Rumor: Planning Ahead: 2019 Off-Season Part 2

[Telos]

I'd be very surprised if Brown phoned in his fitness. He's been in pretty good shape and takes it more seriously than just about anyone on the team. His physical conditioning is the number one reason he was able to pull off the extremely rare unlikely miracle of turning things around late in a NHL career. I suppose anything is possible, he has a lot of kids, and LA may not be competitive again before he eventually falls off the cliff, but he'd be the one I'd be surprised the most about.

 

[tomd]

Close what loop? The loop to the 9th place in the conference? Awesome, and all Blake has to do is pay the Panarin $63M over 7 years. It's okay though because for the first 3-4 years of his deal when the Kings are spinning their wheels, they can look forward to him still being in his prime at 32 years of age.

It could happen. I want to believe!!

If there was a way to put a mirror up to this post and have you see it's reflection, I do it! Right back at you and your magical rebuild!!

Much like everything seems to be in today's divisive society, we are arguing two incompatible positions. I think trying to get younger and better at the same time is a less extreme position than blowing it all up (when you really can't). I think most fans would prefer my approach but certainly not on this site which is geared to worship the 18 year-old. But I know your heart is in the right place no matter how misplaced that might be.

One thing I do remember from the early Lombardi days (and all the rebuilds before that) is that I would get more upset when the Kings won than when they lost. That was corrosive I now realize. Brian Willsie lives in infamy as does Kopitar's GWG on the last day of the 2007 season. You have many days of that attitude ahead of you...years in fact. Enjoy it

 

[johnjm22]

Hossa's 7.9M he was making for the Blackhawks is the equivalent of 11.4M today. Of course they went on to win many cups with him.

The difference is Hossa's deal was signed before contract term limits were put in place. Back then you were able to circumvent the cap by tacking on low salary years to the end of a contract. So Hossa's cap hit was only 5.275M (7.6M in today's money).

You can't really compare contracts and their effect on success in the old CBA versus the new. 8 year contract limit essentially eliminated the rampant cap circumvention that existed before.

 

[KINGS17]

Hossa's 7.9M he was making for the Blackhawks is the equivalent of 11.4M today. Of course they went on to win many cups with him.

The difference is Hossa's deal was signed before contract term limits were put in place. Back then you were able to circumvent the cap by tacking on low salary years to the end of a contract. So Hossa's cap hit was only 5.275M (7.6M in today's money).

You can't really compare contracts and their effect on success in the old CBA versus the new. 8 year contract limit essentially eliminated the rampant cap circumvention that existed before.

I think you made some excellent points here. In a round about way the Kings pulled off the same move with the trades for Carter and Richards.

Didn't hurt Chicago when they signed Duncan Keith to a cap circumventing contract, or the Kings either when they did it with Quick. Those moves paid off for both organizations.

 

[kilowatt]

I don’t think the Kings are going to be as bad next year as some may think. Our players don’t even need to have especially great seasons - just posting career-average numbers would result in a big boost in point totals. McLellan will likely provide a boost as well. If one or two prospects can come up and provide any sort of impact, we are likely in the lower end of the playoff mix without doing much of anything. It only took 90 points to make the playoffs this year.

 

[kingsholygrail]

lol Kopitar going from Selke winner and Hart finalist to not getting a single vote in either category in one year.

 

[tomd]

I don’t think the Kings are going to be as bad next year as some may think. Our players don’t even need to have especially great seasons - just posting career-average numbers would result in a big boost in point totals. McLellan will likely provide a boost as well. If one or two prospects can come up and provide any sort of impact, we are likely in the lower end of the playoff mix without doing much of anything. It only took 90 points to make the playoffs this year.

I agree and that would be a sign of progress for some and a disaster for others.

 

[johnjm22]

Ovechkin was an RFA when he signed his contract.

Crosby and Malkin were not UFA's when they signed their deals (extensions). Also these were signed under a different CBA that allowed them to get the cap hit down. Something you can't really do anymore.

