OT: Pirates Talk: That Skenes guy is okay at teh baseball

[DJ Spinoza]

That's true, but we're also talking about a 27-year old. Maybe he has a Max Muncy type career arc, but his upside is probably more like 3 or 4 solid years. His upside will especially be in his dirt cheap years, since he doesn't have much of a carrying tool, but in fairness to him he could carve out a floor path with consistent OBP if he's able to maintain the solid power year over year (a nicer way to say he's basically worthless if he starts hitting 12ish HRs a year max).

 

[ImporterExporter]

The only way this team wins anything of note is by literally pulling off this.



"This guy's here is DEAD"

Also, the amount of times I've said "Giiiivvvvee eeeeummmm the hearterrrrrrr" at games and in general life is too many to count haha.

 

[Empoleon8771]

That's true, but we're also talking about a 27-year old. Maybe he has a Max Muncy type career arc, but his upside is probably more like 3 or 4 solid years. His upside will especially be in his dirt cheap years, since he doesn't have much of a carrying tool, but in fairness to him he could carve out a floor path with consistent OBP if he's able to maintain the solid power year over year (a nicer way to say he's basically worthless if he starts hitting 12ish HRs a year max).

Yeah my point wasn't to say you were wrong, but it makes sense for why Horwitz had much more value than Naylor. That said, I think there's a legit argument that they should have traded less for Naylor even though he would almost definitely be a pure rental.



Looks like Cleveland replaced Naylor with Santana.

 

[BusinessGoose]

What does it feel like to sign free agents? Lol

 

[MrBrightside]

Josh Naylor last 3 years

123 OPS+
6.8 fWAR

Bryan a Reynolds last 3 years

119 OPS+
7.0 fWAR

 

[Empoleon8771]

Josh Naylor last 3 years

123 OPS+
6.8 fWAR

Bryan a Reynolds last 3 years

119 OPS+
7.0 fWAR

I don’t think anyone thinks Naylor isn’t good, it’s just that he’s a pure rental that almost assuredly wouldn’t be re-signed by the Pirates.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don’t think anyone thinks Naylor isn’t good, it’s just that he’s a pure rental that almost assuredly wouldn’t be re-signed by the Pirates.

Yes but point being, they gave up the equivalent of what we paid for BDLC. Why don't we just do that?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yes but point being, they gave up the equivalent of what we paid for BDLC. Why don't we just do that?

Meh they would have just been in the same spot in a year with needing a 1B to replace Naylor. I don't mind trading Ortiz for Horwitz and getting the 1B position locked up long-term.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Meh they would have just been in the same spot in a year with needing a 1B to replace Naylor. I don't mind trading Ortiz for Horwitz and getting the 1B position locked up long-term.

Sure, but then trade for Adolis Garcia or someone else interesting. It doesn't cost much. Maybe they get Yaz.

 

[MrBrightside]

Meh they would have just been in the same spot in a year with needing a 1B to replace Naylor. I don't mind trading Ortiz for Horwitz and getting the 1B position locked up long-term.

While I'm all for "locking up" the 1B position long term, the idea that a 27-year-old with less than 400 MLB AB's who lacks power can be counted on as a long term solution is serious optimism. I don't mind losing Ortiz, but these low ceiling acquisitions aren't moving the needle, even if they may be around for a few years.

 

[since70]

I think we all know that an FA of value is not coming here, because the Pirates aren't going to meet their salary demands, so the only way to get someone of value is through a trade, so what trade currency does the franchise have and does the FO have the ability to maximize that currency, then there's the problem of years of control without having to shell out big money, because we all know how that movie ends, and there's the playoff window to consider with the roster building. History isn't on our side with this one guys, unless everything falls just right we ain't seeing the playoffs or WS until the league puts emphasis on competitiveness over cash, and that isn't happening.

 

[Empoleon8771]

While I'm all for "locking up" the 1B position long term, the idea that a 27-year-old with less than 400 MLB AB's who lacks power can be counted on as a long term solution is serious optimism. I don't mind losing Ortiz, but these low ceiling acquisitions aren't moving the needle, even if they may be around for a few years.

Horwitz has hit at every level and has a MLB OPS+ on par with Reynolds. I'm not seeing what's "seriously optimistic" about assuming that he'll be able to provide sufficient hitting at 1B going forward. He doesn't have ideal power you want out of a 1B, but he has a career .307/.413/.471 slash line in the minors and a .264/.355/.428 slash line in the majors over 2400 career PAs and averaged a HR every 40 ABs in the minors. For comparison, Reynolds' minor league slash line was .312/.373/.472 over 1200 PAs and he averaged a HR every 39 ABs in the minors.

