Prospect Info: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Juniors, Int'l, etc. (Autumn edition)

[deadhead]

Tell me, who are the other undrafted players with prime physical attributes (size combined with decent skating, not a guy like Martel) have put up a 12 game stretch like this the year after they went undrafted - we're not talking an overaged player who finally emerged when he was older than everyone else in juniors. I suspect it's a very small sample.

Now 12 games is far too small of a sample to make definitive conclusions, but I'll take a guy who starts like that, who is playing better after he added 10 lbs to a frame that can probably carry another 10-15 lbs without slowing down over most of the late round picks in this or any draft. You draft for upside in the back of the draft - and Myers has upside just based on his size and skating.

It's basically almost impossible for a guy who was so incompetent offensively to put up those kind of numbers without significantly improving his skill level - you don't "luck" into 5 goals in 12 games. It's because those 12 games are so "counter" to his previous 100 that there's a high probability that he's significantly improved his skill level.

Now if he was a 30 year old NHL defenseman, who had 10 years of offensive futility, then a stretch like that would be like hitting the jackpot on a slot machine - you don't see established players suddenly become juggernauts, so you'd want to see a lot more before believing. But you do see young prospects where the light suddenly goes on. So when you see a young player do this, the odds are that he improved, not that he got incredibly lucky.

 

[Appleyard]

David Kaše is seemingly back up with Pirati in the top tier again after his single game for Kadan in the 2nd tier (in which he scored)...

Not the biggest fan of that really, far better for him to be in the 2nd tier playing than spending most of the night on the 4th line in the top tier.

 

[flyershockey]

So you are telling me, right now, that you believe 12 games of good point production that completely runs counter to the previous 100+ games worth of point production is enough to get you excited about a player? Out of curiosity, what is the lowest/shortest point streak that would get you excited? Is there an analogue for slumping players? If Provorov goes pointless for 12 games will you be concerned? Voracek has but one point in 4 games, how many more until you get concerned? Gagner has 2 points in 3 games, should we be starting to get excited about him as a steal of a deal? **** Neuvirth has not allowed a goal in two games, should we begin discussing him as a potential starter instead of Mason? If not now, when?

I don't really care when people choose to get excited. That's why I don't go on a two day diatribe against posters who happen to be a little excited about a UDFA performing above normal expectations; even if it is only for the first month of a season.

Can you ever just discuss a topic without stretching it out to some crazy ass extreme?

 

[Patrick Division]

So you are telling me, right now, that you believe 12 games of good point production that completely runs counter to the previous 100+ games worth of point production is enough to get you excited about a player? Out of curiosity, what is the lowest/shortest point streak that would get you excited? Is there an analogue for slumping players? If Provorov goes pointless for 12 games will you be concerned? Voracek has but one point in 4 games, how many more until you get concerned? Gagner has 2 points in 3 games, should we be starting to get excited about him as a steal of a deal? **** Neuvirth has not allowed a goal in two games, should we begin discussing him as a potential starter instead of Mason? If not now, when?

Let's say I wasn't convinced...I still wouldn't go on for 4 pages trying to ram my point home. I would say it once or twice and leave it alone.


But I will say this, I really appreciate FLYguy and others updating us on him and I hope they keep doing so.

I also hope I don't have to read you trying to be Buzz Killington about him every time they do.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I don't really care when people choose to get excited. That's why I don't go on a two day diatribe against posters who happen to be a little excited about a UDFA performing above normal expectations; even if it is only for the first month of a season.

Can you ever just discuss a topic without stretching it out to some crazy ass extreme?

Haha, well if you read the posts you will see that this all started with me simply saying I am not going to get excited about this 12 game stretch. Completely innocuous statement that shouldn't even have warranted a response. But instead FLYguy decided to respond by insinuating that I should be excited. I simply said again that 12 games ain't enough to get me excited, and I even made clear that I am not saying it was impossible or that the kid sucked, just that 12 games isn't going to do it for me. Is it my fault that people kept responding? Am I not allowed to respond when some asks me a question or reply to my posts?

Also, what is extreme about this topic or my posts?

