Prospect Info: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc. [The Final 2022, First 2023 Edition]

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Much better to just give it to the other team on a dump or fail to score from the perimeter.

This mindset has served the Flyers so well as they sit dead in the water for years on end.

Do not claim you don't defend every aspect of management if you plan on defending every aspect of management.
No, it just depends on the player. Don't ask players to do things they're not good at.

Lycksell has good but not great speed, he's OK handling the puck, but he's not a great puck handler or playmaker.

At higher levels he's going to be limited as a puck handler and needs to get rid of it, he's not going to skate through three defenders on a regular basis.

"A Man's Got To Know His Limitations."
 
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I thought the people who had this weird need to attach a caveat to anything Jeff Carter ever did would eventually come around with the benefit of distance. I remain dumb and wrong as ever.

I am begging some of you to research aging curves before making fools of yourselves for the millionth time. Some peaks last until 30 or even later. Most don’t. To throw a name out there, Patrice Bergeron is not likely to be a relevant career arc for any Flyer.
 
I thought the people who had this weird need to attach a caveat to anything Jeff Carter ever did would eventually come around with the benefit of distance. I remain dumb and wrong as ever.

I am begging some of you to research aging curves before making fools of yourselves for the millionth time. Some peaks last until 30 or even later. Most don’t. To throw a name out there, Patrice Bergeron is not likely to be a relevant career arc for any Flyer.
I think it's the difference between saying Gauthier's upside might be 25 goals and 50 points at ES in his best years (Carter's peak) v him doing it well into his 30s and lasting as a starter 'till close to 40.

The first isn't an unreachable threshold, the second is low probability - few players play at a high level until 32 and continue to play well into their mid-30s. And most are elite talents, McDavid will probably play until 40 if he wants to barring a serious injury.
Bergeron, Giroux come to mind as lesser talents who are severe outliers.
 
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I think it's the difference between saying Gauthier's upside might be 25 goals and 50 points at ES in his best years

Why are we tossing out PP production for high end Forwards by design?

Why do these 95th+ percentile outcomes get labeled as upside and we’re expected to think that‘s likely to be relevant?

How many Forwards do you think the average draft class has with a peak as high as Carter’s?
 
No, it just depends on the player. Don't ask players to do things they're not good at.

Lycksell has good but not great speed, he's OK handling the puck, but he's not a great puck handler or playmaker.

At higher levels he's going to be limited as a puck handler and needs to get rid of it, he's not going to skate through three defenders on a regular basis.

"A Man's Got To Know His Limitations."

Here's a better idea, don't corrode a skillset a player is good at and that has gotten them where they are.

This shit is why nearly everyone stagnates.

You don't need to defend every stupid thing this team says and does.
 
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Why are we tossing out PP production for high end Forwards by design?

Why do these 95th+ percentile outcomes get labeled as upside and we’re expected to take that seriously?

How many Forwards do you think the average draft class has with a peak as high as Carter’s?
PP production is tricky, depends on usage, the quality of the PP unit (Ovechkin is a bit of an outlier but even he depends on Bergeron to some extent). ES play is easier to compare across players.

I think there's probably a half dozen players in each draft who will have peak years similar to Carter, however, not all are centers (premium value).

2015: McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Meier, Rantanen, Barzal, Connor, Aho
2014: Draisaitl, Nylander, Ehlers, Larkin, Pastrnak, Point
2013: MacKinnon, Barkov, Lindholm, Guentzel
2012: [Forsberg, Hertal just below]
2011: [Landeskog], Huberdeau, [Zibanejad], Scheifele, Couts, Kucherov

Here's a better idea, don't corrode a skillset a player is good at and that has gotten them where they are.

This shit is why nearly everyone stagnates.

You don't need to defend every stupid thing this team says and does.
Lycksell didn't break out in the SHL until he added strength, he wasn't a highly skilled smurf who blew people away with his speed and skill even on the wider ice sheet of the SHL. So yes, he's limited in term of skill, he's not going to make it just on his skating and puck handling, which aren't special at the NHL level.

