 4th liner that was picked up on waivers like 2 years ago and is not overly difficult nor expensive to find in UFA in any given year + a guy who is likely topping out as a 2RW (Mercer is not going to be a center in the NHL) and we aren't getting other significant assets in the mix?

If we trade Marner to Jersey, it will likely be for Bratt, some other good young player close or in the NHL (maybe not Hughes or Nemec or Mercer, but at least Holtz or McLeod) and a 1st. Could possibly be Bratt, Holtz, McLeod, and a 1st with us sending a couple of decent prospects back with Marner. Short of that, it is not worth our time.

Carolina would have to give up Necas at the very least but I do not see the right combination of assets coming from them. It would probably have to be Necas, Drury, Morrow/Nikishin, and a 1st.

I don't care about Marner's cap hit and neither will anyone acquiring him. The guy is getting full value in a trade if the Leafs even remotely consider moving him and what you are suggesting is not even half value for him. We are better off running it back with our Core 4 again.

Bratt/Necas are just more of what the Leafs already have. Look at their points per game in the playoffs vs regular seasons. I'd rather get young players in that 20/21 range that have significant room for growth.

Saying Jarvis is a 2RW max seems like a stretch. He's been a full time NHLer since his D+2 season which is more than you can say about Nylander who turned out just fine after graduating full time in his D+4 season.

Mercer has played C in NJ this year. They needed his offense in the top 6 which is why he has been bumped to the wing but he is still a natural C. His age relativ e production is outstanding and you can reasonably expect him to eclipse P/GP in his prime.

As far as Marner’a contract - ignoring his contact and the price he is paid is what got the Leafs into the mess they’re in. If you can get 75% of the player at 50% of the cap hit you take it all day long. The best team win on surplus value, not having the best player.

 

[htpwn]

Vancouver's ownership seems desperate to make a splash (despite being a rather mediocre team).

I wonder if they would be willing to empty the cupboards to get Mitch?

The downside is that their assets aren't all that great (with Hughes and Pettersson being off the table) and they are deep in cap trouble, so we'd have to take back equivalent dollars.

 

[Americanadian]

Vancouver's ownership seems desperate to make a splash (despite being a rather mediocre team).

I wonder if they would be willing to empty the cupboards to get Mitch?

The downside is that their assets aren't all that great (with Hughes and Pettersson being off the table) and they are deep in cap trouble, so we'd have to take back equivalent dollars.

They seem like a prime candidate to take Nylander. Garland+Myers (they clear ~4M in cap)+11OA for Nylander would be an awesome deal for the Leafs to retool assuming they don’t plan on splashing in UFA on ROR or Bunting.

 

[htpwn]

They seem like a prime candidate to take Nylander. Garland+Myers (they clear ~4M in cap)+11OA for Nylander would be an awesome deal for the Leafs to retool assuming they don’t plan on splashing in UFA on ROR or Bunting.

I don't think we should be moving Nylander but if we were/do, I wouldn't touch that deal.

The 11th overall is a good, but not a great pick.

I'd want other positive assets on top of that and no cap dumps coming back.

 

[mydnyte]

I've watched Tavares, Matthews and Marner get manhandled and punched in the head during the playoffs and take it like a bunch of p***yes

It's the ******* playoffs, of course that sort of crap is going to be let go and everybody knows it because it happens every single year

You don't need to be an enforcer, McKinnon isn't a tough guy but he isn't taking **** from anybody

That's why when series get nasty and tough our guys disappear, if you aren't prepared to defend yourself nobody else is going to do the protecting for you at that time of the year

issue is, whenever a Leaf player retaliates, they get the only penalty.
they need some 'mean' players that can play top 6 F or top 4 D ...toghest regular we have is Bunting, and he isnt 'tough' just a pest

They seem like a prime candidate to take Nylander. Garland+Myers (they clear ~4M in cap)+11OA for Nylander would be an awesome deal for the Leafs to retool assuming they don’t plan on splashing in UFA on ROR or Bunting.

Nylander is coming off a 40 goal 87 point season, and is just entering his prime ...i'd expect the #2 pick for him, how a D man worse than Holl, and a meh forward.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

They seem like a prime candidate to take Nylander. Garland+Myers (they clear ~4M in cap)+11OA for Nylander would be an awesome deal for the Leafs to retool assuming they don’t plan on splashing in UFA on ROR or Bunting.

That’s a horrible deal for Nylander. No way.

