Peterborough Petes 2023-24 Season Thread (Part One)

[OMG67]

Read the article by Mike Davies, the last time the Petes were in this position they only traded the two top players: Steve Downie and Daniel Ryder, the next 8 years they didn't win a playoff series and missed the payoffs 4 times... The return on Downie was Bastien and 3-2nds, on Ryder - John Armstrong, 2nd, 3rd and a 5th which would be about what would be expected for Beck and Mayer.

There is no gentle way to go about this...

To be fair, back in those days, the trade returns were a lot more modest than they are now.

 

[dirty12]

12-3-3-1
But the internal discussion is how much of the team is gutted. Beck and Mayer will be gone by the deadline. If that does not get the Petes two 2006-07 players and 2, 3, 4, 5 picks for the upcoming draft; more will be moved imo.

 

[OMG67]

12-3-3-1
But the internal discussion is how much of the team is gutted. Beck and Mayer will be gone by the deadline. If that does not get the Petes two 2006-07 players and 2, 3, 4, 5 picks for the upcoming draft; more will be moved imo.

I can see Beck returning an ‘06 or decent ‘07 plus picks but I am not 100% sure those picks would all be in 2024.

I still have an issue with the value placed on Mayer as an OA. It is hard to find an exact comparable to use to valuse this deal but even if we pull up the DelMastro trade last year and found a happy spot between that deal and the Lleyton Moore deal, I don’t think it is realistic to land on an ‘06/‘07 (of any consequence) plus multiple picks. I honestly feel the return is probably leaning more towards the Lleyton Moore trade (2nd, 3rd, 8th and a good OA in Serpa) Than the DelMastro trade (2nd and Martone). Even the Hays and White deal for two impactful OA’s last year for the Petes was less than what many are valuing Mayer at.

If we find a middle ground on Mayer going to Sudbury, I think Protz plus a 2nd, 3rd, 4th would be a very good haul. Protz is a middling prospect that can eat some minutes But he isn’t projected to lead a defence in the future.

 

[HockeyPops]

Serpa was ok, but I don't think much value was given to him in that trade. He was more a throw in rather than waiving him.

 

[dirty12]

I can see Beck returning an ‘06 or decent ‘07 plus picks but I am not 100% sure those picks would all be in 2024.

I still have an issue with the value placed on Mayer as an OA. It is hard to find an exact comparable to use to valuse this deal but even if we pull up the DelMastro trade last year and found a happy spot between that deal and the Lleyton Moore deal, I don’t think it is realistic to land on an ‘06/‘07 (of any consequence) plus multiple picks. I honestly feel the return is probably leaning more towards the Lleyton Moore trade (2nd, 3rd, 8th and a good OA in Serpa) Than the DelMastro trade (2nd and Martone). Even the Hays and White deal for two impactful OA’s last year for the Petes was less than what many are valuing Mayer at.

If we find a middle ground on Mayer going to Sudbury, I think Protz plus a 2nd, 3rd, 4th would be a very good haul. Protz is a middling prospect that can eat some minutes But he isn’t projected to lead a defence in the future.

That return for Mayer would be a great haul, I think. Protz is pretty good. I would be very reluctant to trade him for Smith.
I was thinking A.Xhekaj type deal with an OA returned , slightly less if Punnett is on the market.

Picks for Beck cannot be expected all for ‘24 draft, one in ‘24 or cut demands drastically imo.

 

[Section5Petes]

Zach Bowen is making his PMC debut with tonight’s start against Windsor!

 

[frontsfan67]

I can see Beck returning an ‘06 or decent ‘07 plus picks but I am not 100% sure those picks would all be in 2024.

I still have an issue with the value placed on Mayer as an OA. It is hard to find an exact comparable to use to valuse this deal but even if we pull up the DelMastro trade last year and found a happy spot between that deal and the Lleyton Moore deal, I don’t think it is realistic to land on an ‘06/‘07 (of any consequence) plus multiple picks. I honestly feel the return is probably leaning more towards the Lleyton Moore trade (2nd, 3rd, 8th and a good OA in Serpa) Than the DelMastro trade (2nd and Martone). Even the Hays and White deal for two impactful OA’s last year for the Petes was less than what many are valuing Mayer at.