I'm obviously not going to equate Horwitz as the next Reynolds because Reynolds had a huge power surge going from the minors to the majors, he went from a HR every 39 ABs in the minors to a HR every 24 ABs in the majors. There are also things that Reynolds has/had that Horwitz doesn't have, namely good defense in the OF (in the past) and good speed. That said, I don't see anything statistically that makes me doubt that Horwitz should be a good or better MLB hitter going forward. He has the good minor league numbers, good major league numbers and good batted ball data in the majors (60th percentile xBA, 74th percentile xwOBA and 61st percentile xSLG). He just doesn't have the ideal HR power you want out of a 1B, his hitter profile is that of a good hitting LF or 2B.

I said this earlier in the off-season, but if Horwitz was a solid defensively LFer and they signed Walker to play 1B, I'd be over the moon happy with this off-season.

 

[MrBrightside]

Horwitz has hit at every level and has a MLB OPS+ on par with Reynolds. I'm not seeing what's "seriously optimistic" about assuming that he'll be able to provide sufficient hitting at 1B going forward. He doesn't have ideal power you want out of a 1B, but he has a career .307/.413/.471 slash line in the minors and a .264/.355/.428 slash line in the majors over 2400 career PAs and averaged a HR every 40 ABs in the minors. For comparison, Reynolds' minor league slash line was .312/.373/.472 over 1200 PAs and he averaged a HR every 39 ABs in the minors.

I'm obviously not going to equate Horwitz as the next Reynolds because Reynolds had a huge power surge going from the minors to the majors, he went from a HR every 39 ABs in the minors to a HR every 24 ABs in the majors. There are also things that Reynolds has/had that Horwitz doesn't have, namely good defense in the OF (in the past) and good speed. That said, I don't see anything statistically that makes me doubt that Horwitz should be a good or better MLB hitter going forward. He has the good minor league numbers, good major league numbers and good batted ball data in the majors (60th percentile xBA, 74th percentile xwOBA and 61st percentile xSLG). He just doesn't have the ideal HR power you want out of a 1B, his hitter profile is that of a good hitting LF or 2B.

I said this earlier in the off-season, but if Horwitz was a solid defensively LFer and they signed Walker to play 1B, I'd be over the moon happy with this off-season.

Citing to what a guy did in the minor leagues between ages 23-26 as evidence that he'll be a good major league hitter is part of the issue. The vast majority of regular everyday MLB hitters are in the majors by age 23 or 24, not repeating AAA. He's never hit lefties (at least not in the upper minors or majors) and I frankly don't really care what his OBP is - you can't have a 1B who lacks power if you have 3 other starting IF who are all 10-15 HR max kind of guys. On a real team Horwitz profiles as a spot starter/platoon guy who ideally gets 300-400 AB's in good situations, not the centerpiece of your offseason and certainly not a guy you look at and think you've solved 1B for the next 5 years. We will agree to disagree.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Citing to what a guy did in the minor leagues between ages 23-26 as evidence that he'll be a good major league hitter is part of the issue. The vast majority of regular everyday MLB hitters are in the majors by age 23 or 24, not repeating AAA. He's never hit lefties (at least not in the upper minors or majors) and I frankly don't really care what his OBP is - you can't have a 1B who lacks power if you have 3 other starting IF who are all 10-15 HR max kind of guys. On a real team Horwitz profiles as a spot starter/platoon guy who ideally gets 300-400 AB's in good situations, not the centerpiece of your offseason and certainly not a guy you look at and think you've solved 1B for the next 5 years. We will agree to disagree.

We need to see how Horowitz does, but you are pretty badly ignoring his circumstances as a late-round pick who had to wait 2 years to show he was much better than his draft position due to the lost COVID season. A viable major league team who completed in the bloodbath AL East had Horowitz hitting either 2nd or 4th last year.

I agree with you on a lot of subjects, but this is where if the Steelers did something similar you'd be Pollyanna about it.

 

[MrBrightside]

We need to see how Horowitz does, but you are pretty badly ignoring his circumstances as a late-round pick who had to wait 2 years to show he was much better than his draft position due to the lost COVID season. A viable major league team who completed in the bloodbath AL East had Horowitz hitting either 2nd or 4th last year.

I agree with you on a lot of subjects, but this is where if the Steelers did something similar you'd be Pollyanna about it.

Well, the Steelers haven't had a losing season since 2003 while the Pirates have have 30 in the last 34 years, so benefits of the doubt are a bit different.

Setting that aside, you're correct we need to wait and see. I hope the guy is a stud and yinz come back and remind me how wrong I was. I just see a low ceiling player at a position and on a team that needs power and high ceiling players. He's fine. He's not useless. But the idea that we're ALL SET at 1B for the next 5 years is just silly to me. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Well, the Steelers haven't had a losing season since 2003 while the Pirates have have 30 in the last 34 years, so benefits of the doubt are a bit different.

