OT: Philadelphia Eagles (NFL): When You're Up, It's Never As Good As It Seems, And When You're Down, You Never Think You'll Be Up Again

[JojoTheWhale]

It's a great year for that Saints pick to be higher up. Best value is shaping up well to be DL/CB. Well, the best value is trading it to someone who takes a QB. But this is great too.

Most of the obvious DL names are ones everyone will have seen, but I'm going to try to get my hands on some Texas Tech tape for Tyree Wilson. I only saw the TCU game, but it certainly made me want to see more.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Has anyone checked the draft values on keeping the top 10 pick and trading back with the last 20’s pick?

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Has anyone checked the draft values on keeping the top 10 pick and trading back with the last 20’s pick?

Late 20’s?!?

You must not bolieve!

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Has anyone checked the draft values on keeping the top 10 pick and trading back with the last 20’s pick?

As in what you could get for them or the value historically produced in those areas?

 

[Chinatown88]

 

[deadhead]

Eagles have no choice with Hurts, draft a rookie, hope in 2-3 years he's as good, then you have to pay him more than Hurts after year 4, or he's not, and you wasted a high pick. So low probability of improving, high probability of a major setback and loss of value. Odds that anyone you draft, even in the top ten, is better than Hurts is what? 10%, 20% if you're brilliant at drafting developing QBs. Just look at the QBs drafted near the top of the draft the last decade and weep.

There are two reasons to be optimistic about Hurts:

1) Intangibles, that killed Wentz, and kept McNabb from taking the next step or Vick developing, Hurts has the smarts, off the wall work ethic, and cool under pressure, a natural leader. I doubt money will change him, his drive is internal.

2) His body, he's built like a FB, while he doesn't have the speed of a Lamar or Vick, his stockier frame is better designed to handle punishment in and out of the pocket. And QBs take more punishment in the pocket if they're smart about going down/out of bounds when they run (something he still has to work on, you can be overly competitive).

He needs to work on his pocket presence, mechanics and arm strength, but as Brady showed, if you are willing to put the work in, you can improve over a 4-5 year period, he's still only 24 years old. He's not going to have Mahomes' arm, but he's shown a lot of improvement, and 3 interceptions in 11 games illustrates the improvement in his judgement.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

As in what you could get for them or the value historically produced in those areas?

The valuation of the haul of picks you'd receive for trading them. Obviously that's more difficult without actually knowing the draft order.

I was essentially just thinking, do the picks outweigh the luxury of potentially being able to pick a top 7 prospect. Especially when you are going to have a late first you could trade instead if you want to recoup picks

 

[BrindamoursNose]

The valuation of the haul of picks you'd receive for trading them. Obviously that's more difficult without actually knowing the draft order.

I was essentially just thinking, do the picks outweigh the luxury of potentially being able to pick a top 7 prospect. Especially when you are going to have a late first you could trade instead if you want to recoup picks

Theoretically, if we traded to late 1st round, we could probably get two 1sts and a 2nd+ for a Top 6 pick that we have right now. Probably more if teams are desperate for QB.

All charts are different, but this isn't a bad value chart to use as a guesstimation:

NFL Draft Trade Value Chart

 

[Chinatown88]

 

[JojoTheWhale]

The valuation of the haul of picks you'd receive for trading them. Obviously that's more difficult without actually knowing the draft order.

I was essentially just thinking, do the picks outweigh the luxury of potentially being able to pick a top 7 prospect. Especially when you are going to have a late first you could trade instead if you want to recoup picks

I think a big part of this is where you put the tier break. Will Anderson isn't falling to even 6 unless something weird happens, but obviously they would snag him. I'm as sure as I can be that Jalen Carter would be in that tier for me too. I need to watch the Clemson guys more before I speak to that.

The other factor is whether the team coming up is going to take a QB. Those picks just go for more, period. For example, the Bears gave up 20 + 5th + future 1 + future 4 to get to 11 for Justin Fields. If that wasn't a QB, the cost is more like a 2 and something small to move up 9 spots.

The chart that @BrindamoursNose linked is the old Jimmy Johnson chart. We're in a weird middle ground where the more analytically-oriented teams think that's outdated. But there are teams that still use something similar, so the info is useful.

There are about a million different charts at this point from good to very good sources. What seems to be the most widely accepted in smart communities is the Fitzgerald-Spielberger version because it's derived from contract data.