 

[BigKing]

The irony is that they are guaranteeing that they will be paying for losers for he foreseeable future. Cutting off their nose to spite their face. Sad but ironic

Doesn't matter if you are cutting your nose off to spite your face if your face looks like Rocky f***ing Dennis.

 

[KingsFan7824]

The irony is that they are guaranteeing that they will be paying for losers for he foreseeable future. Cutting off their nose to spite their face. Sad but ironic

With that money, they have little choice but to pay it. It's about not adding more money on top of that, until the guys making all that money show they're worth investing in again. And that someone from the group of non-elite young players can give the team some real depth.

Doughty will get sick of it and demand a trade in a couple of seasons.

We can only hope, but there's really no reason to think that.

I don't think we will be signing any big name free agents until Kovy comes off the books. Same year as the expansion draft, hopefully we leave another fat contract exposed and selected.
I'll be happy if we sign Jordie Benn for depth on D just to ease in the kids and replace Martinez when he is out injured or traded.

They have 8 defenseman that are 24 or older. The youngest ones, Brickley, Roy, Walker, MacD, are all very likely nothing. Or like 3rd pair guys on a good team. They don't have to sign Benn to ease the kids in. They have more than enough throwaway guys on D until any of the ones with actual potential get some time in the AHL.

Hossa's 7.9M he was making for the Blackhawks is the equivalent of 11.4M today. Of course they went on to win many cups with him.

The difference is Hossa's deal was signed before contract term limits were put in place. Back then you were able to circumvent the cap by tacking on low salary years to the end of a contract. So Hossa's cap hit was only 5.275M (7.6M in today's money).

You can't really compare contracts and their effect on success in the old CBA versus the new. 8 year contract limit essentially eliminated the rampant cap circumvention that existed before.

Not just the 8 years, but more importantly the 50% drop limit.

 

[KingsFan7824]

I don’t think the Kings are going to be as bad next year as some may think. Our players don’t even need to have especially great seasons - just posting career-average numbers would result in a big boost in point totals. McLellan will likely provide a boost as well. If one or two prospects can come up and provide any sort of impact, we are likely in the lower end of the playoff mix without doing much of anything. It only took 90 points to make the playoffs this year.

If Carter isn't completely done, of Kovalchuk can find chemistry with anyone at all, if Toffoli isn't the Pillsbury Doughboy, and Kempe and Iafallo have more to give, that would all help. If Quick can stay in the net, and not do all the flopping around, that would help. We've seen what the Kings have been with Doughty, Muzzin, and Martinez in the top 3, and now they don't even have Muzzin. They need at least 1, but very likely 2 of the unknowns to be legit top 4D at a playoff level. If one of those guys is everyone's favorite Anderson, barely 20, picked 103rd overall, then that'll be great.

 

[tomd]

If Carter isn't completely done, of Kovalchuk can find chemistry with anyone at all, if Toffoli isn't the Pillsbury Doughboy, and Kempe and Iafallo have more to give, that would all help. If Quick can stay in the net, and not do all the flopping around, that would help. We've seen what the Kings have been with Doughty, Muzzin, and Martinez in the top 3, and now they don't even have Muzzin. They need at least 1, but very likely 2 of the unknowns to be legit top 4D at a playoff level. If one of those guys is everyone's favorite Anderson, barely 20, picked 103rd overall, then that'll be great.

The "loss" of Phaneuf is a big gain for improvement as well. 8-4-3 without him in the lineup last year while being replaced by minor leaguers.

Also, having a real coach is going to make a noticeable difference. A new system, some optimism, some accountability, and some self-reflective pride will all help. Who know by how much? Guessing 10 points.

 

[YP44]

He specially mentioned Brown’s training this summer currently. But, i would argue Brown is the least of the big salary problems. He has been good ever since Sutter left.

Carter, Quick, Kopitar, Martinez, Doughty, Forbort....

