Blue Jays Discussion: post-deadline, back-at-home edition

[Bjindaho]

Really? Valera has been pretty good for us, no?

He's been around replacement level. He's been our 2nd best 3B defensively (but profiles SIGNIFICANTLY below Smith and Lopez). He's been slightly better at 2B, but again both profile better.

Offensively, his complete lack of power makes him average at best when he is hot, and unplayable when he isn't. To put things in perspective, the only players on the entire roster that he has a higher wRC+ than are Riley Adams (who looked overmatched when he was here as emergency 4th catcher) and Jonathan Davis (who did it on a .143 average).

So in summary, he's a utility guy who can only play 2 positions (better than Panik and his one though), but whose complete lack of power (and 2% walk rate) make him a liability at the dish. What is driving the calls to not have a Valera (and previously Panik), on the other hand, is that Espinal profiles as an exceptional utlity infielder being elite at 3rd, very good at SS, and presumably elite at 2nd. Add to that that Kevin Smith has earned the shot to not only be called up, but to play 3B every day.

The other thing here is that we will likely bring Biggio back soon, option Lopez in his spot and have Biggio act as our 4th OF/backup 2B for a while (ie a better version of Valera)

 

[ShaneFalco]

He's been around replacement level. He's been our 2nd best 3B defensively (but profiles SIGNIFICANTLY below Smith and Lopez). He's been slightly better at 2B, but again both profile better.

Offensively, his complete lack of power makes him average at best when he is hot, and unplayable when he isn't. To put things in perspective, the only players on the entire roster that he has a higher wRC+ than are Riley Adams (who looked overmatched when he was here as emergency 4th catcher) and Jonathan Davis (who did it on a .143 average).

So in summary, he's a utility guy who can only play 2 positions (better than Panik and his one though), but whose complete lack of power (and 2% walk rate) make him a liability at the dish. What is driving the calls to not have a Valera (and previously Panik), on the other hand, is that Espinal profiles as an exceptional utlity infielder being elite at 3rd, very good at SS, and presumably elite at 2nd. Add to that that Kevin Smith has earned the shot to not only be called up, but to play 3B every day.

The other thing here is that we will likely bring Biggio back soon, option Lopez in his spot and have Biggio act as our 4th OF/backup 2B for a while (ie a better version of Valera)

Thanks!

 

[WeThreeKings]

How many games realistically would we have one with a replacement level tactical coach/bench manager vs. Charlie?

 

[Bjindaho]

How many games realistically would we have one with a replacement level tactical coach/bench manager vs. Charlie?

That is much harder to quantify.

We know that Charlie's decisions have directly led to losses, but we do not know if dumb luck (stupid Kevin Cash) might have saved him in other situations.

The problem with Charlie's decisions is that the Jays have been losing a lot of close games, which amplify all of his dominated strategies (a dominated strategy is one which is always the incorrect play, such as passing up the orange properties in Monopoly because you might have a shot at Boardwalk).

 

[canucksfan]

Likely gone a few weeks

 

[WeThreeKings]

Likely gone a few weeks

 

[phillipmike]

On July 28th the Jays were 50-48, 10.5 GBs of the division and 4.5 GBs of WC2 and 8.0 GBs of WC1.

After going 10-2 the Jays were 60-50, 7.0 GBs of the division, 3.0 GBs of WC2 and 4.0 GBs of WC1.

After going 3-6, the Jays are 63-55, 9.0 GBs of the division, and are 4.0 GBs of both WC1 and WC2.

So we are in a worse position for the division, but pretty much in the same position regarding the WC as we were after the Boston series which is still a positive because it could be much worse. 4 GBs with 44 games left is nothing.

But it matters what they do in those 44 games. What probably hurts more than the losses is the injuries to Springer, Stripling, Mayza and now likely Bichette in these last 9 games.

Even in these last 9 games they have a run differential of -2. So even if they played true to that they should have gotten at least 1 more win.

Still positive upsides but the Jays need to turn it around quickly.

 

[Vector]

 

[Discoverer]

That is much harder to quantify.

We know that Charlie's decisions have directly led to losses, but we do not know if dumb luck (stupid Kevin Cash) might have saved him in other situations.

The problem with Charlie's decisions is that the Jays have been losing a lot of close games, which amplify all of his dominated strategies (a dominated strategy is one which is always the incorrect play, such as passing up the orange properties in Monopoly because you might have a shot at Boardwalk).

I think that's an important part a lot of people ignore when we hear stuff like "The Jays would have at least 10-15 more wins with a decent manager!" It's based on the assumption that A) everything that Montoyo did right (or that worked out well even though it seemed dumb), a "good" manager would have done the same way with the same results, and B) within those "bad decision" losses, the result would automatically be a win if you just change the one decision.

Ultimately, you're probably looking at a few extra wins at most.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

On July 28th the Jays were 50-48, 10.5 GBs of the division and 4.5 GBs of WC2 and 8.0 GBs of WC1.

After going 10-2 the Jays were 60-50, 7.0 GBs of the division, 3.0 GBs of WC2 and 4.0 GBs of WC1.

