Salary Cap: Pens Salary Cap Thread: If we score 6 we win, its science!

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All I want for Xmas

We'd have the best 3rd line in the NHL easily.

We dodged a bullet with all the talk about us trading for JT Miller, it seems. The more you see what's going on in Vancouver and the more he opens his mouth, it looks like he's just a complete D-bag that would probably upset locker room balance more than his play would help on the ice.

So he's going to be an Oiler?

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Pretty interesting topic. Maybe the Pens would learn something?

Principles of the NHL's best powerplay

Workshop 81: You won't have access to the Edmonton Oilers' talent pool, but here's how to make the most of the player you do have

jhanhky.substack.com

 

[Flying Dego]

Feel bad for Tyler Smith. He doesn't belong in Wilkes.

I feel odd about our left side.

Dumo- he's struggling. His feet are just not what they were prior to the injuries and it hinders what makes him successful.

The issue becomes we have no true 1st pairing guy to take his spot BUT Petts has been quite good as a whole this year. I still don't know how he'd hold up with top line minutes though..

POJ has been stellar for me. He has played really well these games in both ends. Smith also deserves to be up and playing.

I really want the following to work. I just don't know...

Petts-Letang
POJ-Petry
Smith-Rutta

 

[Flying Dego]

Side note:

If anyone would have told me that Jan "the man" Rutta would've been by far and away our best all around D to start the year I'd have scoffed.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Petts-Letang
POJ-Petry
Smith-Rutta

I'd be open to trying it. Hard to be much worse than our 1st pairing right now.

I'd also like to see Dumo on the 3rd pair for a few games to see how him and Letang respond.

 

[Flying Dego]

I'd be open to trying it. Hard to be much worse than our 1st pairing right now.

I'd also like to see Dumo on the 3rd pair for a few games to see how him and Letang respond.

They need split. Too many errors by them...or we flip the minutes and let POJ-Rutta take the matchups lol

 

[Empoleon8771]

They absolutely should not be shuffling the D to a level that breaks up Pettersson-Petry. It’s been one of the best pairs in hockey this year.

They’re not going to scratch Dumoulin, but if he was out, you just bump POJ to the top pair and Smith to the 3rd pair.

 

[Flying Dego]

They absolutely should not be shuffling the D to a level that breaks up Pettersson-Petry. It’s been one of the best pairs in hockey this year.

They’re not going to scratch Dumoulin, but if he was out, you just bump POJ to the top pair and Smith to the 3rd pair.

It's kinda funny that our 2/3 pairings have been excellent and our top pairing a tire fire.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It's kinda funny that our 2/3 pairings have been excellent and our top pairing a tire fire.

That's what happens when your RD on that top pairing is playing Jekyll & Hyde hockey and your LD on that top pairing is well beyond his best-before date as a defensive rock.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's kinda funny that our 2/3 pairings have been excellent and our top pairing a tire fire.

The top pair hasn’t been a tire fire. They were terrible last night but they’ve been good on the year overall.

All 3 of their D pairs have been solid on the year:

Dumoulin-Letang: 55.56% GF% and 56.53% xGF% in 83 minutes
Pettersson-Petry: 62.5% GF% and 61.57% xGF% in 76 minutes
Joseph-Rutta: 100% GF% and 50.02% xGF% in 58 minutes

The 1st and 2nd pair both have GF and xGF totals lined up pretty well, while the 3rd pair is riding a PDO high right now. Over a full season, this would correspond to Dumoulin-Letang being a +14 in terms of goal differential over a full year. Hardly something that seems like a tire fire.

They were on the ice for 3 goals against yesterday and got absolutely slaughtered analytically, but they were destroying teams before last night. Last night seems more like a regression to the mean than a trend.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The top pair hasn’t been a tire fire. They were terrible last night but they’ve been good on the year overall.

All 3 of their D pairs have been solid on the year:

Dumoulin-Letang: 55.56% GF% and 56.53% xGF% in 83 minutes
Pettersson-Petry: 62.5% GF% and 61.57% xGF% in 76 minutes
Joseph-Rutta: 100% GF% and 50.02% xGF% in 58 minutes

The 1st and 2nd pair both have GF and xGF totals lined up pretty well, while the 3rd pair is riding a PDO high right now. Over a full season, this would correspond to Dumoulin-Letang being a +14 in terms of goal differential over a full year. Hardly something that seems like a tire fire.

They were on the ice for 3 goals against yesterday and got absolutely slaughtered analytically, but they were destroying teams before last night. Last night seems more like a regression to the mean than a trend.

I'm curious how that top pairing fairs just in terms of the defensive side of things compared to other top pairings around the league.