It would be great to have players like Aho, Point, JG, Crosby, etc., who are pure skill players.
We don't have any of those players, who create space and open things up for linemates.
 
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PP production is tricky, depends on usage, the quality of the PP unit (Ovechkin is a bit of an outlier but even he depends on Bergeron to some extent). ES play is easier to compare across players.

I think there's probably a half dozen players in each draft who will have peak years similar to Carter, however, not all are centers (premium value).

2015: McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Meier, Rantanen, Barzal, Connor, Aho
2014: Draisaitl, Nylander, Ehlers, Larkin, Pastrnak, Point
2013: MacKinnon, Barkov, Lindholm, Guentzel
2012: [Forsberg, Hertal just below]
2011: [Landeskog], Huberdeau, [Zibanejad], Scheifele, Couts, Kucherov


Lycksell didn't break out in the SHL until he added strength, he wasn't a highly skilled smurf who blew people away with his speed and skill even on the wider ice sheet of the SHL. So yes, he's limited in term of skill, he's not going to make it just on his skating and puck handling, which aren't special at the NHL level.

It would be great to have players like Aho, Point, JG, Crosby, etc., who are pure skill players.
We don't have any of those players, who create space and open things up for linemates.

You don't need to be a first liner to play for possession. Did you know that?

That realization is one of many things that separates the good teams from the Flyers. There is zero value, negative value, in actively discouraging a player from building those skills. It's minimizing your prospects. It is terrible development.

You do not need to defend every stupid thing the team says and does.
 
If you draft a player 5th overall and are not penciling him as a PP1 player in his prime, then maybe take 5 steps back and assess the picture. I seriously can’t imagine just throwing away PP usage for a 1st rounder, let alone TOP 5 PICK.

None of this has to do with my evaluation. Just the philosophical absurdity of waving away PP scoring for top prospects. The Flyers having a bottom 3 PP is the cherry on top.
 
Why are we tossing out PP production for high end Forwards by design?

Why do these 95th+ percentile outcomes get labeled as upside and we’re expected to think that‘s likely to be relevant?

How many Forwards do you think the average draft class has with a peak as high as Carter’s?
The same people who dont want to rebuild cause drafting is a lottery say Gauthier will be Carter cause he is drafted at #5.

Ironic....
 
If you draft a player 5th overall and are not penciling him as a PP1 player in his prime, then maybe take 5 steps back and assess the picture. I seriously can’t imagine just throwing away PP usage for a 1st rounder, let alone TOP 5 PICK.

None of this has to do with my evaluation. Just the philosophical absurdity of waving away PP scoring for top prospects. The Flyers having a bottom 3 PP is the cherry on top.

It's ok, the PP doesn't matter. Just ignore it.

Please especially ignore all PPs under Tortorella.
 
I enjoy reading this Flahr prospect article just to reaffirm that "professionals" are cliche-vomitous dullards. He spends thousands of words and somehow never talks about technique, details, nuances. If you're wondering why he and his friendo are such bad draft and NHL talent evaluators, you don't have to overthink it. They sure aren't. Highlights!

GAUTHIER:
  • Speaking of the WJC....."But Cutter at times, he showed what he can do physically as far as dominance, when he’s using his speed, size and strength, and obviously, he’s got the great shot." I must've missed that dominance part?
  • Is he pro ready? "I think Cutter is really driven, really focused, and his conditioning (results) are great." -- thank god his conditioning results are great

FOERSTER:
  • 4 paragraphs talking about his shot in one way or another, with a bonus shoutout to defensive boards work
  • "Eventually, we talked to him (and said), 'With the way you shoot the puck, just hit the net.'” -- riveting!
  • There's a really intelligent playmaker in there, but heaven forbid the team see that. I'm not sure they've ever mentioned anything but his shot

