Prospect Info: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Juniors, Int'l, etc. (Autumn edition)

[Fire Tortorella]

Yeah but can he do it on a cold rainy night in Stoke?

 

[Appleyard]

Yeah but can he do it on a cold rainy night in Stoke?

Haha.

Small anecdote.

I recently visited one of my best friends, who lives full-time in Belgium but is originally from Norfolk in south east England... his mother and all her family are from Stoke... he went to visit them for a relations birthday party/family event/something that meant he had to go to Stoke, and found they had one of the most bizarre insults he had ever heard, and when he quizzed them on it they said it was all the rage in Stoke and the surrounding Staffordshire area at the moment.

Whenever they disagreed with another family member, or thought the individual did or said something stupid, or had 'shit chat' they would shout at them:

'GET IN THE BIN!'

 

[FLYguy3911]

Is this guy serious? Another goal in an otherwise putrid effort by Calgary. Slapper just for fun.

 

[Stizzle]

Is this guy serious? Another goal in an otherwise putrid effort by Calgary. Slapper just for fun.

To the Calgary season ticket holder who said your team had lots of good forwards and you'd be fine without Sanheim: Sanheim has a goal or assist on half your scoring plays this year, and he's a freaking defenseman. The scoring forwards from last year are gone. The young forwards are not stepping up. Some of your veteran defenseman are regressing (Thomas). This team looks awful. Sanheim, Fazleev, and Bean do everything. Everyone else is a passenger.

 

[Tripod]

I love that we have some dynamic prospects on the way. So many kids are playing well right now.

 

[Hiesenberg]

I think if Sanheim played up here in the brief time like he does in Juniors, he would've stuck around. He shows so much confidence up there, with good right too, but at camp, lots of people said he looked timid and passive.

I get it, just stating a theory that if we saw similar at camp/preseason

 

[dats81]

what if...

Morin had a great camp two years ago and didn't stick either.
Ghost was spectacular this year but was sent back, no matter what.
Provorov looked solid all around but...

as Meltzer said it in his preseason assessment, most decisions on prospects were already made well ahead of start of camp.

Unless multiple injuries are decimating the Veteran corps, none of them will make the team and that's no going to change anytime soon.

 

[sa cyred]

what if...

Morin had a great camp two years ago and didn't stick either.
Ghost was spectacular this year but was sent back, no matter what.
Provorov looked solid all around but...

as Meltzer said it in his preseason assessment, most decisions on prospects were already made well ahead of start of camp.

Unless multiple injuries are decimating the Veteran corps, none of them will make the team and that's no going to change anytime soon.

100% agreed. My personal belief is that most roster spots are set before camp starts. Management has a date in mind for when the young players will play in the NHL. Unless they come in looking like a #1 defender (even then I think Hex holds them back), I doubt they consider roster spots for the prospects. The only ones playing for NHL spots are already NHL players who are battling for playing time.

Look at Konecny... he looked fantastic in preseason but (of course) did not make it. Preseason really is for the vets to get their legs under them and the prospects to get a small taste wearing the team's jersey and playing for a NHL team.

 

[Curufinwe]

For my own sanity I have to believe that Manning is just a place holder while Gostisbehere while he gets some AHL games in. I mean, Ghost might make similar defensive mistakes to the ones Manning made last night, but he would also provide an offensive spark.

 

[Hiesenberg]

what if...

Morin had a great camp two years ago and didn't stick either.
Ghost was spectacular this year but was sent back, no matter what.
Provorov looked solid all around but...

as Meltzer said it in his preseason assessment, most decisions on prospects were already made well ahead of start of camp.

Unless multiple injuries are decimating the Veteran corps, none of them will make the team and that's no going to change anytime soon.

That's definitely a good point.

I just think of Sanheim looked like he could take over games, they'd have to figure something out. But hey, maybe they didn't care. Hextall is committed to letting this thing play out, and this year will mostly like be another PO miss.

 

[Hiesenberg]

How many games do they play in the WHL? Sanheim is @ 17 pts in 11 games already. What's that 80 pts? That seems like a lot for a D-man

 

[Tripod]

what if...

Morin had a great camp two years ago and didn't stick either.
Ghost was spectacular this year but was sent back, no matter what.
Provorov looked solid all around but...

as Meltzer said it in his preseason assessment, most decisions on prospects were already made well ahead of start of camp.

Unless multiple injuries are decimating the Veteran corps, none of them will make the team and that's no going to change anytime soon.

