Prospect Info: Pittsburgh Penguins Prospects Thread: 2023-2024 Edition

[HandshakeLine]

Trotz said it best when moving up to the GM office last year. With what he told his scouts before the draft “I can find you guys to play on the 3rd and 4th line no problem. Go find me guys that can get people out of their seats.”

I think the later rounds especially is where you take your home run swings. Take the skilled soft European who is allergic to the defensive zone. Or the PP QB who can’t gap. You can possibly teach that part, you can’t teach skill.

This franchise has been enamored with prioritizing low skill low risk players likely because our last 2 successful coaches were those themselves.

Yeah, nothing drives me more nuts than the hard-on this franchise has for bottom 6 guys who have the ceiling of Craig Adams. That's got to be addressed.

 

[SEALBound]

Trotz said it best when moving up to the GM office last year. With what he told his scouts before the draft “I can find you guys to play on the 3rd and 4th line no problem. Go find me guys that can get people out of their seats.”

I think the later rounds especially is where you take your home run swings. Take the skilled soft European who is allergic to the defensive zone. Or the PP QB who can’t gap. You can possibly teach that part, you can’t teach skill.

This franchise has been enamored with prioritizing low skill low risk players likely because our last 2 successful coaches were those themselves.

They have prioritized role players or support players because they've had two generational talents since 06. They never thought, "Hey, let's get ANOTHER 1/2C prospect and see where that goes!" This goes all the way back to Shero too.

Yzerman hit big on several Russian prospects and made the comment (something like) that these guys were dropping because they were high-skill, low-physicality guys who were being viewed as one-dimensional which was a big part of the mid-2010s Russian stigma.

If you have 2 2nds this upcoming draft, I think you go with a safe choice and a boom/bust choice. I wouldn't let much more than "does this player possess a high-end skill set" influence the 2nd pick. I wouldn't care about height, weight, PK ability, defensive zone awareness - I would pick the guy who moves well and either passes or shoots like a f***ing king.

My list of a early/mid 2nd round players:
Terik Parascak - his stock went up to finish the year. I don't think he'll be there at 44ov but if he is, instant choice.
Egor Surin - this is a guy is the MHL who might fall for a number of reasons but a great example of a guy who has the speed, skating, and shot. It's all of the other crap that scouts get worried about that might make him drop. Think Sprong maybe.
Maxim Masse - Like Parascak, I don't think he'll be there at 44 but this kid drives offense.
Lucas Pettersson - Modo Center, all around good skillset. I think this is a great "safe" choice to restock center prospect pool. +
Justin Poirier - another monster scoring machine from the QMJHL but he may fall because of size at 5'8 but again, that could be good for those wanting that boom or bust.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

With two second-rounders, I would look for a right defenseman and a high-upside center with those picks. Basically, let's start trying to find heir apparents for Letang and Malkin (if not Karlsson and Crosby). It is going to be a long, hard process but we have to start somewhere.

David Jiricek's brother might be available early in round 2. Adam Jiricek. There are others.

I completely agree with the swing-for-the-fences approach. I don't know if Jiricek is considered safe or a swing, I was just throwing it out there.

 

[The Old Master]

With two second-rounders, I would look for a right defenseman and a high-upside center with those picks. Basically, let's start trying to find heir apparents for Letang and Malkin (if not Karlsson and Crosby). It is going to be a long, hard process but we have to start somewhere.

just on general terms, i would be looking at de. they usually take a little longer to develop, so they might tend to drop a little. (i haven't done my homework so it more a guess this year.)

 

[HandshakeLine]

Just out of morbid curiosity, how many of our "safe" picks actually panned out?

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Just out of morbid curiosity, how many of our "safe" picks actually panned out?

Jordan Staal?

 

[Darren McCord]

They have prioritized role players or support players because they've had two generational talents since 06. They never thought, "Hey, let's get ANOTHER 1/2C prospect and see where that goes!" This goes all the way back to Shero too.

Isn't that the issue he is getting at? That was an awful strategy.

 

[SEALBound]

With two second-rounders, I would look for a right defenseman and a high-upside center with those picks. Basically, let's start trying to find heir apparents for Letang and Malkin (if not Karlsson and Crosby). It is going to be a long, hard process but we have to start somewhere.

David Jiricek's brother might be available early in round 2. Adam Jiricek. There are others.

I completely agree with the swing-for-the-fences approach. I don't know if Jiricek is considered safe or a swing, I was just throwing it out there.

I'm with you there on that approach as well. For me, it might depend on who is still available at both picks. Anymore, I think I'm of the complete opposite mindset of what Shero had. I think if you have a couple of solid forwards (especially a center), you can trade them for similar dmen a lot easier than vice versa.