Setting that aside, you're correct we need to wait and see. I hope the guy is a stud and yinz come back and remind me how wrong I was. I just see a low ceiling player at a position and on a team that needs power and high ceiling players. He's fine. He's not useless. But the idea that we're ALL SET at 1B for the next 5 years is just silly to me. Hope I'm wrong.

When it comes to winning, the Steelers have been pretty bad. Except on consistently beating terrible teams. Without a salary cap if the Steelers could only spend 60% as much as the average team, they would also fare terribly.

I would prefer Josh Naylor, for sure. And I hate that RF isn't addressed, the SP isn't addressed, RP isn't addressed, and it sure looks like Bob is going to clear another $40M this year unless he gets Luigi'd first (prayers up). I think Ben Cherington is mid, or worse, and I think there's a good chance we end up regretting getting rid of Ortiz in favor of keeping a mental midget like Mitch Keller.

But in of itself, if Horowitz can replicate his 2024 at the plate that would be great outcome for this team.

 

[Empoleon8771]

In his 4 years in the minors after COVID, here is how he performed:

2021: .294/.400/.462 slash line for an OPS of .862 between A+ and AA at age 23
2022: .275/.391/.452 slash line for an OPS of .843 between AA and AAA at age 24
2023: .337/.450/.495 slash line for an OPS of .945 in AAA at age 25
2024: .335/.456/.514 slash line for an OPS of .970 in AAA at age 26

His performance in 2022, especially with how he started in AA (.297/.413/.517 slash line in 70 games in AA to start that year) likely would have resulted in a MLB call-up years earlier if he wasn't on the Jays. The issue was that the Jays just didn't have a spot for him because they had his 3 spots (1B, 2B and DH) all filled with legitimately good MLBers. In 2022, the Jays had all-stars at literally all 3 of those spots, they had Guerrero at 1B, Espinal at 2B and a rotation of Kirk, Springer and Guerrero at DH. The same thing happened in 2023, they had Guerrero at 1B, Merrifield at 2B (who somehow made the all-star game) and Belt at DH.

We need to see how Horowitz does, but you are pretty badly ignoring his circumstances as a late-round pick who had to wait 2 years to show he was much better than his draft position due to the lost COVID season. A viable major league team who completed in the bloodbath AL East had Horowitz hitting either 2nd or 4th last year.

I agree with you on a lot of subjects, but this is where if the Steelers did something similar you'd be Pollyanna about it.

And I think his draft position is another aspect in this as well. He didn't have any super special prospect upside, he wasn't even a top-30 prospect after his 2021 season.

I just think mentioning that he didn't fully establish himself until age 26 without looking at the context of the situation feels super disingenuous. By the time he was mashing and fully showing he deserved a MLB shot, he was stuck behind a team with multiple all-stars playing his only positions. Had he been on the Pirates, he probably would have made his debut in 2022 and spent all of 2023 as a regular. That would have had him debuting at the same exact age as Reynolds.

Citing to what a guy did in the minor leagues between ages 23-26 as evidence that he'll be a good major league hitter is part of the issue. The vast majority of regular everyday MLB hitters are in the majors by age 23 or 24, not repeating AAA. He's never hit lefties (at least not in the upper minors or majors) and I frankly don't really care what his OBP is - you can't have a 1B who lacks power if you have 3 other starting IF who are all 10-15 HR max kind of guys. On a real team Horwitz profiles as a spot starter/platoon guy who ideally gets 300-400 AB's in good situations, not the centerpiece of your offseason and certainly not a guy you look at and think you've solved 1B for the next 5 years. We will agree to disagree.

Reynolds age 21: .313/.363/.483 slash line for an .847 OPS between A- and A
Reynolds age 22: .312/.364/.462 slash line for an OPS of .826 in A+
Reynolds age 23: .302/.381/.438 slash line for an OPS of .819 in AA

Horwitz age 21: .307/.368/.440 slash line for an OPS of .808 between Rookie and A-
Horwitz age 22: season lost due to COVID
Horwitz age 23: .294/.400/.462 slash line for an OPS of .862 between A+ and AA

Horwitz performed comparably from age 21-23 as Reynolds, Horwitz just got screwed by COVID which set his development a year back. His age 24 season was better than Reynolds' age 23 season (.275/.391/.452 slash line for an OPS of .843), but he then had to spend an entire season murdering AAA in 2023 because Toronto didn't have a spot for him in the majors.

