Salary Cap: Pens Salary Cap Thread: If we score 6 we win, its science!

[Empoleon8771]

Is it gonna jump that much? I'd be shocked.

Bettman came out and said the cap will increase to $86.5 million if the players paid off their escrow this year, which seems likely.

I'm a lot more concerned with retaining Guentzel than I am with retaining Jarry right now. I think Guentzel's track record has him at a $9+ million AAV player. He's going to get a Jeff Skinner contract from someone if he hits UFA.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I think they can get Jarry for 6M or maybe under if they go 6+ years on it, just because of Letang and Malkin’s cap hits

 

[Pens x]

I mean Cal Peterson who based on reading the Kings board is pretty hated over there is making 5 million AAV. His stats as a starter are worse than Jarrys. I think the 6.3-6.8 range is where Jarry will land

Peterson’s limited playoff numbers make Jarry’s playoff numbers look hall of fame worthy.

It seems like a huge gamble to re-sign Jarry to a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract until he proves he isn’t a mental midget come playoff time.

 

[Andy99]

I think they can get Jarry for 6M or maybe under if they go 6+ years on it, just because of Letang and Malkin’s cap hits

Almost everyone signing with the Pens gets a six-year term…apparently that’s the new rule…it’s god awful…what happened to signing goalies for 3-4 year terms lol

 

[ChaosAgent]

Bettman came out and said the cap will increase to $86.5 million if the players paid off their escrow this year, which seems likely.

I'm a lot more concerned with retaining Guentzel than I am with retaining Jarry right now. I think Guentzel's track record has him at a $9+ million AAV player. He's going to get a Jeff Skinner contract from someone if he hits UFA.

I'd pay Jake up to 12% of the cap, whatever it is.

$9M isn't really a big deal in my books for a star player.

 

[Gurglesons]

JT Miller sure blowing chunks since signing that big deal. Good ol’ Rutherford special

 

[Peat]

I think we also need to remind ourselves that we were bracing for Malkin to get $8M, Letang to get $9M, and Rust to get $7M.

Whatever 'reports' say that Jarry is asking for doesn't mean that's what he's going to get. There's no reason for either side to hurry into anything. There's a whole season ahead of us.

On the one hand, this is very true.

On the other, a lot of things were going the front office's way last season, including a very disappointing looking UFA period for free agents. If Jarry's more willing to leave Pittsburgh than them, he's got a lot more leverage.

Lot of time to go tho.

Haha... nah. I love you guys but nah. Goaltending is a very team-oriented and dependent position. Like it or not. Of course there are better and worse goaltenders out there but by and large it's just one big homogenized clump. Ya'll don't even have to take my word for it... ask GMs and what they choose to pay (or more appropriately NOT pay) "top" players in that position. If you guys think that's just weird coincidence then I dunno.

I like Jarry and want him to stay. But not as the second highest paid player on the team. As a goaltender. You guys lecture me sometimes about the prudence of certain decisions I'D love to see and fair enough. But this is my "hol up this is a dumb idea" hill to die on, I guess.

See, I don't agree with this. The results might look similar, but the ability to carry and sustain workload isn't. I think there's maybe 20 guys in the NHL who can. There's a bunch of players who can pop hot, who might be able to sustain if they get the chance... they mostly can't. For me it's like how you can get stats showing Jared McCann and Malkin were just as productive but they aren't the same player. It's a little scary saying Jarry's definitely a sustainer before he's shown it in the playoffs, but I think he's absolutely shown it regular season so he's getting that money from someone.

As for GMs' willingness to pay - most of the top goalies haven't been in a position to wring money out of their GM recently. Vasilevskiy is the only one who has and he's the joint top player on his team. Shesterkin got his current contract after 48 games, Sorokin after 29. Hellebuyck is on the 5th season of his contract, he was the second highest paid Jet when he signed. I feel like Markstrom only truly gained his rep as a Flame, was still the 5th highest paid player on the team.

And given how the cap is about to shoot up, realistically guys signing contracts now in sight of it are going to shoot past previously established standards. If Guentzel isn't the highest paid player on the team when he re-signs, it's because he doesn't want to be. Look at all those RFAs on other teams - Tage Thompson, Kyrou and Thomas at the Blues, Norris and Stutzle - who'd be the second highest paid player here next season after one good season. Why shouldn't goalies be part of that too? If Nick Suzuki can get 7m, why can't Jarry?