I guess it depends on what you deem as "anytime soon". The fact that all of our current 8 D have contracts that end in 1-2 years tells me that the turnover will happen during that timeframe. When you look at each guy individually, it seems like they all could be playing for us next year for sure. But then when you see that we would have 5 guys playing as rookies...then of course that isn't going to happen.

But just think, who out of kids is still 2 years away? It doesn't seem like any of them are. That is why I think Ghost and either Hagg/Morin end the year with our team. Then have the other start 2016 with the team along with Provorov. Then Sanhiem can come up when ready. But man, that still seems ambitious.

At least we HAVE dmen coming instead of watching our current D with no hope from within.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

How many games do they play in the WHL? Sanheim is @ 17 pts in 11 games already. What's that 80 pts? That seems like a lot for a D-man

72 but he's going to miss some games when away with Canada at the WJC's.

 

[Hiesenberg]

72 but he's going to miss some games when away with Canada at the WJC's.

How many?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

How many?

I couldn't tell you exactly how much right now but a guess would be some where in the 6-10 game range.

 

[Curufinwe]

The WJC runs from 12/26/15 thru 1/5/16.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_World_Junior_Ice_Hockey_Championships

The Hitmen play five games between 12/27/15 and 1/3/16.

http://www.hitmenhockey.com/schedule/381/116

So at least five.

 

[FLYguy3911]

To the Calgary season ticket holder who said your team had lots of good forwards and you'd be fine without Sanheim: Sanheim has a goal or assist on half your scoring plays this year, and he's a freaking defenseman. The scoring forwards from last year are gone. The young forwards are not stepping up. Some of your veteran defenseman are regressing (Thomas). This team looks awful. Sanheim, Fazleev, and Bean do everything. Everyone else is a passenger.

Still has a hand in 17 of Calgary's 31 goals (55%) as a defenseman.

Sanheim is averaging 1.55 PPG on a team that averages 2.82 goals/game. Think about that.

Tied for 6th in league scoring.

It is unbelievable how bad Calgary is without him on the ice. They can't create anything.

 

[FLYguy3911]

The WJC runs from 12/26/15 thru 1/5/16.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_World_Junior_Ice_Hockey_Championships

The Hitmen play five games between 12/27/15 and 1/3/16.

http://www.hitmenhockey.com/schedule/381/116

So at least five.

IIRC Team Canada held their camp around the 10th of December last year so he could miss all or most of the games between 12/11 and 12/19 (4 games). Tournament is also in Finland, so if Canada goes deep, they might not throw him in the lineup right away when he gets back.

 

[Curufinwe]

Thanks. I wasn't sure how long before the tournament Team Canada pulled the guys off their teams.

So it could easily be 11 games missed.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Where you get drafted in the baseball (HS players) and hockey drafts is less informative than football because of the ages.

18 year olds will have a range of physical development, and you're drafting off what you saw of them at age 16 and 17. So you'd expect more mistakes due to late growth spurts, etc. In the case of Myers, in all sports relatively taller players often take longer to develop body control, especially right after their major growth spurt.

While 12 games is a small sample, when you almost match the production of the previous 100 games in that sample, statistical theory would suggest there's a low (but not zero) probability that he has the same skill level that he demonstrated the previous two seasons. On the other hand, I wouldn't project that he'll finish the year with 25 goals either.

If he approaches the numbers Sanheim put up last year:
67 15 50 65 +27
you'd have to say Myers is an absolute steal.
If he puts up Morin numbers from his after draft season:
54 7 24 31 +12
(to match Morin, Myers need only go 2-19 21 his next 42 games)
you'd say he was a prospect, but how good of one would depend more on his defensive prowess and how physical he plays.

Point is Myers has done enough already to suggest he should have been drafted in the middle rounds, how good of a prospect he actually is will require a full season to evaluate, but given his size and skating skills, the fact he's shown some legitimate scoring ability makes him worth watching more closely.

I'm just not sure I follow this line of thinking, what about other undrafted prospects that have gotten off to hot starts? They are all now mid-round level prospects? What about mid-round prospects that have faltered in their first 12 games this season? Should they not have been drafted? And again, I've said from the beginning that I am not saying it is impossible or that he can't do it, just that 12 games is not going to get me excited. There are plenty of players that get off to hot starts and plenty of players that get off to cold starts. I'm not going to look at these first 12 games as an indication of anything. If he puts up more points down the road, then ok, but 12 games is not a big enough sample size to do anything.

