Playoff Race Thread

[Dekes For Days]

Maybe the Florida game messed up their mind. They play scared in the 3rd.

The fanbase and media tend to overreact to bad goaltending, erroneously blaming it on the defense and defensive structure, which results in the Leafs tightening up when they have a lead in the 3rd, playing to their weaknesses, instead of playing to their strengths and keeping the pressure on.

Also, they were dead tired. Back to back; OT last night + travel. 4 games in 6 nights. Came out hard for the first 40 minutes. 3 out of 4 points is pretty good.

 

[Warden of the North]

Im not as angry as I feel I should be.

Playoffs still within reach. If this is our rough stretch, were still picking up points.

Things will get better.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

......what the hell happened to Vegas in the 3rd???

Edit: Reimer gave it right back

 

[Dekes For Days]

The 3rd period in that Vegas-Carolina game made the Leaf's 3rd period look like trap-era Devils.

 

[member 300185]

I'm ready to accept any trade involving Johnsson, Kapenen, Gauthier or any of the bottom 6 really and picks and prospects for a stud D man. We currently have 9 million in cap space as long as Rielly, Ceci and soup remain on the LtiR.

We are one stud D from being solid.

Marincin has and always will find a way to hurt this team.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Kinda surprised we're still in the thick of things.

 

[DitchMarner]

All they need to do is stay ahead of FLA and MTL (basically a given as far as the latter is concerned) and they'll make the playoffs (even if they finish with fewer points than the first team below the second Wild Card spot). I'm not too confident at this point that TOR will finish with more points than any of CLB, NYI, PHI or CAR.

Florida has a long history of failure and is slumping lately. Just beat out that team.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I'm having a hard time understanding something. At the beginning of the year, did anyone think that at this point of the season we would be fighting for a playoff spot? Generally I understood that the consensus for the most part was minimum "first round win or bust".

Have our expectations been lowered this much?

 

[Vaive50]

All they need to do is stay ahead of FLA and MTL (basically a given as far as the latter is concerned) and they'll make the playoffs (even if they finish with fewer points than the first team below the second Wild Card spot). I'm not too confident at this point that TOR will finish with more points than any of CLB, NYI, PHI or CAR.

Florida has a long history of failure and is slumping lately. Just beat out that team.

I feel the same but I do think that the Leafs can also have more points than the WC spots. I do think that the Leafs will figure this out (how to play for 60 minutes and not 41) and go on another winning streak, Willy will be back most likely on Tuesday, the 3 losses were all due to only one bad period. Let's remember that before this week, the Leafs were one of the best teams when leading after 2 with only 1 regulation loss and now 2.

The Panthers game, going into the third playing great up 2-1 and outshooting them 27-11, then scored to start the 3rd but sucked the rest of the period.

The Rangers game was all over in the first when they let the Rags score 2 goals in 6 seconds. But they were the better team the next 2 periods outscoring the Rags 2-1.

Last night was almost exactly the same as the Panthers game, after 2 they were outshooting them 21-11, scored early in the 3rd and then stunk for the rest of the 3rd and OT being outshot 19-2.

They are a great team, they can play for 60 minutes, they did go 9-0-1 for 10 games beating some good teams in that run including St. Louis and Avs. I honestly believe they will figure this (playing for 60 minutes) out.

 

[mikeyz]

I'm having a hard time understanding something. At the beginning of the year, did anyone think that at this point of the season we would be fighting for a playoff spot? Generally I understood that the consensus for the most part was minimum "first round win or bust".

Have our expectations been lowered this much?

A buddy of mine actually predicted this. He said that they would be touch and go to make the playoffs. I thought he was absolutely insane at the time. But he’s being proven right.

He said he didn’t like the moves Dubas made last summer. He thought they got MUCH worse and Ceci and Barrie were a downgrade over Zaitsev, Hainsey and Gardiner, especially defensively and that Kerfoot was a MAJOR downgrade over Kadri.

 

[Dekes For Days]

At the beginning of the year, did anyone think that at this point of the season we would be fighting for a playoff spot?