Let's say I wasn't convinced...I still wouldn't go on for 4 pages trying to ram my point home. I would say it once or twice and leave it alone.


But I will say this, I really appreciate FLYguy and others updating us on him and I hope they keep doing so.

I also hope I don't have to read you trying to be Buzz Killington about him every time they do.

And yet here we are, with you responding to my posts of making the simple statement that 12 games won't get me excited about a player. There's a little ignore button you can click if you don't want to read my posts, and we can save a lot of time if others do the same, that way when I make a completely harmless and reasonable statement about 12 games not being enough to get excited about a player, you don't have to read my responses to everyone else's responses pretending like that is some crazy statement that no one could ever defend.

I'm sorry that I don't believe 12 games is not a big enough sample size when compared to 100+ games to get excited about a player. I will not change my opinion and agree that I think Phillipe Myers looks like he has some serious offensive chops.

 

[Appleyard]

Konecny predictably on OHL team for CHL Canada Russia Series. The roster was announced today.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Tell me, who are the other undrafted players with prime physical attributes (size combined with decent skating, not a guy like Martel) have put up a 12 game stretch like this the year after they went undrafted - we're not talking an overaged player who finally emerged when he was older than everyone else in juniors. I suspect it's a very small sample.

Now 12 games is far too small of a sample to make definitive conclusions, but I'll take a guy who starts like that, who is playing better after he added 10 lbs to a frame that can probably carry another 10-15 lbs without slowing down over most of the late round picks in this or any draft. You draft for upside in the back of the draft - and Myers has upside just based on his size and skating.

It's basically almost impossible for a guy who was so incompetent offensively to put up those kind of numbers without significantly improving his skill level - you don't "luck" into 5 goals in 12 games. It's because those 12 games are so "counter" to his previous 100 that there's a high probability that he's significantly improved his skill level.

Now if he was a 30 year old NHL defenseman, who had 10 years of offensive futility, then a stretch like that would be like hitting the jackpot on a slot machine - you don't see established players suddenly become juggernauts, so you'd want to see a lot more before believing. But you do see young prospects where the light suddenly goes on. So when you see a young player do this, the odds are that he improved, not that he got incredibly lucky.

That's fine, if you actually read my posts you would know I am not saying that I don't think he improved or that he sucks or that he'll never amount to anything. He's still just an undrafted free agent that is an incredibly long-shot to ever make the Flyers. 12 games isn't going to change that.

 

[He Is Knocking]

So you are telling me, right now, that you believe 12 games of good point production that completely runs counter to the previous 100+ games worth of point production is enough to get you excited about a player? Out of curiosity, what is the lowest/shortest point streak that would get you excited? Is there an analogue for slumping players? If Provorov goes pointless for 12 games will you be concerned? Voracek has but one point in 4 games, how many more until you get concerned? Gagner has 2 points in 3 games, should we be starting to get excited about him as a steal of a deal? **** Neuvirth has not allowed a goal in two games, should we begin discussing him as a potential starter instead of Mason? If not now, when?

Hi DFF, I feel as fans it's okay to enjoy or get excited about good play. Especially a low risk signing such as Myers. Who knows where he will stop developing but during my years of watching different sports he wouldn't be the first late bloomer.

The experts * might say his ceiling is below the higher touted D men in the system but that doesn't mean we can't be excited about his play and possibilities at this point.

If he flames out or development stagnates we can always ratchet down but at this point I'm intrigued.

 

[flyershockey]

Haha, well if you read the posts you will see that this all started with me simply saying I am not going to get excited about this 12 game stretch. Completely innocuous statement that shouldn't even have warranted a response. But instead FLYguy decided to respond by insinuating that I should be excited. I simply said again that 12 games ain't enough to get me excited, and I even made clear that I am not saying it was impossible or that the kid sucked, just that 12 games isn't going to do it for me. Is it my fault that people kept responding? Am I not allowed to respond when some asks me a question or reply to my posts?

Also, what is extreme about this topic or my posts?

