Phoenix LXXX: Is there another way out?

[Fenway]

I think the drop dead day is the draft.

I sense Quebecor is already to go just waiting for the go ahead.

 

[OthmarAmmann]

PHOENIX LXXXI: Spastically Overreact

Seconded

 

[viper0220]

I think the drop dead day is the draft.

I sense Quebecor is already to go just waiting for the go ahead.

Is that not wayyyy to late?

 

[Fenway]

I don't think we can assume that, with the Illuminati-like secrecy that surrounds the NHL we can't really know. It's more than likely they have a mountain of relocation offers, not only from the usual suspects but also from places we haven't even considered.

The reason for not pursuing them I believe has more to do with ego more than anything else. Much like the silver age comic book super-villain, it doesn't occur to Bettman that there are easier ways to accomplish ones goals...

The NY Times looked at the relocation options.

 

[David_99]

I agree. There's not a hard deadline here. I'd give it till mid-June.

Yeah, I mean, let the CoG open their envelops first. How foolish would the NHL feel if they up and moved the team on Friday, only to find out there were no serious or acceptable offers to manage the arena in Glendale (however unlikely)? The City must make the next move.

 

[LeafShark]

Is that not wayyyy to late?

It's never too late... worst come to worst, the NHL will either delay the season, or have insert relocated market here play on the road for the first month.

 

[Fenway]

Is that not wayyyy to late?

Not really - TV deal is done since Quebecor owns the channel.

Tickets would be sold in an hour - the only heavy lifting is getting the Colisee set and the mayor says he only needs 90 days.

 

[Killion]

I don't think the NHL did put a back up offer for staying in Glendale for another year while still running the arena for two reason.

First it undermine RSE bid by taking the threat of relocation off the table. Glendale could take that offer kick that can down the road another year in the hope that a new better deal for them come up.

Second Glendale is not interested in the NHL running their arena anymore they did such a crappy job that nobody want them to do it again. They know that the city is better off giving the management to a third party who would actually work on booking the place than the NHL who will do the bare minimum to pocket most of the AMF.

Very good points madhi. Your quite right. Renaissance would lose leverage, it takes the threat of immediate relocation off the table and thirdly, Weiers & some of the Councillors appear unwilling at this stage to further entrust the NHL with Arena Management at any price despite the guaranteed 41 home dates and importance on having the team remain. They could very well be thinking they let the NHL swing for it, as there can be no love lost due to the leagues appalling track record in maximizing revenues over the past 4yrs along with its obstinacy in failing to facilitate a local sale that doesnt include massive subsidies from the taxpayer, pushing Glendale to the brink of having to declare municipal bankruptcy.

I don't think we can assume that, with the Illuminati-like secrecy that surrounds the NHL we can't really know. It's more than likely they have a mountain of relocation offers, not only from the usual suspects but also from places we haven't even considered.

This is entirely possible, something I and others have certainly considered. There could be someone somewhere beyond QC way off radar, but I doubt it. As Llama & others have opined, for Bettman to play The Illusionist with some Great Reveal, just not seeing it. Something wouldve leaked. They could use the leverage in playing whomever against almost all parties involved, and I dont think they'd leave that card untouched. Seattle a good example of that. No way no how could thatve been pulled off without massive costs & losses short-term, while long-term absent Hansens ownership stake in an NHL franchise, and he controlling the arena, absolutely doomed unless he hands over all revenue streams, a portion of naming rights etc etc etc, and can you see anyone doing that? Someone who in this case wouldve dropped about a Billion on an NBA franchise & arena?

 

[No Fun Shogun]

The NY Times looked at the relocation options.

Don't get me wrong, I did enjoy the piece, but that was actually one bit of it that I thought was particularly nonsensical. Seems extremely useless to compare the number of hockey fans in American markets without NHL teams but teams in other sports versus the number of hockey fans in Canadian markets without NHL teams and no teams in other major sports, or only one if you include the CFL.