Did anybody except all of Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Kapanen, Hyman, Rielly, Mikyehev, Kerfoot, Johnsson, Muzzin, Dermott, Ceci, and Andersen to miss time, and have the goaltending fall off a cliff despite improved defensive metrics?

 

[cbbb25]

Did anybody except all of Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Kapanen, Hyman, Rielly, Mikyehev, Kerfoot, Johnsson, Muzzin, Dermott, Ceci, and Andersen to miss time, and have the goaltending fall off a cliff despite improved defensive metrics?

This is a weak argument because Boston last year had just as many injuries and were never in trouble of making it. Good contending teams find ways to win with injuries. We dont even have to look far, check out what the Raptors are doing 39-14 and 14 game winning streak and theyve only had everyone healthy for a few games this year.

 

[theTTC]

I'm having a hard time understanding something. At the beginning of the year, did anyone think that at this point of the season we would be fighting for a playoff spot? Generally I understood that the consensus for the most part was minimum "first round win or bust".

Have our expectations been lowered this much?

Near beginning of this season Babcock was reminding everyone, first we have to make the playoffs.

 

[Gabriel426]

I'm having a hard time understanding something. At the beginning of the year, did anyone think that at this point of the season we would be fighting for a playoff spot? Generally I understood that the consensus for the most part was minimum "first round win or bust".

Have our expectations been lowered this much?

Expectations change with the way the team is playing. If the Leafs is first in the league, it will be Cup or bust.

 

[justafan22]

They'd be 4th in the west by points and FIRST in the pacific division. It'll be a fight with florida for the 3rd spot IMO

 

[Stephen]

Did anybody except all of Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Kapanen, Hyman, Rielly, Mikyehev, Kerfoot, Johnsson, Muzzin, Dermott, Ceci, and Andersen to miss time, and have the goaltending fall off a cliff despite improved defensive metrics?

It's not uncommon for NHL teams to have significant injuries.

 

[Gary Nylund]

This is a weak argument because Boston last year had just as many injuries and were never in trouble of making it. Good contending teams find ways to win with injuries. We dont even have to look far, check out what the Raptors are doing 39-14 and 14 game winning streak and theyve only had everyone healthy for a few games this year.

Injuries almost always have a negative impact, listing a few exceptions doesn't change that simple fact. If you think injuries don't matter, you may as well say that who the players are on the roster doesn't matter. That would be pretty dumb though wouldn't it?

 

[Dekes For Days]

This is a weak argument because Boston last year had just as many injuries and were never in trouble of making it.

First off, just because another team did something, it doesn't negate the impact it has on a different team. There are countless examples of way less injuries than we have had impacting teams significantly.

Second, Boston didn't have the same injury impact as we have had. All injuries are not created equal, and a lot depends on what depth you happen to have at that position, who you face during those times, how others perform during that time (for example, goaltending), etc. Leafs have dealt with horrible goaltending at the same time, while Boston did not.

Third, there is a good argument that it did affect them, considering how they did in 2017-2018, how they are doing this year, and how they did with a healthy roster in the playoffs. The competition for a playoff spot was also much less last year.

Fourth, we are talking about internal comparisons. How we were expected to do this year was based on how we did other years. Fact is, this year is the first where we have faced anywhere close to this level of injury impact.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's not uncommon for NHL teams to have significant injuries.

It is uncommon for NHL teams to have injuries to that extent to key roles like that, and it does impact them, especially as a young team that has already had much of the developed farm system graduate in recent years.

The fact that we have received bottom of the league goaltending at the same time heavily exacerbates this issue. These are two major differences from years past, and things that were not an expectation going into the season.

 

[namttebih]

So the last 5 games were all against teams that would be out of the playoffs if the season ended today. 4 of whom truely aren't in contention to make it. Their record was 1-2-2 without a RW. These are the weeks that you look back at in April as wasted opportunities.

 

[Vaive50]

A buddy of mine actually predicted this. He said that they would be touch and go to make the playoffs. I thought he was absolutely insane at the time. But he’s being proven right.

