Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread: Clever Thread Title Needed

[KIRK]

Vegas put a lot of time into getting to know the players personalities and a lot of weight went into that on who to pick.

Worked really well for them but not sure Seattle will put the emphasis that Vegas did in that or be as successful at it.

True.

From what I gather, as a personality, Zucker would be a fantastic fit.

I just don't see him being the pick (absent some incentive or larger deal), even if the strategy is a flip. I mean, let's say he's better there. He gets them a 3rd. Does a complete 180? Maybe a 2nd. Just not sure, for example, Tanev isn't worth more than that. Or Petts (although I have a hard time envisioning that one, but who knows until teams release their lists).

 

[Tom Hanks]

True.

From what I gather, as a personality, Zucker would be a fantastic fit.

I just don't see him being the pick (absent some incentive or larger deal), even if the strategy is a flip. I mean, let's say he's better there. He gets them a 3rd. Does a complete 180? Maybe a 2nd. Just not sure, for example, Tanev isn't worth more than that. Or Petts (although I have a hard time envisioning that one, but who knows until teams release their lists).

I’d still say Zucker with the pedigree and shorter term.

So many variables though. If Petts is exposed it’s surely him but I doubt he would be. Does Seattle take a gamble on contract for Matheson? Also what’s available at each position etc

 

[Goalie_Bob]

The Pens should not expose Matheson to keep Pettersson. And I think it is pretty obvious who they prefer just look at their usage.

Pettersson will be exposed.

And I believe that if Zucker is exposed they will take him. He fits their team like a glove. Short term high value contract.

He can easily come in and be their top line LW and play on the top PP unit. Then when he returns back to being a 25-25 guy due to that kind of usage they can trade him off for a 1st at next years deadline with retention and easily get a 1st+ if they are out of the playoff picture.

 

[Flying Dego]

The Pens should not expose Matheson to keep Pettersson. And I think it is pretty obvious who they prefer just look at their usage.

Pettersson will be exposed.

And I believe that if Zucker is exposed they will take him. He fits their team like a glove. Short term high value contract.

He can easily come in and be their top line LW and play on the top PP unit. Then when he returns back to being a 25-25 guy due to that kind of usage they can trade him off for a 1st at next years deadline with retention and easily get a 1st+ if they are out of the playoff picture.

I think everyone is overthinking this. How many exposed players will be in their 20s that have scored 60+ in a season. I doubt many.

Teams will have exposed mostly good 3rd liners so unless I'm missing something Zucker is gonna look real good.

Hextall should have zero need to bribe.

 

[KIRK]

The Pens should not expose Matheson to keep Pettersson. And I think it is pretty obvious who they prefer just look at their usage.

Pettersson will be exposed.

And I believe that if Zucker is exposed they will take him. He fits their team like a glove. Short term high value contract.

He can easily come in and be their top line LW and play on the top PP unit. Then when he returns back to being a 25-25 guy due to that kind of usage they can trade him off for a 1st at next years deadline with retention and easily get a 1st+ if they are out of the playoff picture.

If Zucker is taken by Seattle and does a 180, then yeah he COULD get a 1st with 50% retention (no way without it). Of course, this assumes a GM willing to pony up the 1st will assume how Zucker fit in Pittsburgh was a one off and not necessarily indicative of an added gamble associated with how Zucker would fit with his team.

Agreed that Petts will be exposed.

EDIT: I do think it's important to add that it's highly speculative to know which likely to be exposed guy will appeal most to Seattle without knowing and doing an in depth analysis of who other teams will expose. And, even then, GMRF's strategy won't be apparent for a couple of picks.

 

[KIRK]

I think everyone is overthinking this. How many exposed players will be in their 20s that have scored 60+ in a season. I doubt many.

Teams will have exposed mostly good 3rd liners so unless I'm missing something Zucker is gonna look real good.

Hextall should have zero need to bribe.

