Unpopular opinion: keep everyone, add a couple scoring wingers on the cheap, run it back.
The East stinks. No one is one trade away. The Petes are easily the best team in the conference now and have the goaltending, 4 solid veteran DMen + a rookie who can seemingly handle 25 minutes a night no problem.
They have strength down the middle, particularly two way play down the middle which is so valuable in the playoffs and in Wilson's system. They have all the difficult to acquire pieces on hand already.
This team is so far ahead of where it was at this point last year. Don't be brainwashed by "OHL cycle" or the fans from other teams coming in here wanting to grab players on the cheap. Run it back. If the Petes hadn't won the OHL last year would anyone be suggesting blowing up the first place team in the conference?
I know the thought was this team would struggle and a rebuild this season was the only way to go but that isn't the reality of the situation anymore.
I am aware of the opportunity cost of not trading away some of these players when they are at their peak value, to which I say... I don't care. The next couple years will be rough no matter what. So you're giving up on a team that could go deep in the playoffs again this year for a maybe that is at least three years away (Cameron's 19 year old season likely).
Draft picks are magic beans and there are always players you can move down the line. There is nothing they can/should do that will significantly improve the next couple seasons. We are talking about getting 07/08 guys or draft picks that become players even younger than that.
And then you're hoping that three years from now you can put together a team that maybe, possibly is as good as the one in front of us right now. I used to think that way too, the fantasy GM stuff is fun I guess, if you forget it's a bunch of 16-19 years olds lives you're just casually throwing around but the willingness to look at the team that is #8 in Canada and has shown they have a system that can win in the playoffs and want to blow it up for some sort of marginal improvement three years from now... I just don't get why fans seem so eager for it.
I fully and completely understand where you are coming from. I also agree wholeheartedly that they will suck next year no matter what. It isn’t about that. It is about the duration in which they will suck that is the concern.
The big issue is their ‘05 crop that would be depended on to relieve some of the stress on the picks issue. They have McCue, Page, Faulkner, Velliarus, and Bowen. I don’t think any of those guys are liely to garner any pick returns of consequence. Even the ‘06 group consisting of Partridge, McCallum, Woulds, and Rye are tough to project as desired trade chips. McCallum is likely the biggest trade piece if it comes to it.
All this means that if the Petes push in this year and spend what few picks they have in the 2nd-4th rounds, there isn’t a clear path to regaining those picks. It is possible they could move Melee and Dubois next year but even those two are not likely to garner enough interest to refill four years worth of picks being OA’s. Probably not even half of that.
It is going to be a really tough pill to swallow if the Petes go into the next four drafts as thin as they project. The length of time for the rebound will likley be long. We are talking off cycle long. When we talk about cycle, we usually expect it to be a 4-5 year cycle that culminates in two years of contention, one year of out of playoffs and 1-2 years of a gradual rebuild. It may take the Petes 2 years of bottom standings and 2 more years of building before they even get near the contention window. I am trying to be positive in that assessment too.
If the Petes were to be satisfied with a championship last year and made appropriate deals this year, they wouldn’t be forced to trade Dubois and other OA’s next year. They likely have an extra player or two to help the rebuild as well as some picks to help filter into the roster. It lightens the bottoming out next year as well as lessens the length of time before the Petes can contend again.
By all means, the team can just say screw it and push the chips in and run it back. But what will follow will be painful for en extended period. Additionally, they don‘t have the assets to make much of a push as is. It is very likely there will be one team in the East, maybe two, that see the exact same situation you are describing and push a heck of a lot more chips into the middle and all of a sudden the landscape at the top of the conference changes.
I know even the fans on the Ottawa board struggle with a lot of the same questions so it is definitely not an Easy question, that is for certain.