Mittelstadt, by most accounts, wasn't a super high-end prospect, but then one day, boom, it breaks out, and you get Byram for him.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Jordan Staal?

UGH.

 

[eXile3]

We aren’t actually that bad at drafting. We’re bad at keeping draft picks. In a numbers game we don’t have the numbers.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

We aren’t actually that bad at drafting. We’re bad at keeping draft picks. In a numbers game we don’t have the numbers.

I think that's a lot of it. But like... this team can't even draft/develop it's own third and fourth liners? That shouldn't take first round picks every year to do IMO. Then again... there are other factors at work there, too.

 

[SEALBound]

We aren’t actually that bad at drafting. We’re bad at keeping draft picks. In a numbers game we don’t have the numbers.

Certainly part of the equation but it also suggests that with what few draft picks we do have, we should be slightly better at developing them. And we are dog shit at that.

One thing that gets tough to keep balancing and justifying is the - well we have traded picks for more impactful players in pursuit of the Cup. We've given away assets for the likes of Zucker, Rakell, Smith, Brassard...and while it's easy to point out that they are better than any prospect we could have drafted, we still have little to show for it. At the same time, we were holding on to a very long playoff streak.

Carolina has a tremendous prospect pool. One to be absolutely envious of. But...they haven't won shit since 06. They haven't even come close. Sure, their low finishes and rare willingness to trade helped them get a solid roster and quality prospect pool but it doesn't really mean shit when you're a continual 1st/2nd round loser. So while I say "yeah, but we got good players for them" that "yeah but we haven't won shit in a while starts creeping in".

I'll restate something interesting I found - I looked at every trade we've made since like 2007. I looked at the picks and prospects we've sent out in exchange for players we thought would help at the time. I looked at how the prospect we drafted did how how the draft pick plus five slots lower in the draft did (to help account for "well we don't know how guys were ranked"). At the end of the day, VERY little we missed out on. Very little. I think highlights were Barzel (that 1st went to Edmonton for Perron who got us Haglein who was big in both cup wins), K'Andre Miller (Brassard 1st), and Dzingle (2011 7th that we traded for Kovalev). Prospects were highlighted by 3rd pairing dman Addison. After that...meh. So while we've traded a lot of way, I don't believe it's so much that we are actively in a worse spot but chaos theory is chaos theory so who knows.

 

[Maninthebox87]

I feel a lot of people myself included were a little spoiled drafting guys early and them immediately making the roster like Staal in 06. I always kinda liked when they would trade 1st rounders but it’d be a guy like Kessel or Hossa”who they on record tried to make a priority to keep”. I do find it a little frustrating however that they never really were able to draft 3rd and 4th liners who could PK and be hard to play against and would have to overpay for them rather than have them cheap and use them up before their bodies got too many miles on them.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Position shouldn't be a consideration. Draft the best available talent. You can always use a surplus at a position to later address a weakness.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I feel a lot of people myself included were a little spoiled drafting guys early and them immediately making the roster like Staal in 06. I always kinda liked when they would trade 1st rounders but it’d be a guy like Kessel or Hossa”who they on record tried to make a priority to keep”. I do find it a little frustrating however that they never really were able to draft 3rd and 4th liners who could PK and be hard to play against and would have to overpay for them rather than have them cheap and use them up before their bodies got too many miles on them.

Exactly. I can't very well sit here and say stuff like "low first round picks are kinda worthless TBH" then whine about not drafting any high end players in the last 15 years or whatever it is. But how many years has there been at least one or two journeyman vet types on the roster that the team went on and paid for after another team already got their best years and we're all sitting here like "you're telling me they couldn't have gotten those ~30 points from some kid on an ELC?" If you can't draft and develop your own Brock McGinns and Noel Acciaris something is very wrong with your pipeline/process.

 

[Jacob]

I think being a football town we’re in football mode as far as drafting. We think you can draft for need and even late picks can make relatively large and immediate impacts. Not us here but casual fans and even the media a little. Maybe that trickles down a bit to here.

 

[SEALBound]

I feel a lot of people myself included were a little spoiled drafting guys early and them immediately making the roster like Staal in 06. I always kinda liked when they would trade 1st rounders but it’d be a guy like Kessel or Hossa”who they on record tried to make a priority to keep”. I do find it a little frustrating however that they never really were able to draft 3rd and 4th liners who could PK and be hard to play against and would have to overpay for them rather than have them cheap and use them up before their bodies got too many miles on them.

