Blue Jays Discussion: post-deadline, back-at-home edition

[dredeye]

Hand has been awful

 

[phillipmike]

Blue Jays Top Prospects | MLB.com

Jays in the top 100;

Groshans was 29th before the re-rank and after having his best season in the minors, he moves to 61?

Good to see Moreno and Martinez in the top 50.

Austin Martin is 38 and SWR isn’t in the top 100.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Puckstuff]

This guy gave a player coming off a .750 ops season a 300 million dollar deal. For a guy that manages risk for a living that was not very smart. Semien’s contract was way better even at the time.

 

[weems]

Feelsbadman

 

[Amadeus]

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Feelsbadman

Yea its mail it in and look forward to next year time.

 

[dredeye]

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Feelsbadman

Yea that’s all she wrote. If Montoyo doesn’t lose his job as a result of this I’m going to lose my mind

 

[PiIsExactlyThree]

Jays in the top 100;

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Groshans was 29th before the re-rank and after having his best season in the minors, he moves to 61?

Good to see Moreno and Martinez in the top 50.

Austin Martin is 38 and SWR isn’t in the top 100.

Groshans > Martin

 

[Suntouchable13]

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Feelsbadman

I think they got a run left in them. It's a shame if they don't because their run differential is way better than all the wildcard teams. Or maybe run diff. means squat.

 

[trellaine201]

its wins that count. throw everything else out.

 

[MS]

I think they got a run left in them. It's a shame if they don't because their run differential is way better than all the wildcard teams. Or maybe run diff. means squat.

9 of their next 13 are against Baltimore and Detroit, so they have a great opportunity to go on a run and drag themselves back into it. Whether they can is another story.

 

[BlueForever75]

9 of their next 13 are against Baltimore and Detroit, so they have a great opportunity to go on a run and drag themselves back into it. Whether they can is another story.

Detroit has been one of the hotter teams since June so no easy feat. Baltimore always gives the Jays fits. Anything worse than a 7-2 record would be the end of any hope for a playoff birth.

Yankees, Mariners, Red Sox and A's arent faltering.

 

[MS]

Detroit has been one of the hotter teams since June so no easy feat. Baltimore always gives the Jays fits. Anything worse than a 7-2 record would be the end of any hope for a playoff birth.

Yankees, Mariners, Red Sox and A's arent faltering.

As and Red Sox are both faltering. Red Sox are on a 6-14 run right now and Oakland has lost 5 of 6. Yankees on the other hand are red hot.

Jays are 14-5 over the past two years against Baltimore so they've done pretty well there.

 

[Discoverer]

We have 4 years of control on Vlad and 5 on Bo. Only 2 more on Teoscar, but Ryu comes off by then.

Plus we have close to 30 mil in dead cap coming off this off-season. So tons of $$ room to work with. Should have no problem bringing back Semien and Ray for around 4/90 each, and then still have plenty to bring in a couple of big BP arms and a veteran 3B for one year until Groshans/Smith can take over there.

Plus we can probably unload Grichuk's salary to create more space and a surplus of young catching we can move for BP help.

I don't think Semien is underrated enough now that he'll get less than $100 million. I think we're probably talking closer to $150 million.

 

[Kurtz]

I don't think Semien is underrated enough now that he'll get less than $100 million. I think we're probably talking closer to $150 million.

The reason I think/hope he might get under $100 is that there are 5 all-star shortstops scheduled to hit free agency, and he's the oldest of the 5.

 

[Discoverer]

The reason I think/hope he might get under $100 is that there are 5 all-star shortstops scheduled to hit free agency, and he's the oldest of the 5.

Oldest, but also the best.

 

[BlueForever75]

Oldest, but also the best.

But holds flexibility to play both SS and 2B. He may be better suited to search out a contract that is as a 2B and ask for max money at that position.

Right now its Altuve and everyone else. Altuve is at 29 mill per season and the best 2B in baseball. After him is LeMathieu and a bunch of others 15 million a season and lower. Semien can easily eclipse 20 million per season as a 2B. The same cant be said as a SS where he will be lower in the pecking order.

Jays should bring him back at a 4yr/88 million contract. 22 mill a season. Should get it done.