If we find a middle ground on Mayer going to Sudbury, I think Protz plus a 2nd, 3rd, 4th would be a very good haul. Protz is a middling prospect that can eat some minutes But he isn’t projected to lead a defence in the future.

I agree. Mayer although he’s good I’m not sure is worth an 07 who you get 5 years out of or an 06 who you get 4 years out of. He’s an OA and as we all know the prices for OA’s has really shrunk this season. I think a more realistic one is an 05, 2 2nds, and 1 3rd.

But beck you’ll obviously get a mctavish-esque trade.

 

[NorthernVoice]

12-3-3-1
But the internal discussion is how much of the team is gutted. Beck and Mayer will be gone by the deadline. If that does not get the Petes two 2006-07 players and 2, 3, 4, 5 picks for the upcoming draft; more will be moved imo.

If it doesn't get the Petes that, they don't trade them

 

[Petes1987]

Another day mmmm

12-3-3-1
But the internal discussion is how much of the team is gutted. Beck and Mayer will be gone by the deadline. If that does not get the Petes two 2006-07 players and 2, 3, 4, 5 picks for the upcoming draft; more will be moved imo.

The Petes do not need an other 5th as they already have two. They will likely ask for a 2nd in 2024 in the Owen Beck trade and 3rd in 2024 in the Sam Mayer deal. If they get those a 4th is not a priority. They also need to get a 2nd in both 2025 and 2026 and a 3rd in 2026 in these two deals.

 

[beastintheeast]

The big issue is who is going to be buying and selling.

If the Petes and Kitchener for instance, sell, then you are going to see a flood and that may dilute the price.

The other difference is in the coaching and GM of the team it has also changed.

As to Sudbury I think the challenge there is that they have to start winning as a team before they can start looking at trading for players and giving up draft picks and players.

 

[Section5Petes]

To be honest that is how I expected that first period to to. Windsor had a lot of jump and expectedly so. 40 minutes to go but the Petes gotta be a lot better

 

[Section7fan]

To be honest that is how I expected that first period to to. Windsor had a lot of jump and expectedly so. 40 minutes to go but the Petes gotta be a lot better

First 10 of the 2nd were good but they dropped back off again.

The big issue is who is going to be buying and selling.

If the Petes and Kitchener for instance, sell, then you are going to see a flood and that may dilute the price.

The other difference is in the coaching and GM of the team it has also changed.

As to Sudbury I think the challenge there is that they have to start winning as a team before they can start looking at trading for players and giving up draft picks and players.

I don’t think Kitchener can sell based on what they got going.

Sudbury is Sudbury.

 

[Section7fan]

Can’t show up for 10 minutes and expect to win a game even if it’s the last place team.

This team is going to have a heck of a time scoring goals without Beck.

 

[Section5Petes]

TRAP GAME TRAP GAME TRAP GAME. Expected nothing less with this game. Windsor was due. Uncharacteristically sloppy D game for us and we lost a ton of puck battles in all three zone. move past it and keep this train rolling.

 

[User13452]

That game tonight shows why the Petes won’t be buyers lol

 

[Petes1987]

Can’t show up for 10 minutes and expect to win a game even if it’s the last place team.

This team is going to have a heck of a time scoring goals without Beck.

Isn’t Jonathan Melee leading the team in scoring? He had 4 goals and 4 assists in 3 games last weekend. Jax Dubois and Sam McCue both had 5 points in three games on the road trip. None of them are linemates with Owen Beck. The Petes have other players that are contributing offensively.

 

[NorthernVoice]

Isn’t Jonathan Melee leading the team in scoring? He had 4 goals and 4 assists in 3 games last weekend. Jax Dubois and Sam McCue both had 5 points in three games on the road trip. None of them are linemates with Owen Beck. The Petes have other players that are contributing offensively.