LYCKSELL:
  • "He has things to learn as far as the differences in the (North American) game. He wants to play a possession game and turn back with the puck at times. It was a habit that he had to break" -- I am CRYING; yes, please break that possession game habit
  • "Right now with (Joel) Farabee, JvR, and Hayesy on left wing, and Deslauriers for the fourth line, he’s got to wait for — I don’t want to say you want an injury." -- @Beef Invictus , Deslauriers will NOT block prospects

ZAMULA:
  • "I think he was one of those guys that Torts just kind of gravitated towards as camp went on. I don’t think he knew who he was. And then the game on the Island where he blocked shots and he did a bunch of things that really — I don’t know why — but just kind of caught his eye."

KAPLAN:
  • "Part of his game is being aggressive, being physical, being hard to go against. But he’s big and strong, and every time he hit, he seemed to get a penalty, and every scrum he got in, he was getting a penalty. [....] You want to be big and physical and heavy, but you can’t hurt your team. And I think the coaches worked with him on that." -- incisive!
  • Nothing about passing, or transition, or any real skills; it was legit entirely about penalties
Charlie :”how do you make a decision to select two similarly ranked prospects at draft time?”

Flahr:“Well, the first thing we do is contact their respective teams and see their 40 time.”

Charlie: “40-time? What about the 40-time distinguishes one prospect from another?”

Flahr:” We believe that your ability to put on size is directly correlated to your ability to eat. So knowing how fast prospects can eat 40 hotdogs, tells us a lot about their genetic makeup. Also, it takes a lot of intangibles to eat 40 hot dogs. I can eat 20 to 25 hot dogs no problem, but it’s those last 15 that you have to push through. Those last 15 dogs…that’s where you find out who is a man and who is a child.”

Charlie:…

*Awkward silence*

Flahr: *blinks* “further, the flyers believe hot dogs are sandwiches…”

Charlie:”I think we’re done here”
 
I think it's the difference between saying Gauthier's upside might be 25 goals and 50 points at ES in his best years (Carter's peak) v him doing it well into his 30s and lasting as a starter 'till close to 40.

The first isn't an unreachable threshold, the second is low probability - few players play at a high level until 32 and continue to play well into their mid-30s. And most are elite talents, McDavid will probably play until 40 if he wants to barring a serious injury.
Bergeron, Giroux come to mind as lesser talents who are severe outliers.
During Carter’s peak years there were like 2-3 nhl players who scored 100 points or more. A 25g/50p player then is not the same player now, in terms of pure production at least.
 
Carter's peak years were from 2008-2016 or so.
2008: 12 players with 25+ goals, 12 with 50+ points - 8 with both
2009: 10 players with 25+ goals, 18 with 50+ points - 10 with both (including Chris Stewart!)
2010: 13 players with 25+ goals, 12 with 50+ points - 10 with both
2015: 10 players with 25+ goals, 12 with 50+ points - 5 with both

2017: 20 players with 25+ goals, 33 with 50+ points - 16 with both
2018: 23 players with 25+ goals, 37 with 50+ points - 17 with both
2021: 31 players with 25+ goals, 45 with 50+ points, 12 players with 30+ goals, 15 with 60+ points
26 in the 25/25 club, 10 in the 30/30 club
2022: 11 players with 20+ goals, 13 with 40+ points (about 51 games so this would be 30/60 pace)

So 25/50 has inflated to 30/60.
Still, 25/50 makes you a top of the first line caliber scorer (i.e. 96 1st line forwards, 48 is the median).
30/60 puts you in a much smaller group. Do this a few times and you're in HOF territory.
To put this in perspective, G had one 25 goal season, and his point highs were 66, 61, 53, 50, 49.
 
PP points are highly variable season to season, xGF/60 is more stable.
Usually if you can score at 5x5 you'll play on PP1, but top PP scoring seasons seem to be random over a player's career.

