Prospect Info: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc. [The Fall 2022 Edition]

[deadhead]

Phantoms win again in overtime, Desnoyers SH goal, Ginning goal and an assist, Anisimov 2 goals, Bellows a goal and 2 assists.

 

[Beef Invictus]

But Homer had the titles, therefore he made all the decisions, or so I've been told.

Homer didn't appear out of the ether.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

I don’t believe that Comcast is unaware of the mess that the Flyers are. They’re a bad look for the organization. Financially they are a hit in several ways.
ASP probably is on to something regarding a shakeup coming in the near future. He does have some sources in the organization. I doubt that he would be floating such things without some credible sources of information.
The questions about this are when and how deep of a cut? On (1) I’d bet on after Christmas; perhaps around New Year’s. (2) Fletcher out completely and Briere in. Lombardi to stick around for a while. Flahr gone. The new person hired in from Washington to handle the business side of the franchise. More changes to come in scouting and development during the upcoming offseason.

Are people actually this naive?

He's basically making a prediction everybody on this board knows is going to happen in the next what 3 months? Can I claim it comes from a source in the organization and then use it as proof when it happens?

Player over mystery box especially as I see some upside there still. I guess it's how you view second round picks. Allison is very much like job in that injuries have shaped much of his development. He doesn't have the upside of brink but I think he's likely to play more games than ginning. Not unlike ratcliffe he should be a late bloomer. The issue I foresaw with O'Brien was him finding confidence as the talent gap closed up but he's shown that competitive mindset.

I haven't seen you refer to a single tangible hockey skill this whole time.

 

[mja]

I have no idea why you insist on overemphasizing Holmgren over Clarke, as if Clarke isn't also responsible for Homer.

It's so bizarre. The whole Clarke GM Tree is rotten and needs to be uprooted. My only guess is that he's been critical of Homer in the past, so by pinning all of the blame on Homer, he gets to feel like he's right or at least not wrong.

 

[deadhead]

It's so bizarre. The whole Clarke GM Tree is rotten and needs to be uprooted. My only guess is that he's been critical of Homer in the past, so by pinning all of the blame on Homer, he gets to feel like he's right or at least not wrong.

Homer was GM starting in 2007, promoted to President in May 2014, "retired" in July 2019.
So he directly influenced every major decision leading up to the current mess.
Clarke may have played an important role, but it was behind the scenes.

 

[mja]

Homer was GM starting in 2007, promoted to President in May 2014, "retired" in July 2019.
So he directly influenced every major decision leading up to the current mess.
Clarke may have played an important role, but it was behind the scenes.

It's all the same people! They're all to blame! Chuck is Homer! Homer is Clarke! Clarke is Chuck! There's no meaningful distinction.

 

[deadhead]

Meanwhile, Toumaala keeps racking up nice numbers in Mestis, 12g 11-9 20 +13.
If he was doing this in the CHL as a D+2, you'd all be excited.
Mestis is probably between CHL and NCAA play. So yes, it is impressive.
Now let's see him maintain this pace for another 40 games.

 

[Tripod]

Player over mystery box especially as I see some upside there still. I guess it's how you view second round picks. Allison is very much like job in that injuries have shaped much of his development. He doesn't have the upside of brink but I think he's likely to play more games than ginning. Not unlike ratcliffe he should be a late bloomer. The issue I foresaw with O'Brien was him finding confidence as the talent gap closed up but he's shown that competitive mindset.

You don't only have to make a pick, with that pick. It can be used to move up in a draft. Trade for a player better than JOB. Remember Bjorkstrand got traded for a 3rd and 4th.

It really up simple....JOB is not worth a 2nd. Take the pick.

 

[deadhead]

It really up simple....JOB is not worth a 2nd. Take the pick.

It's even simpler, wait until the end of his college season, monitor his progress (or lack of such) and then make that decision.
Options have value, so why make pre-mature decisions when there is no cost to waiting.

 

[mr4tno]

Hopefully Anisimov impresses some other NHL team, and they offer him an NHL contract, which FORTUNATELY for us, Fletcher cannot right now

 

[deadhead]

I'd rather Anisimov stays with LHV, b/c he's helping the young forwards develop.

 

[Magua]

Meanwhile, Toumaala keeps racking up nice numbers in Mestis, 12g 11-9 20 +13.
If he was doing this in the CHL as a D+2, you'd all be excited.
Mestis is probably between CHL and NCAA play. So yes, it is impressive.
Now let's see him maintain this pace for another 40 games.

