Blue Jays Discussion: post-deadline, back-at-home edition

[theaub]

Meh... I don't know how to find the actual stats on it without going game-by-game, but Dolis had 5 games this year where he allowed 2+ ER. He started the inning fresh in each of those 5 games.

Considering those 5 appearances account for 65% of the runs he allowed this year, I can't imagine his overall numbers are actually worse when he comes in in the middle of an inning.

Hmm perhaps I am just clouded by his 5 or 6 straight scoreless appearances in July off clean innings (and the 1.1 IP against Boston where he started with no one on/two outs).

I know inherited runners aren't fair to count but even though he only gave up 1 ER against LAA/Nats those weren't good performances.

 

[canucksfan]

Off-season to-do list

1. Replace Montoyo
2. Keep Ray or sign someone equivalent
3. Fix bullpen.
4. Get a 3B. Would be awesome to get Jose Ramirez.
5. Get rid of Grichuk and get a lefty bat in the OF

Don't think there is anything else. The top three are a must.

 

[Cloned]

Off-season to-do list

1. Replace Montoyo
2. Keep Ray or sign someone equivalent
3. Fix bullpen.
4. Get a 3B. Would be awesome to get Jose Ramirez.
5. Get rid of Grichuk and get a lefty bat in the OF

Don't think there is anything else. The top three are a must.

I think they need to sign Semien AND sign a impact 3B/SS.

 

[canucksfan]

I think they need to sign Semien AND sign a impact 3B/SS.

I think it depends. Let's say they acquire Ramirez I don't think Semien would be needed. Espinal/Biggio or even one of the younger guys could play 2nd. Jay's offense would still be one of the best in the league.

I should add, I don't want Biggio at 3B unless it is an emergency.

 

[Cloned]

I think it depends. Let's say they acquire Ramirez I don't think Semien would be needed. Espinal/Biggio or even one of the younger guys could play 2nd. Jay's offense would still be one of the best in the league.

Ideally I’d have Bo playing DH because I simply don’t think his defense is good enough.

 

[Discoverer]

Ideally I’d have Bo playing DH because I simply don’t think his defense is good enough.

Even if you don't think he's a SS, he's clearly good enough to play somewhere defensively. He's not close to being a DH.

 

[Cloned]

Even if you don't think he's a SS, he's clearly good enough to play somewhere defensively. He's not close to being a DH.

He doesn’t have the arm for 3B and if you sign Semien then 2B is taken as well. I guess you could play Semien at SS and Bo at 2B, depending on what Semien says.

The problem with Bo is that his defensive issues come from more than just throwing errors. They also come from misplaying the ball. If it was only throwing errors you could move him to 2B and have shorter throws to minimize his errors. I’m not convinced he’d be good enough defensively at 2B either.

 

[MS]

He doesn’t have the arm for 3B and if you sign Semien then 2B is taken as well. I guess you could play Semien at SS and Bo at 2B, depending on what Semien says.

The problem with Bo is that his defensive issues come from more than just throwing errors. They also come from misplaying the ball. If it was only throwing errors you could move him to 2B and have shorter throws to minimize his errors. I’m not convinced he’d be good enough defensively at 2B either.

He's had a positive defensive WAR in each of his 3 seasons so despite the errors that catch everyone's attention, he seems to be getting to enough balls to make him a solid fielder at SS.

 

[Cloned]

He's had a positive defensive WAR in each of his 3 seasons so despite the errors that catch everyone's attention, he seems to be getting to enough balls to make him a solid fielder at SS.

It might be a case of observational bias against him but I still think we need someone more consistent defensively at SS.

 

[MS]

It might be a case of observational bias against him but I still think we need someone more consistent defensively at SS.

I feel like it's observational bias? The numbers certainly don't say that he's poor defensively.

The team needs to max out value at every position. If you have a guy capable of putting up 6 WAR as a 'defensively average' SS, you don't turn him into a 2.5 WAR DH when you could just be sticking some lardass slugger in that spot with the same results. Guys with his sort of bat who can even tread water defensively at SS are incredibly rare.

 

[Vector]

Or don't get a DH and use it as they are now. Rotating out players to give them a day off in the field but keep the bat in the lineup.

 

[Cloned]

I feel like it's observational bias? The numbers certainly don't say that he's poor defensively.

The team needs to max out value at every position. If you have a guy capable of putting up 6 WAR as a 'defensively average' SS, you don't turn him into a 2.5 WAR DH when you could just be sticking some lardass slugger in that spot with the same results. Guys with his sort of bat who can even tread water defensively at SS are incredibly rare.

Depends. If you can shift players around to get 10+ WAR plus good defense on the left side of the infield, then shifting Bo to DH might be worth it.

 

[MS]

Depends. If you can shift players around to get 10+ WAR plus good defense on the left side of the infield, then shifting Bo to DH might be worth it.

This would be borderline impossible.

There are like 5 guys in baseball capable of putting up a 6 WAR season at SS which is what Bichette has done/162 games to start his career.

There are a million guys capable of putting up a 125 OPS+ as a DH and getting 2 WAR for it. Putting Bichette at DH would be a colossal waste of an extremely special asset.

 

[Cloned]

This would be borderline impossible.

There are like 5 guys in baseball capable of putting up a 6 WAR season at SS which is what Bichette has done/162 games to start his career.

There are a million guys capable of putting up a 125 OPS+ as a DH and getting 2 WAR for it. Putting Bichette at DH would be a colossal waste of an extremely special asset.

