Hahaha. Yeah good point. It is unequivocal that the first ten games of a players post-draft year completely negate the prior 100 games. I forgot about that.
Prospect Info: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Juniors, Int'l, etc. (Autumn edition)
- Thread starter MiamiScreamingEagles
- Start date
- Status
Hahaha. Yeah good point. It is unequivocal that the first ten games of a players post-draft year completely negate the prior 100 games. I forgot about that.
Tripod
I hate this team
I'll say it again...it took Morin 82 games before his upswing in offense started. Is it so off that Myers would happen at game 107?
Regardless...we we have 5 years to debate him as a good prospect or not.
But I guarantee if we let him walk after training camp, was signed by another team, and then had the start he had, people would rip our mgt and give praise to the GM who had the smarts to see his skill and sign him.
Regardless...we we have 5 years to debate him as a good prospect or not.
But I guarantee if we let him walk after training camp, was signed by another team, and then had the start he had, people would rip our mgt and give praise to the GM who had the smarts to see his skill and sign him.
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 54,689
- 89,929
I said this on the prospect board, but hypothetically if he were eligible for the '16 draft and he continued around this pace offensively as a 6'5, RHD that can skate, it would be hard to imagine him lasting much longer than the first 90 selections.
Well there is a pretty big difference when we are talking about a guy chosen in the top 15 and a guy that is undrafted. If Myers was drafted in the first round, I'd be a lot less skeptical. I know, I know, scouts make mistakes so anything can happen! Which is fine. I have repeatedly said that I am not saying the kid is not going to continue or that he sucks or that I hate him or that his mom is fat or anything like that. All I said is that 12 games of offensive production does not get me excited when there are 100 games without it. But alas, apparently that is unreasonable, and to be skeptical of that is contrarian. It is much more reasonable to ignore the other 100 games because ANYTHING could have caused him to not score and since ANYTHING could have caused him to not score it means that he will score now since he has done it for 12 games duh.
And that's fine, but that isn't the case. The fact is, he wasn't a big point producer leading up to this point, so why is unacceptable to be skeptical that he all of the sudden is producing at a very high rate? Wouldn't it be more likely that it is a fluke than for the guy to all the sudden be an offensive dynamo, or am I missing something here?
royals119
Registered User
Phantoms recalled Kevin Goumas, Brandon Alderson, and Derek Mathers from Reading today.
Royals signed Collegeville PA native Adam Berkle (F) who was initially cut at the end of training camp. Picked up Riley Armstrong (F) off waivers, and traded Jonathan Parker (F) to Allen TX for Kevin Young (D)
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 54,689
- 89,929
Sure be skeptical idc, but that goes back to my original point, you just want to see a certain number next to his name before you can say he's a good prospect. I get it. That's 95% of HF. The only thing I can say is watch him for yourself. I don't believe this run he's been on is a fluke. He's a talented player.
Tripod
I hate this team
Again, this entire discussion has been from the beginning about his point production (go read the posts where we are discussing his increase in point production). I don't think he's a very good prospect at this point because he went undrafted and has played 12 games since then. He may very well turn out to be a Flyer or a good trade chip...but right now he just isn't. In your eyes, maybe he is, but undrafted Junior Prospects don't shoot up in to my top prospect list until they prove over a long stretch (i.e., at the very least a half a season) that they can do something. Now, you can say you've watched him since he was in diapers and he has a ton of skill, but that doesn't change the fact that he went undrafted and no one else seems to think of him that way. You may be right and I really hope you are, but I'm not going to get excited about this kid just yet. Just like I didn't get excited for Myka Pyrola or Matt Konan or Tomas Hyka or Maxime Lamarche or the other countless players that get signed every year by every team that never make it.
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 54,689
- 89,929
And it is certainly possible, but I'm going to wait until I see it consistently. I mean really, it is has been 12 games of junior hockey after 100 of not putting up points. Since when is that enough to get anyone excited about a player? Am I missing something?
Ok. DFF.
BTW when does your Top prospect list come out?
It's already out. My name is Tim Panaccio.
Appleyard
Registered User
Lindblom & Sandstrom predictably named to roster for Sweden U20 roster today for the 4 nations tournament in Finland at start of November.
http://www.swehockey.se/ImageVaultFiles/id_107239/cf_78/roster_swe_nov_2015.PDF
http://www.swehockey.se/ImageVaultFiles/id_107239/cf_78/roster_swe_nov_2015.PDF
deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
- 50,830
- 22,160
Where you get drafted in the baseball (HS players) and hockey drafts is less informative than football because of the ages.
18 year olds will have a range of physical development, and you're drafting off what you saw of them at age 16 and 17. So you'd expect more mistakes due to late growth spurts, etc. In the case of Myers, in all sports relatively taller players often take longer to develop body control, especially right after their major growth spurt.
