OT: Pirates Talk: That Skenes guy is okay at teh baseball

[DJ Spinoza]

That's true, but we're also talking about a 27-year old. Maybe he has a Max Muncy type career arc, but his upside is probably more like 3 or 4 solid years. His upside will especially be in his dirt cheap years, since he doesn't have much of a carrying tool, but in fairness to him he could carve out a floor path with consistent OBP if he's able to maintain the solid power year over year (a nicer way to say he's basically worthless if he starts hitting 12ish HRs a year max).

 

[ImporterExporter]

The only way this team wins anything of note is by literally pulling off this.



"This guy's here is DEAD"

Also, the amount of times I've said "Giiiivvvvee eeeeummmm the hearterrrrrrr" at games and in general life is too many to count haha.

 

[Empoleon8771]

That's true, but we're also talking about a 27-year old. Maybe he has a Max Muncy type career arc, but his upside is probably more like 3 or 4 solid years. His upside will especially be in his dirt cheap years, since he doesn't have much of a carrying tool, but in fairness to him he could carve out a floor path with consistent OBP if he's able to maintain the solid power year over year (a nicer way to say he's basically worthless if he starts hitting 12ish HRs a year max).

Yeah my point wasn't to say you were wrong, but it makes sense for why Horwitz had much more value than Naylor. That said, I think there's a legit argument that they should have traded less for Naylor even though he would almost definitely be a pure rental.



Looks like Cleveland replaced Naylor with Santana.

 

[BusinessGoose]

What does it feel like to sign free agents? Lol

 

[MrBrightside]

Josh Naylor last 3 years

123 OPS+
6.8 fWAR

Bryan a Reynolds last 3 years

119 OPS+
7.0 fWAR

 

[Empoleon8771]

Josh Naylor last 3 years

123 OPS+
6.8 fWAR

Bryan a Reynolds last 3 years

119 OPS+
7.0 fWAR

I don’t think anyone thinks Naylor isn’t good, it’s just that he’s a pure rental that almost assuredly wouldn’t be re-signed by the Pirates.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don’t think anyone thinks Naylor isn’t good, it’s just that he’s a pure rental that almost assuredly wouldn’t be re-signed by the Pirates.

Yes but point being, they gave up the equivalent of what we paid for BDLC. Why don't we just do that?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yes but point being, they gave up the equivalent of what we paid for BDLC. Why don't we just do that?

Meh they would have just been in the same spot in a year with needing a 1B to replace Naylor. I don't mind trading Ortiz for Horwitz and getting the 1B position locked up long-term.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Meh they would have just been in the same spot in a year with needing a 1B to replace Naylor. I don't mind trading Ortiz for Horwitz and getting the 1B position locked up long-term.

Sure, but then trade for Adolis Garcia or someone else interesting. It doesn't cost much. Maybe they get Yaz.

 

[MrBrightside]

Meh they would have just been in the same spot in a year with needing a 1B to replace Naylor. I don't mind trading Ortiz for Horwitz and getting the 1B position locked up long-term.

While I'm all for "locking up" the 1B position long term, the idea that a 27-year-old with less than 400 MLB AB's who lacks power can be counted on as a long term solution is serious optimism. I don't mind losing Ortiz, but these low ceiling acquisitions aren't moving the needle, even if they may be around for a few years.

 

[since70]

I think we all know that an FA of value is not coming here, because the Pirates aren't going to meet their salary demands, so the only way to get someone of value is through a trade, so what trade currency does the franchise have and does the FO have the ability to maximize that currency, then there's the problem of years of control without having to shell out big money, because we all know how that movie ends, and there's the playoff window to consider with the roster building. History isn't on our side with this one guys, unless everything falls just right we ain't seeing the playoffs or WS until the league puts emphasis on competitiveness over cash, and that isn't happening.

 

[Empoleon8771]

While I'm all for "locking up" the 1B position long term, the idea that a 27-year-old with less than 400 MLB AB's who lacks power can be counted on as a long term solution is serious optimism. I don't mind losing Ortiz, but these low ceiling acquisitions aren't moving the needle, even if they may be around for a few years.

