OMG67
Registered User
- Sep 1, 2013
- 12,079
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I agree wholeheartedly with this 100%.The sample size for both these rosters as currently constructed is zero games. If you really feel the games played at the start of the season have great relevance to how the rest of the season will go, fill your boots. I probably would too if I was a 67s fan - but these aren't the same teams they were in October, so that "sample" becomes irrelevant because the variables have so significantly changed.
We do have leading indicators that can be used to help forecast and make projections. I’ve used mostly the high level stats. Some of the stats nerds would use the advanced stats. I’m not a math guy and don’t want to even suggest that I am an expert in that area.
My whole point in this is that there are too many people that make unsubstantiated statements of fact. When that happens, I sometimes try to challenge it and try to use data to support what I am arguing.
If someone can come at me with leading indicators that I have not considered, I am more than willing to have a discussion. I will admit if I am wrong as well. I stay open minded in that regard. I’ve admitted my ignorance many times in here.
In this instance, I define offence as goals scored from all sources. If someone suggests that the top two lines in Peterborough will score 75% of their 2nd half goals (150 x 0.75 = 112) because that is the way the team is structured then so be it. Give me some reason to believe it. I need to know how those six players will all average 18-20 goals each in the second half. The way the Petes are structured, it isn’t reasonable to assume the remainder of the team outside of the top 2 lines would score much more than 36 goals or one goal per game on average. A top scoring team will score about 300 goals per year or 150 in the second half. That is where the numbers come from.
Then we’d need to assume that neither Ottawa nor North Bay will match that scoring. Both teams in just over a half of a season have done that already. Ottawa added two dynamic offensive players. Is it likely they score less with those two players added? I don’t think that is likely. North Bay was missing a key offensive player for a good portion of the season. They will likely match their first half production.
As much as I like the two lines on Peterborough, they can only do so much. It isn’t realistic to suggest they are clearly the best offensive team. Clearly they have the best top two lines. I’d endorse that for sure.