That 60 point season came 3 years ago, followed by 2 seasons in the 40's and then this season. You're not talking a perennial 60 point scorer here. A (barely) 20 goal guy? Sure. But, this year's performance and 5.5M with the type of usage he gets . . . as I said, I hope they take him and I certainly see the argument why they would . . . I just am far less certain than some of you seem to be.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Best spin I've got is Vegas took Neal, but Neal was in a much better place in 2017 than Zucker is now.

Guessing a Zucker pump and dump by Francis best case gets him a 3rd (a 2nd if Zucker does a full 180 perhaps). I just think there are better pickings on the Pens regardless of objective. Hopefully I'm wrong.

That is absurd, what the hell is this

JR literally paid a 1st and Addison for Zucker a year ago, but now the "best case" is a 2nd if Zucker does a full 180?

 

[KIRK]

That is absurd, what the hell is this

JR literally paid a 1st and Addison for Zucker a year ago, but now the "best case" is a 2nd if Zucker does a full 180?

Full retention and Zucker does a 180, I just said I could see a 1st. Other than that, I'm not sure what JR literally paid for a player who has much less value now due to his play/on ice fit in Pittsburgh and his cap hit in a flat cap world has to do with anything . . . and those certainly are two things that will weigh on any GM's mind.

EDIT: I've said my piece. Say what you want from here. If Zucker doing a 180 makes him worth a 1st in spite of how he performed in Pittsburgh and the changed cap realities is another of your hills you plan to die on, then by all means . . . I won't argue it with you further.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Pens should not expose Matheson to keep Pettersson. And I think it is pretty obvious who they prefer just look at their usage.

Pettersson will be exposed.

And I believe that if Zucker is exposed they will take him. He fits their team like a glove. Short term high value contract.

He can easily come in and be their top line LW and play on the top PP unit. Then when he returns back to being a 25-25 guy due to that kind of usage they can trade him off for a 1st at next years deadline with retention and easily get a 1st+ if they are out of the playoff picture.

I think you're right on pretty much everything here. The team obviously values Matheson higher than they value Pettersson based on his usage, so I don't think there is any reason to suspect that they protect Pettersson over Matheson.

I think the most likely outcome is:

-Zucker is taken in the expansion draft
-Pettersson is traded for a similarly priced bottom-6 forward
-POJ slides into the 3rd pair role for next year and the 2nd pair becomes Matheson-Marino.

 

[KIRK]

I think you're right on pretty much everything here. The team obviously values Matheson higher than they value Pettersson based on his usage, so I don't think there is any reason to suspect that they protect Pettersson over Matheson.

I think the most likely outcome is:

-Zucker is taken in the expansion draft
-Pettersson is traded for a similarly priced bottom-6 forward
-POJ slides into the 3rd pair role for next year and the 2nd pair becomes Matheson-Marino.

FYI . . . I hope you're right about all of this.

Perhaps except the Matheson-Marino part, but maybe they'll do a 180 next year.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The Pens should not expose Matheson to keep Pettersson. And I think it is pretty obvious who they prefer just look at their usage.

Pettersson will be exposed.

I would laugh if Seattle took Matheson. They wouldn't though.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Full retention and Zucker does a 180, I just said I could see a 1st. Other than that, I'm not sure what JR literally paid for a player who has much less value now due to his play/on ice fit in Pittsburgh and his cap hit in a flat cap world has to do with anything . . . and those certainly are two things that will weigh on any GM's mind.

If Zucker does a full 180 and returns to being a 25-25 player, he's bringing back more than a 1st even without any retention. If he returns to form, he's going to bring back something pretty similar to what JR traded for him because that's the going rate for 25-25 top-6 forwards.

There's really no precedent for a guy like Zucker being traded for that level of a return if he's producing at that level. They'd get a 2nd or 3rd for him right now if they retained money, but if he rebounds, he's easily in the 1st+ range. If the Penguins traded Zucker prior to the expansion draft, my guess is that they'd probably get a pricey bottom-6 forward and a 2nd.

 

[Empoleon8771]

FYI . . . I hope you're right about all of this.

Perhaps except the Matheson-Marino part, but maybe they'll do a 180 next year.