NFL Draft Trade Value Chart | Over the Cap

NFL Draft Trade Value Chart | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

Someone even put together a handy calculator for it: Trade Calculator | Over the Cap

 

[Halladay]

Dennis Allen is an atrocious head coach. They probably win 1 more game. The Texans, Rams, and Broncos are the only teams I'm certain that will finish worse. If they could somehow finish with thr 4th pick, that would be ideal. Be in a great leverage spot. Though I guess it depends on what Seattle thinks of Geno.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

I think a big part of this is where you put the tier break. Will Anderson isn't falling to even 6 unless something weird happens, but obviously they would snag him. I'm as sure as I can be that Jalen Carter would be in that tier for me too. I need to watch the Clemson guys more before I speak to that.

The other factor is whether the team coming up is going to take a QB. Those picks just go for more, period. For example, the Bears gave up 20 + 5th + future 1 + future 4 to get to 11 for Justin Fields. If that wasn't a QB, the cost is more like a 2 and something small to move up 9 spots.

The chart that @BrindamoursNose linked is the old Jimmy Johnson chart. We're in a weird middle ground where the more analytically-oriented teams think that's outdated. But there are teams that still use something similar, so the info is useful.

There are about a million different charts at this point from good to very good sources. What seems to be the most widely accepted in smart communities is the Fitzgerald-Spielberger version because it's derived from contract data.

NFL Draft Trade Value Chart | Over the Cap

NFL Draft Trade Value Chart | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

Someone even put together a handy calculator for it: Trade Calculator | Over the Cap

Theoretically, if we traded to late 1st round, we could probably get two 1sts and a 2nd+ for a Top 6 pick that we have right now. Probably more if teams are desperate for QB.

All charts are different, but this isn't a bad value chart to use as a guesstimation:

NFL Draft Trade Value Chart

Your responses and time are appreciated lads.

 

[Chinatown88]

Latest PFF NFL Stock Exchange podcast Trevor and Connor have Brugler on to talk about his first mock and general buzz around this upcoming draft.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

In the span of less than a week, we've had Michael Jordan and Tom Brady evoked in Hurts' name. By all means, love the guy as much as you want and enjoy the hell out of this year. Just don't get committed before it's finished.

 

[deadhead]

In the span of less than a week, we've had Michael Jordan and Tom Brady evoked in Hurts' name. By all means, love the guy as much as you want and enjoy the hell out of this year. Just don't get committed before it's finished.

There's a difference in saying a player is like player X, and saying that player X shows how certain traits develop.

Brady is an extreme outlier, but he's also a prototypical example of the value of work ethic on the progress of top athletes - those who say all pro athletes work hard haven't closely followed sports, there's a huge difference between players, both in terms of internal drive and exterior environment.

McNabb worked hard initially to improve under Reid, but he leveled off after a few seasons, his peak two years actually started in 2003, when he returned after the bye in the third week and his thumb healed, put up basically the same stats he would the next season with TO. But once he injured his knee in 2005, it became obvious how much of his success was predicated on athleticism because he didn't put the work in to refine his mechanics or get faster at reading defenses. We saw the same thing in Wentz after he got injured in 2017. They still had the arm, but couldn't make use of it. With Vick, he just got to Reid too late in his career, and of course, he had maturity issues until he went to jail.

Now the $64K question with Hurts ($640K with inflation) is how much he can continue to improve his base QB skills. The RPO based offense isn't sustainable in the long-run, the better he becomes as a pocket passer, the more he can pick his spots to use his legs. But he does have the kind of work ethic that suggests he'll continue to work on perfecting his game after he gets big money.

I think one thing a GM should look at before paying any player in any sport big money is what drives them - is it money, ego, external gratification or internal drive to compete. It's why I wouldn't hesitate to give Maxey a max contract - players driven to succeed tend not to get "fat and lazy" once they get paid.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

There's a difference in saying a player is like player X, and saying that player X shows how certain traits develop.

Brady is an extreme outlier, but he's also a prototypical example of the value of work ethic on the progress of top athletes - those who say all pro athletes work hard haven't closely followed sports, there's a huge difference between players, both in terms of internal drive and exterior environment.

McNabb worked hard initially to improve under Reid, but he leveled off after a few seasons, his peak two years actually started in 2003, when he returned after the bye in the third week and his thumb healed, put up basically the same stats he would the next season with TO. But once he injured his knee in 2005, it became obvious how much of his success was predicated on athleticism because he didn't put the work in to refine his mechanics or get faster at reading defenses. We saw the same thing in Wentz after he got injured in 2017. They still had the arm, but couldn't make use of it. With Vick, he just got to Reid too late in his career, and of course, he had maturity issues until he went to jail.