No, Flyguy said you were entitled to your opinion, but that he was buying into what he's seen. You, in typical fashion, just couldn't let that go and had to go into lawyerin' mode to try to convince him of how wrong he was. Why do you even care so much that people are excited?

 

[bb12]

Konecny predictably on OHL team for CHL Canada Russia Series. The roster was announced today.

didnt see Provorov on the WHL roster...any reason?

 

[Stizzle]

didnt see Provorov on the WHL roster...any reason?

He's Russian. They didn't release there roster yet.

 

[Appleyard]

So if Myers was picked ~150-160th in the draft (approximately where he was ranked by the consensus) and had only put up 3 points through 12 games would that make him a better prospect then with more reason to be excited over?

I mean, I agree that one swallow never made a spring and all that, and I am not going to rush and proclaim him a future NHLer... but his progress since the draft has been very nice:

Impressed at camp as an invite... enough to get signed.
Has started off the season at a great pace, and has gone from 3rd pairing to a top pairing Dman utilized in all situations.

It is silly to say... but if there was a re-draft next month he gets drafted! And likely before ~150.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

No, Flyguy said you were entitled to your opinion, but that he was buying into what he's seen. You, in typical fashion, just couldn't let that go and had to go into lawyerin' mode to try to convince him of how wrong he was. Why do you even care so much that people are excited?

Really? Did you read the posts? That's literally the exact opposite of what happened. Someone pointed out his ridiculous numbers and I made a simple statement, and FLYguy then tried to convince me to be excited. I said he can be as excited as he wants, but I'm not going to get excited at this point.

This is what catches my eye:

Philippe Myers - 12GP 5G 5A 10PTS +10 14

Still no buzz on this guy, but those are ridiculous numbers for a 18 year old who went undrafted.

First 100 junior games: 2 10 12 -4 66

That sums it up right there. He was not an offensive guy his first 100 junior games. Not going to get too excited based on a 12 game stretch.

These posts are always my favorite. I always get excited when I see someone (especially defenseman) exponentially improve their production from one year to the next. It's a sign of rapid development- Sanheim and Morin come to mind.

And he didn't become a skill guy overnight. Maybe he wasn't in a position to put up points his first two years of junior but going over some old posts and articles Myers has always been described as having good skill. I think we're starting to see it come together.

Maybe, but again, in a 12 game stretch, I'm not going to jump to any conclusions. If he keeps it up, great. Then I'll get excited, but 12 games just doesn't do it for me.

EDIT: Don't take this as me saying he sucks or isn't going to keep it up...it is just that after the first two weeks of his post-draft-year season I am not going to say we have ourselves a steal or anything like that.

Is it just about seeing him put up numbers though? Because if he stays healthy and with the way R-N scores, he should put up 40 or more. I just watch the kid and come away very impressed with the way he moves, handles the puck, and takes away space from opponents. Am I proclaiming him the next Mark Giordano? No, but to say I'm not excited would be a lie.

You can be as excited as you want, I'm just always skeptical with these things. He went undrafted and barely put up 10 points in his first 100 junior games. What are the reasons for this? Playing time? Supporting cast? Physical maturity? I don't know, but something caused him to be unable to produce and for scouts to pass on him 200+ times in the draft. I know...scouts make mistakes every year and it doesn't mean anything. But I'll wait to get excited about this guy until he puts up these points consistently. And again...I'm not saying he won't or he can't, I'm just saying I'm not going to include him in any future plans for the Flyers until he does.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

So if Myers was picked ~150-160th in the draft (approximately where he was ranked by the consensus) and had only put up 3 points through 12 games would that make him a better prospect then with more reason to be excited over?

I mean, I agree that one swallow never made a spring and all that... but his progress since the draft has been very nice:

Impressed at camp as an invite... enough to get signed.
Has started off the season at a great pace, and has gone from 3rd pairing to a top pairing Dman utilized in all situations.

It is silly to say... but if there was a re-draft next month he gets drafted! And likely before ~150.

We aren't talking about how good of a prospect the guy is. This is about 12 games not getting me excited about anything. If he was picked at 150 I would be as excited as the day we drafted him regardless of if he dominated his first 12 games from that point or sucked. He would be the same as every other freshly drafted prospect in that range.