 

[Americanadian]

I don't think we should be moving Nylander but if we were/do, I wouldn't touch that deal.

The 11th overall is a good, but not a great pick.

I'd want other positive assets on top of that and no cap dumps coming back.

Nylander is coming off a 40 goal 87 point season, and is just entering his prime ...i'd expect the #2 pick for him, how a D man worse than Holl, and a meh forward.

That’s a horrible deal for Nylander. No way.

What everyone seems to be ignoring is that Nylander has 1 year left on his contract and is asking for 10M. There is no guarantee he even wants to stay in Toronto. This give the Leafs the opportunity to get long term assets (Garland, 11OA) for an asset that might disappear in 14 months.

Nylander is coming off a 40 goal 87 point season, and is just entering his prime ...i'd expect the #2 pick for him, how a D man worse than Holl, and a meh forward.

As far as this comment goes - NHL players prime years are statistically 24-28 over the last 10 years. Nylander is almost at the end of his prime. Locking him up until he's 36 at 9-10M would just be bad business. Also - no one is dealing a top 5 pick for a player with 1 year remaining until UFA.

The 11th overall is a good, but not a great pick.

I agree that 11OA is good not great but this is a deep draft. I'd make this deal on draft day depending on who's left on the board. Danielson would be my #1 target. The Leafs haven't had a legitimate RS C since Bozak.

 

[HomelessPepper]

Just looking over the roster:

UFA's that we should walk away from:
* Kerfoot
* Holl
* Simmonds
* Gustafsson

UFA's that are debatable / need decisions on them:
* O'Reilly
* Kampf (keep pending price+term?)
* Bunting (I'd let him go, personally)
* ZAR

UFA's that we should keep:
* Acciari
* Schenn

Signed players we should move:
* (at least) One of Matthews, Marner, Nylander (I lean to Marner, personally)
* Muzzin (not critical, but try to keep us out of LTIR?)
* Brodie (if a suitable replacement is available... Soucy?)
* Tavares (I'd be doing everything I can to force him out)
* Lafferty (he's fine as 4th line center, I guess...)
* Timmins (?)
* Gio (or keep as #7?)
* Murray

Signed players we should keep:
* Two of Matthews, Marner, Nylander (I lean to keep Matthews and Nylander, personally)
* Jarnkrok
* Knies
* Rielly (I wouldn't be against moving him due to cap hit, but he's a beast in the playoffs)
* McCabe
* Liljegren
* Woll
* Samsonov (pending price+term?)


Jarnkrok - Matthews - Nylander
Knies - X - X
X - X - X
X - X - X

Rielly - Schenn
McCabe - Liljegren
X - X
Gio

Woll
Samsonov


I think the biggest problem is, there doesn't seem to be a ton of enticing UFA's... Some names that jump out at me (from my interests, or from other peoples suggestions):
* Tarasenko
* Bertuzzi (health is a major concern here)
* Barbashev
* Kane
* Severson
* Soucy
* Mayfield
* Korpisalo (as an alternative to Samsonov)

So, we either need to get roster players for our trades, or expect to take a step back.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Murray needs to be LTIRetired, f*** a trade. The man is so consistently broken there has to be some ailment we can play up. Next years goalie tandem needs to be Samsonov-Woll.

For the defence, assuming we don’t move one of the Big Three disappointments up front, it’ll be the same minus Holl (Thank God) and Gustafsson. Definitely should re-sign Schenn. Good leader and a great playoffs. He and Rielly were a stellar pairing. Liljegren gets promoted full time and a new coach should hopefully not waste his talent. Worried about Gio but we traded his successor so them’s the breaks. Suppose if push comes to shove we can move Brodie to LD to play alongside Timmins or Liljegren so we can bench Gio.

Up front, let Kerfoot walk for sure. Put his money towards O’Reilly and Acciari, the latter of whom should definitely be re-signed, while the former will depend on cap-hit and term. Promote Knies of course and Robertson. Knies will provide much needed secondary scoring that we always seem to lack in the playoffs, and hopefully Robertson finds his way to bringing some of the offensive prowess he’s shown in lesser leagues to the NHL finally. Find an enforcer that can play as well. Watching Bennett and Florida run around with no pushback made me sick. Simmonds has the heart but his body can’t do the job, and ZAR was fine as a fourth liner but he doesn’t have the gumption for the role.

