Post Deadline Transactions and Signings

[Dekes For Days]

So you just got faced with direct stats that Matthews scores more of his goals then mcdavid on the power play and your response is to just deny it

I didn't deny anything, and ironically, it was you that ignored direct stats showing McDavid producing a higher percentage of his points on the PP. I have no clue why you think it's relevant who scored a higher percentage of their goals on the PP over the past 2 seasons, especially considering that Matthews is primarily a goal-scorer on his team's PP setup, while McDavid is largely a playmaker on his, which makes cherry picking PP goals like you have quite misleading in terms of how their respective overall production is being generated.

The simple fact is, Matthews has kept pace with McDavid at 5v5. Over the past 4 years (the timeframe that was being discussed) at 5v5, Matthews has produced at a rate of 2.85 P/60, while McDavid has produced at a rate of 2.93. A negligible difference that is more than made up for the difference in their defensive play. Even this year, with Matthews playing injured and having the worst puck luck imaginable, and McDavid having a generational season, their rate of production at 5v5 is pretty similar (a difference of 0.1 P/60).

The separation between them largely comes from McDavid exploding post-signing into the best PP player since Lemieux, while Matthews is at a more normal elite level on the PP.

he's outscoring him 73-41 on even strength points.
You're literally just making stuff up at this point

Even aside from being wildly misleading in the way you stated that, neither of these numbers are even accurate, which makes your subsequent statement even more ironic.

 

[Dreakmur]

McDavid evolved post-signing into a better player on the PP specifically than Matthews and everybody the league has seen since Lemieux.
That's really the only thing he has on Matthews.

McDavid signed after putting up 100 points and winning the Art Ross in his second year and first full season. In his final ELC year, he repeated as the Art Ross winner with 108 points.

Matthews signed after putting up 73 points, which was good for 42nd in the league, in his third year.

Let’s not pretend the gap wasn’t wide right from the start.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews signed after putting up 73 points, which was good for 42nd in the league, in his third year.
Let’s not pretend the gap wasn’t wide right from the start.

That is both false, and incredibly misleading. That's like saying McDavid was just a 40 point player in his rookie year. Matthews signed in the middle of his 3rd year while pacing for a 50-goal, 100 point season despite playing with two depth rookies, after already putting up a PPG+ season despite his production being irrationally neutered by Babcock in a way that no similar caliber young player had experienced.

Through his pre-signing period, Matthews matched (and exceeded the rate of) McDavid's primary point production, and produced overall points at a similar rate 5v5 and on the PP. The difference between them largely came down to just overall points per game created by a difference in opportunity, not player quality. And by that exclusive measure, Matthews is not the historical outlier. McDavid is.

The fact is, the gap between them then through their respective pre-signing periods was small.
The fact is, the gap between them now is entirely a result of McDavid exploding post-signing into the best PP player since Lemieux.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Bob Mckenzie said that on an 8 year deal Matthews wouldve come in at 1+ million more than McDavid, so its not unreasonable to assume that an 8 year deal wouldve come in at least at 16.57% of an 81.5 million dollar cap (that would be a little over 13.5 a year), which is what the cap was in the first year of Matthews' extension.

While I love Bob, who the hell is negotiating that extension? Helen Keller?

 

[Americanadian]

Most recent pace at time of signing
McDavid - 100
Matthews - 99
Eichel - 77

What?

 

[Dreakmur]

That is both false, and incredibly misleading. That's like saying McDavid was just a 40 point player in his rookie year.

McDavid was a 40 point player in his rookie year. It was due to an injury that cost him half the season, but that doesn’t change the fact that he scored 48 points.

Matthews signed in the middle of his 3rd year while pacing for a 50-goal, 100 point season despite playing with two depth rookies, after already putting up a PPG+ season despite his production being irrationally neutered by Babcock in a way that no similar caliber young player had experienced.

Through his pre-signing period, Matthews matched (and exceeded the rate of) McDavid's primary point production, and produced overall points at a similar rate 5v5 and on the PP. The difference between them largely came down to just overall points per game created by a difference in opportunity, not player quality. And by that exclusive measure, Matthews is not the historical outlier. McDavid is.The fact is, the gap between them then through their respective pre-signing periods was small.

Seems like they poorly read the situation. The proof is in the post signing pudding.

The fact is, the gap between them now is entirely a result of McDavid exploding post-signing into the best PP player since Lemieux.

So your claim is that Matthews was both being held back by Babcock and also that he only fell behind McDavid because he failed to “explode” after being freed from Babcock’s tyranny m?

 

[Dekes For Days]

What?

What's confusing for you? Matthews was on a 99 point pace when he signed.

McDavid was a 40 point player in his rookie year.

No, he wasn't. You're misrepresenting the production level of McDavid, like you did with Matthews, by ignoring GP.