 

[flyershockey]

Really? Did you read the posts? That's literally the exact opposite of what happened. Someone pointed out his ridiculous numbers and I made a simple statement, and FLYguy then tried to convince me to be excited. I said he can be as excited as he wants, but I'm not going to get excited at this point.

I guess I didn't far enough back into the thread. Meh, whatever.

That still doesn't change the fact that it's your routine to create an argument for the sake of one, and then defend it into the ground.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I guess I didn't far enough back into the thread. Meh, whatever.

That still doesn't change the fact that it's your routine to create an argument for the sake of one, and then defend it into the ground.

I'm done after this, but how is it me arguing for the sake of arguing when I make a statement and folks respond to it? Wouldn't that be others arguing for the sake of arguing? Or is that ok and I am just not allowed to respond?

 

[Tripod]

We aren't talking about how good of a prospect the guy is. This is about 12 games not getting me excited about anything. If he was picked at 150 I would be as excited as the day we drafted him regardless of if he dominated his first 12 games from that point or sucked. He would be the same as every other freshly drafted prospect in that range.

Ok then, stop posting about him. You have made it clear that you are not excited about him. Maybe, later on in the year you will be. Probably not.

For me, I am excited. A free RHD that can skate that is off to a great start this year. And I have barely seen him..I admit that. But that is why people who HAVE watched him like Flyguy, and also R-N fans have been impressed with him. They HAVE seen the difference from last year to this year.

Honest question....have you seen any games of him this year and compared them to last year to see the difference? I doubt you have. I know I have not.

And at what point DO you allow yourself to get excited. What game # is that?

 

[Random Forest]

I'm done after this, but how is it me arguing for the sake of arguing when I make a statement and folks respond to it? Wouldn't that be others arguing for the sake of arguing? Or is that ok and I am just not allowed to respond?

Alright, let me ask you this, if Myers had not been signed, where do you think he would be currently ranked for the 2016 draft?

I suggest that he would be in the ~120-140 range. Which means he's roughly as valuable as a 4th or 5th round pick.

People on here are pleased because Hextall essentially added a free pick. If Hextall announced today that he had magically conjured a 4th round pick for the 2016 draft, I think people would be fairly excited. Well, I think that's essentially the case with Myers, and it should not be strange for people to be pleased by his apparent progression.

 

[Appleyard]

It depends on the prospect themselves for me in terms of excitement...

I mean, I was pretty excited in the last two drafts to get Lindblom, Kase and Marody because their talent level and skill-sets means they obviously had the potential to be very good players if everything went well.

I have been less excited for some players who were drafted earlier than them...

heck, had we drafted Sami Niku or John Dahlstrom in the 2015 7th I would have been super excited... as I have have seen these guys and feel their skill-set, top-end talent level and potential is for them to be NHLers, and they are already good enough that they should be capable of being AHL level players even if they simply develop ~averagely.

 

[deadhead]

I'd make one little point, given the way Hextall is accumulating and hoarding draft picks, he's going to face a numbers problem in the near future. It's doubtful they would have signed Myers if they didn't see him as a legitimate prospect, why waste the money, etc., just to dump him in two years knowing he never had a chance?

They give a number of players tryouts, both undrafted juniors, overage juniors and college players, and sign a small minority of these guys. So they must have seen something - now he follows up by performing well his first 12 games - that confirms what they saw in camp.

Mobile 6'4 RH defensemen don't grow on trees.

 

[deadhead]

Alright, let me ask you this, if Myers had not been signed, where do you think he would be currently ranked for the 2016 draft?

I suggest that he would be in the ~120-140 range. Which means he's roughly as valuable as a 4th or 5th round pick.

People on here are pleased because Hextall essentially added a free pick. If Hextall announced today that he had magically conjured a 4th round pick for the 2016 draft, I think people would be fairly excited. Well, I think that's essentially the case with Myers, and it should not be strange for people to be pleased by his apparent progression.

