Salary Cap: Pens Salary Cap Thread: If we score 6 we win, its science!

[SEALBound]

When they broached contract terms with Jarry’s agent, he reportedly was asking closer to $7M per….I don’t remember where I heard that but apparently early contract talks were not going to get him as cheaply as the FO believed or we wanted here

Easy, play like a $7mil goalie for us this season...we reep the rewards...then we walk away.

Outside of a select few, there aren't many $5mil+ goalies in the league. We've all seen how bad it can get really, really quick. If it's $7mil, it better be a 2yr deal. Maybe 3. I would be opting for a $5.5x4yr, maybe even a $6mil x 4yr if he FINALLY comes through in the playoffs.

 

[Flying Dego]

Jarry is in a position to get f***ing paid. He and Nedeljkovic are the only UFA goalies with starting experience under the age of 30 and the only other one under 35 is Andersen.

If TJ finishes this year again as a top 10 goalie, his age and with a poor market...he'll have suitors and we will either be forces to pay him an uncomfortable amount or put our hopes into a much lesser known commodity.

Easy, play like a $7mil goalie for us this season...we reep the rewards...then we walk away.

Outside of a select few, there aren't many $5mil+ goalies in the league. We've all seen how bad it can get really, really quick. If it's $7mil, it better be a 2yr deal. Maybe 3. I would be opting for a $5.5x4yr, maybe even a $6mil x 4yr if he FINALLY comes through in the playoffs.

That's the issue. Supply and demand. Jarry on another good year will command term with 7M...

So we as a team must consider who can replace him? We gonna run one of our unknown AHL guys with CDS? Or pick up a worse quality cheaper tender in FA? It'll be rough any way you slice it.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

If the cap goes up $4M (to $86.5M) I guess I'd be okay with giving Jarry a $6.5M cap hit. That's 7.5% of the cap and is lower than Gibson's just over 8%.

 

[Flying Dego]

If the cap goes up $4M (to $86.5M) I guess I'd be okay with giving Jarry a $6.5M cap hit. That's 7.5% of the cap and is lower than Gibson's just over 8%.

Is it gonna jump that much? I'd be shocked.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Is it gonna jump that much? I'd be shocked.

I think there was one report that said it could.

Regardless, I do think that 7.5% is the highest I go for Jarry. Though we may not have a choice.

 

[Peat]

Is it gonna jump that much? I'd be shocked.

Bettman said that's what it could do if player escrow is paid off by the end of the season, which it could be.

In any case, I'm with you. I don't want to throw money at Jarry, but I want to deal with finding a new goalie even less. It's the same as where I was with Murray, until he crapped that bed that season and Jarry waltzed in to take his spot. Well, there's no new Jarry waiting this time, and Jarry's been a lot more reliable. I hope Ron beats his demands down into something more reasonable but if he can't...

 

[ChaosAgent]

Bettman said that's what it could do if player escrow is paid off by the end of the season, which it could be.

In any case, I'm with you. I don't want to throw money at Jarry, but I want to deal with finding a new goalie even less. It's the same as where I was with Murray, until he crapped that bed that season and Jarry waltzed in to take his spot. Well, there's no new Jarry waiting this time, and Jarry's been a lot more reliable. I hope Ron beats his demands down into something more reasonable but if he can't...

Do it sooner rather than later, then.

 

[SEALBound]

If TJ finishes this year again as a top 10 goalie, his age and with a poor market...he'll have suitors and we will either be forces to pay him an uncomfortable amount or put our hopes into a much lesser known commodity.


That's the issue. Supply and demand. Jarry on another good year will command term with 7M...

So we as a team must consider who can replace him? We gonna run one of our unknown AHL guys with CDS? Or pick up a worse quality cheaper tender in FA? It'll be rough any way you slice it.

Yeah the goalie market it going to present a challenge but at the same time, our goalie prospect pipeline is nothing to shake a stick at. I think the Avs proved that you can get by with the "good enough goalie". So maybe you can grab a Raanta or Reimer and combine that with CDS and then hopefully one of Lindberg, Blomqvist, or Gauthier asserts themselves the way Murray, Billington, Vasi, Gibson, etc have done in the past.

That said, it's not that I'm against resigning Jarry. Far from it. I'm just cautious (or guarding) against him using a weak goalie market to leverage a risky contract. We can't have an anchor contract in goal. We've seen what happens when teams give big deals to goalies and they fall off the cliff.

 

[Flying Dego]

Bettman said that's what it could do if player escrow is paid off by the end of the season, which it could be.

In any case, I'm with you. I don't want to throw money at Jarry, but I want to deal with finding a new goalie even less. It's the same as where I was with Murray, until he crapped that bed that season and Jarry waltzed in to take his spot. Well, there's no new Jarry waiting this time, and Jarry's been a lot more reliable. I hope Ron beats his demands down into something more reasonable but if he can't...