I'll just quote myself:

Do you know how many drafted players have played in Mestis this season -- I'm talking even suited up? Besides 46th overall Tuomaala, there are 6. Picks: #132 (2020), #184 (2021), #211 (2019), #199 (2022), #189 (2021), #204 (2019). Three 7th rounders, two 6th rounders, a 5th rounder. Three of those players have played 4 games combined; another, the 5th rounder, was an unsigned Canadian WHL player.

It is not a feeder league; there are 28 u21 drafted players in Liiga this season. Real prospects rarely play there, and if they do, it's usually in their ages 16-17 seasons, sometimes in short stints. Tuomaala, almost 20, is the only one currently with an NHL contract (Chuck is always first in line), and it's quite likely none of those 6 will ever get one.

So, while it's better Tuomaala isn't doing poorly in Mestis too (likely part shooting heater), the point is: does it actually mean a thing in projecting him?

Yes, if he was tearing up the CHL, people would be a lot more excited. Because that's an NHL feeder league. I'm not sure there is a single NHL player currently who primarily played Mestis at age 19-20. Quick research shows Lindell played 11 Mestis games at age 19 and 44 Liiga games. It's simply not an NHL feeder, and most real prospects don't even touch that league, maybe minus stints at age 16 or 17. It was already mentioned it's the highest scoring pro league.

Shout it 'till you're blue in the face: the fact he has real hockey sense concerns that were identified pre-draft, never really produced great u20 SM-liiga numbers (a whopping 5 points in 10 games this year), can't make a WJC roster, and can't cut it in Liiga is not impressive. Winning CHL Player of the Year at age 18, being over 2 ppg at 19, leading 2 Canadian WJC teams......now that's impressive.

 

[deadhead]

Let's just see how it plays out, so far he's putting up impressive numbers, if he keeps it up, he'll be back in Liiga before the end of the season. Metsis may not be a feeder league, but from what I've gathered, the level of competition is slightly above the CHL and below NCAA, so dominating this league at 19 is a good sign - but just like CHL production - it doesn't guarantee shit. However, he basically missed all of last season being stubborn, hopefully he's learned his lesson and some humility.

If he starts in Liiga next year at 20, that would put him on a normal track.
Liiga is not full of NHL draft picks, of the top 50 scorers,
#24 Jasek (25) #174
#25 Ray (21) #151
#31 Puistola (21) #73
#42 Huuhtaten (19) #224

But the same holds for the SHL:
#37 Andrae (20) #54
#44 Wallinder (20) #32
#45 Johannesson (21) #176
#73 Kasper (18) #8

Liiga is generally considered just below the SHL and around the AHL in terms of strength of competition.
It's definitely a veteran's league, like the SHL, so it's tough for young players to shine initially.

I'll defer to @Appleyard for why there are so few NHL prospects, given that Finland produces its share of NHL players.

 

[Tripod]

Guys who make the WJC are not that good.

White knightIng for a guy not good enough for WJC.

 

[Appleyard]

Let's just see how it plays out, so far he's putting up impressive numbers, if he keeps it up, he'll be back in Liiga before the end of the season. Metsis may not be a feeder league, but from what I've gathered, the level of competition is slightly above the CHL and below NCAA, so dominating this league at 19 is a good sign - but just like CHL production - it doesn't guarantee shit. However, he basically missed all of last season being stubborn, hopefully he's learned his lesson and some humility.

If he starts in Liiga next year at 20, that would put him on a normal track.
Liiga is not full of NHL draft picks, of the top 50 scorers,
#24 Jasek (25) #174
#25 Ray (21) #151
#31 Puistola (21) #73
#42 Huuhtaten (19) #224

But the same holds for the SHL:
#37 Andrae (20) #54
#44 Wallinder (20) #32
#45 Johannesson (21) #176
#73 Kasper (18) #8

Liiga is generally considered just below the SHL and around the AHL in terms of strength of competition.
It's definitely a veteran's league, like the SHL, so it's tough for young players to shine initially.

I'll defer to @Appleyard for why there are so few NHL prospects, given that Finland produces its share of NHL players.

Mainly as most NHL prospects show they are good enough for Liiga by age ~18-19 really. So very few play Mestis after their draft year. As the drop-off between Liiga and Mestis is veeeery big, unlike say SHL and Allsvenskan where top ~5 Allsvenskan teams are pretty much able to hang with SHL teams.

It is very rare that any player who has NHL potential is ever in Mestia after 18. It has basically never happened. As would be like a guy going to ECHL at ~19-20 years old instead of AHL.