He said he didn’t like the moves Dubas made last summer. He thought they got MUCH worse and Ceci and Barrie were a downgrade over Zaitsev, Hainsey and Gardiner, especially defensively and that Kerfoot was a MAJOR downgrade over Kadri.

Getting rid of Kadri was a tough decision but I'm almost sure that decision was made after his 2nd playoff suspension, he cost the Leafs both of those series'. He was a fan favorite and had a lot of grit and good offensively, he was kind of like a mini-Wendal Clark.

Gardiner had to go, look at his stats with the Canes, he has 18 points and is a -22 while most the team is in the high + double digits and as a team, the Canes are +27; Barrie at least has 31 points and is only -5. Losing Hainsey was the biggest mistake especially when they replaced him with Ceci.

The only reason the Leafs are fighting for a playoff spot at this point in the season was because of their first 23 games with Babcock where their record was 9-10-4 (.478) cause with Keefe, the Leafs are 20-9-4 (.667). If they were .667 all season long, they'd have 74 points right now (1 point under Tampa).

 

[Stephen]

It is uncommon for NHL teams to have injuries to that extent to key roles like that, and it does impact them, especially as a young team that has already had much of the developed farm system graduate in recent years.

The fact that we have received bottom of the league goaltending at the same time heavily exacerbates this issue. These are two major differences from years past, and things that were not an expectation going into the season.

Massing injuries are a part of the game. Granted, a younger team is going to have a harder time fighting through that than a veteran club with experience, but look at Pittsburgh. Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Hornqvist, Letang, Rust, Schultz all miss time, Murray is a tire fire in goal and they are battling for a division title.

 

[Stephen]

Getting rid of Kadri was a tough decision but I'm almost sure that decision was made after his 2nd playoff suspension, he cost the Leafs both of those series'. He was a fan favorite and had a lot of grit and good offensively, he was kind of like a mini-Wendal Clark.

Gardiner had to go, look at his stats with the Canes, he has 18 points and is a -22 while most the team is in the high + double digits and as a team, the Canes are +27; Barrie at least has 31 points and is only -5. Losing Hainsey was the biggest mistake especially when they replaced him with Ceci.

The only reason the Leafs are fighting for a playoff spot at this point in the season was because of their first 23 games with Babcock where their record was 9-10-4 (.478) cause with Keefe, the Leafs are 20-9-4 (.667). If they were .667 all season long, they'd have 74 points right now (1 point under Tampa).

Kadri and Gardiner had to go, but the error was in what we got back in the Kadri trade. Barrie is a disaster.

 

[cbbb25]

Injuries almost always have a negative impact, listing a few exceptions doesn't change that simple fact. If you think injuries don't matter, you may as well say that who the players are on the roster doesn't matter. That would be pretty dumb though wouldn't it?

Thats managements problem then. The Raptors now have one of the best scouting departments in the NBA. Injuries hit and the young guys come in and are crushing it, how come the Leafs who are also under the MLSE umbrella not able to scout and draft like the Raptors?

Your right it would be dumb to consider the rosters of random players the same as legit stars. Problem is the leafs have zero depth. So what the argument of injuries tell me is the Leafs need every player to be healthy and not have a down year to win a championship? Look at all the recent championships in all 4 major North American sports and almost none of them stayed fully healthy. They all found a diamond in the rough who absolutely dominated. If the leafs dont have that then aside from a rare fully healthy and career type years they will never win.

The NHL didnt really know who Binnington was until last year
The NBA didnt really know who Siakim was until last year
The NFL- Mahomes out for 4 weeks mid season (in a 16 game season) wins the superbowl

 

[Gary Nylund]

Massing injuries are a part of the game. Granted, a younger team is going to have a harder time fighting through that than a veteran club with experience, but look at Pittsburgh. Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Hornqvist, Letang, Rust, Schultz all miss time, Murray is a tire fire in goal and they are battling for a division title.

I'll just copy-paste what I said earlier:
Injuries almost always have a negative impact, listing a few exceptions doesn't change that simple fact. If you think injuries don't matter, you may as well say that who the players are on the roster doesn't matter. That would be pretty dumb though wouldn't it?