Phoenix LXII: Abandon Hope all Ye Who Enter Here

[MaskedSonja]

If 1-Jamison will not buy the team until there's a new CBA
2-The CoG will not sign a lease with Jamison until he buys the team
3- The NHL will not sell the team until a lease is signed

It can only end either if a new CBA is reached while Glendale is still willing to give a major subsidy
or if the CoG becomes hostile to the subsidy and lets Jamison walk away.
Am I missing something?

While I am not positive about number one (but speculation wise yes), the rest pretty much sums it up, plus the whole tax question on Nov ballot.

MY thinking is-how long does GJ wait? If this lockout goes the year, will his investor group really have the patience to wait that long?

 

[goyotes]

While I am not positive about number one (but speculation wise yes), the rest pretty much sums it up, plus the whole tax question on Nov ballot.

MY thinking is-how long does GJ wait? If this lockout goes the year, will his investor group really have the patience to wait that long?

If this doesn't get done before the next council takes office, this goose is cooked.

 

[MaskedSonja]

I'm not sure Jamison will not by he team without a new CBA. Jamison was prepared to sign the lease and at least allegedly prepared to close on the sale several weeks ago. The CoG would not sign the lease Jamison negotiated back in June. I think now the hold up is less about the CBA than it is about an acceptable lease to Jamison and more importantly, his investors (assuming he still has them). Just my opinion.

Another variable to consider-depending on what (and when) the CBA stuff gets done-does CoG (under a new voted in group) decide to change the deal AGAIN to optimize how much they get out of it? I think if that happens GJ and investors walk away if they try and pull that type of stunt.

I think the CBA really is the big fish here-and I'm speculating that GJ is REALLY hoping for that 50 or below number for the NHL-because if the CBA agreement goes the players way with them getting mid to high 50 percentile, I think GJ says "no deal".

 

[goyotes]

Another variable to consider-depending on what (and when) the CBA stuff gets done-does CoG (under a new voted in group) decide to change the deal AGAIN to optimize how much they get out of it? I think if that happens GJ and investors walk away if they try and pull that type of stunt.

I think the CBA really is the big fish here-and I'm speculating that GJ is REALLY hoping for that 50 or below number for the NHL-because if the CBA agreement goes the players way with them getting mid to high 50 percentile, I think GJ says "no deal".

You may be right, but if the CBA goes that direction a lot of teams are going to have trouble long-term and Jamison may not be the only guy willing to walk away from owning a team. I think it is a foregone conclusion that revenue will be split at 50/50 or very close to that margin. The issue will be how to treat existing contracts, and the Coyotes are well positioned in that regard. That is why I think the CBA is less of a consideration here, but total speculation on my part.

 

[MaskedSonja]

You may be right, but if the CBA goes that direction a lot of teams are going to have trouble long-term and Jamison may not be the only guy willing to walk away from owning a team. I think it is a foregone conclusion that revenue will be split at 50/50 or very close to that margin. The issue will be how to treat existing contracts, and the Coyotes are well positioned in that regard. That is why I think the CBA is less of a consideration here, but total speculation on my part.

Oh I agree it wouldn't just be him walking away, a few others as well. I do myself think it will be 50/50 or close to it (which is why all this posturing IMO is a bit much, they'll get to it anyway). It will be interesting to see how the current contracts work out.

All we can all do is speculate at this point-unless someone has some hard fast info somewhere that they aren't sharing

 

[Blue Warriors]

While I am not positive about number one (but speculation wise yes), the rest pretty much sums it up, plus the whole tax question on Nov ballot.

MY thinking is-how long does GJ wait? If this lockout goes the year, will his investor group really have the patience to wait that long?

I know #1 is pure speculation, but is it just a coincidence that it was leaked Jamison had the purchase funds just before Glendale announced it could not sign the initial lease because of the tax referendum?
It seems to me Jamison and/or the NHL did everything to delay this thing, let the CBA expire, wait for the elections ...

 

[Killion]

If 1-Jamison will not buy the team until there's a new CBA
2-The CoG will not sign a lease with Jamison until he buys the team
3- The NHL will not sell the team until a lease is signed

It can only end either if a new CBA is reached while Glendale is still willing to give a major subsidy
or if the CoG becomes hostile to the subsidy and lets Jamison walk away.
Am I missing something?

... well, there are really any number of possible permutations, possibilities & outcomes at this stage in the game. Frankly, I dont know how you separate the fact theres a Lockout in progress from the actual sale process, though some posters here & elsewhere do in fact suggest that it doesnt influence nor impede a closing. I disagree. The very existence of franchises like Phoenix are the crucibles upon which the entire system is built. Coming out the other end of a Lockout should the PA accept the rollbacks tabled by the NHL, the financial landscape would be altered considerably for the Coyotes, the other franchises and rather dramatically. So until negotiations conclude, why bother closing on a sale at all?