I think people did get excited by the Rinaldo trade, didn't they?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Now if he was a 30 year old NHL defenseman, who had 10 years of offensive futility, then a stretch like that would be like hitting the jackpot on a slot machine - you don't see established players suddenly become juggernauts, so you'd want to see a lot more before believing. But you do see young prospects where the light suddenly goes on. So when you see a young player do this, the odds are that he improved, not that he got incredibly lucky.

This sums it up pretty nicely. Teenagers develop at different rates and defensemen in particular seem to take the longest to develop. I find a player's 18 year old season is usually the most telling. It's usually when you see the biggest jump in production. He's worked his way up the junior ladder. He's earned more minutes. He's learned the league. He's presumably worked and developed some of his weakness. Bigger and stronger in a lot of cases as well.

When I watch Myers I see a kid with a big athletic frame that will probably add weight, very mobile, and now he's making plays with the puck and it's showing in the numbers. That's 3 of the 4 S's people love to talk about. I don't have enough of a sample to say he has the smarts, but I can say he's not dumb. Even if he falls on his face and can't keep up this level of offensive production I still like his chances of carving out a pro career. To what extent? That remains to be seen. As I said before you can't expect Myers to become the next Mark Giordano, but I think you are starting to see the package of an NHL caliber player come together and why the Flyers did not waste time signing him to an ELC (it doesn't happen often with undrafted guys).

 

[Patrick Division]

Originally Posted by deadhead
This is what catches my eye:

Philippe Myers - 12GP 5G 5A 10PTS +10 14

Still no buzz on this guy, but those are ridiculous numbers for a 18 year old who went undrafted.

First 100 junior games: 2 10 12 -4 66

Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers
That sums it up right there. He was not an offensive guy his first 100 junior games. Not going to get too excited based on a 12 game stretch.

Originally Posted by FLYguy3911
These posts are always my favorite. I always get excited when I see someone (especially defenseman) exponentially improve their production from one year to the next. It's a sign of rapid development- Sanheim and Morin come to mind.

And he didn't become a skill guy overnight. Maybe he wasn't in a position to put up points his first two years of junior but going over some old posts and articles Myers has always been described as having good skill. I think we're starting to see it come together.

Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers
Maybe, but again, in a 12 game stretch, I'm not going to jump to any conclusions. If he keeps it up, great. Then I'll get excited, but 12 games just doesn't do it for me.

EDIT: Don't take this as me saying he sucks or isn't going to keep it up...it is just that after the first two weeks of his post-draft-year season I am not going to say we have ourselves a steal or anything like that.

Originally Posted by FLYguy3911
Is it just about seeing him put up numbers though? Because if he stays healthy and with the way R-N scores, he should put up 40 or more. I just watch the kid and come away very impressed with the way he moves, handles the puck, and takes away space from opponents. Am I proclaiming him the next Mark Giordano? No, but to say I'm not excited would be a lie.

Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers
You can be as excited as you want, I'm just always skeptical with these things. He went undrafted and barely put up 10 points in his first 100 junior games. What are the reasons for this? Playing time? Supporting cast? Physical maturity? I don't know, but something caused him to be unable to produce and for scouts to pass on him 200+ times in the draft. I know...scouts make mistakes every year and it doesn't mean anything. But I'll wait to get excited about this guy until he puts up these points consistently. And again...I'm not saying he won't or he can't, I'm just saying I'm not going to include him in any future plans for the Flyers until he does.

There is nothing wrong with any of this DFF...It's on page 10 when Flyguy and Curu are responding to each other and you inject yourself back into the conversation to ram home the fact again (and again and again) that you are not convinced. And thats fine, but enough already.

And no I don't want to put you on ignore because sometimes you do contribute to the conversation.

But please let me say this...We get it. You're not convinced. We get it. No further need to convince us that you're not convinced.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Ok then, stop posting about him. You have made it clear that you are not excited about him. Maybe, later on in the year you will be. Probably not.

For me, I am excited. A free RHD that can skate that is off to a great start this year. And I have barely seen him..I admit that. But that is why people who HAVE watched him like Flyguy, and also R-N fans have been impressed with him. They HAVE seen the difference from last year to this year.