 

[deadhead]

Mainly as most NHL prospects show they are good enough for Liiga by age ~18-19 really. So very few play Mestis after their draft year. As the drop-off between Liiga and Mestis is veeeery big, unlike say SHL and Allsvenskan where top ~5 Allsvenskan teams are pretty much able to hang with SHL teams.

It is very rare that any player who has NHL potential is ever in Mestia after 18. It has basically never happened. As would be like a guy going to ECHL at ~19-20 years old instead of AHL.

Actually, I think NHL teams would love to send their second tier prospects to the ECHL instead of the CHL if they could, so they'd have more control over their development.

However, few players with NHL potential go to Allsvenskan either - top scorers:
last year #17 Bergkvist (22) #200 and #40 Andre [involuntarily, his team was demoted]
this year #5 Pasic (22) #189, #57 Ohgren (18) #19, #59 Nybeck (20) #115

That surprised me, that so few NHL draft picks are in any of the Finnish or Swedish leagues.
Guess NHL teams are making it a priority to bring them over earlier.

 

[Magua]

I hope Tuomaala carves out a satisfying pro career, but he is not tracking as an NHL player. Which is insane in his D+2 as a 2nd rounder. Chuck mega-f***ed up the easy chalk pick -- it's okay to say it.

 

[deadhead]

Maybe we wait a year or two?
Tuomaala screwed up his D+1 season when he refused to go to the CHL, wasn't ready for the AHL, then looked lost in Liiga.
Maybe he's not good enough, maybe the light has gone on.

If I've learned one thing about prospects, it's to generally discount CHL and lower European leagues, top players shine, but so do overage players and those with good offensive skills but limited otherwise. The real prospects don't miss a beat when they hit the AHL at 20-21 (if they don't pass Go).

I withhold opinion on Tuomaala until he's 21 and has a year or two in Liiga under his belt, you'd expect him to struggle his first season, but if he's for real, to make a significant jump his second season playing against men.

 

[Beef Invictus]

In a year or two you'll find a way to blame Holmgren instead of Fletcher.

 

[captainpaxil]

I haven't seen you refer to a single tangible hockey skill this whole time.

Despite coming off hip surgery his speed has held up. He's not a burner but he's got good enough puck control that he's good on the forecheck and in transition. He got bodied his first year and his willingness is there in the corners but it seems like he hasn't made up the time in the gym as well as on the ice. He's got a good shot but I don't see the vision of a top end center.
I argued he should have been signed after his freshman year as getting him around pro trainers and talent would be great but instead it's been a lot of zigzagging that has made his progression hard to follow.
I watch the occasional college game for flyers prospects but my general idea is there's one year guys who need gym time and four year guys who need coaching. O'Brien still needs a bit of both but I think there's a player there. He was at a ppg pace last year

 

[Magua]

JOB can build up fine with his speed, but I’ve always found his first steps and short area work mushy. He’s not exactly a pretty skater, hunched over and short with his stride. His production hasn’t exploded at age 23, he doesn’t look like any area of his skill set has been drastically improved, I honestly can’t say he’s an NHLer.

It’s a pretty easy decision to me to just reset 5 years younger. I don’t think the worst case of letting him go is that worst case. This team needs a 2nd to dump a contract.

 

[Tripod]

Can't make this shit up.

Dead: I will defer to Appleyard
Apple: its basically never happened
Dead: I will wait 2 more years instead of deferring.

 

[TB87]

Can't make this shit up.

Dead: I will defer to Appleyard
Apple: its basically never happened
Dead: I will wait 2 more years instead of deferring.

Why do any of us engage with him? He’s not interested in having an actual conversation. He wants to set fires, obfuscate, and bow at the altar of the “infallible majesty” that is the Flyers front office. Ultimately, he just wants to piss people off. There is no need for anyone to feed this particular beast.

 

[gertbfrobe16]

Player over mystery box especially as I see some upside there still. I guess it's how you view second round picks. Allison is very much like job in that injuries have shaped much of his development. He doesn't have the upside of brink but I think he's likely to play more games than ginning. Not unlike ratcliffe he should be a late bloomer. The issue I foresaw with O'Brien was him finding confidence as the talent gap closed up but he's shown that competitive mindset.

The problem with all of this is, Flyers development. It sucks.

 

[deadhead]

Why do any of us engage with him? He’s not interested in having an actual conversation. He wants to set fires, obfuscate, and bow at the altar of the “infallible majesty” that is the Flyers front office. Ultimately, he just wants to piss people off. There is no need for anyone to feed this particular beast.

It's funny, all I did was list the draft picks in the SHL, Liiga, Mestis and Allsvenskan.
Now if the results don't fit preconceived notions, don't blame me, create your own facts, or find some lumberjacks.