Beck is the engine. It's pretty clear watching them. I don't think they're helpless without him and I like the secondary players but if they're serious about this year and not trading Beck, they very clearly need a couple more scorers.

 

[Ryan Christensen]

Windsor out worked out played and frustrated beck ok n multiple occasions impressive game from them

 

[OMG67]

Beck is the engine. It's pretty clear watching them. I don't think they're helpless without him and I like the secondary players but if they're serious about this year and not trading Beck, they very clearly need a couple more scorers.

Lefebvre, Melee, and Dubois combined for 18 goals last year. The Petes aren’t 20 games into the season yet and those three guys are already at 18.

The question is how realistic is it for the Petes to expect that to continue through the full season? You don’t normally see that type of improvement from 19 and 20 year olds after being mostly depth players their career prior to this season.

One could argue it is an instrument of added ice time and responsibility. The more time they get, the more points they produce. Agreed. But, you have to wonder if Dubois and Melee are truly 70+ point players or is this a nice little start and they trail off and settle in at around 50ish points which would double last years production.

This is a question that needs to be answered by management because that forecast will go a long way towards decisions on how to approach the second half.

 

[Section7fan]

Lefebvre, Melee, and Dubois combined for 18 goals last year. The Petes aren’t 20 games into the season yet and those three guys are already at 18.

The question is how realistic is it for the Petes to expect that to continue through the full season? You don’t normally see that type of improvement from 19 and 20 year olds after being mostly depth players their career prior to this season.

One could argue it is an instrument of added ice time and responsibility. The more time they get, the more points they produce. Agreed. But, you have to wonder if Dubois and Melee are truly 70+ point players or is this a nice little start and they trail off and settle in at around 50ish points which would double last years production.

This is a question that needs to be answered by management because that forecast will go a long way towards decisions on how to approach the second half.

Come on. It’s really not that uncommon for players to flourish in their 19/20 year old seasons when given bigger roles with better players. Development doesn’t just halt when you turn 19. A seasoned OHL fan should know this.

We all know they aren’t going to buy at the deadline.

 

[OMG67]

Come on. It’s really not that uncommon for players to flourish in their 19/20 year old seasons when given bigger roles with better players. Development doesn’t just halt when you turn 19. A seasoned OHL fan should know this.

We all know they aren’t going to buy at the deadline.

3 of them though? THREE. Not one. THREE.

It is not common for a 20 year old to duplicate the previous seasons stats after 20 games. That is not common. Two guys are going from 25 points to a 70 point pace. One as a 19 year old and the other as a 20 year old.

Don’t act like it is common. It is not. There are outliers, yes. If we look hard enough, we can find a handful of examples but not this many all on one team in the same season. Usually when you see it you see a guy that is riding shotgun as the third wheel on a line with an elite couple players when stretching out scoring. But these guys are driving their line, not riding shotgun with better players.

Lefebvre and Dubois weren’t even in the league as 17 year olds.

The point still remains. Considering this is not common, is it ”reasonable” to bank on these guys carrying the team out of the blue For a full season when none of them have a track record of doing so? You could even add Purdeller to that list of players. He is on pace to double his stat line. Although, doubling is not all that uncommon. That definitely happens, especially for second year Imports as 19 year olds.

McCoy is also stepping up in a huge way BUT it is more common to see D-Men dramatically increase their point totals as 19 year olds so that wouldn’t really be a good example. That said, cumulatively, a lot of players have increased their production 2x+ in the early going. This has to be a serious discussion point for management. They have to be questioning the possibility of it carrying through an entire season.

 

[Section7fan]

3 of them though? THREE. Not one. THREE.

It is not common for a 20 year old to duplicate the previous seasons stats after 20 games. That is not common. Two guys are going from 25 points to a 70 point pace. One as a 19 year old and the other as a 20 year old.

Don’t act like it is common. It is not. There are outliers, yes. If we look hard enough, we can find a handful of examples but not this many all on one team in the same season. Usually when you see it you see a guy that is riding shotgun as the third wheel on a line with an elite couple players when stretching out scoring. But these guys are driving their line, not riding shotgun with better players.