I don't really buy the theory that Matheson needs Ceci to perform well. It sounds like fans falling into the "correlation means causation" trap, when I think it's more likely that it's a combination of Matheson being hot and cold, Marino mostly being bad and Ceci being mostly good this year (although Ceci fell off later in the year).

I'm not super worried about that pair going into next year. On paper, I like Matheson-Marino and POJ-Ceci (if they re-sign Ceci, which I'm pretty sure they shouldn't) more than flipping Marino and Ceci.

 

[KIRK]

I don't really buy the theory that Matheson needs Ceci to perform well. It sounds like fans falling into the "correlation means causation" trap, when I think it's more likely that it's a combination of Matheson being hot and cold, Marino mostly being bad and Ceci being mostly good this year (although Ceci fell off later in the year).

I'm not super worried about that pair going into next year. On paper, I like Matheson-Marino and POJ-Ceci (if they re-sign Ceci, which I'm pretty sure they shouldn't) more than flipping Marino and Ceci.

My comment was directed more at what I saw from the Matheson-Marino pairing than at Matheson somehow 'needing' Ceci, but if you like Matheson-Marino on paper like you liked Zucker-Malkin on paper, I'm sure it'll be fine.

 

[Peat]

Like I said I'd bet money ZAR is not the guy. He's an RFA due a bump no? Let's say ZAR has the confidence you have in him he'll look for closer to 2M a year. If I'm a GM and want a defensive bottom 6 guy that impacts I'm taking Tanev at 3.5M without thinking twice.

But again I don't think they pass Zucker if available. We shall see who is right with ole Ron Francis.

I'm not saying Francis won't take Zucker, just there's a bunch of steps in the logic tree to them taking Zucker in a cap tight environment so I can easily see them going with a far cheaper option..

If Zucker is taken by Seattle and does a 180, then yeah he COULD get a 1st with 50% retention (no way without it). Of course, this assumes a GM willing to pony up the 1st will assume how Zucker fit in Pittsburgh was a one off and not necessarily indicative of an added gamble associated with how Zucker would fit with his team.

Agreed that Petts will be exposed.

EDIT: I do think it's important to add that it's highly speculative to know which likely to be exposed guy will appeal most to Seattle without knowing and doing an in depth analysis of who other teams will expose. And, even then, GMRF's strategy won't be apparent for a couple of picks.

The bolded is incredibly important. So too are questions over the strategy. How much will Francis value getting Tyler Johnson to be a local guy? If it's a lot, maybe that's an easy deal with Tampa. If it's not, maybe he ends up taking another player from Tampa and loads up the top 6 that way. Etc.etc.

Also, a best case bounceback for Zucker i.e. back to form, top 6 minutes, PP1, in Seattle would be fantastic for them and Zucker's value. A 1st as a rental, or a 2nd + good prospect, seems pretty easy in that scenario (with retention obvs). That's one thing where I think Flying Dego does have a good point - the best case scenario for Seattle with Zucker is their best case scenario with Pittsburgh.

-Pettersson is traded for a similarly priced bottom-6 forward

Depending on the contract, I'd rather buy him out.

I would laugh if Seattle took Matheson. They wouldn't though.

Would be very surprised if he's exposed at this point.

My comment was directed more at what I saw from the Matheson-Marino pairing than at Matheson somehow 'needing' Ceci, but if you like Matheson-Marino on paper like you liked Zucker-Malkin on paper, I'm sure it'll be fine.

Matheson-Marino played well together their first game (and weirdly, pretty well vs NYI in general) and, post 5v5 pairing, looked solid as a 4v4/PP pairing. Their bad games came with the team at their most messy and with both of them at their most messy. I'm not saying it'll work but I don't think being so skeptical about them based on a small sample makes sense.

Plus, at their cap hits, having them together getting a bunch of minutes makes a ton of sense. I don't know if we can afford pairings 2A and 2B right now. If we can't, sticking them together kinda needs to be tried.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Depending on the contract, I'd rather buy him out.