I'm a lot more concerned with retaining Guentzel than I am with retaining Jarry right now. I think Guentzel's track record has him at a $9+ million AAV player. He's going to get a Jeff Skinner contract from someone if he hits UFA.

Sure, no worries, sign him to that now.

 

[Peat]

Almost everyone signing with the Pens gets a six-year term…apparently that’s the new rule…it’s god awful…what happened to signing goalies for 3-4 year terms lol

Flower got 7 years up until he was 30. Crawford got 6 through his prime, Quick got 12, Luongo got 12. Binnington got 6, Markstrom and Hellebuyck got 6, Gibson got 8,..

I'm not sure it was ever a thing once goalies got established.

 

[molon labe]

Bettman came out and said the cap will increase to $86.5 million if the players paid off their escrow this year, which seems likely.

I'm a lot more concerned with retaining Guentzel than I am with retaining Jarry right now. I think Guentzel's track record has him at a $9+ million AAV player. He's going to get a Jeff Skinner contract from someone if he hits UFA.

Gonna have to hope Guentz' admiration for Sid and basically making the highlight reel for each milestone of his career here-on-out outweighs his desire to make another 1-2M a year / 7-14M elsewhere. Like, it's gotta be pretty cool for Mike Evans to cement his place in history by just catching Brady passes each Sunday.

To play devil's advocate to him... I might be pushing a young C somewhere else rather than the aging core of the Pens.

Then again, not sure we don't just throw the sink at him. Rising cap - and the kid is beloved by the city. Not exactly a performer who doesn't sell jerseys and put fans in the stands. Just an obvious step down from the top 3.

 

[Darren McCord]

Bettman came out and said the cap will increase to $86.5 million if the players paid off their escrow this year, which seems likely.

I'm a lot more concerned with retaining Guentzel than I am with retaining Jarry right now. I think Guentzel's track record has him at a $9+ million AAV player. He's going to get a Jeff Skinner contract from someone if he hits UFA.

Jake is a 9mill dollar player tho. He will be 30 at the start of that contract, so you still have 4 more years of top play.

Skinners contract in todays market would be like 10.5

Jake anywhere around 9 is fine. The cap could have gone up by 8mill by the time he signs.

If TJ finishes this year again as a top 10 goalie, his age and with a poor market...he'll have suitors and we will either be forces to pay him an uncomfortable amount or put our hopes into a much lesser known commodity.


That's the issue. Supply and demand. Jarry on another good year will command term with 7M...

So we as a team must consider who can replace him? We gonna run one of our unknown AHL guys with CDS? Or pick up a worse quality cheaper tender in FA? It'll be rough any way you slice it.

If TJ finishes top 10 then we are a cup contender and you pay him. Who cares past the next few years. If TJ shows up in the playoffs then this team has a legit chance and you pay for that.

 

[DearDiary]

Rust took a big discount to resign, even though he hadn't made much money up to that point. I hope Guentzal does the same

 

[SEALBound]

Rust took a big discount to resign, even though he hadn't made much money up to that point. I hope Guentzal does the same

I would hope Jake is willing to sign for about $7.5mil or $8mil. I think that would be appropriate and fair for both sides. Term is a question. Would like to see 5yrs but given Malkin, Letang, Rust, and Rakell, I can see them going 6-7.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm fine if the Pens negotiate, but Jake is an elite player and worth something like 10AAV * 5 years in an inflationary environment. I'm happy that Hextall consistently finds ways to shave a million here or there but I'd rather pay market value for stars than role players

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Bettman came out and said the cap will increase to $86.5 million if the players paid off their escrow this year, which seems likely.

I'm a lot more concerned with retaining Guentzel than I am with retaining Jarry right now. I think Guentzel's track record has him at a $9+ million AAV player. He's going to get a Jeff Skinner contract from someone if he hits UFA.

I'd be fine with giving Guentzel his current contract plus Carter's money.

I'd also be fine with giving Jarry $7M if it really came down to that, but I don't think it will. I think we can get him between $5M and $6M.

 

[Flying Dego]

Jake is a weird one...I dunno maybe you give him 8 years and it brings his cap down just a bit?

8x8?

 

[Turin]

Gonna echo the sentiment that thank God, so far, Hextall dealt Marino for a cheap young player and a pick and not somebody like Boeser.

