Salary Cap: Pens Salary Cap Thread: If we score 6 we win, its science!

[Gurglesons]

I'm a little confused about how this relates to what I posted or my question regarding Letang/Dumo having positive xGF% despite being outshot/outchanced.

Because xGF% is based on the distance and placement of shots which is why I believe it is a poor defense metric as it doesn’t account for any passing or other details in regards to a scoring chance.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Because xGF% is based on the distance and placement of shots which is why I believe it is a poor defense metric as it doesn’t account for any passing or other details in regards to a scoring chance.

I didn't say that it is? In fact I even said the issue with xGF% with regards to measuring how good a player or players are playing defensively is it gets skewed by including how that player or players are performing offensively as well. Someone who has been offensively dominant can have a good xGF% despite actually performing mediocre defensively.

My secondary point about the Letang/Dumo pairing was just that they're the only pairing that's getting outshot/outchanced so there's merit to that pairing struggling defensively. Our other two pairings are on the positive side of the ledger when it comes to shots/chances for.

And my final point (which was separate from the above two) was xGF% seems to be heavily reliant on the HDCF% category more than anything else because it's the only explanation for why Letang would have a positive xGF% when all his other metrics (other than HDCF%) are poor so far.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I didn't say that it is? In fact I even said the issue with xGF% with regards to measuring how good a player or players are playing defensively is it gets skewed by including how that player or players are performing offensively as well. Someone who has been offensively dominant can have a good xGF% despite actually performing mediocre defensively.

My secondary point about the Letang/Dumo pairing was just that they're the only pairing that's getting outshot/outchanced so there's merit to that pairing struggling defensively. Our other two pairings are on the positive side of the ledger when it comes to shots/chances for.

And my final point (which was separate from the above two) was xGF% seems to be heavily reliant on the HDCF% category more than anything else because it's the only explanation for why Letang would have a positive xGF% when all his other metrics (other than HDCF%) are poor so far.

Well yeah, but not every CA is made equally. There are flaws with xGF%, but xGF% is just a function of CF/CA with a weight based on probability of a goal being scored from a shot of that speed/location. That's why Letang's xGF numbers are decent/solid despite him being outshot, not every CA counts for the same when it comes to xGF.

xGF% is heavily a function of HDCF% because HDCF% are the shots that are most likely to be goals. In terms of HDCA, all of Petry, Letang, Dumoulin and Rutta are fairly close together, while POJ is noticeably worse and Pettersson is noticeably better. Letang and Dumoulin aren't giving up a ton of very high danger chances, at least not any more than any of their other defensemen.

 

[JTG]

Advanced stats need context. We have come full circle.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You yourself were saying you didn't trust/care about the analytics that suggested Petry played a good deal worse than Pettersson the other night, no?

Shot location analytics are a blunt instrument. Over lots of games, the weirdnesses generally equal out. Over small samples, where that's less true, I'm not sure they should be more than signs to watch shifts again, or a sign of whether the scoreboard is being flattering or not (which generally we all know just from watching anyway).

No, I meant that I'm not going to say Petry had a bad game because he had 1 identifiable shift that skews data for how he personally did.

You're right that they're blunt instruments, and need to be taken into account with context. In that case, Pettersson-Petry dominating for an entire game and then Petry getting stuck out with like Rutta for a 0 CF-6 CA shift doesn't really seem like Petry had a "bad" game. The analytics may say that Petry wasn't great, but if you can identify one shift where Petry just got hammered and then he was great the rest of the game, would you really call that a "bad game"?

It comes back down to you need to take analytics into account with actually watching the game. From watching the games, I don't think Dumoulin-Letang has been bad at all outside of getting absolutely dummied against Edmonton.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Numbers don’t exist.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

I’m glad people were all hyped with the illusion of Glass Zucker playing in a contract year.

Glass Zucker is confirmed out tonight, we are only 6 games in.

This team will need a scoring line LW at the deadline, or will see another first round exit when the playoffs roll around.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I’m glad people were all hyped with the illusion of Glass Zucker playing in a contract year.

Glass Zucker is confirmed out tonight, we are only 6 games in.

This team will need a scoring line LW at the deadline, or will see another first round exit when the playoffs roll around.

They'll likely have another 1st round exit when the playoffs roll around regardless of what they do at the deadline.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

@IcedCapp

What was that regarding this board not living in reality about Malkin not having good wingers?

Malkin is playing with two bottom 6ers tonight, while Crosby gets both top 6 wingers.

They'll likely have another 1st round exit when the playoffs roll around regardless of what they do at the deadline.

Their chances go up if they have home ice, and pull off another Rakell type trade at the deadline.

Though I agree, chances aren’t great with Sully at the helm either way.

 

[66-30-33]

They'll likely have another 1st round exit when the playoffs roll around regardless of what they do at the deadline.

That's what will happen for the remainder of the teams core. It will reach like 7 years of 1st round exits, but hey playoff money I guess.