Horwitz has hit at every level and has a MLB OPS+ on par with Reynolds. I'm not seeing what's "seriously optimistic" about assuming that he'll be able to provide sufficient hitting at 1B going forward. He doesn't have ideal power you want out of a 1B, but he has a career .307/.413/.471 slash line in the minors and a .264/.355/.428 slash line in the majors over 2400 career PAs and averaged a HR every 40 ABs in the minors. For comparison, Reynolds' minor league slash line was .312/.373/.472 over 1200 PAs and he averaged a HR every 39 ABs in the minors.

I'm obviously not going to equate Horwitz as the next Reynolds because Reynolds had a huge power surge going from the minors to the majors, he went from a HR every 39 ABs in the minors to a HR every 24 ABs in the majors. There are also things that Reynolds has/had that Horwitz doesn't have, namely good defense in the OF (in the past) and good speed. That said, I don't see anything statistically that makes me doubt that Horwitz should be a good or better MLB hitter going forward. He has the good minor league numbers, good major league numbers and good batted ball data in the majors (60th percentile xBA, 74th percentile xwOBA and 61st percentile xSLG). He just doesn't have the ideal HR power you want out of a 1B, his hitter profile is that of a good hitting LF or 2B.

I said this earlier in the off-season, but if Horwitz was a solid defensively LFer and they signed Walker to play 1B, I'd be over the moon happy with this off-season.

 

[MrBrightside]

Horwitz has hit at every level and has a MLB OPS+ on par with Reynolds. I'm not seeing what's "seriously optimistic" about assuming that he'll be able to provide sufficient hitting at 1B going forward. He doesn't have ideal power you want out of a 1B, but he has a career .307/.413/.471 slash line in the minors and a .264/.355/.428 slash line in the majors over 2400 career PAs and averaged a HR every 40 ABs in the minors. For comparison, Reynolds' minor league slash line was .312/.373/.472 over 1200 PAs and he averaged a HR every 39 ABs in the minors.

I'm obviously not going to equate Horwitz as the next Reynolds because Reynolds had a huge power surge going from the minors to the majors, he went from a HR every 39 ABs in the minors to a HR every 24 ABs in the majors. There are also things that Reynolds has/had that Horwitz doesn't have, namely good defense in the OF (in the past) and good speed. That said, I don't see anything statistically that makes me doubt that Horwitz should be a good or better MLB hitter going forward. He has the good minor league numbers, good major league numbers and good batted ball data in the majors (60th percentile xBA, 74th percentile xwOBA and 61st percentile xSLG). He just doesn't have the ideal HR power you want out of a 1B, his hitter profile is that of a good hitting LF or 2B.

I said this earlier in the off-season, but if Horwitz was a solid defensively LFer and they signed Walker to play 1B, I'd be over the moon happy with this off-season.

Citing to what a guy did in the minor leagues between ages 23-26 as evidence that he'll be a good major league hitter is part of the issue. The vast majority of regular everyday MLB hitters are in the majors by age 23 or 24, not repeating AAA. He's never hit lefties (at least not in the upper minors or majors) and I frankly don't really care what his OBP is - you can't have a 1B who lacks power if you have 3 other starting IF who are all 10-15 HR max kind of guys. On a real team Horwitz profiles as a spot starter/platoon guy who ideally gets 300-400 AB's in good situations, not the centerpiece of your offseason and certainly not a guy you look at and think you've solved 1B for the next 5 years. We will agree to disagree.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Citing to what a guy did in the minor leagues between ages 23-26 as evidence that he'll be a good major league hitter is part of the issue. The vast majority of regular everyday MLB hitters are in the majors by age 23 or 24, not repeating AAA. He's never hit lefties (at least not in the upper minors or majors) and I frankly don't really care what his OBP is - you can't have a 1B who lacks power if you have 3 other starting IF who are all 10-15 HR max kind of guys. On a real team Horwitz profiles as a spot starter/platoon guy who ideally gets 300-400 AB's in good situations, not the centerpiece of your offseason and certainly not a guy you look at and think you've solved 1B for the next 5 years. We will agree to disagree.

We need to see how Horowitz does, but you are pretty badly ignoring his circumstances as a late-round pick who had to wait 2 years to show he was much better than his draft position due to the lost COVID season. A viable major league team who completed in the bloodbath AL East had Horowitz hitting either 2nd or 4th last year.

I agree with you on a lot of subjects, but this is where if the Steelers did something similar you'd be Pollyanna about it.