Salary Cap: Pens Salary Cap Thread: If we score 6 we win, its science!

[Big Friggin Dummy]

A 4th or 5th isn't nothing I suppose but if Hextall is selling that low on POJ he might as well just waive him and get Smith up.

I think the FO is just trying to get anything for POJ as opposed to waiving him and having someone claim him for free. The ask probably isn't very high, but nobody's biting because they know they'll probably have a shot to snag him on waivers in a month. I think we probably only see POJ moved if a team lower on the claim list thinks POJ might be something and doesn't believe he'll make it to them to claim. Other than that, it's whatever.

POJ is worse than Smith right now, imo, and doesn't have the same ceiling Smith has. The only reason Smith is in WBS is because of the whole waivers thing. I still don't think POJ ends up anything more than a Ruhwedel-caliber guy, but let some other team figure out whether that's true or not. I don't think POJ-Rutta is killing the team or anything like that, but you wanna ice your best lineup, and I think Smith is the better option--*and* he's only 22 so he also still has tons of room to grow.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I don't disagree with any of that really but I mean... POJ is only a year older. He's not exactly a hoary old codger toiling in the minors for a decade. It just seems like he's been here forever.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I don't disagree with any of that really but I mean... POJ is only a year older. He's not exactly a hoary old codger toiling in the minors for a decade. It just seems like he's been here forever.

The difference is that POJ's pretty well plateaued, or at least stagnated, in this organization and system, imo. Still don't really know what Smith can do here.

I don't think Smith ends up any better than like, a bottom pairing/middle pairing offensive guy that needs a defensive partner to shelter him. I'm not trying to say we have a Letang waiting in the wings or anything. I just don't see POJ finding that next level here, and if he does somewhere else, I don't think that level is high enough to really give a shit about.

It's a whole lotta hand-wringing over another Zohorna situation. Dude's either gonna be dealt for some nothing asset like a 4th or 5th, or he'll be claimed on waivers in what's probably the first of many stops bouncing around from team to team on the waiver wire.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I'm not talking about 3 whooping games this year. You posted a link to last year. And I'm saying that sliding in a youngster with the same exact opportunities, would have given you "Brock McGinn 2021" numbers.

And you can't say "offensive outlier" to Boyle but not give that same bump to McGinn. If you didn't notice, goal scoring was up significantly compared to the prior year. So say that Boyle in a normal year would produce 20% less goals, that's still in McGinn territory. Rising tide floats all boats and all that. And Boyle didn't have shitty linemates last year and got 70% D zone starts? Every excuse you bring up for McGinn, please apply it to Boyle before you post it

No matter how much you want to pimp McGinn and come up with excuses for him, he's still an overpaid blah player whether he's on L1 or L4. And I posted that vid to show that he's off to a shitty start to the year for his supposed calling card.

You're agreeing with me that he had positive outlier stats while simultaneously arguing that his contract has been a failure here so far and he's provided nothing a league minimum player wouldn't do?
Now that's confusing.

Yeah, he's unlikely to repeat it. How about we wait until we see what he provides this year before declaring him a league minimum worthy player?

He's like a 2 or 2.25 mil player. Yes, overpaid, but not a dime a dozen 4th liner.
Even putting the goals aside, he had a big hand in our PK being 3rd last year, and was pretty good defensively at ES as well. You earn money on solid defensive work too.

Everyone here is wringing their hands over losing like 750k or 500k in value here.
It's the same shit with Blueger in the summer on this board. Suddenly he's not worth spending 2.2 on to people when his stats scream otherwise. All because they believe that spending more than minimum on the 4th line directly results in losing somehow. The argument was he should be shipped off because of not producing offense in a 82% d-zone role vs the Rangers.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Smith has had some intriguing early success in his career at the NHL level. So did Marino.

I guess I'm just saying that defensemen are kinda tough to get a read on until nearly their mid 20s unless they're a stud. But yeah... I mean... I also am not seeing much from POJ over the years that suggests the team would be making a horrible mistake were he let go, either.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Yeah, I don't think it *really* matters all that much. I just think Smith-Rutta is a better pairing than POJ-Rutta, and Smith has a higher ceiling (and more exciting skillset) than POJ by a pretty sizeable margin.