MM was pretty clearly never going to live up to a bigger contract. His signs of decline were glaring...

TJ is much stronger, you can see his game growing and I feel very comfortable at 6M with him vs the unknown...that said when it climbs to 7M and up I get itchy. Can he be worth 7M. Of course but there's more and more risk.

I think we end up having to pay him roughly 7M for 5 years or something.

 

[McGroarty2]

If TJ finishes this year again as a top 10 goalie, his age and with a poor market...he'll have suitors and we will either be forces to pay him an uncomfortable amount or put our hopes into a much lesser known commodity.


That's the issue. Supply and demand. Jarry on another good year will command term with 7M...

So we as a team must consider who can replace him? We gonna run one of our unknown AHL guys with CDS? Or pick up a worse quality cheaper tender in FA? It'll be rough any way you slice it.

Goalies play approx. 70-75% of a season's games, getting paid $7mil for 60 games is like getting $9.3 mil for a full year, that's more than Crosby.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I realize that there is kind of a "what choice do they have?" aspect going on here but 7M for Jarry is madness IMO.

 

[Peat]

At the end of the day I'd rather pay 7m to a goalie who's worth 5.5m than I would pay 3.5m to a goalie who's worth 3.5m. I would obviously rather do neither but I'd rather have the cap inefficiency than try to build a team so strong it can win in spite of its goaltending/is utterly dependent on a prospect emerging.

 

[PensandCaps]

I realize that there is kind of a "what choice do they have?" aspect going on here but 7M for Jarry is madness IMO.

And seeing how a guy like Desmith puts up a similar performance at a much lower cap hit. I think finding good goaltending isn't hard or expensive and that you should spend on your defense rather than your goalie.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

If they need to fork over f*** you money than it better be for one or two seasons. Like... dude hasn't only never won a playoff series... we barely even know what he can do, there. Not ALL his fault but 7M for playoff-proven goaltending is getting up there. Shit 7M for ANY goaltender is getting up there. The position is depressed salary-wise compared to their peers for good reason.

And I LIKE Jarry.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

And seeing how a guy like Desmith puts up a similar performance at a much lower cap hit. I think finding good goaltending isn't hard or expensive and that you should spend on your defense rather than your goalie.

7M would make Jarry the fourth highest paid goaltender in the league. Like... no... just no. I'm happy to entertain most arguments but this one is sealed, to me. The position is absolute voodoo horseshit, as important as it can be. The "best" players can sometimes be all over the map. And Jarry still has big question marks in the only category that really matters to this team.

Go ahead and pay the guy 7M. But I never ever in a million years want to hear again how this team "just can't afford" stuff like a top flight wing to put this team at super-scary status or a stud LD to round the D out to a near-elite level lol

 

[StIvany4Norris]

7M or less for Jarry is fine if the term isn't wild, maybe 3ish years, otherwise should aim for lower

Pens are in a great cap situation, better to overpay your goalie by 1M than be looking for a starter

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Go find another Comrie FFS. Caving to big goaltending contracts has disaster written all over it.

 

[gdsmack267]

I mean Cal Peterson who based on reading the Kings board is pretty hated over there is making 5 million AAV. His stats as a starter are worse than Jarrys. I think the 6.3-6.8 range is where Jarry will land

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I mean Cal Peterson who based on reading the Kings board is pretty hated over there is making 5 million AAV. His stats as a starter are worse than Jarrys. I think the 6.3-6.8 range is where Jarry will land

But doesn't this also kind of prove my point in a way? Like... Peterson was obviously thought extremely highly of by his team and talent evaluators. It wasn't like they gave him 5M just to be nice guys. But here he is... with a near 5.00 GAA. But hell next week he might dominate again. Comrie who I referenced above makes what CDS makes and he's killing it. But next week... who knows? And so the story of goaltending goes and will continue to go.

I just don't see any proof anywhere that goaltending is a position you pour real money into and in fact it seems to largely be the opposite. And I certainly don't like the defeatist attitude that "they just have no choice." There is a whole front office paid millions of dollars, here. Figure it out.

 

[Peat]

Also re the term thing

a) Realistically you can't get Jarry for 7m x 3 when he can go to the open market and get that times 5 or 6
b) If you're pretty much stuck with him for the rest of the Crosby era, then whether you're stuck with him in the rebuild after seems academic to me
c) There's probably some big cap raises coming. If it's not 4m this year, it will be next year. Once those floodgates open, it'll be up by 10m in 3-4 seasons barring economic disaster imo. Which means a lot of guys on long contracts are going to look very reasonably paid in 4 seasons, which takes a lot of the sting out of a long contract

So... either you're willing to make the guy the starter that carries the load or you're not. Dream risk free contracts are just that. But the risks to giving him the term needed to get him are smaller than people think.