Yeah, no one is really saying that Myers is or should have been a first round/blue-chip talent. Just that he's clearly a draft-worthy player, so his undrafted status really is meaningless at this point.

And I haven't been arguing that people are. Go back and read the posts. This entire discussion is about me saying 12 games is not going to get me excited about offensive production or pencil him in to any future plans for the Flyers. This was met by people saying that for some reason I am being a contrarian and that points don't tell the whole story and now you saying that no one is saying he is a first round talent as if I am arguing that people are calling him that.

DFF, your problem is that you love to argue in extremes. If people are seemingly excited about Myers, you interpret that as people being super high on him and thinking we got some serious steal. That's not the case.

Actually, I am doing the complete opposite of that. I am saying I am not going to excited over a 12 game stretch. Other folks are saying they are getting excited about this 12 game stretch. Am I really in the minority here and being extreme by saying 12 games isn't enough to get me excited?

You trivialize the fact that scouts are often wrong, but try considering the fact that a good WJC tournament is often enough to shoot a player up a few rounds in the draft. That's not even 12 games. 12 games is a big deal for marginal prospects. An undrafted player should never be expected to perform at the level that Myers has been at this season thus far. If we're talking about established top prospects, sure, 12 games is meaningless. But we're not talking about those players.

A player having a good showing at the WJC is not the same thing as a guy getting off to a hot start in the Q. How many games is too few to get excited? What if he scored 10 points in 8 games? Is that enough to get you riled up? 4 points in 3 games? What if this was the middle of the season? I guess a simple question and the easiest way to put it would be: At what point does his first 100 games of failure to produce points go by the wayside? Is 12 games the marker? 10? Is it just not possible for a kid to put up flukey numbers or are just these numbers not possibly flukey?

Put in another way, it doesn't take much to jump from ~250 in the rankings to ~130. A strong stretch can do the trick. We think that may be the case here. Comparatively, it takes a lot more to jump from ~130 to ~30 in the draft rankings even if nominally the jump is smaller.

That's for players that are draft eligible not players that have already been drafted. There's no way to look at a player 12 games after his draft year and say "Wow, this guy should have been drafted higher/lower." It is just ludicrous. And again, where he should have been selected is not an argument that I was making or anyone was making until these two posts when you and deadhead startred talking about it. But if you want to talk about it, fine.

You look at a guy like Myers with his size and strength. There is a reason he wasn't drafted. Was it because he couldn't put up points? Did he have other flaws? I don't know. But 12 games in to the QMJHL season shouldn't make any other teams kick themselves for not picking him, and it shouldn't make anyone on here think we have anything other than what we have: an undrafted rookie free agent. Now if we get halfway through this year and he is still producing then you start talking about that. If we get a full year like this then you start getting thoughts about a nice late-round/UDFA steal.

 

[He Is Knocking]

For my own sanity I have to believe that Manning is just a place holder while Gostisbehere while he gets some AHL games in. I mean, Ghost might make similar defensive mistakes to the ones Manning made last night, but he would also provide an offensive spark.

I hear you.

Ghost has speed and offensive instincts. Two assets that you can't teach.

I understand it was preseason but this team looked so much more dynamic when he was in the lineup.

 

[flyershockey]

Thanks for setting everyone straight on when or when not to get excited about a player, DFF.

 

[Patrick Division]

Thanks for setting everyone straight on when or when not to get excited about a player, DFF.

Did he ever actually say when? All I know is 12 game is not enough.
I still don't know when I'm allowed to get excited about this kid!?!?

 

[He Is Knocking]

Did he ever actually say when? All I know is 12 game is not enough.
I still don't know when I'm allowed to get excited about this kid!?!?

When he does please sticky so I don't have to mark it on the calendar. :

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

When he does please sticky so I don't have to mark it on the calendar. :

Did he ever actually say when? All I know is 12 game is not enough.
I still don't know when I'm allowed to get excited about this kid!?!?

Thanks for setting everyone straight on when or when not to get excited about a player, DFF.

So you are telling me, right now, that you believe 12 games of good point production that completely runs counter to the previous 100+ games worth of point production is enough to get you excited about a player? Out of curiosity, what is the lowest/shortest point streak that would get you excited? Is there an analogue for slumping players? If Provorov goes pointless for 12 games will you be concerned? Voracek has but one point in 4 games, how many more until you get concerned? Gagner has 2 points in 3 games, should we be starting to get excited about him as a steal of a deal? **** Neuvirth has not allowed a goal in two games, should we begin discussing him as a potential starter instead of Mason? If not now, when?