Big Friggin Dummy
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Prospect Info: Pittsburgh Penguins Prospects Thread: 2023-2024 Edition
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Ryder71
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- Nov 24, 2017
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Freeptop
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That's not really true, though?
I'd agree that outside the top 10 you're much less likely to get a star player, but an "NHLer"? If we take a pretty typical definition of that as "plays in at least 200 NHL games", then most first rounders accomplish that.
Let's look at some numbers - I chose a timeframe of 2010-2015, because that's far enough back that anyone picked in those drafts is realistically going to have reached 200 games if they're going to by now, and it gives us a solid sample size to work from (I'd go for a 10 year sample, but I do need to get some real work done...
)To keep things as apples-to-apples comparisons, I'm going to go based on overall selection, rather than "first round", since the first round has increased its size over the last few years.
1-10: Total picks: 60, of which 56 played 200 or more NHL games: 93%
11-20: Total picks: 47/60 = 78%
21-30: Total picks: 29/60 = 48%
Yeah, it drops off pretty quickly, but even with that, almost half the picks from 21-30 were NHLers.
Given that Yager was picked 14th, I have a hard time calling his chances a "long shot".
Maybe the argument is over what would count as an "NHLer"? You could increase the number of games to 350-400 (~4.5-5.0 years), and while the numbers would drop a little, they wouldn't drop by all that much. (I'd probably want to shift the window back further, though, to account for time to reach the NHL and have enough time to accumulate that number of games, though).
Big Friggin Dummy
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I mean, Tangradi had 150 NHL games, and would've had more if the Isles didn't bring out some comic book villain to try and shatter his skull. I wouldn't really call Tangradi anything of a real NHLer in the sense that he was a guy who contributed to a team in any notable degree. /shrugThat's not really true, though?
I'd agree that outside the top 10 you're much less likely to get a star player, but an "NHLer"? If we take a pretty typical definition of that as "plays in at least 200 NHL games", then most first rounders accomplish that.
Let's look at some numbers - I chose a timeframe of 2010-2015, because that's far enough back that anyone picked in those drafts is realistically going to have reached 200 games if they're going to by now, and it gives us a solid sample size to work from (I'd go for a 10 year sample, but I do need to get some real work done...
To keep things as apples-to-apples comparisons, I'm going to go based on overall selection, rather than "first round", since the first round has increased its size over the last few years.
1-10: Total picks: 60, of which 56 played 200 or more NHL games: 93%
11-20: Total picks: 47/60 = 78%
21-30: Total picks: 29/60 = 48%
Yeah, it drops off pretty quickly, but even with that, almost half the picks from 21-30 were NHLers.
Given that Yager was picked 14th, I have a hard time calling his chances a "long shot".
Maybe the argument is over what would count as an "NHLer"? You could increase the number of games to 350-400 (~4.5-5.0 years), and while the numbers would drop a little, they wouldn't drop by all that much. (I'd probably want to shift the window back further, though, to account for time to reach the NHL and have enough time to accumulate that number of games, though).
I'm talking about a guy who is gonna make an impact. Shit, Pouliot's got like 225 games under his belt at this level and he's been a hot coiled dog turd the entire way.
As for Yager, my "might not be an NHLer" is more to the degree of him being a guy who matters at this level. Lots of guys end up playing a surprising amount of games that don't mean shit. Another example is our good pal Ruhwedel. The list is endless. I'm sure Yager will get a good number of NHL games under his belt, but it remains to be seen whether he's an NHLer that makes a difference (not even talking about a star or anything). I definitely should've been more clear, tbh. That's my bad.
Ryder71
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- Nov 24, 2017
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Jordan Staal averaged a point a game his final year in Junior (28 goals) and went 2hd overall. He's considered good all around player. Not dynamic but very solid. Yager IMO is displaying better offensive acumen than Staal did at the same age, and he's good away from the puck. Not physically imposing but not a liability defensively. Just saying his offensive stats are a bit lackluster but Staals were even more pedestrian. We got a long way to go.
Yager also posted 6g 10a in 10 playoff games, So he ended the year very strong.
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OtherThingsILike
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Sergei Murashov with a nice assist.