Does anyone think that Seattle would only have 240,000 fans if the NHL set up shop there? Or Houston only having 140,000? Those are both big sports markets with their fair share of professional and collegiate sports alternatives that do more than enough to draw interest from a league that doesn't have a team there and is only really ever on a channel buried in cable that most people pass over.

If they got teams, there would be an upswing in the number of people interested in the NHL just from the fact that they'd actually be on local TV on a regular basis and have media coverage, even if still scant compared to other teams in their market. If Houston's percentages increased to a mere 5%, the lowest of any NHL market given on that list, then they'd have about 307,000 fans and be above six other NHL teams, and I'd be willing to bet that they'd be even bigger than that.

On the other hand, that chart, if accurate, does just about say all you can say about Saskatoon's chances. Their fanbase is all but maxed out when talking about a proportional basis. Everywhere else obviously has room to grow, or already has an impressive number of fans, while they have almost no room to grow.

 

[ahplk]

Is that not wayyyy to late?

Not from looking at NHL history. As I posted a couple pages back, there's already precedent...

"As the relocation of the original Winnipeg Jets franchise to Phoenix was not official until nine days after the draft, selections of the future Phoenix Coyotes team were made under the Jets' name." -1996 NHL Entry Draft

 

[JimAnchower]

Very good points madhi. Your quite right. Renaissance would lose leverage, it takes the threat of immediate relocation off the table and thirdly, Weiers & some of the Councillors appear unwilling at this stage to further entrust the NHL with Arena Management at any price despite the guaranteed 41 home dates and importance on having the team remain. They could very well be thinking they let the NHL swing for it, as there can be no love lost due to the leagues appalling track record in maximizing revenues over the past 4yrs along with its obstinacy in failing to facilitate a local sale that doesnt include massive subsidies from the taxpayer, pushing Glendale to the brink of having to declare municipal bankruptcy.

I look at this another way; would the COG want to go thru this all again next year? They would have pay Beacon again to do the RFP, they would have to spend time discussing all the particulars again, basically they would be in the same position again next year that they are in now. If they can get the arena squared away for the next few years with a real arena management group, they may just take that offer over the NHL's one year offer, even if the AMF amounts are the same. Of course, this could change if the NHL says they would be willing to manage the arena for a nominal fee (or even for free).

 

[madhi19]

Don't get me wrong, I did enjoy the piece, but that was actually one bit of it that I thought was particularly nonsensical. Seems extremely useless to compare the number of hockey fans in American markets without NHL teams but teams in other sports versus the number of hockey fans in Canadian markets without NHL teams and no teams in other major sports, or only one if you include the CFL.

Does anyone think that Seattle would only have 240,000 fans if the NHL set up shop there? Or Houston only having 140,000? Those are both big sports markets with their fair share of professional and collegiate sports alternatives that do more than enough to draw interest from a league that doesn't have a team there and is only really ever on a channel buried in cable that most people pass over.

If they got teams, there would be an upswing in the number of people interested in the NHL just from the fact that they'd actually be on local TV on a regular basis and have media coverage, even if still scant compared to other teams in their market. If Houston's percentages increased to a mere 5%, the lowest of any NHL market given on that list, then they'd have about 307,000 fans and be above six other NHL teams, and I'd be willing to bet that they'd be even bigger than that.

On the other hand, that chart, if accurate, does just about say all you can say about Saskatoon's chances. Their fanbase is l but maxed out when talking about a proportional basis. Everywhere else obviously has room to grow, they have almost no room to grow.

I think Nate make a big mistake by making the assumption that Hockey fans are only male. Especially in Canada that "% of avid fans" is way off the rail because of that assumption. For that matter he should have included Laval Qc with 401,553 pop and right next to Montreal if they had an NHL level arena they could make a nice juicy target for a third Quebec team.

 

[Donwood]

as far a drop dead deadline, I think it's right after the Conf. finals and before the Final June 13/14. There are UFA's and RFA's to consider and months end would leave the franchise in a very unfavorable position.