Older players can also excel on the PP when they've lost a stride and are no longer top players 5x5, b/c you don't do a lot of skating on the PP.
 
According to Flahr, Sami has been working with Tuomaala.

(Flyers development coach) Sami Kapanen spends a lot of time with him, and is trying to get through to him the way he has to play. In junior … he’s a strong kid, he can fly and he can really shoot the puck. Unfortunately, when you get to the pro level, there’s things you have to do as far as managing the puck, and expectations away from the puck where he needs to get to. Especially in Finnish hockey, the details are very good, which helps for development.

But he wasn’t getting it, and obviously it impacted his ice time. So Sami had him get (sent) down (to Mestis) and he’s producing now, he’s showing a little more confidence and getting his game going in the right direction. But he’s got a ways to go to earn that trust every night and be up. At the same time, we just want him to play, and play lots of minutes here down the stretch and hopefully get his game back to where it needs to be and reset for next year.

 
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After his Mestis loan, Tuomaala played 2 Liiga games and now he has been a healthy scratch for 3 games in a row. Probably not good.

Sami Kapanen was watching today's Ilves-Jukurit game live at the arena. Maybe he was there to scout Tuomaala?
But he didn't play. lol

As much as we do appreciate you efforts to update us on him, he's simply not an NHL prospect anymore.
 
Flahr on the top ten:

Gauthier:

I think that line, they played together for a long time (at the U.S. National Team Development Program). But Cutter at times, he showed what he can do physically as far as dominance, when he’s using his speed, size and strength, and obviously, he’s got the great shot. But when you’re just relying on waiting for the puck to come to you and then shooting it into the net, that’s great. But there’s a whole other level to his game too which he can get to, which he’s shown that he can do. He’s showing it this year at BC.

Brink:

But I think he’s in a good spot right now. He’s playing lots. But to throw him into the NHL right now wouldn’t be very wise. My guess is just the pace of (his) play just isn’t yet where it was at a year ago at this time. I think obviously getting stronger, quicker, faster is one thing, but for players like that, it’s more of the pace of the play. He’s obviously an extremely smart player with skill. But being able to execute at top speed and the pace of the NHL… he’s gotta be able to do that at this level.

Foerster:

He was trying to pick like the top two inches of the friggin’ net every time, and missing nine times out of 10. Eventually, we talked to him (and said), “With the way you shoot the puck, just hit the net.” There’s going to be rebounds, there’s going to be other things. Even if you have to take a little bit off it to just to get it net sometimes, it’s better than just wiring it off the glass and around.

But at the same time, during that slump, I thought he really improved his wall play, as far as defensive zone, even offensive zone possession time. He’s always probably going to be a bit of a streaky scorer. But the way he shoots the puck, and he’s got a swagger, he’s got that confidence. And he’s getting more and more confident at that level every game, and hopefully he has a big second half.

At some point, you may bring him up to get a look, but I don’t think putting him on a fourth line is better for him. I think it’s just healthy for him to find his game, and be a dominant player down there eventually, and then when he does get his call, he’s ready to go.

Andrae:

But I think both parties are in agreement — if things go well — we’ll look to bring him over as early as after their season’s finished up. Maybe to come over and see Lehigh, and maybe get in games (on an amateur tryout contract) and see where his game’s at. But I think he’s — unless something changes — ready to come over and start playing over here.

Ersson:

But at the same time, at some point here, he’s gonna get back up and get another look. But rather than playing once a week, I think playing three times a week for him right now is best for his development.

Zamula:


I think he was one of those guys that Torts just kind of gravitated towards as camp went on. I don’t think he knew who he was. I think he got a soft spot for him. He can see the hockey sense, he can see the stick detail defensively, he can see the ability with the puck.