Problem with the "GF" portion of GF% and xGF% is it includes the offensive side of things. And so far the Pens have been scoring a tonne which might be propping up Dumo/Letang's overall % because when they're on the ice they're outscoring their defensive issues. Kind of like if a pairing is on the ice for 5 goals for every night and 4 goals against, their overall GF% is going to be positive. But that doesn't mean they're playing good D giving up 4 goals every night.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The top pair hasn’t been a tire fire. They were terrible last night but they’ve been good on the year overall.

All 3 of their D pairs have been solid on the year:

Dumoulin-Letang: 55.56% GF% and 56.53% xGF% in 83 minutes
Pettersson-Petry: 62.5% GF% and 61.57% xGF% in 76 minutes
Joseph-Rutta: 100% GF% and 50.02% xGF% in 58 minutes

The 1st and 2nd pair both have GF and xGF totals lined up pretty well, while the 3rd pair is riding a PDO high right now. Over a full season, this would correspond to Dumoulin-Letang being a +14 in terms of goal differential over a full year. Hardly something that seems like a tire fire.

They were on the ice for 3 goals against yesterday and got absolutely slaughtered analytically, but they were destroying teams before last night. Last night seems more like a regression to the mean than a trend.

Actually that's exactly what's happening. According to NST, that pairing at 5on5 is being heavily outshot/outchanced. They're the only pairing that's a "minus" in stuff like SF% and SCF%.

On a separate note, I don't understand how Letang has a xGF% of 56% when he's being outshot/outchanced in every category except HDCF/HDCA. I'm assuming xGF is heavily, heavily influenced by that one stat?

 

[Gurglesons]

Actually that's exactly what's happening. According to NST, that pairing at 5on5 is being heavily outshot/outchanced. They're the only pairing that's a "minus" in stuff like SF% and SCF%.

On a separate note, I don't understand how Letang has a xGF% of 56% when he's being outshot/outchanced in every category except HDCF/HDCA. I'm assuming xGF is heavily, heavily influenced by that one stat?

Yes, we’re being outshot most games but we are dictating the play out of the center of the ice.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

IMO the best reaction would be no personnel changes and an honest 60 minute complete win vs Calgary. Show last night was an anomaly.

MacKinnon talked about how sometimes you gotta chill out and realize that your bad nights are just bad nights and they’ll happen. Same way you can get lucky and catch a team on a bad night. Take nothing from either. Can’t get too high or low.

Advanced stats aren’t meant to be used to draw conclusions from single game or even 6 game samples IMO.

 

[Peat]

IMO the best reaction would be no personnel changes and an honest 60 minute complete win vs Calgary. Show last night was an anomaly.

MacKinnon talked about how sometimes you gotta chill out and realize that your bad nights are just bad nights and they’ll happen. Same way you can get lucky and catch a team on a bad night. Take nothing from either. Can’t get too high or low.

Advanced stats aren’t meant to be used to draw conclusions from single game or even 6 game samples IMO.

Hush with your logic.

My only thing is in the second period before I turned it off, I didn't see us being out-competed, I saw the other team dictating the pace of game and the Pens chasing hard but not being able to get to pucks first before the other team was dictating things. I wish this team had a switch installed for such moments for "stop chasing, start turtling and dumping until you can get a few good forechecks in and change the flow".

 

[Empoleon8771]

IMO the best reaction would be no personnel changes and an honest 60 minute complete win vs Calgary. Show last night was an anomaly.

MacKinnon talked about how sometimes you gotta chill out and realize that your bad nights are just bad nights and they’ll happen. Same way you can get lucky and catch a team on a bad night. Take nothing from either. Can’t get too high or low.

Advanced stats aren’t meant to be used to draw conclusions from single game or even 6 game samples IMO.

Who is doing this?

I also think you can absolutely use analytics in small sample sizes to judge how players are performing over that sample. Letang and Dumoulin got slaughtered last night analytically and on the scoreboard, why can’t you use their awful results to say they were bad?

If someone was saying that Pettersson-Petry is one of the best pairs in hockey because they have great analytics so far, that would be excessive. But I don’t see anything wrong with people using analytics to say how a player/line performed in a game.

 

[Peat]

Who is doing this?

I also think you can absolutely use analytics in small sample sizes to judge how players are performing over that sample. Letang and Dumoulin got slaughtered last night analytically and on the scoreboard, why can’t you use their awful results to say they were bad?

If someone was saying that Pettersson-Petry is one of the best pairs in hockey because they have great analytics so far, that would be excessive. But I don’t see anything wrong with people using analytics to say how a player/line performed in a game.

You yourself were saying you didn't trust/care about the analytics that suggested Petry played a good deal worse than Pettersson the other night, no?

Shot location analytics are a blunt instrument. Over lots of games, the weirdnesses generally equal out. Over small samples, where that's less true, I'm not sure they should be more than signs to watch shifts again, or a sign of whether the scoreboard is being flattering or not (which generally we all know just from watching anyway).

