Playoff Race Thread

[Stephen]

I'll just copy-paste what I said earlier:
Injuries almost always have a negative impact, listing a few exceptions doesn't change that simple fact. If you think injuries don't matter, you may as well say that who the players are on the roster doesn't matter. That would be pretty dumb though wouldn't it?

You're right, but a team that wants to be a championship caliber team needs to rise to the occasion. "Next man up" mentality, weather the storm and then be even stronger when the healthy players come back because all the rookies and bottom six guys will have had reps in more key positions.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Thats managements problem then. The Raptors now have one of the best scouting departments in the NBA. Injuries hit and the young guys come in and are crushing it, how come the Leafs who are also under the MLSE umbrella not able to scout and draft like the Raptors?

Your right it would be dumb to consider the rosters of random players the same as legit stars. Problem is the leafs have zero depth. So what the argument of injuries tell me is the Leafs need every player to be healthy and not have a down year to win a championship? Look at all the recent championships in all 4 major North American sports and almost none of them stayed fully healthy. They all found a diamond in the rough who absolutely dominated. If the leafs dont have that then aside from a rare fully healthy and career type years they will never win.

The NHL didnt really know who Binnington was until last year
The NBA didnt really know who Siakim was until last year

Almost no team in pro sports has been able to do what the Raptors are doing, hard to hold the Leafs to that standard.

We have depth, just not at all positions. Are there any teams that have depth at all positions?

The Raptors were pretty healthy last season when they won, that's a recent example right there.

 

[Vaive50]

So the last 5 games were all against teams that would be out of the playoffs if the season ended today. 4 of whom truely aren't in contention to make it. Their record was 1-2-2 without a RW. These are the weeks that you look back at in April as wasted opportunities.

The teams that are out of the playoffs at this point are always tough to play as they love playing spoiler or they are fighting for any chance of making the playoffs (Panthers, Habs & Rags). The Leafs were very famous with that for many years after the 2005 lockout season, that's why they could never get a high draft pick.

The Devils beat the Flyers 5-0 Thursday night and then the Flyers embarrassed the Caps 7-2 last night (many other examples). Weird things happen, this isn't the WWE, where they know who's going to win before the match starts.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Massing injuries are a part of the game.

Yes, and they affect the outcome.

Granted, a younger team is going to have a harder time fighting through that than a veteran club with experience, but look at Pittsburgh. Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Hornqvist, Letang, Rust, Schultz all miss time

I disagree that Pittsburgh has faced more impactful injuries than Toronto this year, but even if they had, individual examples of teams beating the trend over small samples is not representative of the trend.

Murray is a tire fire in goal and they are battling for a division title.

Murray has been better than our backups, and they also have another goalie playing half of their games who is playing at Vezina-quality level, so a little misrepresentative of their situation. All strengths, Pittsburgh is 9th in team save percentage and Toronto is 24th.

 

[Menzinger]

The mood adound here is always strange.

The team took 3/4 points on back to back games while their backup played both. In most scenarios, that would considered to be positive thing...

 

[Gary Nylund]

You're right, but a team that wants to be a championship caliber team needs to rise to the occasion.

Every team that wins rises to the occasion but usually teams that win titles aren't plagued by injuries. This season isn't done yet, if we make the playoffs, If Rielly comes back 100% healthy and rounds into game shape quickly and everyone else is healthy and Andersen finds his game again we could still win the cup this season. A long shot sure but then, every team is a long shot, that's just the way the NHL is. We're 13th overall, with all our injuries that's not so bad. We're only 2 points behind NYI in 6th which is where we've been the last couple of years (yes they have 3 games in hand), one winning streak and we could be in 6th place again.

Too early do a postmortem at any rate, it ain't over yet.

 

[Vaive50]

Kadri and Gardiner had to go, but the error was in what we got back in the Kadri trade. Barrie is a disaster.

Barrie is not what we expected but he is better than Gardiner. Maybe if we had last years Reilly playing, he could have been better. When Reilly does come back in mid-March, hopefully he'll have also healed the injury that was bugging him all season long.

 

[NinjaKick]

we got this shit... this team is too good to not be in the playoffs

GO LEAFS!

 

[Gallagbi]

The mood adound here is always strange.

The team took 3/4 points on back to back games while their backup played both. In most scenarios, that would considered to be positive thing...

We took 3 of 8 available points this week and didn't play a strong team. It's been a rough 7 days, especially with 4 blown leads and 3 in the 3rd period

 

[cbbb25]

Almost no team in pro sports has been able to do what the Raptors are doing, hard to hold the Leafs to that standard.

We have depth, just not at all positions. Are there any teams that have depth at all positions?

The Raptors were pretty healthy last season when they won, that's a recent example right there.