Lefebvre and Dubois weren’t even in the league as 17 year olds.

The point still remains. Considering this is not common, is it ”reasonable” to bank on these guys carrying the team out of the blue For a full season when none of them have a track record of doing so? You could even add Purdeller to that list of players. He is on pace to double his stat line. Although, doubling is not all that uncommon. That definitely happens, especially for second year Imports as 19 year olds.

McCoy is also stepping up in a huge way BUT it is more common to see D-Men dramatically increase their point totals as 19 year olds so that wouldn’t really be a good example. That said, cumulatively, a lot of players have increased their production 2x+ in the early going. This has to be a serious discussion point for management. They have to be questioning the possibility of it carrying through an entire season.

Not once did I say all of them would and not once did I say they would all have 70 point seasons. I disputed the fact that 19/20 YO players hardly ever have breakout seasons when given bigger roles.

I’m not making an argument that they should be counted on to make the team as a contender because this team is not one in my eyes. Melee is the only one I truly anticipate to make huge strides because he’s shown flashes in the past.

The team needs to sell and count on the coaching staff to develop more later round picks like they did with Konnor Smith and Tucker Robertson.

 

[OHLTG]

Sorry, came to see about game talk and the "breakout seasons at 19" topic made my ears perk. Last season, Windsor had three players explode at age 19 - Christopoulos, Maillet, and Peer - and you could argue that Maggio was in that category, too, going from 85 to 111. It's not common but it can definitely happen with the right systems and linemates. Sometimes all a player needs is an opportunity and they take off.

 

[dirty12]

3 of them though? THREE. Not one. THREE.

It is not common for a 20 year old to duplicate the previous seasons stats after 20 games. That is not common. Two guys are going from 25 points to a 70 point pace. One as a 19 year old and the other as a 20 year old.

Don’t act like it is common. It is not. There are outliers, yes. If we look hard enough, we can find a handful of examples but not this many all on one team in the same season. Usually when you see it you see a guy that is riding shotgun as the third wheel on a line with an elite couple players when stretching out scoring. But these guys are driving their line, not riding shotgun with better players.

Lefebvre and Dubois weren’t even in the league as 17 year olds.

The point still remains. Considering this is not common, is it ”reasonable” to bank on these guys carrying the team out of the blue For a full season when none of them have a track record of doing so? You could even add Purdeller to that list of players. He is on pace to double his stat line. Although, doubling is not all that uncommon. That definitely happens, especially for second year Imports as 19 year olds.

McCoy is also stepping up in a huge way BUT it is more common to see D-Men dramatically increase their point totals as 19 year olds so that wouldn’t really be a good example. That said, cumulatively, a lot of players have increased their production 2x+ in the early going. This has to be a serious discussion point for management. They have to be questioning the possibility of it carrying through an entire season.

You need to consider that these players were in depth roles behind (by far) the best top 7 in the league last season. I’m not surprised by the start of any of those players. A drop in production once Beck is moved is a reasonable expectation. Beck is effectively an OHL line imo. Because he does not lead the league in goals or assists some refuse to acknowledge that he is the most dominant player. (Sapovaliv at times too)

Melee was always a break-out waiting to happen.
Dubois is an ideal 3rd line centre in this league whose point pace is still skewed by one unusal weekend.
Lefebvre is a very good OHL hockey player that could complement any line on any team. He produced last season on rare occasions he was on the top line due to injury.

 

[OMG67]

Not once did I say all of them would and not once did I say they would all have 70 point seasons. I disputed the fact that 19/20 YO players hardly ever have breakout seasons when given bigger roles.

I’m not making an argument that they should be counted on to make the team as a contender because this team is not one in my eyes. Melee is the only one I truly anticipate to make huge strides because he’s shown flashes in the past.

The team needs to sell and count on the coaching staff to develop more later round picks like they did with Konnor Smith and Tucker Robertson.

That’s fair. My bad. I misinterpreted your comments. All I am saying is when we start approaching 3x jump in production, it is rare. To have as many as th ePetes have at this stage of the season and all of those guys at 19 or 20, is rare.