Brown has been good ever since Sutter left and he stopped having kids. I think there is a direct correlation to down years and having babies.

Forbort is punching above his weight class and has a good cap hit for the minutes he brings. I think he is the least of our issues.

 

[BigKing]

The "loss" of Phaneuf is a big gain for improvement as well. 8-4-3 without him in the lineup last year while being replaced by minor leaguers.

Also, having a real coach is going to make a noticeable difference. A new system, some optimism, some accountability, and some self-reflective pride will all help. Who know by how much? Guessing 10 points.

I've already pointed out the Arizona Coyotes and their "Look out for these guys next year" every year move because they win games at the end of the season because teams don't go as hard against them. That's the Kings last year as well so the Dion sample size is misleading.

Will him being out of the lineup be better? Sure. Will his replacement be Bobby Orr? Not even close.

The improvement in wins is going to be from a real coach and if these guys have any pride left after being embarrassing last season. I do think they will be better and finish in that 7th-10th worst range at best but Blake might move players for futures (banana peel) that could impact that as the season goes on. That range of finish isn't too far off from what most of us thought going in to the 2018 season (playoff team or black hole) and that makes sense since the roster is now worse off than that one was and it took an insane Kopitar season and a basically undefeated record from the back-up goalies to slide in to a WC spot. Also took Carter somehow scoring at a ridiculous clip once he came back from injury.

If they are worse off, how does even adding Panarin make them a contender? You seem to think that will get instant buy-in from the vets along with the fact that it relies on Panarin being all-in as opposed to collecting his fat paycheck in LA with the rest of the entitled guys.

No way. This team is maxed out on retirement contracts. It needs tons of hungry young guys that are trying to get those dollar bills.

Bottom line is that we can do this all summer and all throughout next year. You thought last year's team was a playoff team in January and then you vanished after Muzzin was traded. You believe in going for it and I understand your argument, but your assessment of this team's current roster is extremely flawed. The aberration of the last three seasons is 2018: not last season. Blake isn't wasting the years of the core; it is actually the core that has been wasting their own years. They don't deserve help until they help themselves.

 

[KINGS17]

If there was a way to put a mirror up to this post and have you see it's reflection, I do it! Right back at you and your magical rebuild!!

Much like everything seems to be in today's divisive society, we are arguing two incompatible positions. I think trying to get younger and better at the same time is a less extreme position than blowing it all up (when you really can't). I think most fans would prefer my approach but certainly not on this site which is geared to worship the 18 year-old. But I know your heart is in the right place no matter how misplaced that might be.

One thing I do remember from the early Lombardi days (and all the rebuilds before that) is that I would get more upset when the Kings won than when they lost. That was corrosive I now realize. Brian Willsie lives in infamy as does Kopitar's GWG on the last day of the 2007 season. You have many days of that attitude ahead of you...years in fact. Enjoy it

Will do, just like last time.

 

[SFKingshomer]

The Kings will make the playoffs next season.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Now here’s a player the Kings should consider if the price is right.


He’s still 24, and the Kings need more players in that age group. There’s some untapped potential with Burakovsky, but at the very least he’s proven he can score in the double digits and is capable of playing anywhere in the lineup.

 

[kilowatt]

Now here’s a player the Kings should consider if the price is right.


He’s still 24, and the Kings need more players in that age group. There’s some untapped potential with Burakovsky, but at the very least he’s proven he can score in the double digits and is capable of playing anywhere in the lineup.

I wouldn’t mind taking a risk on him and Wennberg.

 

[Steve Zissou]

Now here’s a player the Kings should consider if the price is right.


He’s still 24, and the Kings need more players in that age group. There’s some untapped potential with Burakovsky, but at the very least he’s proven he can score in the double digits and is capable of playing anywhere in the lineup.

Concur. We need these tweeners because we have young talent and veteran leadership (Brown, Kopie, Carter, Doughty, etc.) that failed to lead last season, but hardly any middle ground depth players.