Agree to disagree haha. I think what irritates me is Leafs fan talk so much crap all summer about how this years going to be different and when it doesnt happen its X fault. Its refs fault, its injuries, its coach, its scheduling. Every fan base complains like that. Im a big Bills fan and a blocking penalty altered the playoff game against Houston. I dont complain though because the Bills clearly werent good enough if one play decided the game. Other fans were livid and said we would have won if that ref didnt call a non-penalty

Ill admit though a few calls have actually changed the outcomes of games, but as far as I know the Leafs have never had a New Orleans type illegal hit or Foot in the crease (depending on your view whether Buffalo or Dallas)

 

[Warden of the North]

Barrie is not what we expected but he is better than Gardiner. Maybe if we had last years Reilly playing, he could have been better. When Reilly does come back in mid-March, hopefully he'll have also healed the injury that was bugging him all season long.

I dont think hes any better then Gardiner was at his best. In fact Id day hes worse then Gardiners best years

 

[Stephen]

Yes, and they affect the outcome.

I disagree that Pittsburgh has faced more impactful injuries than Toronto this year, but even if they had, individual examples of teams beating the trend over small samples is not representative of the trend.

Murray has been better than our backups, and they also have another goalie playing half of their games who is playing at Vezina-quality level, so a little misrepresentative of their situation. All strengths, Pittsburgh is 9th in team save percentage and Toronto is 24th.

Crosby missing half the season is not a small sample size. Malkin and Hornqist missing a dozen games is not a small sample size. Guentzel being out the rest of the season.

Yes, Murray has been terrible, but it's Jarry the backup who has stepped in in an emergency, underscoring my point.

 

[Stephen]

Agree to disagree haha. I think what irritates me is Leafs fan talk so much crap all summer about how this years going to be different and when it doesnt happen its X fault. Its refs fault, its injuries, its coach, its scheduling. Every fan base complains like that. Im a big Bills fan and a blocking penalty altered the playoff game against Houston. I dont complain though because the Bills clearly werent good enough if one play decided the game. Other fans were livid and said we would have won if that ref didnt call a non-penalty

Ill admit though a few calls have actually changed the outcomes of games, but as far as I know the Leafs have never had a New Orleans type illegal hit or Foot in the crease (depending on your view whether Buffalo or Dallas)

I don't understand why fans want to comfort themselves with excuses when the team should be rising to the occasion and getting better internally through crisis and coming out stronger the other end.

If a season is supposed to just be the sum of all the misfortune suffered, why bother watching/playing?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Agree to disagree haha. I think what irritates me is Leafs fan talk so much crap all summer about how this years going to be different and when it doesnt happen its X fault. Its refs fault, its injuries, its coach, its scheduling. Every fan base complains like that. Im a big Bills fan and a blocking penalty altered the playoff game against Houston. I dont complain though because the Bills clearly werent good enough if one play decided the game. Other fans were livid and said we would have won if that ref didnt call a non-penalty

Ill admit though a few calls have actually changed the outcomes of games, but as far as I know the Leafs have never had a New Orleans type illegal hit or Foot in the crease (depending on your view whether Buffalo or Dallas)

I haven't said a word about bad calls. We've had a ton of injuries, that's a fact. Three main reasons IMO for our poor season, in no particular order:

1 - Not firing Babcock in the summer.
2 - Injuries
3 - Goaltending

Despite all that, we're still 13th overall, not too far from 6th overall. Not sure why people are acting like we're 26th overall and the season's all but over, that's just not the way it is.

Didn't TB miss the playoffs as a result of injuries on season not too long ago?

 

[namttebih]

The teams that are out of the playoffs at this point are always tough to play as they love playing spoiler or they are fighting for any chance of making the playoffs (Panthers, Habs & Rags). The Leafs were very famous with that for many years after the 2005 lockout season, that's why they could never get a high draft pick.

The Devils beat the Flyers 5-0 Thursday night and then the Flyers embarrassed the Caps 7-2 last night (many other examples). Weird things happen, this isn't the WWE, where they know who's going to win before the match starts.

That's fine if these lapses only happen a couple of times a season. Real contenders don't lose like we've been losing with any regularity.

 

[Vaive50]

I dont think hes any better then Gardiner was at his best. In fact Id day hes worse then Gardiners best years

Maybe so, but we're looking at how it is in todays world, would we be better off today with Gardiner or Barrie. Personally I don't think it is much of a difference, they both are famous for too many give-aways and are both good offensively. What we are really missing is last years Reilly (72 points and +24). Having that Reilly all season long would have made a difference in at least a few of our losses which would have us comfortably in a playoff position. Let's hope he heals his lingering injury when he comes back.

 

[Warden of the North]

Maybe so, but we're looking at how it is in todays world, would we be better off today with Gardiner or Barrie. Personally I don't think it is much of a difference, they both are famous for too many give-aways and are both good offensively. What we are really missing is last years Reilly (72 points and +24). Having that Reilly all season long would have made a difference in at least a few of our losses which would have us comfortably in a playoff position. Let's hope he heals his lingering injury when he comes back.