I think the first couple of weeks down there, just mentally, he was just frustrated. He was hoping he would stick (in the NHL). Then a couple weeks after that, he started to play (better). Defensively, he’s got real good reads. He’s got the long, long reach. Guys think you have him beat, and he just has the stick to get in the way, (plus) his skating. Egor is a smart player. I think he knows he can play, and I think Torts and our coaching staff knows he’s going to be part of it going here forward. It’s just a matter of keeping him focused. It’s one of the good things about having Anisimov down there. He’s been really good with a lot of the other players, including Egor.

I think his poise is a major strength. But at times, especially when the pace of games pick up, or when you’re playing the Colorado Avalanche, you have to make the plays quick (or) turnovers eventually cost you. Does he have to do things quicker? Yes. And I think he understands that. I was always worried about it, but I think he’s getting stronger. He can be hard enough to get body position or puck angles and move it in tight little areas.

Kaplan:

Part of his game is being aggressive, being physical, being hard to go against. But he’s big and strong, and every time he hit, he seemed to get a penalty, and every scrum he got in, he was getting a penalty. So part of it was finding his happy medium. And I think the coaches worked with him on that. Part of it is some adjustments to the pace of the game. He arrives at the net all the time, he’s always at the net when the whistle goes. He’s gonna get dirty goals, but he’s showing more and more confidence on the cycle and holding onto the puck. It’s been a real positive first half for him.

I don’t see any reason to rush him. You want him to have some offensive success. And we want him to be the heavy, big power forward, and play tough. You want him confident handling the puck and scoring goals and being a force before he turns pro. Realistically, it takes these bigger guys a little bit more time. He works hard off the ice. They have a good program there, especially off the ice. BU has been known for that.

Attard:

I think he’s been up and down. When he went down … he was trying to do too much. Still is, in some cases. His intentions are good. It’s just finding that balance. You don’t want to neuter the offense, you want him up ice doing things. Part of it is just managing the game a little bit — when to do it, and when not. And other times, it’s just managing the puck. His game’s been a bit of a roller coaster ride for him this year. I know Torts likes him, with his size and his shot and his ability. But he wants to make sure you do it right. The last thing a kid like that (needs) is to be on a yo-yo (up and down between the NHL and the minors).

Desnoyers:

He’s a smart player, confident. He’s got the great motor — never stops working whether it’s practice or (games). He wins coaches over. His details are very good. Just a highly competitive kid and a kid that’s really driven to play. He needs time. He’s not the biggest body, he’s gonna have to put in the time to get stronger, put a little bit of weight on. And obviously as that happens, he’ll gain a step as well. Production aside, he does all the little things well on the defensive side of things. His reads and battles — a very mature game for a young kid.

I think realistically he’s gonna be a utility type of guy. He can play wing, he can play center. I think he’s very responsible. I think that side of his game will probably get him to the NHL. How much he produces once he’s there tells you how high in the lineup he can get. But he’s put himself on the radar. Down the road, whenever he’s physically ready, he’s going to get that shot and make the most of it.

Lycksell

He’s not an 18-year-old kid coming out of junior. Physically he’s — if you’ve seen him two or three years ago at development camp, he was so tiny and light, but he really worked at his game, worked at his body off the ice, and he just had a steady progression upwards.
He’s a kid that’s kind of wired differently. He’s a really intense kid. A lot of Swedes are easygoing. But he is driven. He wants to play a possession game and turn back with the puck at times. It was a habit that he had to break. He has skill offensively. At the same time, he is competent on the defensive side of things. And I think he’s been noticed by Torts, right from one of the first days of camp, I think he caught Torts’ eye. He had a good camp.

But I think he’s got to get the opportunity and play in the right spot, and hopefully not just come up and try to survive, but come up and try to play his game and, and have some success and build on. A lot of these kids come up here and just try not to make a mistake. rather than trying to impact the game. But effort with him is never an issue.
 
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I think they want to see how he finishes the season, and if BC makes the playoffs, how he performs when the stakes are higher.
 
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