Seems like they poorly read the situation. The proof is in the post signing pudding.

Matthews has been one of the best players in the world through his contract, is well worth his contract, and pretty much everything the pre-signing metrics suggested has come true.
Doesn't seem like they poorly read the situation at all.

So your claim is that Matthews was both being held back by Babcock and also that he only fell behind McDavid because he failed to “explode” after being freed from Babcock’s tyranny?

Matthews was being held back by Babcock. Matthews did excel once away from Babcock, and did benefit from not being irrationally neutered.
The fact that he didn't also suddenly explode into the best PP player since Lemieux doesn't change that.

 

[Dreakmur]

No, he wasn't. You're misrepresenting the production level of McDavid, like you did with Matthews, by ignoring GP.

Games played is important. As the old saying goes, the best ability is availability.

Matthews has been one of the best players in the world through his contract, is well worth his contract, and pretty much everything the pre-signing metrics suggested has come true.
Doesn't seem like they poorly read the situation at all.

Using McDavid as the comparison was a poor read. More importantly, McDavid is still locked in for another 3 years after this, while Matthews will be demanding another hefty raise.

Matthews was being held back by Babcock.

You say being held back, but the proper term would be ‘developed’. He’s a better player today because Babcock made him accountable and forced him to earn his ice time.

Matthews did excel once away from Babcock, and did benefit from not being irrationally neutered.
The fact that he didn't also suddenly explode into the best PP player since Lemieux doesn't change that.

He didn’t live up to his contract the way McDavid did. Either Matthews of overpaid or McDavid is underpaid. Either way, they aren’t true comparables.

Why hasn’t he been better on the PP? He has better talent around him than McDavid has in Edmonton.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Games played is important. As the old saying goes, the best ability is availability.



Using McDavid as the comparison was a poor read. More importantly, McDavid is still locked in for another 3 years after this, while Matthews will be demanding another hefty raise.



You say being held back, but the proper term would be ‘developed’. He’s a better player today because Babcock made him accountable and forced him to earn his ice time.



He didn’t live up to his contract the way McDavid did. Either Matthews of overpaid or McDavid is underpaid. Either way, they aren’t true comparables.

Why hasn’t he been better on the PP? He has better talent around him than McDavid has in Edmonton.

Not really invested in the argument, McDavid is obviously better and took a publicly known discount so no contract is going to look good against his 1 to 1. Having said that Edmonton has 40 more PP opportunities than us so far this season with McDavid playing out of his mind shooting 20% on the year. For context, their PP was high end in the past few years (11 or so G/60) while not getting a lot of opportunities, usually lower-middle of the pack with us. This year they’re 50% more efficient (15+ G/60) and 3rd in opportunities with McDavid scoring on 1 in 5 shots at all game situations, probably closer to 1 in 3 on the PP.

Our PP is as efficient as McDavid’s unit was last year and we’re still only getting lower-middle of the pack amount of opportunities, even if Matthews was healthy all year and shooting even better than last year there’s just no feasible way to bridge a 40 PP gap against a top-10 player having his peak season.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

I honestly think the Kings could out the Oilers. They have the personnell to slow down the offence, and Edmonton's goaltending situation is just frightening. So much pressure on young Skinner.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Games played is important. As the old saying goes, the best ability is availability.

Not for the purposes of determining post-ELC contract valuation. It's misleading to misrepresent their production levels by ignoring critical information like GP.
Also, for the record, McDavid spent more time injured than Matthews through their pre-signing periods.

Using McDavid as the comparison was a poor read.

McDavid was but one of many different comparables for Matthews, and he was appropriate to use as one of them, considering how close McDavid and Matthews were through their pre-signing periods. Matthews received a lesser contract than McDavid by an amount that was appropriate for what they had each shown, and that contract was consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts. If McDavid ends up exploding in an abnormal way into the best PP player the league has seen in decades post-signing, that doesn't retroactively make everybody else's contract bad.

The only one using McDavid as the exclusive comparable is you, because it allows people like you to take one of the best post-ELC contracts ever, apply the biggest post-negotiation discount ever, ignore cap inflation, apply McDavid's abnormal post-signing PP explosion, and look at one exclusive metric that most flatters McDavid, to suggest things about Matthews' contract that are factually incorrect.

Funny how Eichel is never included in these comparisons anymore, as that comparison would make Matthews' contract look great.

Throughout Matthews' contract, he has been one of the best players in the world, culminating in an MVP season last year. He is earning his contract, and then some.
There is no way to twist that into a "poor read".

You say being held back, but the proper term would be ‘developed’. He’s a better player today because Babcock made him accountable and forced him to earn his ice time.