 

[FreeBird]

Yea that’s all she wrote. If Montoyo doesn’t lose his job as a result of this I’m going to lose my mind

poor Montoya he gets all the shit for the bobsey twins shatskins they give him chickens shit and expect him to make chickens salad

 

[TheBeastCoast]

poor Montoya he gets all the shit for the bobsey twins shatskins they give him chickens shit and expect him to make chickens salad

This roster is not chicken shit. Go watch the Orioles for a week to gain a little pinch of perspective.

 

[BlueForever75]

poor Montoya he gets all the shit for the bobsey twins shatskins they give him chickens shit and expect him to make chickens salad

Seriously?

This is probably the best Blue Jays team since 2015, some may argue it has the makings of being better aside from bullpen.

My question is if you know your bullpen is crap why as a manager are you so quick to go to them when you have starters capable of going 7+ innings. If we go look at games the bullpen gave up wins, how many of them would have been different if you left in the starter past 5,6 and 7 innings? Its incredible how inept Montoyo is with his starters and bullpen usage.

Jays can at least be 5-8 games better had the starter been left in longer than he was. Especially Ray and Stripling. Stripling pulled after 5 innings 4 times with a lead and shutout going. Figure that one out.

 

[TGB]

I never get why people bother with those probability graphs. It's no different from someone flip-flopping on their opinion of how a team will do based on short term wins and losses except now someone is graphing their opinion.

Or maybe run diff. means squat.

It does mean something, you just have to know how to read the stats correctly. You have to know WHY there is such a large differential.

Jays should bring him back at a 4yr/88 million contract. 22 mill a season. Should get it done.

He's gonna want a Springer like contract, dude. And it will be 6 years plus no matter what, even if it means a pay cut. If we could get that I'd totally go for it, but we won't. We could always sign with the intent to trade in a few years once some of the other prospects mature, but it's more likely those guys will play poor SS but better 3B or 2B, so I'd rather put that money into one of those younger shortstop free agents.

Going forward we should be emphasizing pitching and defense no matter what since PITCHING is what has made all the difference this season: bullpen is responsible for SO MANY losses and our recent hot streak mainly the result of great starting pitching.

 

[FreeBird]

Seriously?

This is probably the best Blue Jays team since 2015, some may argue it has the makings of being better aside from bullpen.

My question is if you know your bullpen is crap why as a manager are you so quick to go to them when you have starters capable of going 7+ innings. If we go look at games the bullpen gave up wins, how many of them would have been different if you left in the starter past 5,6 and 7 innings? Its incredible how inept Montoyo is with his starters and bullpen usage.

Jays can at least be 5-8 games better had the starter been left in longer than he was. Especially Ray and Stripling. Stripling pulled after 5 innings 4 times with a lead and shutout going. Figure that one out.

did Charlie Aguirre these bums the 27 yankes couldn't win with this bull pen

 

[Puckstuff]

But holds flexibility to play both SS and 2B. He may be better suited to search out a contract that is as a 2B and ask for max money at that position.

Right now its Altuve and everyone else. Altuve is at 29 mill per season and the best 2B in baseball. After him is LeMathieu and a bunch of others 15 million a season and lower. Semien can easily eclipse 20 million per season as a 2B. The same cant be said as a SS where he will be lower in the pecking order.

Jays should bring him back at a 4yr/88 million contract. 22 mill a season. Should get it done.

I think 3 years and 80 million, 4 years and a 100 or 5 years and 115-120 is the range. Anything more then that and I’ll take my chances with Biggio at 2B and hope he rebounds to be a 3+ WAR/162 player at 2B and use the money on pitching. Smith and Espinal also provide good depth. Also really hoping we can get Ramirez or a top tier 3B.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[MS]

Semien's age and K:BB ratios really scare me in terms of a big commitment going forward. This stat tends to be a pretty good predictor of drop-offs in older players as their bat-to-ball skills begin to erode.

In 2019 (his previous big season) he was at 1.17 K:BB ratio. 2021 it's more than doubled to 2.43. That's a huge shift.

He is is already at the outside edge of top producers in terms of age. Of the top 50 guys right now in MLB in offensive WAR, only 5 are born before 1990. Nobody else in the top 15 is older than Semien.

He was a brilliant signing this year. I'm not convinced he'll be a brilliant signing going forward, and you have to sign guys for what they're going to do, not what they already did.

If you have to match 5 years/$120 million or something ... it would be hard as hell to walk away, but I don't see how signing that contract is a good idea. If you do sign him, you definitely want to be pushing for 3 years at a higher AAV.