I'd rather have an overpaid bottom-6 winger for 1-3 years over 8 years of dead cap space, though.

It's 8 years at $670k. It's not a ton, but it's a penalty for nearly the next decade. Especially when you consider Pettersson isn't a bad player either, he's just redundant here.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Would be very surprised if he's exposed at this point.

So would I. But he'd glide through the draft.

Seattle's not gonna want to commit nearly 5 mil per to this player for the next 5 years. No chance in hell.

 

[Peat]

I'd rather have an overpaid bottom-6 winger for 1-3 years over 8 years of dead cap space, though.

It's 8 years at $670k. It's not a ton, but it's a penalty for nearly the next decade. Especially when you consider Pettersson isn't a bad player either, he's just redundant here.

If it's one year, probably yeah. If it's three... then you're talking three years of possibly greater cap inefficiency, followed by five years of worse - but the three comes when we're probably contending, and the five comes when we're probably contending. And since you said similar, we're probably talking the three, given how Pettersson's got four more years.

Depends how much they're overpaid by as well.

Out of curiosity, looking at contracts that make sense for swapsies here that don't make more sense, you get -

Kassian (up in 24)
Sissons (up in 26)

And I think that's kinda it.

Go shorter, 23 -

Kerfoot
Compher
Byron
Hagelin
Panik

A fair few of those guys are on teams that don't want to be acquiring more cap, or don't need a LD (or both).

So would I. But he'd glide through the draft.

Seattle's not gonna want to commit nearly 5 mil per to this player for the next 5 years. No chance in hell.

I, err, hmm, I dunno. Like... probably not? But he is a unicorn in terms of what he can do and has mostly been worth the money this year...

 

[Jacob]

Zucker, ERod, ZAR & Matheson out and Saad, POJ & Zohorna & O’Connor in.

 

[BrookswasHere44]

I've put like zero thought/research into this and I'm overly emotional but does Jake get us Greenway, Foligno and a 1st?

 

[wheelz87]

I've put like zero thought/research into this and I'm overly emotional but does Jake get us Greenway, Foligno and a 1st?

i doubt it but.. and I don’t want to be overly emotional myself.. but trading jake might not be the dumbest thing..

 

[Empoleon8771]

Trading Guentzel would be a bad idea because Guentzel has historically been a great playoff player. He's probably just hurt right now and he's cost controlled for a long time.

But Rust? Ship him the hell out of here. Pending UFA after next year that will want a big extension and hasn't shown up in the playoffs since 2017? Yeah, screw that. Sell high on him.

 

[wheelz87]

Trading Guentzel would be a bad idea because Guentzel has historically been a great playoff player. He's probably just hurt right now and he's cost controlled for a long time.

But Rust? Ship him the hell out of here. Pending UFA after next year that will want a big extension and hasn't shown up in the playoffs since 2017? Yeah, screw that. Sell high on him.

My thing with Jake is.. his shoulder could be permanently messed up.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I don't think it'd be a bad thing to trade anyone, to be brutally honest. Rust walks in a year and hasn't done a thing in the playoffs for years. Jake's got zero confidence in his shoulder and has now developed a fun penchant for temper tantrums, so even if he could play well, his head is about 3% in the game at any given time. McCann has potential to turn the corner but like, he's been as invisible as anyone. Literally worse than Zucker, who sucks.

Either the team has to get aggressive as f*** and try to reshape things in an effort to get one more good run out of this era, or they go firesale and aim for 3-5 years from now with a whole new youth movement. If they stand pat, they're donezo.

 

[Pengu]

I really wish the team moves on from Malkin and Letang after their contract runs out after next season.
Malkin just is never healthy and I feel his play has declined in the last couple of seasons. He'll be 36 going on 37 and the contract demands will be ugly imo.
And well, Letang will be 35 going on 36 and as soon as his body starts to break down it will be a disaster and his contract demands will be ugly too.
I hope those 17 million could be put to better use....
Sure, if they're willing to do a Spezza I'm all for it....