Just out of morbid curiosity, how many of our "safe" picks actually panned out?
I guess it depends on which picks you consider "safe" or not.
2006:
Staal was probably a safe pick at 2nd. Strait was also a safe pick, who at least made for himself an NHL career (if only barely, thanks to his 16 playoff games on top of 187 regular season games).
2007:
Esposito was actually not really a safe pick? There were reasons he fell, but the Pens took a chance on his talent. Fortunately, they moved him before he went completely bust.
Bortuzzo and Jeffrey were probably the safest picks of that draft class, and they both produced NHL careers, in the end.
2008:
These were all late picks, and none of them panned out, but Moon and D'Agostino both had some promise of possible talent, and goaltenders are voodoo, so I won't even try to evaluate them.
2009:
Despres was definitely a very Shero pick. At least Despres technically had an NHL career, which is more than can be said of the rest of that draft class. I'd say Hanowski, Velischek and Ekbom were at least attempts to go for prospects who weren't "safe". They didn't pan out, though. Samuelsson and Bathgate were probably considered "safe" picks due to lineage, but, man, scouts definitely overrate family names at times, and the Pens scouts in particular were guilty of that at times.
2010:
Rust was probably the "safest" pick they made in that draft, and he's ended up being the best player from that year's Penguins' Draft Class. Bennett was a case of taking a risk on someone who developed his skills in roller hockey. Kuhnhackl was taking a chance on a kid who was scoring over in Germany (he didn't come over to the OHL until after he was drafted), though there was a bit of also taking his father into consideration as well, so I guess it depends on how you want to count this one. I don't recall any of the other picks as being particularly "swing for the fences" types, though obviously none of the rest panned out at all.
2011:
Joe Morrow was actually McKenzie's top-ranked player available at the time the Pens picked, as I recall, so even with Shero's propensity for taking defensemen, I have a hard time faulting this pick, without making use of hindsight. Harrington and Archibald were the safe picks of this draft class, and they managed to have NHL careers. Uher was probably the biggest swing for the fences they took, and he's the only one to completely bust out. Honestly, this was a pretty good draft year for the Pens - 5 picks, and 4 of them went on to have NHL careers, with two of them contributing to a Cup run.
2012:
Not much more to say about Pouliot here than has been said over the years on these boards. At least he had an NHL career.
Maatta was probably a reasonably "safe" pick, especially at 22nd, and he turned out pretty well for the Pens, no?
Blueger was a case of taking a chance on a kid who had shown some talent at Shattuck St. Mary's, as I recall. Sundqvist was someone who was probably a "safe" pick at the time he was taken, and he's done pretty well.
Maguire and Seymour were the "safe" picks of the late rounds, but Marcantuoni and Zlobin were also high-risk high-reward types (who both busted out).
Again, a pretty good draft for the Pens: 5 NHL players, including the goaltender who backstopped two Cup wins, and a defenseman who was a significant contributor for those same two Cups.
2013:
Guentzel was definitely a swing for the fences type, where they were taking a bet that he would grow after he was drafted.
None of the picks after Guentzel panned out, safe or risky.
2014:
Lafferty was basically a "safe" pick in that he was a low-ceiling low-risk player, and he's managed an NHL career.
2015:
Sprong, Simon, Tiffels and Pavlychev. Sprong was the "safest" pick of the lot.
2016-2017:
Probably the worst period of time with regards to picking "safe" over "risk/reward". Just terrible drafts all around for both years, where there weren't many big swings taken. These two drafts alone are probably the most impactful on where the Pens are now (in terms of lack of youth), since the last 2-3 years is when players from these drafts should have been starting to really take full-time jobs with the team.
2018:
Were any of these picks really "safe" picks? Granted, there were only 4 picks, and only Addison has made anything of himself, but I wouldn't say they went for safe choices there.
2019:
Poulin was probably the "safe" pick here. I don't know much about Caulfield, but the rest of the picks were definitely cases of taking chances on prospects who had at least one attribute that was intriguing.
After that point, I think it's still a bit too soon to really judge whether they're actually going to pan our or not (considering Puustinen only just got his first real shot this past season).
I'm not trying to defend taking safe picks, mind you - but there were quite a few "safe" picks who really did pan out. I just think that the bigger problem has just been not making space on the NHL roster for them to have a chance to make the team. I'd rather have given Hallander a chance than bringing back Archibald, or bringing in Caggiula during the 22/23 season, for example.
I've said it before, and I'll keep saying it - the Pens should really keep
at least 2-3 spots open on the roster every season for prospects to rotate through so they can see what they've got. With where the Pens are at now, I'd increase that number, really.