That was not development. That was Babcock being stubborn and stupidly hurting his team and Matthews, who did everything possible to earn the ice time, opportunity, and deployment that he was irrationally refused, unlike any similar caliber player in modern history.
The biggest thing Babcock did to contribute to the player Matthews is today was get fired before he could ruin him or drive him away.

He didn’t live up to his contract the way McDavid did. Either Matthews of overpaid or McDavid is underpaid.

He is living up to his contract. McDavid also living up to his contract doesn't change that. Of course McDavid is underpaid. That was pretty much guaranteed when he took a great contract and then added on the biggest post-negotiation discount ever. Not sure why that would be a surprise to anybody.

Why hasn’t he been better on the PP?

He's been really good on the PP, and produced at an elite level. Not everybody is going to become arguably the best PP player ever.

He has better talent around him than McDavid has in Edmonton.

That's not really true. Edmonton's PP also runs through McDavid way more than ours runs through Matthews.

 

[4thline]

Pretty sparse looking Group 6 list this year , Eyssimont, Phillips, maybe Benson (though he's been trending backwards) are about all that's interesting, and none could be pencilled into the opening day roster.

Prospective Non-Tendered RFA List
Comtois is about it for underperformers with a relatively high QO, but Ducks have tonnes of cap space
Ross Colton could have a pretty spicy arbitration award, if Tampa can't lock him early they might have to walk away. Jeannot in the same boat.

 

[Dreakmur]

Also, for the record, McDavid spent more time injured than Matthews through their pre-signing periods.

Yep, they both missed similar number of games, so the 50 extra points that McDavid put up doesn’t need to be adjusted.

McDavid was but one of many different comparables for Matthews, and he was appropriate to use as one of them, considering how close McDavid and Matthews were through their pre-signing periods. Matthews received a lesser contract than McDavid by an amount that was appropriate for what they had each shown, and that contract was consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts. If McDavid ends up exploding in an abnormal way into the best PP player the league has seen in decades post-signing, that doesn't retroactively make everybody else's contract bad.

The only way Matthews should have been compared yo McDavid is to show how large the gap was.

The only one using McDavid as the exclusive comparable is you, because it allows people like you to take one of the best post-ELC contracts ever, apply the biggest post-negotiation discount ever, ignore cap inflation, apply McDavid's abnormal post-signing PP explosion, and look at one exclusive metric that most flatters McDavid, to suggest things about Matthews' contract that are factually incorrect.

I’m not even using McDavid as a comparable, like Dubas should have also done.

Funny how Eichel is never included in these comparisons anymore, as that comparison would make Matthews' contract look great.

Eichel got a bad contract too, but at least it was 8 years.

Throughout Matthews' contract, he has been one of the best players in the world, culminating in an MVP season last year. He is earning his contract, and then some.
There is no way to twist that into a "poor read".

Giving him a contract that was more valuable than McDavid’s was a poor read. That’s it even debatable.

That was not development. That was Babcock being stubborn and stupidly hurting his team and Matthews, who did everything possible to earn the ice time, opportunity, and deployment that he was irrationally refused, unlike any similar caliber player in modern history.
The biggest thing Babcock did to contribute to the player Matthews is today was get fired before he could ruin him or drive him away.

Matthews should thank Babcock for helping him become the well rounded player he is today.

He is living up to his contract. McDavid also living up to his contract doesn't change that. Of course McDavid is underpaid. That was pretty much guaranteed when he took a great contract and then added on the biggest post-negotiation discount ever. Not sure why that would be a surprise to anybody.

He's been really good on the PP, and produced at an elite level. Not everybody is going to become arguably the best PP player ever.

That's not really true. Edmonton's PP also runs through McDavid way more than ours runs through Matthews.

All you have to do is admit the obvious reality that McDavid is way better than Matthews…. It shouldn’t be that hard.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yep, they both missed similar number of games, so the 50 extra points that McDavid put up doesn’t need to be adjusted.

For the record, at time of signing, Matthews had put up 30 more points than McDavid.
And your GP misrepresentation was centered around the singular year you cherry picked, where they had not missed a similar number of games.

The only way Matthews should have been compared yo McDavid is to show how large the gap was.

The gap wasn't large.

I’m not even using McDavid as a comparable

You very literally did. And worse, you're illogically using things that happened post-signing to make incorrect claims about the signing.

Giving him a contract that was more valuable than McDavid’s was a poor read.

He didn't get a contract that was more valuable than McDavid. And beyond that, even if he had, it wouldn't make Matthews' contract bad to be worse than one of the best post-ELC contracts ever. We signed a top-tier player to a post-ELC contract consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts, and he's become one of the best players in the world, and just won MVP. There is no way to twist that into a poor read.

Matthews should thank Babcock for helping him become the well rounded player he is today.

Babcock had zero impact on Matthews becoming the well-rounded player he is today. If we're going to credit any coach, it would be Keefe.