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Who is doing this?

I also think you can absolutely use analytics in small sample sizes to judge how players are performing over that sample. Letang and Dumoulin got slaughtered last night analytically and on the scoreboard, why can’t you use their awful results to say they were bad?

If someone was saying that Pettersson-Petry is one of the best pairs in hockey because they have great analytics so far, that would be excessive. But I don’t see anything wrong with people using analytics to say how a player/line performed in a game.

My understanding of advanced stats is that their effectiveness/accuracy moves with the amount of data feeding them, much like other forms of statistical modeling.

Are they gassed off an icing, is 40% XG really that bad vs McDavid… etc etc. what’s driving the xG? Was it a funky bounce? Was it their play? Was it their centerman losing his battle? Forwards not supporting the puck? Their opponent making a great play? Does a glorious shot off the post count?

Can be argued for days. Obviously a night like last game is more black and white and Dumo-Tang sucked. But you don’t even need stats to know that lol

Overall I think it’s just hard to use models (that are built to evaluate and drive big conclusions) to draw little conclusions for like 15 min of data. Much better to let big samples iron out the oddities and drill into the trend at hand.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Hush with your logic.

My only thing is in the second period before I turned it off, I didn't see us being out-competed, I saw the other team dictating the pace of game and the Pens chasing hard but not being able to get to pucks first before the other team was dictating things. I wish this team had a switch installed for such moments for "stop chasing, start turtling and dumping until you can get a few good forechecks in and change the flow".

Yeah which they did do well vs LA.

I think that will be the thing to watch versus their stiffer competition. Good teams are going to bully you at times, but will you allow it to get out of control?

My biggest negative takeaway early though is special teams. Backbreaking vs Rangers in the postseason and continues to be an issue.

So far in both losses, PP1 didn’t bury the other team when it had a shot to and lost the team momentum. Montreal with 10 min left they looked pathetic and then took a penalty. Last night couldn’t convert once on a 4 minute. Game began to tilt after that. And the PK hasn’t exactly gotten timely stops either.

 

[Peat]

I think that will be the thing to watch versus their stiffer competition. Good teams are going to bully you at times, but will you allow it to get out of control?

If there is one criticism of this team and its coaching over the past few years that I buy into and worry about, it's that this team lets things get out of control too often and it costs them too much. It's why getting Rutta and Petry was a good thing in my book, but it seems like that alone mightn't be enough.

 

[Gurglesons]

If there is one criticism of this team and its coaching over the past few years that I buy into and worry about, it's that this team lets things get out of control too often and it costs them too much. It's why getting Rutta and Petry was a good thing in my book, but it seems like that alone mightn't be enough.

That’s why I keep pushing for us to acquire a top nine forward that can be Rutta up front.

Kapanen is who I think internally they hope can take that mantle.

 

[Peat]

That’s why I keep pushing for us to acquire a top nine forward that can be Rutta up front.

Kapanen is who I think internally they hope can take that mantle.

Can't like this post enough.

If I am management, I've got Kapanen and Heinen in my office with video of guys like Coleman, Nuke, Lehkonen, and so on. I'd compare the raw skillets, and I'd compare the contracts, and I'd ask them if they are want the contracts the other guys have and point out what they have to do to get them. Hard-nosed, disciplined, aggressive, no cheat play. I don't see why they can't. They bring it or the team finds someone else.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

IMO the best reaction would be no personnel changes and an honest 60 minute complete win vs Calgary. Show last night was an anomaly.

MacKinnon talked about how sometimes you gotta chill out and realize that your bad nights are just bad nights and they’ll happen. Same way you can get lucky and catch a team on a bad night. Take nothing from either. Can’t get too high or low.

Advanced stats aren’t meant to be used to draw conclusions from single game or even 6 game samples IMO.

But then posters would have to actually watch and evaluate the game

 

[vodeni]

Who is doing this?

I also think you can absolutely use analytics in small sample sizes to judge how players are performing over that sample. Letang and Dumoulin got slaughtered last night analytically and on the scoreboard, why can’t you use their awful results to say they were bad?

If someone was saying that Pettersson-Petry is one of the best pairs in hockey because they have great analytics so far, that would be excessive. But I don’t see anything wrong with people using analytics to say how a player/line performed in a game.

its a small sample size, but they still look OK cause they play well first two games, especially against Tampa, after that Letang and Dumo have been our worst dman in the last 4 games. I don't think Letang had these kind of numbers in his career for a 4-game stretch. What worries me is that two of the worst games are against fast good forechecking teams MTL and EDM. this also does not show a totally awful PP performance by Tanger

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Yes, we’re being outshot most games but we are dictating the play out of the center of the ice.

I'm a little confused about how this relates to what I posted or my question regarding Letang/Dumo having positive xGF% despite being outshot/outchanced.