I think we used to but in the pursuit of always having to compete for the cup, they opted to sign them in free agency. We draft Malone, Carcillo, Talbot, Christensen, Armstrong, Kennedy, Vitale, Rust, Kuhnhackl, Wilson, Archibald, Bleuger, Sundqvist, Lafferty, Angello, Bjorkqvist...all guys that should be good 3rd line pain-in-the-ass players to play against but instead, Shero goes out and signs Adams and Glass, JR gets Fehr and Winnik, Hextall pretty much gets all 4th line players with no plan, and Dubas gets Acciari and Nieto.

So I think we've always had capable 3rd/4th line players but their opportunity to present their game has been difficult throughout the year. Our big breakthrough was Dupuis retiring, Porter breaking a leg, and Malkin having an injury that necessitated us calling up three young guys to show their stuff at the NHL level under a coach who knew them well at the AHL level. There's a disconnect now that makes that tough.

Position shouldn't be a consideration. Draft the best available talent. You can always use a surplus at a position to later address a weakness.

I think this upcoming draft, unless there is a strong talent that drops, I think teams will be considering organizational depth much more. If you're drafting 2ov and you're flush with wing talent and lacking defenders, you're taking Levshunov over Demidov 100%.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

I think being a football town we’re in football mode as far as drafting. We think you can draft for need and even late picks can make relatively large and immediate impacts. Not us here but casual fans and even the media a little. Maybe that trickles down a bit to here.

Yes. First few rounds are best player available regardless of position.

Anything after the fourth or fifth is a lotto ticket. Some guy with high end potential but who could easily crash and burn.

I think this upcoming draft, unless there is a strong talent that drops, I think teams will be considering organizational depth much more. If you're drafting 2ov and you're flush with wing talent and lacking defenders, you're taking Levshunov over Demidov 100%.

The only teams who should remotely be considering organizational depth are those in the top three. Maybe the top five. And even then it should only be a moderate consideration. If you're flush with centers and Sidney Crosby is the top pick, you still take Crosby and figure shit out later.

The odds of anyone outside the top three playing in the NHL this season drop considerably with each pick.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Position shouldn't be a consideration. Draft the best available talent. You can always use a surplus at a position to later address a weakness.

I agree but historically we are terrible at doing that.

 

[SEALBound]

The only teams who should remotely be considering organizational depth are those in the top three. Maybe the top five. And even then it should only be a moderate consideration. If you're flush with centers and Sidney Crosby is the top pick, you still take Crosby and figure shit out later.

The odds of anyone outside the top three playing in the NHL this season drop considerably with each pick.

The general sentiment on this draft is, there's Mack, and then 2-4/5 are about equal. Then 5-10 are about equal. Then after that, is a ton of players that are all about the same. What I was getting at is that they will be so close, that positional strength may very well be the factor that makes a team choose one player over another. If you're picking, saying 44ov, and you need a center, you're likely taking the best center available. If you want to go defense, you take the best defender available. That being based on the premise that the difference at that point between the "best forward, best dman, best goalie" is relatively small to the point where it's better to stock up on what you need vs worrying about "BPA".

 

[Gurglesons]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1797663868447031789

Oh man guys. We are 23rd. Look at that stacked top ten. Filip Hallander gonna tear it up here baby.

 

[HandshakeLine]

How did we have a "mixed season", lol? Our season stunk!

 

[DesertedPenguin]

The general sentiment on this draft is, there's Mack, and then 2-4/5 are about equal. Then 5-10 are about equal. Then after that, is a ton of players that are all about the same. What I was getting at is that they will be so close, that positional strength may very well be the factor that makes a team choose one player over another. If you're picking, saying 44ov, and you need a center, you're likely taking the best center available. If you want to go defense, you take the best defender available. That being based on the premise that the difference at that point between the "best forward, best dman, best goalie" is relatively small to the point where it's better to stock up on what you need vs worrying about "BPA".

If the best center available at 44 is better than the best defender available at 44, you better damn well take the center over the defenseman, even if you're well stocked at center.

Best. Player. Available. Period.

 

[SEALBound]

If the best center available at 44 is better than the best defender available at 44, you better damn well take the center over the defenseman, even if you're well stocked at center.

Best. Player. Available. Period.

Other drafts, I might agree. This one, meh.

To be clear, I'm with you on BPA. I get what you're saying and I'm not disagreeing. I'm just saying that, according to those familiar with the draft, the differentiation may be fairly limited, so it's like to be based more on position than "who is better".

I think we'll see a lot of "We need a man, take that man." or "We need a center now, take this center."

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I've always kinda wondered like... Best Player Available according to who? They don't go by any consensus list I'm aware of. So if it's BPA according to the Penguins scouting dept. and their like .150 batting average the last ten years or whatever then woof.