Bunting would need to take another discounted contract to stay but I don’t think he will nor should he. I hope he gets paid elsewhere and he can play his rat game proper outside of this market since we as a franchise just aren’t allowed to have players like him. Kampf would need to take another low price contract. Not sure what the market for him will look like but he shouldn't make more than what he currently is, but if he does find a pay raise let him walk and promote Holmberg, especially if you can bring back O'Reilly.

As for the broader UFA market, none of the players this off-season entice me. We know how overpaid UFA's can be and I don't think any potential signings outside of our own UFA's will provide better than what we got. When it comes to RFAs (not saying we should offersheet someone) we should look for a Samsonov sort of scenario where a team lets a player walk to UFA instead of going to arbitration. One player I'd be interested in is Jonah Gadjovich of the Sharks. One of the top leaders in fights and a tough Ontario boy who plays with heart and could fill a sort of enforcer role on the team. That is of course if the Sharks walk away, not holding my breath though.

Biggest change Leafs should make is firing the coach.

 

[leafsfan5]

I might sound crazy, but I am interested in Drouin on a cheap deal in UFA

Make him a playmaking third liner

 

[Phion Keneuf]

I might sound crazy, but I am interested in Drouin on a cheap deal in UFA

Make him a playmaking third liner

Yuck.

I’d much rather target Laff and Kakko who actually have potential.

 

[Gallagbi]

I might sound crazy, but I am interested in Drouin on a cheap deal in UFA

Make him a playmaking third liner

I dont hate him as an option, but it feels like much of the same. Id rather add speed and size this offseason for our depth roles.

 

[ErnieLeafs]

Nylander + 6th for Tom Wilson and Vinny Lorio?

 

[leafsfan5]

Yuck.

I’d much rather target Laff and Kakko who actually have potential.

They will also cost assets and more money

Drouin is a UFA who will likely come pretty cheap, he has some solid playmaking ability and won't be asked to do a lot. Gives us some good offensive ability in a support role

I dont hate him as an option, but it feels like much of the same. Id rather add speed and size this offseason for our depth roles.

I agree that should be the overall goal, Drouin is just one guy I think could turnout to be a diamond in the rough

Speed + good forechecking are the things our bottom 6 needs to have.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

They will also cost assets and more money

Drouin is a UFA who will likely come pretty cheap, he has some solid playmaking ability and won't be asked to do a lot. Gives us some good offensive ability in a support role


I agree that should be the overall goal, Drouin is just one guy I think could turnout to be a diamond in the rough

Speed + good forechecking are the things our bottom 6 needs to have.

Drouin just seems like it’s going to be a Galchenyuk 2.0 all over again.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Bratt/Necas are just more of what the Leafs already have. Look at their points per game in the playoffs vs regular seasons. I'd rather get young players in that 20/21 range that have significant room for growth.

Saying Jarvis is a 2RW max seems like a stretch. He's been a full time NHLer since his D+2 season which is more than you can say about Nylander who turned out just fine after graduating full time in his D+4 season.

Mercer has played C in NJ this year. They needed his offense in the top 6 which is why he has been bumped to the wing but he is still a natural C. His age relativ e production is outstanding and you can reasonably expect him to eclipse P/GP in his prime.

As far as Marner’a contract - ignoring his contact and the price he is paid is what got the Leafs into the mess they’re in. If you can get 75% of the player at 50% of the cap hit you take it all day long. The best team win on surplus value, not having the best player.

Mercer had one more point than Bratt... And Jarvis has 2 more than Necas while playing on a line with Aho instead of their secondary options like Necas has been.

Mercer has played center in his career. He sucked at it. He is a winger in the NHL unless he drastically improves as a center but more often than not, that does not happen for guys.

If the Leafs prefer Mercer and Jarvis over Bratt and Necas, then fine, but they still need to get proper value. Marner is a core player. He gets paid like one, and he should also be valued like one too.

I will say this. I understand where you are getting at with surplus value, but there are also pitfalls with it too. Bunting has arguably been one of the best surplus value contracts in the league. He makes less than 10% of what Marner does and is a lot more than 10% of the player. Should we trade Marner for Bunting straight up? Bunting provides far more surplus value than Marner.

And we've seen guys like Jones, Eichel, DeBrincat, Tkachuk/Huberdeau, Trouba, Stone, Karlsson, etc. get moved over the past 5 years or so... A ton of big names with big cap hits who can realistically be considered core players, but in terms of value, Marner would still be among the highest on that list. Yet a return of Mercer/Jarvis without much of anything else would be among the worst returns for any of those players.

So hard pass for the Leafs on those guys without some other significant assets coming along with them.