The NHL is pushing for something on paper this week (Via Craig Morgan) If there are good arena management bids, Glendale has the upper hand and can tell RSE either take the 6 million and not a penny more, OR what I really hope is tell them we're hiring a outside manager, IF you want to stay NHL, you can work out a rental agreement with the new manager.

if Glendale plays hardball and makes it public, the NHL may have to announce relocation before the end of the Conf. finals.

 

[Killion]

Of course, this could change if the NHL says they would be willing to manage the arena for a nominal fee (or even for free).

Ya, just no idea Jim. We can speculate until the cows come home, but at least the herds in sight. Appearing finally from the gloaming. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

[Killion]

I think Nate make a big mistake by making the assumption that Hockey fans are only male.

Out to lunch. Inf easily obtained. NorthStar Research did a study showing in Canada that men aged 40-55 represents the largest demographic; CBC with app 37% female viewership and for the Stanley Cup Finals 55% women & 63% male. In fact, the NHL & broadcasters have been negligent, reticent in actually targeting its significant female audience in its advertising & marketing efforts, a largely untapped market. Statistics in the US likely similar throughout the strongholds in the NorthEastern & Midwestern sectors, San Jose, Colorado etc.

 

[MAROONSRoad]

For whatever it's worth: I don't think the NHL has a valid relo offer for the 13-14 Season.

That seems highly unlikely. The NHL under Gary Bettman always has a Plan B and it would be imprudent for them not to have a relocation option - realistically only QC at this stage imo. The only other possibilities I can see are that PKP is not interested in purchasing the team at the NHL's asking price at this time OR that the NHL is considering folding or suspending the franchise as preferable to relocating to QC at the offered price - both unlikely in my view. I guess it's possible that the NHL only considered relocation of the team to Seattle and that fell through leaving them with no Plan B, but I find that a remote scenario.

 

[madhi19]

The NHL under Gary Bettman always has a Plan B

I think that explain his reticence in relocating the yotes. If the Yotes are relocated the NHL does not have another Quebec City to bail them out if the crap hit the fan somewhere else. It got nothing to do with conspiracy or long term planning but with juggling a bunch of live grenades.

 

[xzchief]

I think that explain his reticence in relocating the yotes. If the Yotes are relocated the NHL does not have another Quebec City to bail them out if the crap hit the fan somewhere else. It got nothing to do with conspiracy or long term planning but with juggling a bunch of live grenades.

Yeah, if the Coyotes move to Quebec City, there's one less option for future relocations and/or relocation threats. Winnipeg's off the table too. If the Panthers, for example, need to move in 2015, where could they go?

 

[Killion]

I think that explain his reticence in relocating the yotes.

.... si madhi? Vous aimez ce mot reticent huh? No charge.

 

[Fenway]

Yeah, if the Coyotes move to Quebec City, there's one less option for future relocations and/or relocation threats. Winnipeg's off the table too. If the Panthers, for example, need to move in 2015, where could they go?

Markham - and they could play in the ACC for a year or two.

Rogers/Bell would love another Toronto team as they would get the media rights.

Portland could be an option as well.

 

[cbcwpg]

I think that explain his reticence in relocating the yotes. If the Yotes are relocated the NHL does not have another Quebec City to bail them out if the crap hit the fan somewhere else. It got nothing to do with conspiracy or long term planning but with juggling a bunch of live grenades.

IMO, I think going back 15 years and starting there, Bettman has always tried to make sure he has at least one city or one potential owner on speed dial, just in case he needs them. Some of these could be short term interests or long term interests, but regardless, he tries to make sure he has a number he can call in an emergency.

 

[enarwpg]

I'm starting to get the feel that the NHL is willing to commit to Phoenix to the point where it would receive no money whatsoever from the CoG, and to the point of paying rent to the new arena manager. Add this to the weakening talent base, we could start seeing losses not thought feasible. How does 50M per year in losses sound? But hey... Quebec's not ready!