Burakovsky also won a cup with The Caps in 2018; it's almost Dean Lombardi Mad Scientist perfect.

 

[KingsFan7824]

And where does Burakovsky play?

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

And where does Burakovsky play?

Nine regulars from last season are under contract, and four more in Kempe, Iafallo, Leipsic, and Amadio need to be re-signed. Next summer, they have Toffoli, Clifford and Lewis who will all be UFAs.

Burakovsky is a better player than some of those names.

 

[tomd]

I've already pointed out the Arizona Coyotes and their "Look out for these guys next year" every year move because they win games at the end of the season because teams don't go as hard against them. That's the Kings last year as well so the Dion sample size is misleading.

Will him being out of the lineup be better? Sure. Will his replacement be Bobby Orr? Not even close.

The improvement in wins is going to be from a real coach and if these guys have any pride left after being embarrassing last season. I do think they will be better and finish in that 7th-10th worst range at best but Blake might move players for futures (banana peel) that could impact that as the season goes on. That range of finish isn't too far off from what most of us thought going in to the 2018 season (playoff team or black hole) and that makes sense since the roster is now worse off than that one was and it took an insane Kopitar season and a basically undefeated record from the back-up goalies to slide in to a WC spot. Also took Carter somehow scoring at a ridiculous clip once he came back from injury.

If they are worse off, how does even adding Panarin make them a contender? You seem to think that will get instant buy-in from the vets along with the fact that it relies on Panarin being all-in as opposed to collecting his fat paycheck in LA with the rest of the entitled guys.

No way. This team is maxed out on retirement contracts. It needs tons of hungry young guys that are trying to get those dollar bills.

Bottom line is that we can do this all summer and all throughout next year. You thought last year's team was a playoff team in January and then you vanished after Muzzin was traded. You believe in going for it and I understand your argument, but your assessment of this team's current roster is extremely flawed. The aberration of the last three seasons is 2018: not last season. Blake isn't wasting the years of the core; it is actually the core that has been wasting their own years. They don't deserve help until they help themselves.

Yeah, just from a hockey fan perspective I tend to chime in when there are interesting things to talk about. The pre-Muzzin TDL days were an interesting time and yes I did advocate the side that was against trading him but I always acknowledged the fact that he was the most likely to be traded. My assessment of the team was pretty good though in the sense that I didn't see anyone else getting traded simply because the value wasn't there. I spent weeks (months?) arguing that Toffoli wasn't worth a 1st, that Quick wasn't worth a 1st, that Carter wasn't worth much at all, and that Martinez wouldn't be traded if Muzzin was. Their value was in keeping them and demanding improvement. All that was correct and remains so.

I stayed away after the TDL because there was simply nothing interesting to talk about. I stayed away after the disaster of the ping pong balls but was amused at how karma had intervened in the best laid plans to "lose4hughes". June and July are interesting times because again there are interesting decisions and forks in the road to discuss. Once those decisions (or non-decisions) then I will disappear again because there will be nothing interesting to talk about.

I get where the tankers are coming from...I really do. I hope you get that I'm looking at it from the reality of carrying 8,11,23, and 32 (and probably 77) for years on a team that is directionless. Very few fans outside of this board are going to hang with that. Maybe Blake has a plan to keep the kids from getting poisoned by the toxicity of a locker room infected by the disinterest of the veterans that are just collecting a paycheck and enjoying the beach life. And it will be a toxic and dysfunctional locker room for sure. How can TM run a team that has given up before training camp starts because they know management has give up on them and quite frankly don't care? My advocacy for someone like Panarin is to keep the players, the organization, and the fans engaged and moving forward with a purpose to get better. I know he's not going to single-handedly reverse the fortunes of the team but he'll be the ONLY talented player they have in the 22-28 year age range and they can get him for "free". This is exactly the type of free agent you go for...young and very talented. He's the exception and not the rule. He'll make the kids better and more creative. He'll keep guys like 11 and 8 "younger" because it will be fun to play on the ice with him. Who knows...maybe his presence will have a ripple effect and actually help the team turn around.