 

[Gurglesons]

I’m glad people were all hyped with the illusion of Glass Zucker playing in a contract year.

Glass Zucker is confirmed out tonight, we are only 6 games in.

This team will need a scoring line LW at the deadline, or will see another first round exit when the playoffs roll around.

Really sucks that we are still getting bit by JR three season last later..

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

"A healthy Jason Zucker is our trade deadline acquisition. We like the make up of our team, we have a really tight knit room here, and feel like we have as good a shot as anyone."

 

[HandshakeLine]

Really sucks that we are still getting bit by JR three season last later..

Also sucks that someone convinced him to take his medication in Vancouver and he's not making any more stupid trades with us for our mediocre trash.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Also sucks that someone convinced him to take his medication in Vancouver and he's not making any more stupid trades with us for our mediocre trash.

I am pretty skeptical that JR would even want to deal with the Pens and take the chance of improving the team that so boldly "disrespected" him.

I know a buncha guys connected the Pens and Canucks in stuff around Marino and Petts and Boeser and Garland but I gotta question whether that was just media guys kicking around ideas they thought might make sense more so than any actual stuff happening behind the scenes.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I am incredibly skeptical of any rumor-based reporting.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

"A healthy Jason Zucker is our trade deadline acquisition. We like the make up of our team, we have a really tight knit room here, and feel like we have as good a shot as anyone."

“At this time (TDL), we are hopeful that by the time the playoffs start, he will have recovered from the next injury he will likely sustain in the coming weeks.”

 

[molon labe]

Numbers don’t exist.

In context to anything positive regarding Petry so far, I'd agree.

He's been my least favorite Pens player since Jack Johnson. Holy smokes does he suck right now. All the downsides of a bad Letang with none of the upside.

In fact, much like Johnson you can count on the announcers to praise a meaningless check at the blue line for minutes on end then ignore just how bad he is at everything else.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Petry is hilarious. Absolutely sucks in Canada, looks rock solid in the U.S.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I do wonder what games people are watching if they make statements like "Petry is my least favorite defenseman since Johnson".

He has 4 points in 7 games, is a positive player (on a D pair that is performing great right now), is playing over 20 minutes a night, is throwing a bunch of hits and blocking shots....what exactly is he doing wrong? He's taken too many penalties, but that's really about it. What should he be doing that he's not doing right now?

Also it's kinda funny to say Petry is "all of the downsides of Letang without any of the upside" while Letang is a minus player this year, has worse analytics and isn't producing more than Petry. If Petry sucks, what does that say about Letang? He's been worse by pretty much every statistical measure you can look at.

 

[molon labe]

I do wonder what games people are watching if they make statements like "Petry is my least favorite defenseman since Johnson".

He has 4 points in 7 games, is a positive player (on a D pair that is performing great right now), is playing over 20 minutes a night, is throwing a bunch of hits and blocking shots....what exactly is he doing wrong? He's taken too many penalties, but that's really about it. What should he be doing that he's not doing right now?

I'm the one who said it.. Why are you being ambiguous here?

I've stated my reasons. Being physical is what a cheap player like Rutta should be praised for - not Petry.

Praising D men only by points is silly. We are freaking loaded with offensive talent - any living corpse we stick out on the blue line is GOING to get points.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm the one who said it.. Why are you being ambiguous here?

I've stated my reasons. Being physical is what a cheap player like Rutta should be praised for - not Petry.

Praising D men only by points is silly. We are freaking loaded with offensive talent - any living corpse we stick out on the blue line is GOING to get points.

If Petry sucks, what does that say about Letang? He's been worse by pretty much every statistical measure you can look at.

The results with Petry are good to great across the board. Saying he sucks with that is just you making up a fantasy or nitpicking issues that aren't having a major negative impact on his overall results.

 

[molon labe]

If Petry sucks, what does that say about Letang? He's been worse by pretty much every statistical measure you can look at.

Grizzly Adams DID have a beard....

What are you getting at?

 

[Pancakes]

Watching this team try to navigate through the opponent's trap lately is giving me bad flash backs of the Dan Bylsma years. Defensemen firing shit passes that get picked off and when they do actually make one tape to tape the forward immediately turns it over anyways

 

[Gurglesons]

In context to anything positive regarding Petry so far, I'd agree.

He's been my least favorite Pens player since Jack Johnson. Holy smokes does he suck right now. All the downsides of a bad Letang with none of the upside.

In fact, much like Johnson you can count on the announcers to praise a meaningless check at the blue line for minutes on end then ignore just how bad he is at everything else.

Absolutely bizarre analysis. Petts and Petry have without question been our best D pairing.

 

[Invalid cuz QoC]

I'm the one who said it.. Why are you being ambiguous here?

I've stated my reasons. Being physical is what a cheap player like Rutta should be praised for - not Petry.

Praising D men only by points is silly. We are freaking loaded with offensive talent - any living corpse we stick out on the blue line is GOING to get points.

Dumo? I don’t even need to check how many points he gets.