Maybe the NHL would be willing to go back to US Airways Center just to stay in Phoenix. I think there would be far less losses than in Glendale while keeping market presence. This only works if Glendale hires an arena manager before the NHL makes a decision. They're walking the razor's edge. Would US Airways Center be willing to accept the Coyotes as a tenant?

I can't believe the NHL entered the pot with 2-7 off-suit against the CoG's pocket pair. Now here comes the flop...

$50 million sounds high but hey, what the hell do I know, ...however......

What I don't understand is the NHL keeping the team in Glendale, adding annual losses to the price of the team. Hell, it they keep that up and there's still no owner in a couple of years, the price of the team could reach, oh let's say, $225 million ($25 million losses per year) or using your $50 million per year reaching a whopping $270 million. So if Quebec is ready right now and this recent sham is going nowhere and if the NHL decides to hang in there for one or two more years why should PKP wait and cover off the NHL's stupidity?

There has to be something more than just Bettman's love of the desert ! But yes, it could be only the undesirable and damaging optics of moving 2 southern teams to the land of ice and snow in the span of 2 years....

 

[yotesreign]

Yeah, if the Coyotes move to Quebec City, there's one less option for future relocations and/or relocation threats. Winnipeg's off the table too. If the Panthers, for example, need to move in 2015, where could they go?

Glendale?

CoG without the NHL and with a 'pro' a manager booking 10 shows a year like Foreigner, She & Him, REO Speedwagon, Monster truck pulls and bullroping for $6 million a year - they might be willing to cough up a few more for 43 NHL Arizona Panthers gigs by 2015...

j/k

 

[cbcwpg]

Hell, it they keep that up and there's still no owner in a couple of years, the price of the team could reach, oh let's say, $225 million ($25 million losses per year) or using your $50 million per year reaching a whopping $270 million.

The increased price of the team for sale year after year is only an issue if the NHL keeps trying to sell the team. Maybe they will decide to just run the arena for $6M/yr and eat the losses ..... forever.

 

[LeafShark]

I think that explain his reticence in relocating the yotes. If the Yotes are relocated the NHL does not have another Quebec City to bail them out if the crap hit the fan somewhere else. It got nothing to do with conspiracy or long term planning but with juggling a bunch of live grenades.

Seattle becomes(stays as) plan B. Hamilton (Yikes!) becomes plan C. Remember, after Winnipeg, Quebec didn't start building its arena yet (although there were talks). After Winnipeg took the Thrashers, it didn't look like there would be anyone left to take the Coyotes, so the NHL kept stalling. When you run out of time, you run out of time. Every other franchise looks reasonably healthy for the near future.

I think/believe that the NHL would rather move to an old Copps Coliseum than contract a franchise. The NHL would award this franchise on a temporary basis with no owner, and would try to provoke a Southern Ontario city to build a new arena. Kitchener-Waterloo sounds perfect because I think it's just outside both Toronto's and Buffalo's territorial rights, and it has a bigger media market than you would think. If the owners had the choice between contraction, and infringing on Toronto's and Buffalo's territorial rights, I think it would do the latter. If a new owner does take the franchise, by all means they would have to pay up.

I guess Hartford would be plan D. No real reason to go back to this shrinking market that doesn't have a modern arena, and would incur losses, but it's a good PR story. This is mostly a temporary solution as well.

Las Vegas is a complete wildcard option.

After this... there really are no options other than to contract. Not the best options, but teams are reasonably healthy. The Islanders are moving to Brooklyn, which will net big bucks, Columbus is rebounding, and Florida is locked in. Edit: I think the league would rather contract than move to Saskatoon. Believe it or not Saskatoon might be the best option, but the league would never do it.

Keep in mind, the NHL REALLY doesn't want to go to Quebec City. As good an option it is, it's no Winnipeg. They have to operate out of an old arena, in a small city that mostly doesn't speak English. It's terrible.