Agreed. And its starting to get annoying how fans and media alike are just completely ignoring the impact of losing our 1D.

 

[yubbers]

The mood adound here is always strange.

The team took 3/4 points on back to back games while their backup played both. In most scenarios, that would considered to be positive thing...

If we ignore context sure. Bottom west team on a B2B. Piss away a 3rd-period lead and sneak out the 2. Bottom east team. Piss away a 3rd period lead. Lose in OT.

Those 4 points should've been a walk. We're getting into the thick of it now. Games will get progressively heavier. I don't see that going well for us.

 

[Vaive50]

That's fine if these lapses only happen a couple of times a season. Real contenders don't lose like we've been losing with any regularity.

We are 20-9-4 with Keefe and now that we have found a great back-up and a player who isn't scared to drop the gloves, I do think that things will get better.

But then when you talk about defining a real contender, lets look at last season when it was basically known that Tampa would win the cup but then got swept in the first round by a team who struggled to make the playoffs and had never won a playoff round before. Calgary and Nashville were also taken out in the first round.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

As long as we keep plugging through this and keep getting enough points to take the seed I don’t care how ugly wins are. On the injuries discussion going on, no excuses demeanour does not mean that they aren’t having a negative effect on our lineup. The biggest injury that has hampered us is Mikheyev and possibly Johnsson. The work Mikheyev was doing was really helping us. Big loss!

Something that maybe posters have missed is that secondary scoring has been abysmal for a long stretch here. Tavares and Matthews,Nylander and Marner have been carrying this team for over 30 games now.kapanen,Johnsson,Kerfoot,Engvall,Tima all have disappeared going way to long now (30 games each)

A little statistical example: going back 30 games including all the games Johnsson missed this is our secondary scoring during that period.

Kappy—- 3 goals
Kerfoot—3 goals
Johnsson 2 goals missed 15 games in that period
Engvall—6 goals
Mikheyev 4 goals has missed 17 games
Spezza —-6 goals

24 goals from 6 players over the last 30 games. Sure injuries are a equation but is this enough. There are some concerns for me looking at this pretty good sample size. Like i said there are injuries in there that effects this.

whats the excuse for Kerfoot,Kapanen and Engvall? Especially Kappy and Kerfoot. I think it is a finger that needs pointing because it is the body of work of these players for Keefe’s entire tenure so far?????

 

[Dekes For Days]

Crosby missing half the season is not a small sample size. Malkin and Hornqist missing a dozen games is not a small sample size. Guentzel being out the rest of the season.

Crosby did not miss half of a season, and yes, drawing conclusions from team records over these small sample sizes is problematic, especially when considering none of the other impacting factors. Leafs have faced more injury difficulty than Pittsburgh this season, and that doesn't even count those who were playing through injury. Much like Pittsburgh, Toronto has played well throughout these constant injuries, and we have had players step up into roles that we never would have expected from them and do well. Unlike Pittsburgh, Toronto has received horrible goaltending for almost the whole duration of that time, which has a significant impact on record; a record that has not even been that bad for the Leafs.

Yes, Murray has been terrible, but it's Jarry the backup who has stepped in in an emergency, underscoring my point.

What's your point? They have a goaltender that was on their roster from the start playing half of their games and playing like a Vezina winner. That does wonders for covering for injury issues.

 

[Stephen]

Crosby did not miss half of a season, and yes, drawing conclusions from team records over these small sample sizes is problematic, especially when considering none of the other impacting factors. Leafs have faced more injury difficulty than Pittsburgh this season, and that doesn't even count those who were playing through injury. Much like Pittsburgh, Toronto has played well throughout these constant injuries, and we have had players step up into roles that we never would have expected from them and do well. Unlike Pittsburgh, Toronto has received horrible goaltending for almost the whole duration of that time, which has a significant impact on record; a record that has not even been that bad for the Leafs.

What's your point? They have a goaltender that was on their roster from the start playing half of their games and playing like a Vezina winner. That does wonders for covering for injury issues.

26 games played out of 56 is 46% is half a season.

 

[Dekes For Days]

26 games played out of 56 is 46% is half a season.

I meant over a full season. Point remains that injuries have impacts; regardless of how a select few teams do with different injuries in small samples due primarily to other factors.

 

[Nylander88]

The mood adound here is always strange.

The team took 3/4 points on back to back games while their backup played both. In most scenarios, that would considered to be positive thing...

Think it's more the atrocious 3rd periods than points. You could easily argue we didn't deserve either game at all. But yes the points are boss here. We have been playing concerning hockey though lately

 

[Gabriel426]

The mood adound here is always strange.

The team took 3/4 points on back to back games while their backup played both. In most scenarios, that would considered to be positive thing...

This is Leafs Nation, even if they won last night, some will say getting 4 out of 8 points in the last four games is not playoff caliber.