Secondly, with Skeete telling Jamison the deal agreed to & approved in June is simply too rich for the city, which of course it is, proposing over the last 4-6wks alternates in lowering Management Fee's, all in concept & flux, nothing actually put to paper & then vetted by either sides Attorney's logistics in terms of time-frame now play against a closing altogether with the pending Election in November. Almost every Candidate with the exceptions of the Gang of 4, and there one or two likely to either go down to defeat or be forced to reverse their previous support of the cities largesse speaking out against moving forward with the agreement altogether.

They'll be seated in the New Year, will then require some months to seriously study & debate the issues. Further complicating matters, you have the GlendaleNow anti-tax increase question on Novembers Ballot. The city goes down to defeat on that one, they'll have a lot bigger problems to deal with than paying a Carpetbagger app 5X's the going rate in Arena Management Fee's. If all the aforementioned wasnt enough, the city has yet to release anything in the way of hard numbers pursuant to Jamisons performance as Manager, nor has Jamison revealed who his investors might be, and if as speculated that the Tohono's Indian Band is involved, an elaborate & expensive plan to use the franchise as a bargaining chip in forcing through their plans for the Resort/Casino, well, youve got more Crows in the air coming at you from just about possible angle then Rod Taylor & Tipi Hedren ever did in The Birds. Like Albert Hitchcock meets David Lynch on a Lost Highway. Im half expecting Robert Blake to show up in Pancake Make-up at the next COG Workshop. This is just one Mother of a Cluster**** to put it mildly.

 

[Blue Warriors]

...

They'll be seated in the New Year, will then require some months to seriously study & debate the issues. Further complicating matters, you have the GlendaleNow anti-tax increase question on Novembers Ballot. The city goes down to defeat on that one, they'll have a lot bigger problems to deal with than paying a Carpetbagger app 5X's the going rate in Arena Management Fee's. If all the aforementioned wasnt enough, the city has yet to release anything in the way of hard numbers pursuant to Jamisons performance as Manager, nor has Jamison revealed who his investors might be, and if as speculated that the Tohono's Indian Band is involved, an elaborate & expensive plan to use the franchise as a bargaining chip in forcing through their plans for the Resort/Casino, well, youve got more Crows in the air coming at you then Rod Taylor & Tipi Hedren in The Birds.

Especially if they are "Counting" Crows and look into the real numbers.

 

[Killion]

Especially if they are "Counting" Crows and look into the real numbers.

.... yepp. Or my favourite in the NHL Constitution itself, "Territorial Rights defined as within a 50 mile radius, as the Crow Fly's". I mean, who did they employ to write this stuff back in 1917? Famous Cherokee-Cowboy & Comedian Will Rogers?
Chief Dan George?

 

[Chaosmonkey]

Especially if they are "Counting" Crows and look into the real numbers.

even without counting, it could be hot to handle.

 

[madhi19]

.... yepp. Or my favourite in the NHL Constitution itself, "Territorial Rights defined as within a 50 mile radius, as the Crow Fly's". I mean, who did they employ to write this stuff back in 1917? Famous Cherokee-Cowboy & Comedian Will Rogers?
Chief Dan George?

To be fair they did start this league by a meeting at the Windsor Hotel history does not record if they were inebriated at the time but I like to believe that they were all very, very drunk! Somebody should make a heritage minute parody about that meeting.

 

[Gump Hasek]

Robocall guy? That can't be what Legend was talking about. No one would actually cite that as a legitimate source, right? It's the same imbecile who accused Goldwater of "nefarious" activities because he didn't understand how 501/NPO entities are regulated. For the record, I didn't have a closed mind about that site. I reviewed it objectively. It was readily apparent that the author was some fringe lunatic, completely ignorant on the subject matter he attempted to write about. There is nothing credible on the site. It's one deranged individual spouting baseless, asinine conspiracy theories. Go figure, all of the subjects of his crackpot theories are critical of the Coyotes deal. I'm sure that's just a coincidence.

I was trying to refer to the Glendale First "pac", Fallar and his conspiracy theories.

 

[Tommy Hawk]

The Moose did left several years before the Wild came, but I will add my personal experience - the Long Island Ducks.

They left in 96 when they realized the NHL was coming back (failed jets move to MN).

As for all this Joyce Clark stuff, really? After all this time it surprises this board the actions of people who keep voting to pay 300+ million to all these prospective owners to get a return of 100 million in taxes? Giving money to millionaires on the backs of the overburdened middle class.