If you could get 4+4 from your 3B+SS combined with great defense I think it might be worth it to shift. It’s not like you’re trading/subtracting Bichette entirely to make it happen. You’re still keeping his best attribute (his bat) in the lineup.

 

[MS]

If you could get 4+4 from your 3B+SS combined with great defense I think it might be worth it to shift. It’s not like you’re trading/subtracting Bichette entirely to make it happen. You’re still keeping his best attribute (his bat) in the lineup.

But ... this doesn't make sense?

Getting 4 WAR with 'good defense' out of the SS position is substantially worse than getting 6 WAR including average defense. This makes the team worse.

It's far, far, far easier to get a bat to slug as the DH than it is to find another quality SS when you already have a 6 WAR guy in place.

 

[Cloned]

But ... this doesn't make sense?

Getting 4 WAR with 'good defense' out of the SS position is substantially worse than getting 6 WAR including average defense. This makes the team worse.

It's far, far, far easier to get a bat to slug as the DH than it is to find another quality SS when you already have a 6 WAR guy in place.

This is still coming from the perspective of subtracting Bichette entirely, which we aren’t doing. You’re not subtracting his 6 WAR entirely, you’re shifting part of it to DH and adding another good to great player at SS which makes up the difference offensively but provides better defense.

 

[Bjindaho]

This is still coming from the perspective of subtracting Bichette entirely, which we aren’t doing. You’re not subtracting his 6 WAR entirely, you’re shifting part of it to DH and adding another good to great player at SS which makes up the difference offensively but provides better defense.

But he's a 2 WAR DH.

Or we could rotate it, get about 2 WAR and not lose production.

4 isn't better than 6

 

[MS]

This is still coming from the perspective of subtracting Bichette entirely, which we aren’t doing. You’re not subtracting his 6 WAR entirely, you’re shifting part of it to DH and adding another good to great player at SS which makes up the difference offensively but provides better defense.

Shifting Bichette to DH turns a 6 WAR asset into like a 2-3 WAR asset. Plus would be horrific from a clubhouse perspective as you'd be creating a very unhappy core star player. What you're suggesting would be subtracting WAR from the lineup while costing more money (presumably this new 'good to great SS' would not be here next year internally).

Holy hell 2 HR as I'm typing this.

 

[Bjindaho]

Also, if Semien signs long term, he plays SS and Bo plays 2B

 

[Cloned]

But he's a 2 WAR DH.

Or we could rotate it, get about 2 WAR and not lose production.

4 isn't better than 6

Shifting Bichette to DH turns a 6 WAR asset into like a 2-3 WAR asset. Plus would be horrific from a clubhouse perspective as you'd be creating a very unhappy core star player. What you're suggesting would be subtracting WAR from the lineup while costing more money (presumably this new 'good to great SS' would not be here next year internally).

Holy hell 2 HR as I'm typing this.

It’s about total WAR and overall defense in the lineup. What I’m suggesting is you shift part of Bichette’s WAR to DH and add another SS so that the combo exceeds the WAR you had before the shift.

Money/cost shouldn’t be an issue with a team on the verge of contending for multiple championships, and if it is then that’s a separate problem entirely.

 

[MS]

It’s about total WAR and overall defense in the lineup. What I’m suggesting is you shift part of Bichette’s WAR to DH and add another SS so that the combo exceeds the WAR you had before the shift.

Money/cost shouldn’t be an issue with a team on the verge of winning multiple championships, and if it is then that’s a separate problem entirely.

Money/cost is an issue for every team.

Bichette (6 WAR) + some 2 WAR slugger at DH = 8 WAR for peanuts.

New SS (4 WAR) + Bichette at DH (3 WAR) = 7 WAR and that 4 WAR SS is going to cost an arm and a leg in free agency.

You're advocating paying more for less, and making one of the most important assets in the organization miserable at the same time.

 

[Cloned]

Money/cost is an issue for every team.

Bichette (6 WAR) + some 2 WAR slugger at DH = 8 WAR for peanuts.

New SS (4 WAR) + Bichette at DH (3 WAR) = 7 WAR and that 4 WAR SS is going to cost an arm and a leg in free agency.

You're advocating paying more for less, and making one of the most important assets in the organization miserable at the same time.

A 2 WAR DH isn’t completely trivial though. I might trade a 0.5 to 1 WAR total difference if it means I get great defense at SS.

 

[zeke]

Three very good SP pitching well pulled at <90 pitches with a bullpen in tatters.
Utterly baffling.

 

[MS]

A 2 WAR DH isn’t completely trivial though. I might trade a 0.5 to 1 WAR total difference if it means I get great defense at SS.

But the defense is built into the WAR calculation. 'Better defense' means nothing if you're getting less value from the position and less value overall.

And again, moving a 23 y/o superstar asset to DH is basically going to run him out of town at the first opportunity.

 

[Cloned]

But the defense is built into the WAR calculation. 'Better defense' means nothing if you're getting less value from the position and less value overall.

And again, moving a 23 y/o superstar asset to DH is basically going to run him out of town at the first opportunity.

If we are talking total WAR I’d be looking for a 5+ WAR player on the left side of the infield.

If you still pay him I don’t think it’d matter. I don’t think these concerns were brought up nearly as much when it was suggested to shift Vlad to DH.

Besides it’s not like he’d get zero starts at SS. I just don’t think he’s consistent enough defensively to play there for 162 games.