I continue to believe that the Kings are in a uniquely bad position to do a full rebuild for all the reasons I noted above.
Add to that that I have no illusions about the talent level of the prospects in the system now. Unlike the poster who sees EVERY Kings prospect as a top 6F or a top 4D and inserts them into next year's lineup as such, I see a lot of middle position players outside of Vilardi (who may never play a single game). I don't see a single top line player in the organization outside of Vilardi. Not one. The most talented players in the organization are on the NHL roster...there is literally no one in the organization ready to replace them...now or ever. Why not try to make that talent work? People will continue to spend money and stay engaged in a retool; very few will do so during a rebuild. AEG knows that; Blake know that; Luc knows that...and you guys know that.

Anyway, I'm enjoying the conversations. What most surprises me is the utter resistance to a retool and the embrace of a rebuild. When they work they're great. But they rarely do and you need a lot of luck which the Kings don't seem to have. I know that those of you still posting (and it's a lot fewer than it used to be) are "all in" for the tank. That's fine and I get it. We can check back in 5 years and see what came of it.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Nine regulars from last season are under contract, and four more in Kempe, Iafallo, Leipsic, and Amadio need to be re-signed. Next summer, they have Toffoli, Clifford and Lewis who will all be UFAs.

Burakovsky is a better player than some of those names.

If they can get rid of someone, then Burakovsky is fine. I don't think any other team needs Clifford or Lewis come October though. They're 4th line guys. They're finishing touches, not big minute players you need to build chemistry with. They're very low maintenance, and can easily fit into any team with 20 games to go at the deadline. Doesn't seem like they're fond of selling low on Toffoli right now either. Yeah, we can count 13 forwards that are all but on the team as of today. If Burakovsky were looking for a place to finally be able to get some minutes, as bad as the Kings may be, I'm not completely sure this is the place for him. Does he want to go from the 4th line in Washington, to the 3rd line here? Kovalchuk, Iafallo, maybe Prokhorkin, they want to get Wagner more minutes I'm sure, Leipsic can play both wings. Grundstrom is there too as a possibility. The right side, Brown is going to get his, Toffoli has to get time, Carter might be there. Luff.

The Kings don't have enough forwards, but they also have too many.

 

[BigKing]

Tom...the core was given a shiny new toy last season and they crapped the bed.

They were given Lucic at the expense of the future and they blew it.

They were given Richards to keep the band together and they blew it.

As a matter of fact, Kopitar's best season was when he wasn't given anybody and knew he had to carry the mail. That plays in to the belief that these guys have to prove they can lift a team to be more than the sum of its parts as opposed to simply being a good player on a bad team.

There are no guarantees with either route so it needs to be understood that signing a Panarin doesn't mean that the core will perform like it is 2014 again. That is a $70MM+ gamble for AEG just in his contract alone and a significant possibility that the needed rebuild takes longer. They've been dumping money in to this team for years and have one playoff win to show for it over the last five seasons.

You are hung up on star power and ticket sales for AEG. Panarin won't mean a thing. It's hockey: not the NBA. Winning is what fills the arena and Panarin does not turn them into one.

These long-term contracts are a sunk cost for the next two seasons. They thought they were contenders but they weren't and now they are holding the bag on these guys. Them the breaks. You want to throw good money at bad. Just step away from the table and don't try to win your money back. They lost. Now they need to build a stack of chips again before they can start making big bets like a Panarin.

 

[BigKing]

Sorry for the double post, but just got the e-mail from the Kings with a "special message" from Luc.

To sum it up: Rebuild

Says that the success of the prospects hinges on the right coach and the right veteran to guide and teach them what it means to become champions. Guess we'll find out if who they feel are the right veterans when it comes to the moveable ones. The feel they have the right coach, hence the five year deal.

Anyways, time to enjoy watching a lot of young guys.