See Shelly Long and Tom Hanks.

 

[CGG]

Let me pose this question.....

Does pointing out a group of Latinos (including a few with nefarious backgrounds) working to get a major foothold within Glendale's city government constitute being anti-Latino??

Yes, yes it does. Quite obviously that constitutes being anti-Latino. Why does she pull out the word "Latino" at all and imply all sorts of dubious things going on behind-the-scenes? This has nothing at all to do with the candidates themselves or their positions, ideas or opinions, it's a conspiracy theory spun entirely on the basis of someone's heritage. Latinos in power will ignore the population at large and only do what's best for other Latinos because they're Latino? Really? How else are we supposed to interpret her comments?

The fact that you seem to be completely dismissing this disgusting behaviour from a (seemingly) reputable elected government official is quite painful. Having someone like yourself trying to legitimize her racist theories here is a fantastic example of why BS like this works in politics. People can accept this as some kind of legitimate theory and reason alone to vote against the visible minority for some irrational fear, all the while trying to claim it has nothing to do with race.

Casual Fan has so thoroughly pointed this out in an earlier reply so I'll leave it at that.

CGG:

THINK again:

Hamilton-already occupied by Bulldogs-AHL; SEE Hamilton thread;

QC-proposed arena and other league requires Quebec franchise since Montreal is dwarfed and rejected thrice by juniorc despite Courteau's insistence a team has to be in MTL;

Houston-AHL and owned NHL Operator-(WILD);

KC: Mayor against sport, AEG SALE?

Seattle- waiting on SODO Arena-see Seattle thread;

Atlanta- not enough hardcore base after Thrashers struggle;

Milwaukee-AHL franchise in 35th season;

Portland, OR-Discussed, but Paul Allen stands in way;

Cleveland-why would Gilbert allow another tenant in his building after San Jose?

Norfolk (it's never Hampton Roads)/Richmond, VA, AHL Cross-owned w/ Tides(NOR); Richmond has no arena despite rumors of one in Chesterfield County, and is struggling to replace its baseball facility to remain relevant.

Ho hum. It's a shame that no other city will take an NHL team due to the all-powerful lower level hockey leagues that will shut them out. Just like the Moose prevented Winnipeg from getting a team. Just like the Carolina Monarchs of IHL / AHL fame prevented Hartford from relocating to NC. Just like the Ottawa 67's prevented Ottawa from getting an NHL team back in '93.

It seems the only relocation possibilities now are completely obscure outposts like Albuquerque and Biloxi which don't already have some kind of low level minor league team installed and entrenched in the city.

 

[Killion]

To be fair they did start this league by a meeting at the Windsor Hotel history does not record if they were inebriated at the time but I like to believe that they were all very, very drunk! Somebody should make a heritage minute parody about that meeting.

... and all because of Eddie Livingstone in Toronto, who they then proceeded to Blackball from just about every level of hockey for years afterwards. Stripped of his ownership of not just one team, but 2 in the NHA without recompense, then a decade later of his AHA franchise in Chicago under orders of then NHL President Frank Calder. Livingstone sued variously the NHL, AHA, Major Fred Mcglaughlin of the fledgling Black Hawks etc. Wound up in the grave early; exhausted, broke & spent by the end of the 1930's.... Yepp. The Windsor Hall Bar under the rotunda adjacent to the main lobby serving up all kinds of wonderful stimulants, female companionship if requested, whatever turns yer crank Im sure.... ever tell you how much I love Montreal madhi?

 

[NHLfan4life]

even without counting, it could be hot to handle.

That's the Black Crowes not the Counting Crows but great pun either way

 

[Undertakerqc]

Hey guys!! Havent been here for a while... Did Jamieson finally closed the deal. Does he own the Coyotes yet?

 

[cbcwpg]

... and all because of Eddie Livingstone in Toronto, who they then proceeded to Blackball from just about every level of hockey for years afterwards. Stripped of his ownership of not just one team, but 2 in the NHA without recompense, then a decade later of his AHA franchise in Chicago under orders of then NHL President Frank Calder. Livingstone sued variously the NHL, AHA, Major Fred Mcglaughlin of the fledgling Black Hawks etc. Wound up in the grave early; exhausted, broke & spent by the end of the 1930's.... Yepp. The Windsor Hall Bar under the rotunda adjacent to the main lobby serving up all kinds of wonderful stimulants, female companionship if requested, whatever turns yer crank Im sure.... ever tell you how much I love Montreal madhi?

The scary part Killion is you most likely have first hand knowledge of that meeting based on the way you talk. Did you precede over it?

How have you ever managed to hide your time-travel machine from everyone?