Now the $64K question with Hurts ($640K with inflation) is how much he can continue to improve his base QB skills. The RPO based offense isn't sustainable in the long-run, the better he becomes as a pocket passer, the more he can pick his spots to use his legs. But he does have the kind of work ethic that suggests he'll continue to work on perfecting his game after he gets big money.

I think one thing a GM should look at before paying any player in any sport big money is what drives them - is it money, ego, external gratification or internal drive to compete. It's why I wouldn't hesitate to give Maxey a max contract - players driven to succeed tend not to get "fat and lazy" once they get paid.

Except it doesn't parallel to Brady in any way. The big jump in Brady's output was when the Patriots opened up the offense schematically. His one unusual development was in arm strength.

Early career Brady gets retconned into this game manager who could barely complete a pass, but he came into the league as one of its most accurate passers. Hell, he lead the NFL in Passsing TDs in his second season as a starter. By the way, he had 28 that year. In 2021, that would have been good for 10th and would have fallen to 12th if Russ and Kyler Murray had played a full season. Brady had 43, or a ~54% increase over his league leading 2002. QB parallels from 20 years ago do not work anymore by any sane standard. You wouldn't tell me Hart should be developed like Ed Belfour because the requirements of the position have changed so much. It's really not that different here.

As far as 2017 Carson Wentz, anyone who cared to look into exactly how he was making those plays knew it wasn't repeatable in the same way. That's not to say he couldn't get better in other areas, but that season was basically all about him doing completely unsustainable things on 3rd Down. That regression was inevitable.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

A quick survey for everyone. Ignoring injury issues and actual eligibility for an extension, which of these QBs would you give starter's money long-term:

A) Jalen Hurts
B) Justin Herbert
C) Tua Tagovailoa
D) Geno Smith
E) Trevor Lawrence
F) Lamar Jackson

No answers will be mocked or responded to at all. I just want to see something.

 

[deadhead]

Except it doesn't parallel to Brady in any way. The big jump in Brady's output was when the Patriots opened up the offense schematically. His one unusual jump was in arm strength.

Early career Brady gets retconned into this game manager who could barely complete a pass, but he came into the league as one of its most accurate passers. Hell, he lead the NFL in Passsing TDs in his second season as a starter. By the way, he had 28 that year. In 2021, that would have been good for 10th and would have fallen to 12th if Russ and Kyler Murray had played a full season. Brady had 43, or a ~54% increase over his league leading 2002. QB parallels from 20 years ago do not work anymore by any sane standard.

As far as 2017 Carson Wentz, anyone who cared to look into exactly how he was making those plays knew it wasn't repeatable in the same way. That's not to say he couldn't get better in other areas, but that season was basically all about him doing completely unsustainable things on 3rd Down. That regression was inevitable.

Brady blossomed early b/c Belichick used him as a game manager with two very quick smurf WRs, and a great defense.
Which played into his strengths (or disguised an average arm until he built it up) and gave him time to learn how to play QB.
Y/A 6.9, 6.3, 6.9, then jumps to 7.8 in 2004.
2001: primary receivers, RBs 93, Troy Brown 101, Patten 51, other WR 40, TE 19 - 528 PA, 41 QB rush, 432 rushes
2002: primary receivers, RBs 93, Brown 97, Patten 63, Branch 43, other WR 21, TE 58 - 636 PA, 45 QB rush, 350 rushes
2003: primary receivers, RBs 88, Branch 57, Brown 40, Givens 34, other WR 34, TE 66 - 569 PA, 43 QB rush, 430 rushes
2004: primary receivers, RBs 85, Givens 56, Patten 44, Branch 35, other WR 27, TE 56 - 511 PA, 47 QB rush, 477 rushes

 

[deadhead]

A quick survey for everyone. Ignoring injury issues and actual eligibility for an extension, which of these QBs would you give starter's money long-term:

A) Jalen Hurts
B) Justin Herbert
C) Tua Tagovailoa
D) Geno Smith
E) Trevor Lawrence
F) Lamar Jackson

No answers will be mocked or responded to at all. I just want to see something.

A) Jalen Hurts - yes
B) Justin Herbert - yes
C) Tua Tagovailoa - not sure, a huge jump is always scary, don't know the underlying details - See Lamar's one great season
D) Geno Smith - no, don't trust one year comebacks, though Tannehill says it can be done, want a second season to believe
E) Trevor Lawrence - probably if he keeps progressing this season, has shown flashes of greatness
F) Lamar Jackson - no, see Murray on Zona. No progress as a passer, and with his frame, the running will deteriorate

 

[Solution]

A quick survey for everyone. Ignoring injury issues and actual eligibility for an extension, which of these QBs would you give starter's money long-term:

A) Jalen Hurts
B) Justin Herbert
C) Tua Tagovailoa
D) Geno Smith
E) Trevor Lawrence
F) Lamar Jackson

No answers will be mocked or responded to at all. I just want to see something.