All you have to do is admit the obvious reality that McDavid is way better than Matthews…. It shouldn’t be that hard.

Unlike you, I don't like making false statements. McDavid is a better player than Matthews, but the gap is not nearly as large as you're suggesting, both currently and through their pre-signing periods. The current separation is primarily a result of McDavid's post-signing explosion on the PP. Matthews has more than kept pace with McDavid 5v5.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

See

Block him then, we don't want to see your interpersonal drama play out. Dekes is a good poster, disagreeing with them doesn't change that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I honestly think the Kings could out the Oilers. They have the personnell to slow down the offence, and Edmonton's goaltending situation is just frightening. So much pressure on young Skinner.

Unfortunately, LA hasn't gotten very good goaltending themselves this year, but I'm all for Korpisalo going 2020 playoffs on them.
It will be interesting to see what Edmonton does this offseason. They have both of their goalies locked in for 3+ more years, but can they really rely on a Campbell/Skinner combo through the rest of McDavid's contract/peak?

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

I honestly think the Kings could out the Oilers. They have the personnell to slow down the offence, and Edmonton's goaltending situation is just frightening. So much pressure on young Skinner.

I have LA coming out of the Pacific. Too many question marks for the other teams.

Yes, I'm a Korpisalo believer lol

 

[ACC1224]

I have LA coming out of the Pacific. Too many question marks for the other teams.

Yes, I'm a Korpisalo believer lol

Me too. He would have looked great here, seemed like a missed opportunity.

 

[Dreakmur]

For the record, at time of signing, Matthews had put up 30 more points than McDavid.

And the analytics didn't predict the future? Heresy.

And your GP misrepresentation was centered around the singular year you cherry picked, where they had not missed a similar number of games.

I cherry picked their most recent season before signing their contract, So dishonest of me....

The gap wasn't large.

Two Art Ross trophies vs. a career high 20th in league scoring. Gap not large.....

You very literally did. And worse, you're illogically using things that happened post-signing to make incorrect claims about the signing.

I very literally said he's so much better that he shouldn't even be used as a comparable....

He didn't get a contract that was more valuable than McDavid.

He did. You'll see that when he signs his next one.....

Babcock had zero impact on Matthews becoming the well-rounded player he is today. If we're going to credit any coach, it would be Keefe.

Sheldon "no accountability" Keefe.... yeah, that's who demanded better from Matthews...

The current separation is primarily a result of McDavid's post-signing explosion on the PP. Matthews has more than kept pace with McDavid 5v5.

The "current separation".... which is huge.... go on, you can say it.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

The "current separation".... which is huge.... go on, you can say it.

The only huge separation is between McDavid and the guy who just scored who he was supposed to be covering

 

[andora]

The only huge separation is between McDavid and the guy who just scored who he was supposed to be covering

I liked that one

 

[Dekes For Days]

And the analytics didn't predict the future?

Those aren't analytics. But by your logic, it would mean Matthews deserved more than McDavid.

I cherry picked their most recent season before signing their contract, So dishonest of me....

Actually, you cherry picked the total points in the most recent season for McDavid, and a season that wasn't even completed for Matthews when he signed, and then misrepresented their production levels by conveniently forgetting to mention the difference in their GP, and ignoring all of the relevant information that was provided to you.

Two Art Ross trophies vs. a career high 20th in league scoring. Gap not large.....

On top of being a bad and misleading way to compare, neither of those are even correct.
The metrics comparing their pre-signing periods have been provided in post 1636.
The gap was not large.

I very literally said he's so much better that he shouldn't even be used as a comparable....

Yet you're repeatedly attempting to use him as a comparable (in incorrect and misleading ways) and compare their contracts.
Because you require an outlier in the exclusive metric you're choosing, to make the false arguments you are about Matthews' contract.

He did.

He very factually didn't. That's been proven plenty over the past couple pages.

Sheldon "no accountability" Keefe.... yeah, that's who demanded better from Matthews...

Your incorrect assessment of Keefe doesn't change the fact that Matthews' development into a two-way force happened under Keefe.
There is zero justification for attributing it to Babcock. Babcock didn't have a clue about defense, and didn't use Matthews appropriately.
He hurt Matthews' development, and prevented us from fully benefiting from him on his ELC.

The "current separation".... which is huge....

The current separation, which is not huge. McDavid only has the reigning MVP beat in man-advantage situations.

 

[LaPlante94]

Are we really trying to say Matthews is on McDavids level? Am I following this wrong?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Are we really trying to say Matthews is on McDavids level? Am I following this wrong?

Overall, it's fair to say that Matthews is currently slightly below McDavid's level due to the superiority that McDavid has on everybody in the league on the PP.
Both are well worth their contracts.

 

[andora]

In a just world i dont think he should make more than mackinnon

But i think he will