 

[MrBrightside]

In his 4 years in the minors after COVID, here is how he performed:

2021: .294/.400/.462 slash line for an OPS of .862 between A+ and AA at age 23
2022: .275/.391/.452 slash line for an OPS of .843 between AA and AAA at age 24
2023: .337/.450/.495 slash line for an OPS of .945 in AAA at age 25
2024: .335/.456/.514 slash line for an OPS of .970 in AAA at age 26

His performance in 2022, especially with how he started in AA (.297/.413/.517 slash line in 70 games in AA to start that year) likely would have resulted in a MLB call-up years earlier if he wasn't on the Jays. The issue was that the Jays just didn't have a spot for him because they had his 3 spots (1B, 2B and DH) all filled with legitimately good MLBers. In 2022, the Jays had all-stars at literally all 3 of those spots, they had Guerrero at 1B, Espinal at 2B and a rotation of Kirk, Springer and Guerrero at DH. The same thing happened in 2023, they had Guerrero at 1B, Merrifield at 2B (who somehow made the all-star game) and Belt at DH.



And I think his draft position is another aspect in this as well. He didn't have any super special prospect upside, he wasn't even a top-30 prospect after his 2021 season.

I just think mentioning that he didn't fully establish himself until age 26 without looking at the context of the situation feels super disingenuous. By the time he was mashing and fully showing he deserved a MLB shot, he was stuck behind a team with multiple all-stars playing his only positions. Had he been on the Pirates, he probably would have made his debut in 2022 and spent all of 2023 as a regular. That would have had him debuting at the same exact age as Reynolds.

Why do we keep comparing him to Reynolds? But if we are going to, Reynolds had a 4.2 bWAR season in the majors at the same age that Horwitz was in AA/AAA. People can use whatever excuses or rationales as they want for Horwitz, but ignoring the age he is as just an inconvenient coincidence is silly. Yes, there are some guys who crack the majors at age 26 that make it. The vast majority become Jared Triolo. I'm done with discussion as I'd rather you be right and I be wrong, but your ability to talk yourself into being giddy with anything that this shit organization does has no limits.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Why do we keep comparing him to Reynolds? But if we are going to, Reynolds had a 4.2 bWAR season in the majors at the same age that Horwitz was in AA/AAA. People can use whatever excuses or rationales as they want for Horwitz, but ignoring the age he is as just an inconvenient coincidence is silly. Yes, there are some guys who crack the majors at age 26 that make it. The vast majority become Jared Triolo. I'm done with discussion as I'd rather you be right and I be wrong, but your ability to talk yourself into being giddy with anything that this shit organization does has no limits.

Which you're once again ignoring:

1. Horwitz was a year behind Reynolds due to a season lost due to COVID.
2. Toronto had 3 all-star players in both 2022 and 2023 that all played the same 3 positions that Horwitz played (Guerrero, Espinal and Kirk/Springer in 2022, Guerrero, Merrifield and Belt/Springer in 2023), where he would have made his debut and likely would have solidified himself as a MLBer years earlier if he wasn't on a team where he was blocked.

That's not "making excuses", that's simply stating facts.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I will add that they need another big offensive addition particularly at RF in either scenario. If Horowitz is all we end up with, that is a failure.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think it can be overstated just how good of depth Toronto has had at the 1B/2B/DH positions in the past few years which were entirely a hinderance for Horwitz making the MLB. Here is how the positions split in 2022 and 2023 as Horwitz was crushing it in AAA:

2022:

1B: .268/.334/.462 slash line for an OPS of .796, 113 sOPS+ (OPSs relative to league average for that position)
2B: .272/.333/.398 slash line for an OPS of .731, 109 sOPS+
DH: .251/.334/.425 slash line for an OPS of .758, 114 sOPS+

2023:

1B: .273/.363/.447 slash line for an OPS of .810, 110 sOPS+
2B: .257/.341/.379 slash line for an OPS of .719, 100 sOPS+
DH: .236/.332/.437 slash line for an OPS of .769, 104 sOPS+

The Jays got insane offensive stats out of 1B (mostly Guerrero Jr) and DH (mix of Kirk, Guerrero Jr, Springer and Belt) and got good offense out of 2B with strong defense (mostly Espinal, Biggio Jr, Merrifield and Schneider). I don't want to calculate it for DH because it's tough to split up that kind of value with Kirk and Springer getting a lot of opportunities to hit, but the Jays averaged about 4 WAR a year out of their 1Bs and 3 WAR a year out of their 2Bs over those 2 years.

Could Horwitz end up not a good MLB hitter? Yeah, sure. But mentioning him not breaking out into a MLBer until he was 26 without mentioning the year lost due to COVID or Toronto's insanely good collection of 1B/2B/DH talent over the past couple of years isn't one of those reasons.

 

[MrBrightside]