I don’t necessarily think Collins was a low-risk or low-upside pick. More medium. I’d point more toward Caulfield and Laatsch, maybe Yoder, as safe, low-upside wastes.
Collins had a low offensive output but he was on a low scoring team. Physical too, decent mobility. There’s some tools there. I think the hope was his offense would blossom a tad more. Laatsch and Caulfield have like 1 tool. Yoder and Caulfield were quite unproductive in the USNTDP, and more productive USNTDP players were available (Moynihan comes to mind).
It’s kind of a balancing act because if you went for pure upside, that is pure offensive upside, you’d have nothing but 5’9” 155 lb. guys from Minnesota high schools or some fishing village on the Bothnia. Or a guy torching the Q but he’s got 2 overager linemates and he skates like Jason Allison would today. Like Ben Eaves, Airola, Drozg, Almeida. But, like, a good 4th liner, not a vanilla one like Adams or Nieto but like a Matt Martin or Rempe, those are worth looking for later on. And size is still important. Physicality. You have to weigh those things in with pure skill and offensive talent. A 6’1” guy that scored 25 in the OHL might be the better selection than the 5’10” guy that scored 37 in the dub.