 

[Americanadian]

Mercer had one more point than Bratt... And Jarvis has 2 more than Necas while playing on a line with Aho instead of their secondary options like Necas has been.

Mercer has played center in his career. He sucked at it. He is a winger in the NHL unless he drastically improves as a center but more often than not, that does not happen for guys.

If the Leafs prefer Mercer and Jarvis over Bratt and Necas, then fine, but they still need to get proper value. Marner is a core player. He gets paid like one, and he should also be valued like one too.

I will say this. I understand where you are getting at with surplus value, but there are also pitfalls with it too. Bunting has arguably been one of the best surplus value contracts in the league. He makes less than 10% of what Marner does and is a lot more than 10% of the player. Should we trade Marner for Bunting straight up? Bunting provides far more surplus value than Marner.

And we've seen guys like Jones, Eichel, DeBrincat, Tkachuk/Huberdeau, Trouba, Stone, Karlsson, etc. get moved over the past 5 years or so... A ton of big names with big cap hits who can realistically be considered core players, but in terms of value, Marner would still be among the highest on that list. Yet a return of Mercer/Jarvis without much of anything else would be among the worst returns for any of those players.

So hard pass for the Leafs on those guys without some other significant assets coming along with them.

Jarvis is not going to be asking for as much as Necas on his next contract due to regular season production. Jarvis outproduced him in the playoffs 2 years in a row despite being 19 and 20.

Mercer is also not going to be expecting as much as Bratt. I still believe Mercer, the 21 year old sophomore who played center his whole life, is a center despite your doubts. Mercer outproduced Bratt this playoffs while anchoring the bottom 6 as 3C for 50%(not sure the exact number) of the games.

As far as Bunting for Marner - I'd trade Bunting for Marner if Bunting had his identical production at 20/21. The value in these players is signing them to contracts based off low production on ELC then getting surplus value when they mature - which all the players I proposed are options for that.

I think you are incredibly underrating Mercer/Jarvis while overrating Marner's value on his current contract. I'd take Mercer/Jarvis over any of the pieces in the Stone, Trouba, Jones, Karlsson deal. I'd take Mercer/Jarvis over any of the pieces in the Eichel deal when it was made (look at Tuch's production prior to the trade), same goes for Norris/Stutzle WHEN SJ made the trade. I'd take 7OA (Debrincat deal) over those players though.

 

[jiggy35]

My intuition is to accept that Matthews will likely not re-sign, but likely turn it up a notch in a contract year. Let’s say he wants to go back to AZ. Not worth it to trade him to a limited market.

Trade Marner + Murray to AZ for Cooley + Crouse (Leafs try to re-unite Cooley + Knies long term, AZ gets Matthews - Marner long term).

Let’s assume RoR/Acciari/Schenn do not re-sign.

~15m cap space

UFA targets: Mayfield, Killorn, Compher

Baseline:

Crouse - Matthews - Nylander
Bunting - Tavares - XXX (Killorn)
Knies - Cooley - XXX (Compher)
Lafferty/Robertson - Holmberg - Jarnkrok
McMann

Rielly - XXX (Mayfield)
McCabe - Liljegren
Brodie - Timmins/Gio

Samsonov
Woll

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Dumoulin, Mayfield, Soucy, Gavrikov.

One of these guys need to be signed. Orlov would be nice but definitely see him raking in a big contract and/or heading back to Caps.

With a Schenn re-sign of course.

Rielly-Schenn
McCabe-new guy
Brodie-Liljegren
/Timmins

 

[Americanadian]

Dumoulin, Mayfield, Soucy, Gavrikov.

One of these guys need to be signed. Orlov would be nice but definitely see him raking in a big contract and/or heading back to Caps.

With a Schenn re-sign of course.

Rielly-Schenn
McCabe-new guy
Brodie-Liljegren
/Timmins

One of those players is a RHD.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

One of those players is a RHD.

Yeah and?

Dumoulin, Mayfield, Soucy can all play right side.
Gavrikov adds some much need physicality and defensive play.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Dumoulin, Mayfield, Soucy, Gavrikov.

One of these guys need to be signed. Orlov would be nice but definitely see him raking in a big contract and/or heading back to Caps.

With a Schenn re-sign of course.

Rielly-Schenn
McCabe-new guy
Brodie-Liljegren
/Timmins

Highly doubt Gio is out of the mix altogether next year. More likely him and Timmins are splitting time and opportunities.