At this moment, I would go with Hurts and Herbert. They have a bit more of a track record currently. Geno I would need to see it again. Tua is impressive, but I question the injury history. Trevor is a possibility in a few years. And Jackson is just a guy I do not have faith in personally. His track record suggests a good investment, but my gut keeps saying, "Not the franchise."

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Appreciate the responses and any future ones. I'll Like them all and make no other comments. I just wanted to hear how thought processes applied to non-Eagles to understand the actual Hurts discussion better.

Brady blossomed early b/c Belichick used him as a game manager with two very quick smurf WRs, and a great defense.
Which played into his strengths (or disguised an average arm until he built it up) and gave him time to learn how to play QB.
Y/A 6.9, 6.3, 6.9, then jumps to 7.8 in 2004.
2001: primary receivers, RBs 93, Troy Brown 101, Patten 51, other WR 40, TE 19 - 528 PA, 41 QB rush, 432 rushes
2002: primary receivers, RBs 93, Brown 97, Patten 63, Branch 43, other WR 21, TE 58 - 636 PA, 45 QB rush, 350 rushes
2003: primary receivers, RBs 88, Branch 57, Brown 40, Givens 34, other WR 34, TE 66 - 569 PA, 43 QB rush, 430 rushes
2004: primary receivers, RBs 85, Givens 56, Patten 44, Branch 35, other WR 27, TE 56 - 511 PA, 47 QB rush, 477 rushes

2021 Bucs RBs caught 110 passes. Leonard Fournette caught the 3rd most passes on the team and was only 5 behind potential HOFer Mike Evans for #2. Evans also played 16 Games to Fournette's 14.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

A quick survey for everyone. Ignoring injury issues and actual eligibility for an extension, which of these QBs would you give starter's money long-term:

A) Jalen Hurts
B) Justin Herbert
C) Tua Tagovailoa
D) Geno Smith
E) Trevor Lawrence
F) Lamar Jackson

No answers will be mocked or responded to at all. I just want to see something.

Really difficult to do this ignoring injuries, but...

A) Jalen Hurts - Still not sure I want to give the big, big contract...but closer to "Yes" than "No"
B) Justin Herbert - Yes (but I know this is my bias showing)
C) Tua Tagovailoa - Begrudgingly, yes.
D) Geno Smith - Yes (not 40 mill, but like...28)
E) Trevor Lawrence - Yes
F) Lamar Jackson - Yes, but not a massive market resetting deal. 35 mill max.

 

[Chinatown88]

In the span of less than a week, we've had Michael Jordan and Tom Brady evoked in Hurts' name. By all means, love the guy as much as you want and enjoy the hell out of this year. Just don't get committed before it's finished.

He's not worth $45 million.

A quick survey for everyone. Ignoring injury issues and actual eligibility for an extension, which of these QBs would you give starter's money long-term:

A) Jalen Hurts- no
B) Justin Herbert- yes
C) Tua Tagovailoa- yes
D) Geno Smith- no
E) Trevor Lawrence- yes
F) Lamar Jackson- yes

No answers will be mocked or responded to at all. I just want to see something.

EZ

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Latest PFF NFL Stock Exchange podcast Trevor and Connor have Brugler on to talk about his first mock and general buzz around this upcoming draft.

I'm not surprised on his overall take on the WR class, but Smith-Njigba having 3rd round grades from some teams coming into the year was not what I expected.

He also brought up a point about these top Corners that should be of note for Eagles fans. Christian Gonzalez is really not a scheme fit here. He can do it, but it's not playing to the strengths that got him up that high in a draft.

 

[Chinatown88]

I'm not surprised on his overall take on the WR class, but Smith-Njigba having 3rd round grades from some teams coming into the year was not what I expected.

He also brought up a point about these top Corners that should be of note for Eagles fans. Christian Gonzalez is really not a scheme fit here. He can do it, but it's not playing to the strengths that got him up that high in a draft.

This might be the fantasy community trying to make him the next big thing. I think he's good but I don't think he's the next best thing since sliced bread. I still prefer Boutte even with him falling flat on his face this season for a combination of reasons. Johnston is above JSN for me. Addison too. I do love me some Josh Downs though.