On his way to his second shutout of the MHL season.
On his way to his second shutout of the MHL season.
OtherThingsILike
Registered User
Also, Scott Wheeler wrote an article about Brayden Yager on the Athletic.
theathletic.com
Why Penguins prospect Brayden Yager is so much more than just a scorer
Yager stood out as an explosive player when he was just 13. Now, he's a decorated NHL prospect with a rounded game and a lengthy to-do list.
theathletic.com
Tasty Biscuits
with fancy sauce
Scott Wheeler is gonna have a hard time living down his Tyler Boucher debacle. Never seemed like a super knowledgeable hockey guy (just from a nuts 'n bolts perspective of understanding the game) to begin with.
Big Friggin Dummy
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Looks like he's rounding into form after startng out with a mid 80 save % after the first few games.
WickedWrister
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Thought this part of the article was interesting regarding his weight,Also, Scott Wheeler wrote an article about Brayden Yager on the Athletic.
Why Penguins prospect Brayden Yager is so much more than just a scorer
Yager stood out as an explosive player when he was just 13. Now, he's a decorated NHL prospect with a rounded game and a lengthy to-do list.
"This summer was about a new reinvention, one focused on building in the gym with his strength coach Blaine Whyte.
The Penguins’ rookie camp roster listed him at 6 feet and 170 pounds, which he knew made him the third-lightest player on the team.
Adding weight, he admitted, has always been “super hard” for him. This summer, after the Penguins gave him a nutrition play at development camp, he ate six meals a day, trained constantly in the gym with NHLers like Braden Schneider and Darcy Kuemper, and still only gained six pounds.
Then he went to Moose Jaw’s camp, where full days at the rink and twice-daily skates made keeping with six meals an impossibility. He has continued to fit in snacks of nuts and Greek yogurt wherever possible, but says he has already lost a little bit of weight between Moose Jaw and the rookie tournament."
CheckingLineCenter
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- Aug 10, 2018
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All of Wheeler’s output is fluff/puff pieces and made up scouting reports.
Pronman’s gotten a little worse (I don’t understand his grading system) but all that guy does is go to rinks and watch hockey so while I don’t think you can have a good grasp of all the prospects in the draft and already drafted, I do think he’s legit.
Pronman’s gotten a little worse (I don’t understand his grading system) but all that guy does is go to rinks and watch hockey so while I don’t think you can have a good grasp of all the prospects in the draft and already drafted, I do think he’s legit.
he may end up being a winger.
Jacob
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18 year olds can gain muscle just by looking at weights. 170 is fine. 185 is reasonable in 2 years.
SomeDude
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Yager is actually a genius. Act like a grinder to get drafted and played by Mike Sullivan and then pull the ol’ switcheroo and start scoring to the point he cant take you out of the lineup.
i know that works with 35-40 year olds, (heck you don't even have to look at the weights, just look at food) but i hope your right with 18 yr. olds
When he is 22 or so he can be a bigger player due to programs in the off season and some natural maturity. He is never going to be a 6-0 210 pound center but he can be 185 to 190 which is plenty big enough.
Jacob
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If flashscores.com is reliable Ilyin is getting about 13 minutes on Cherepovets 3rd line which seems quite good all things considered. Apparently on the wing.
They also have Pieniniemi at 14 minutes today with 5 SOG. That’s 5 minutes more than Bjorkqvist. He has 1 assist in 4 games.
They also have Pieniniemi at 14 minutes today with 5 SOG. That’s 5 minutes more than Bjorkqvist. He has 1 assist in 4 games.
WickedWrister
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Malkinstheman
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Really strong starts for our 3 Russian prospects. Hopefully Murashov and Tankov can get some time in the KHL this season. Also, Ilyin has been outscoring first rounder But so far. Ilyin has 5 points in 10 games and But is scoreless in 5 lol.
nice to see him back to shooting instead of trying to force a pass to one of his wingers
Jacob
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Ilyin’s outscoring like every Russian prospect picked this year or last year.
wheelz87
LGP
yager 1+1 including the OT winner.
moose jaw expected to be any good?
moose jaw expected to be any good?
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