After going 3-6, the Jays are 63-55, 9.0 GBs of the division, and are 4.0 GBs of both WC1 and WC2.

So we are in a worse position for the division, but pretty much in the same position regarding the WC as we were after the Boston series which is still a positive because it could be much worse. 4 GBs with 44 games left is nothing.

But it matters what they do in those 44 games. What probably hurts more than the losses is the injuries to Springer, Stripling, Mayza and now likely Bichette in these last 9 games.

Even in these last 9 games they have a run differential of -2. So even if they played true to that they should have gotten at least 1 more win.

Still positive upsides but the Jays need to turn it around quickly.

True, except you have to take into account games remaining too.

X games back with 45 games left is worse than X games back with 65 games left.

I think that makes sense? Either way, not out of it by any means.

 

[phillipmike]

True, except you have to take into account games remaining too.

X games back with 45 games left is worse than X games back with 65 games left.

I think that makes sense? Either way, not out of it by any means.

Yes you are 100% right. Less games means less opportunities to catch them but in the end it’s not a big deal if they win and win against the Yankees and Oakland. But on the contrary, it’s hard to see them when against the Yankees and Oakland when they struggle to beat LAA, Seattle and Washington.

Jays playoff odds:

July 28th: 24%
August 9th: 49%
Today: 21%

 

[VanillaCoke]

Gotta be 3/4 weeks minimum for springer

 

[canucksfan]

 

[BlueForever75]

Manoah on Bereavement list speaks to how poorly he pitched yesterday. He must have know things werent good with a loved one prior to his start. Bad on Jays for letting him pitch it showed in his outing.

 

[Morgs]

As much as we all shit on Dolis (and I f***ing can't stand the human rain delay) there is something there when he's on. Shown multiple times he has the ability to get guys out. Someone will take a chance on him, but I hope it's not an AL team. I never want to see another hour long half inning with only like 16 pitches thrown.

 

[Discoverer]

Manoah on Bereavement list speaks to how poorly he pitched yesterday. He must have know things werent good with a loved one prior to his start. Bad on Jays for letting him pitch it showed in his outing.

For one thing, we know nothing about the situation with Manoah. But more importantly, players and teams do this aaaaall the time, and it's usually because the player pushes to play.

 

[canucksfan]

 

[trellaine201]

Gotta be 3/4 weeks minimum for springer

The quote no timeline tells us all we need to know. It will be awhile. I say a month.

 

[MS]

As much as we all shit on Dolis (and I f***ing can't stand the human rain delay) there is something there when he's on. Shown multiple times he has the ability to get guys out. Someone will take a chance on him, but I hope it's not an AL team. I never want to see another hour long half inning with only like 16 pitches thrown.

His pitches definitely have movement and life ... but if you can't throw strikes, you can't be an effective MLB pitcher.

Sean Reid-Foley had great stuff and could be dominant on the right day or even for stretches here and there but in the bigger picture had the exact same problem.

 

[The Nemesis]

Dolis DFA?

 

[theaub]

As much as we all shit on Dolis (and I f***ing can't stand the human rain delay) there is something there when he's on. Shown multiple times he has the ability to get guys out. Someone will take a chance on him, but I hope it's not an AL team. I never want to see another hour long half inning with only like 16 pitches thrown.

Dolis was a lot better when pitching in fresh innings, and I'm pretty sure a competent manager can get away with using his 7th best reliever only in fresh inning situations.

Meanwhile our guy brings him in with the bases loaded in a two run game and he gets DFA'd the next day?

 

[ryno23]

Dolis was a lot better when pitching in fresh innings, and I'm pretty sure a competent manager can get away with using his 7th best reliever only in fresh inning situations.

Meanwhile, our guy brings him in with the bases loaded in a two-run game and he gets DFA'd the next day?

That to me speaks how Charlie doesn't really know his pitchers both starting and relief guys. If you see Dolis always struggle with command coming into a game mid-inning and runners on then why put him into failing over and over again. If you see some guys able to snuff out a rally mid-inning use them and let Dolis start the next inning fresh.

 

[The Nemesis]

Dolis was a lot better when pitching in fresh innings, and I'm pretty sure a competent manager can get away with using his 7th best reliever only in fresh inning situations.

Meanwhile our guy brings him in with the bases loaded in a two run game and he gets DFA'd the next day?

This kind of feels like the Panik DFA. Like management is essentially saving Charlie from himself by taking away his common fallbacks that lead to dumb decisions.

 

[Emerica]

thank f***

 

[Discoverer]

Dolis was a lot better when pitching in fresh innings, and I'm pretty sure a competent manager can get away with using his 7th best reliever only in fresh inning situations.

Meanwhile our guy brings him in with the bases loaded in a two run game and he gets DFA'd the next day?

Meh... I don't know how to find the actual stats on it without going game-by-game, but Dolis had 5 games this year where he allowed 2+ ER. He started the inning fresh in each of those 5 games.

Considering those 5 appearances account for 65% of the runs he allowed this year, I can't imagine his overall numbers are actually worse when he comes in in the middle of an inning.