 

[chethejet]

Jarry will be signed as Hextall knows the value of a top goalie. Now if he sucks in the playoffs, that may change the narrative. But I think 6 million 5 years is about the number here. Keep in mind the Pens have a number of younger goalies in the system who were Jarry caliber at that stage. Jake is at 6 for the next two years. Pens really only have Jarry and Jake as bigger ticket contracts. Dumo is gone and Zucker in all likely hood is gone or extended at a lower AAV. If the cap is 86.5 next year, Pens have 23 million to work some magic.

 

[Flying Dego]

Jarry will be signed as Hextall knows the value of a top goalie. Now if he sucks in the playoffs, that may change the narrative. But I think 6 million 5 years is about the number here. Keep in mind the Pens have a number of younger goalies in the system who were Jarry caliber at that stage. Jake is at 6 for the next two years. Pens really only have Jarry and Jake as bigger ticket contracts. Dumo is gone and Zucker in all likely hood is gone or extended at a lower AAV. If the cap is 86.5 next year, Pens have 23 million to work some magic.

If Zucker has a healthy season and pots 40-50 points he ain't taking less than 5...likely will go to FA and make it.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Man, I wish I had the same confidence you guys did in proclaiming Zucker and Dumo are for sure gone.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If Zucker has a healthy season and pots 40-50 points he ain't taking less than 5...likely will go to FA and make it.

Yeah if Rakell is getting $5 million after getting 41 points in 70 games, Zucker's going to be getting the same if he has as strong of a year as he's looking like he'll have. It's why I'd try to extend him for less right now.

Jake is a 9mill dollar player tho. He will be 30 at the start of that contract, so you still have 4 more years of top play.

Skinners contract in todays market would be like 10.5

Jake anywhere around 9 is fine. The cap could have gone up by 8mill by the time he signs.

Yeah, I'm not totally willing to believe this.

I am not willing to proclaim right now that Guentzel will definitely be good through his age 34 season.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think Jake's best attribute is his hockey IQ, so I think he'll probably age gracefully. It's up to whether his body can handle the punishment.

Try and keep his contract as palatable as possible when it comes to a potential situation where you're gonna move him down the road to accelerate the rebuild. Odds are he's gonna be around for much longer than anybody else in the core, so there will probably be a few seasons where he's by himself on an island. If he's still any good when that time comes, hopefully you're not too handcuffed by a super restrictive NTC or a sky high AAV and you can get something of value for him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think Jake's best attribute is his hockey IQ, so I think he'll probably age gracefully. It's up to whether his body can handle the punishment.

Try and keep his contract as palatable as possible when it comes to a potential situation where you're gonna move him down the road to accelerate the rebuild. Odds are he's gonna be around for much longer than anybody else in the core, so there will probably be a few seasons where he's by himself on an island. If he's still any good when that time comes, hopefully you're not too handcuffed by a super restrictive NTC or a sky high AAV and you can get something of value for him.

I think there are definitely comparables to Guentzel out there that have held up to that age, I think Marchand is a great example of that. I just think there are way more guys who fall off at that point.

Look at Giroux, he's still a very good player but he was clearly worse in his age 32-34 seasons than he was in his 30 and 31 year old years. If Guentzel ages like Giroux did, I don't think it would be terrible, but Giroux hasn't been exactly lights out over that window:

Age 30: 102 points in 82 games
Age 31: 85 points in 82 games
Age 32: 53 points in 69 games
Age 33: 43 points in 54 games
Age 34: 65 points in 75 games

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think there are definitely comparables to Guentzel out there that have held up to that age, I think Marchand is a great example of that. I just think there are way more guys who fall off at that point.

Look at Giroux, he's still a very good player but he was clearly worse in his age 32-34 seasons than he was in his 30 and 31 year old years.

Yeah, I just mean that Jake leans on his smarts way more than any physical attributes like speed, physicality or his shot. Guys never really lose their hands or their smarts like other traits. I don't think he'll be a PPG guy forever, particularly as Sid and Geno slow down. I just think (hope) he'll be a good enough player to get something for down the line when the wheels fall off the wagon entirely in Pittsburgh.

 

[canadianguy77]

I know Sid signed his contact when Jake was still an infant, but I have my doubts that guy is going to be comfortable signing a deal where he makes more money than the captain.

 

[DearDiary]

I know Sid signed his contact when Jake was still an infant, but I have my doubts that guy is going to be comfortable signing a deal where he makes more money than the captain.

Crosby makes $3 mill this season and until the end of his contract