 

[Peat]

But doesn't this also kind of prove my point in a way? Like... Peterson was obviously thought extremely highly of by his team and talent evaluators. It wasn't like they gave him 5M just to be nice guys. But here he is... with a near 5.00 GAA. But hell next week he might dominate again. Comrie who I referenced above makes what CDS makes and he's killing it. But next week... who knows? And so the story of goaltending goes and will continue to go.

I just don't see any proof anywhere that goaltending is a position you pour real money into and in fact it seems to largely be the opposite. And I certainly don't like the defeatist attitude that "they just have no choice." There is a whole front office paid millions of dollars, here. Figure it out.

Petersen got 5m after 1 NHL season at 35 games (plus a bunch of mainly AHL seasons before that). He posted a .911 save percentage and a fairly modest but useful GSAA/60 of .13 (so roughly one game over average saved every 8 games).

He posted a fairly bad season the season he got that contract - he was signed in September on the last year of his expiring contract.

So right now, Petersen doesn't look like "first a goalie is on top of the world, then he's on the bottom, who can tell", he looks like LA rushed to give money to a guy with a low number of NHL games and got burnt and were stupid to do so. We will see how the story ends, maybe he bounces back, but even if he's just the 1B goalie he was his first full-ish NHL season, it still looks mad premature.

Which imo proves the point that when NHL teams don't have a starter they trust, they struggle to find the next one. And often make rare asses of themselves in the process.

There is always a choice, but jumping on the goalie roulette wheel after having a consistent starter is like playing dice where the sides has 4 1s and 2 6s. There's enough 6s out there to make it look tempting, but most of the teams roll 1s and sink themselves.

 

[SEALBound]

MM was pretty clearly never going to live up to a bigger contract. His signs of decline were glaring...

TJ is much stronger, you can see his game growing and I feel very comfortable at 6M with him vs the unknown...that said when it climbs to 7M and up I get itchy. Can he be worth 7M. Of course but there's more and more risk.

I think we end up having to pay him roughly 7M for 5 years or something.

We can really only compare MM to Jarry using purely hindsight. While MM didn't put up the super high-quality season his last year here, his post season success was substantially better than Jarry leading up to the contract year. We can what-if everything all day but the fact is, Jarry remains a post-season unknown. He was the clear #1 reason for our loss to the Islanders.

No doubt MM is a cautionary tale, but I can at least understand some of the Senators' logic in giving him the deal. They were hoping he would get back to form. Jarry has dominant regular season stats...but nothing to show in the post-season - when it actually matters.

It's a tough discussion.

Goalies play approx. 70-75% of a season's games, getting paid $7mil for 60 games is like getting $9.3 mil for a full year, that's more than Crosby.

Wanna compare the minutes per game? Or minutes over an entire season?

 

[pistolpete11]

I think we also need to remind ourselves that we were bracing for Malkin to get $8M, Letang to get $9M, and Rust to get $7M.

Whatever 'reports' say that Jarry is asking for doesn't mean that's what he's going to get. There's no reason for either side to hurry into anything. There's a whole season ahead of us.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Haha... nah. I love you guys but nah. Goaltending is a very team-oriented and dependent position. Like it or not. Of course there are better and worse goaltenders out there but by and large it's just one big homogenized clump. Ya'll don't even have to take my word for it... ask GMs and what they choose to pay (or more appropriately NOT pay) "top" players in that position. If you guys think that's just weird coincidence then I dunno.

I like Jarry and want him to stay. But not as the second highest paid player on the team. As a goaltender. You guys lecture me sometimes about the prudence of certain decisions I'D love to see and fair enough. But this is my "hol up this is a dumb idea" hill to die on, I guess.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I feel like it's more likely that Jarry comes in right around $6 million, plus or minus $500k, than for him to come in either higher or lower than that.

The last goalie to get a $7 million or more extension was Vasilevskiy in 2019 and there are only 3 active goalies who make more than $6.5 million. Jarry getting $6 million would be exactly what Markstrom got and would have him as the 7th highest paid goalie in the NHL. I could see $6.5 million, which would have him as the 4th highest paid goalie, but I just can't see higher than that.

I would be fine with the Markstrom contract. 6 years at $6 million a year with a full NMC, which Markstrom signed when he was 30. I would offer that to Jarry right now, and I feel like it would be close enough to come to an agreement fairly quickly. On a team where Malkin and Letang make $6.1 million, I don't really see why Jarry would have a problem with $6 million.