 

[sipowicz]

While I am not positive about number one (but speculation wise yes), the rest pretty much sums it up, plus the whole tax question on Nov ballot.

MY thinking is-how long does GJ wait? If this lockout goes the year, will his investor group really have the patience to wait that long?

What investors? Does anyone think that someone would invest in a guaranteed money losing proposition.

 

[Evil Doctor]

Ho hum. It's a shame that no other city will take an NHL team due to the all-powerful lower level hockey leagues that will shut them out. Just like the Moose prevented Winnipeg from getting a team. Just like the Carolina Monarchs of IHL / AHL fame prevented Hartford from relocating to NC. Just like the Ottawa 67's prevented Ottawa from getting an NHL team back in '93.

Wait a minute, surely 'Hutch can't be unaware of the fact that the lease agreement Hamilton has with the Bulldogs requires the AHL team to vacate and nullify the lease in the event of an NHL team arriving? Wouldn't be surprised if it's true of all AHL teams that play in NHL type arenas...

 

[Chaosmonkey]

That's the Black Crowes not the Counting Crows but great pun either way

I forgot to mention black in my post, I had it all worked out in my head before hand too! Also, I realize it should have been hard to handle, not hot.....

Such great opportunities squandered.

 

[cheswick]

Hey guys!! Havent been here for a while... Did Jamieson finally closed the deal. Does he own the Coyotes yet?

He has his investors lined up and is just finalizing a re-worked lease with the city. It'll likely close in a matter of weeks. Probably 2 weeks or so.

 

[Killion]

The scary part Killion is you most likely have first hand knowledge of that meeting based on the way you talk. Did you precede over it?... How have you ever managed to hide your time-travel machine from everyone?

Axually Im a Replicant. Like Rutger Hauer in Bladerunner. Only instead of having a limited lifespan they just throw me back in the freezer for awhile... when I get out of hand... which is frequently. Just ask the Admins round here bout dat..... For I have seen things you wouldnt believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-Beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser Gate....

Elephants waterskiing at Cypress Gardens.

 

[RandR]

... Frankly, I dont know how you separate the fact theres a Lockout in progress from the actual sale process, though some posters here & elsewhere do in fact suggest that it doesnt influence nor impede a closing. I disagree. The very existence of franchises like Phoenix are the crucibles upon which the entire system is built. Coming out the other end of a Lockout should the PA accept the rollbacks tabled by the NHL, the financial landscape would be altered considerably for the Coyotes, the other franchises and rather dramatically. So until negotiations conclude, why bother closing on a sale at all?

I completely agree with this assessment.

From the viewpoint of potential investors, I just can't see why they would commit big bucks to a purchase of this franchise with a commitment to run it out of Phoenix with the threat of a lengthy lockout potentially causing both immediate damage to the franchise value and delaying any revenue stream for many months or even a year or more. Just too risky.

From the viewpoint of the NHL, with Jamison playing along, they've known many months ago (and possibly long before it was announced) that the CBA would be allowed to expire before the start of this season. Seems to me that the charade of saying that funding was lined up served 2 purposes:
a) increase chances that the NHL could get the CoG to continue to contribute millions for "managing" the arena for another year
b) postpone any possible need to move the franchise until after the new CBA, when the possibility of a venue such as Seattle could become an alternative to Quebec City.

There was a risk to the league that they would have to fund operating the Coyotes in Phoenix without significant subsidy from CoG for this season, but I now think Bettman gambled that the worst case scenario in that regard would be if the NHLPA caved in quickly and gave the league most of what it wanted during CBA negotiations and in that case Bettman would still come out smelling like roses to his bosses.

I can only speculate how this might all shake out in the end, but the one thing I am convinced about is that this franchise situation won't be resolved until at least when the new CBA is agreed upon.

 

[aqib]

so for those just joining us (or rejoining us), there is an election in 24 days. The following issues and seats are to be decided

1) the sales tax which is where the funding for the AMF is supposed to come from (along with the funding for other things) - if this gets repealed that could kill the deal

2) the mayors seat - the mayor voted against the last AMF and the 2 candidates are both against the deal

3) lieberman's seat - he was against the deal and both contenders replace him are against the deal.

4) trate's seat - Trate voted in favor of the deal. one contender (sherwood) is in favor one (douglas) is opposed

5) Joyce Clark - she is in favor of the deal her opponent is opposed.

so in order for the team to stay the following must happen

1) The sales tax to pass

2) clark and sherwood to win or the deal to close before 12/31

3) the consummated deal to withstand a Goldwater challenge.

This is all assuming Jameson's investors are real and are ok with the revised AMF.