Honest question....have you seen any games of him this year and compared them to last year to see the difference? I doubt you have. I know I have not.

And at what point DO you allow yourself to get excited. What game # is that?

No I've not seen him other than highlight videos that we've all seen, but I don't need to. I don't care if he looks like Wayne Gretzky for the last 12 games, it is still 12 games. I said repeatedly that I'd like to see at least a half season of consistency before I start getting excited, but in all reality probably a full season. And again, as I have repeatedly said, this is not an indictment of the kid. This is not me saying he sucks and will never amount to anything. It is me simply saying that 12 games is not going to change my opinion on a guy and I am literally dumbfounded that that opinion is being met with such disdain as if it is some shocking and asinine statement to make.

I know that this response was just me arguing for the sake of arguing so I am sorry that I responded.

Alright, let me ask you this, if Myers had not been signed, where do you think he would be currently ranked for the 2016 draft?

I suggest that he would be in the ~120-140 range. Which means he's roughly as valuable as a 4th or 5th round pick.

People on here are pleased because Hextall essentially added a free pick. If Hextall announced today that he had magically conjured a 4th round pick for the 2016 draft, I think people would be fairly excited. Well, I think that's essentially the case with Myers, and it should not be strange for people to be pleased by his apparent progression.

I apologize in advance for arguing for the sake of arguing but I am going to respond to this. I honestly don't know where Myers would be ranked for the 2016 draft. I am pleased we got a free pick too. I cannot be more clear that my not getting excited over 12 game doesn't mean I think the kid sucks. If he was a 4th round pick I still would say he's just a 4th round pick. I just think such a drastic change in offensive output over 12 games is not enough to erase 100 games of the complete opposite. This isn't a guy going from 20 points to 40 points. This is a guy going from 12 career points in 106 games to 10 points in 12 games. If he was a 4th rounder doing that, I still wouldn't get too excited. I'd be happy. I'd like it. I certainly wouldn't be mad about the picks. I'd keep an eye on him.

The only reason that draft stock was brought up was because someone referenced Morin's increase in points, to which I responded by talking about an increase in a top 15 overall pick's increase from 16 points in 40 something games to 31 points in 50 something games being different from an undrafted free agent on pace to basically quadruple his point total from his entire career.

I hope that this response won't be construed as arguing for the sake of arguing, but if this topic is really bothering everyone so much a simple solution would be to responding to my posts.

 

[Random Forest]

I apologize in advance for arguing for the sake of arguing but I am going to respond to this. I honestly don't know where Myers would be ranked for the 2016 draft. I am pleased we got a free pick too. I cannot be more clear that my not getting excited over 12 game doesn't mean I think the kid sucks. If he was a 4th round pick I still would say he's just a 4th round pick. I just think such a drastic change in offensive output over 12 games is not enough to erase 100 games of the complete opposite. This isn't a guy going from 20 points to 40 points. This is a guy going from 12 career points in 106 games to 10 points in 12 games. If he was a 4th rounder doing that, I still wouldn't get too excited. I'd be happy. I'd like it. I certainly wouldn't be mad about the picks. I'd keep an eye on him.

The only reason that draft stock was brought up was because someone referenced Morin's increase in points, to which I responded by talking about an increase in a top 15 overall pick's increase from 16 points in 40 something games to 31 points in 50 something games being different from an undrafted free agent on pace to basically quadruple his point total from his entire career.

I hope that this response won't be construed as arguing for the sake of arguing, but if this topic is really bothering everyone so much a simple solution would be to responding to my posts.

Aha, now see this is my point. Your issue isn't with the 12 game sample. Your issue is that you simply don't get excited by the value of a mid round pick (which is fine). Other fans do get excited by picking up that value for free. To each his own.

Just look at Lindblom's thread. There was similar excitement for him last year. Except you didn't complain about that because Lindblom had been drafted which "justified" the hype. Well, I'd argue Myers is a mid-round talent, and the "hype" is pretty similar to other mid-round picks who have performed well in their post-draft years. Nothing terribly unusual about it.