While 12 games is a small sample, when you almost match the production of the previous 100 games in that sample, statistical theory would suggest there's a low (but not zero) probability that he has the same skill level that he demonstrated the previous two seasons. On the other hand, I wouldn't project that he'll finish the year with 25 goals either.
If he approaches the numbers Sanheim put up last year:
67 15 50 65 +27
you'd have to say Myers is an absolute steal.
If he puts up Morin numbers from his after draft season:
54 7 24 31 +12
(to match Morin, Myers need only go 2-19 21 his next 42 games)
you'd say he was a prospect, but how good of one would depend more on his defensive prowess and how physical he plays.
Point is Myers has done enough already to suggest he should have been drafted in the middle rounds, how good of a prospect he actually is will require a full season to evaluate, but given his size and skating skills, the fact he's shown some legitimate scoring ability makes him worth watching more closely.
18 year olds will have a range of physical development, and you're drafting off what you saw of them at age 16 and 17. So you'd expect more mistakes due to late growth spurts, etc. In the case of Myers, in all sports relatively taller players often take longer to develop body control, especially right after their major growth spurt.
While 12 games is a small sample, when you almost match the production of the previous 100 games in that sample, statistical theory would suggest there's a low (but not zero) probability that he has the same skill level that he demonstrated the previous two seasons. On the other hand, I wouldn't project that he'll finish the year with 25 goals either.
If he approaches the numbers Sanheim put up last year:
67 15 50 65 +27
you'd have to say Myers is an absolute steal.
If he puts up Morin numbers from his after draft season:
54 7 24 31 +12
(to match Morin, Myers need only go 2-19 21 his next 42 games)
you'd say he was a prospect, but how good of one would depend more on his defensive prowess and how physical he plays.
Point is Myers has done enough already to suggest he should have been drafted in the middle rounds, how good of a prospect he actually is will require a full season to evaluate, but given his size and skating skills, the fact he's shown some legitimate scoring ability makes him worth watching more closely.
Random Forest
Registered User
- May 12, 2010
- 14,636
- 1,331
Yeah, no one is really saying that Myers is or should have been a first round/blue-chip talent. Just that he's clearly a draft-worthy player, so his undrafted status really is meaningless at this point.
DFF, your problem is that you love to argue in extremes. If people are seemingly excited about Myers, you interpret that as people being super high on him and thinking we got some serious steal. That's not the case.
You trivialize the fact that scouts are often wrong, but try considering the fact that a good WJC tournament is often enough to shoot a player up a few rounds in the draft. That's not even 12 games. 12 games is a big deal for marginal prospects. An undrafted player should never be expected to perform at the level that Myers has been at this season thus far. If we're talking about established top prospects, sure, 12 games is meaningless. But we're not talking about those players.
Put in another way, it doesn't take much to jump from ~250 in the rankings to ~130. A strong stretch can do the trick. We think that may be the case here. Comparatively, it takes a lot more to jump from ~130 to ~30 in the draft rankings even if nominally the jump is smaller.
DFF, your problem is that you love to argue in extremes. If people are seemingly excited about Myers, you interpret that as people being super high on him and thinking we got some serious steal. That's not the case.
You trivialize the fact that scouts are often wrong, but try considering the fact that a good WJC tournament is often enough to shoot a player up a few rounds in the draft. That's not even 12 games. 12 games is a big deal for marginal prospects. An undrafted player should never be expected to perform at the level that Myers has been at this season thus far. If we're talking about established top prospects, sure, 12 games is meaningless. But we're not talking about those players.
Put in another way, it doesn't take much to jump from ~250 in the rankings to ~130. A strong stretch can do the trick. We think that may be the case here. Comparatively, it takes a lot more to jump from ~130 to ~30 in the draft rankings even if nominally the jump is smaller.
Gardiner Expressway
Registered User
- Dec 1, 2011
- 875
- 23
Report on Cousins? Numbers look good, why does he rank low on so many Flyers lists? (Besides his character history of course....)
Stizzle
Registered User
- Feb 3, 2012
- 13,209
- 23,193
His line with Connor and Martel has easily been the Phantoms best line so far. Unfortunately, the view on him as a whole is he isn't someone whose scoring will translate to the NHL.
Tripod
I hate this team
You do realize that most of us are just happy we got a player for free that SEEMS like he could be an asset someday for us. If he was doing poor in these 12 games, people would bitch that Hextall wasted a contract. So why not be happy when early indications are possitive?
It's ok to not be negative.
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 54,689
- 89,929
Doesn't have the size/speed you wanna see. Really good playmaker though. Next year is his make or break year.
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 54,689
- 89,929
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 54,689
- 89,929
Did you see how much ice he covered? Unbelievable. Not to mention he was at the end of his shift and nearly scored earlier in the shift.
Stizzle
Registered User
- Feb 3, 2012
- 13,209
- 23,193
He also had a ridiculous back check earlier. The announcer thought the PG player might have a breakaway. Sanheim is shot out of a cannon and denies a chance.
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 54,689
- 89,929
Appleyard
Registered User
- Status