But in the end, we're talking about two bottom pairing 22-23 year old blueliners who aren't really gonna light the world on fire. The decision doesn't really affect wins and losses much.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yeah, I don't think it *really* matters all that much. I just think Smith-Rutta is a better pairing than POJ-Rutta, and Smith has a higher ceiling (and more exciting skillset) than POJ by a pretty sizeable margin.

But in the end, we're talking about two bottom pairing 22-23 year old blueliners who aren't really gonna light the world on fire. The decision doesn't really affect wins and losses much.

This is way better than wondering why the f*** Evgeni Malkin is playing with Blake Comeau or whatever. That's for sure.

 

[Peat]

A 4th or 5th isn't nothing I suppose but if Hextall is selling that low on POJ he might as well just waive him and get Smith up.

Depends how long it takes. If it takes him 10-20 games in which to trade POJ then it's very much squeezing the pennies, but it seems worthwhile.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Bettman says the cap could rise by at least 4mil next year if escrows are paid back in full.
Now that would open doors for us to get a solid top 6 winger in the summer.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Bettman says the cap could rise by at least 4mil next year if escrows are paid back in full.
Now that would open doors for us to get a solid top 6 winger in the summer.

Wingers are not the issue. Outside of Rakell, the top 6 has performed and produced. Rakell just needs to get going and he'll be fine. But the top 6 isn't the problem. It's quite amusing that it's the go to complaint for everyone here and then they'll quote stats and completely miss the point.

The move that needs to be made is on Defense. POJ has been fine. Pettersson has not for a while now, that's a bigger cap move that makes next summer a smarter play for Hextall to pick up some rfa or free agents to add to keep this team fresh going forward for one of the oldest teams in the league largely due to the way the coaching staff prioritizes things, mind you.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Bettman says the cap could rise by at least 4mil next year if escrows are paid back in full.
Now that would open doors for us to get a solid top 6 winger in the summer.

They could have $13M to replace Dumoulin and Zucker

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Wingers are not the issue. Outside of Rakell, the top 6 has performed and produced. Rakell just needs to get going and he'll be fine. But the top 6 isn't the problem. It's quite amusing that it's the go to complaint for everyone here and then they'll quote stats and completely miss the point.

The move that needs to be made is on Defense. POJ has been fine. Pettersson has not for a while now, that's a bigger cap move that makes next summer a smarter play for Hextall to pick up some rfa or free agents to add to keep this team fresh going forward for one of the oldest teams in the league largely due to the way the coaching staff prioritizes things, mind you.

Well people talk about the top 6 here a lot and we will need to replace Zucker if he's gone, so I'm showing how it's possible now. If Heinen has another good year then he'll get a big pay bump and we may let him go as well. Kap will be here still, but who knows if he'll be top 6 worthy at that point.
Someone has to play the position.

I don't see Petts as being this big problem like many here. He's done quite well in these first 3 games and was arguably our best D in the playoffs.
For me he plays close to like 3 - 3.5 mil a lot of the time. That's just what middle pair D cost.
I'm not overly attached to him but I'm not convinced his replacement will move mountains here either. It's possible I guess.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

They could have $13M to replace Dumoulin and Zucker

If it happens, there's 23 mil with:

UFA: Jarry, Dumoulin, Zucker, Blueger, Heinen, Archibald
RFA: Poehling

Let's say we bring back Jarrs at 7 mil AAV... you got 16 mil for those 6 positions.
I could see the 2nd line winger and Dumo replacement/renewal costing like 9 mil of that.

Obviously we don't know who else will be subtracted but that's all the info we have now.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

If it happens, there's 23 mil with:

UFA: Jarry, Dumoulin, Zucker, Blueger, Heinen, Archibald
RFA: Poehling

Let's say we bring back Jarrs at 7 mil AAV... you got 16 mil for those 6 positions.
I could see the 2nd line winger and Dumo replacement/renewal costing like 9 mil of that.

Obviously we don't know who else will be subtracted but that's all the info we have now.

I really doubt Jarry gets 7M, he'd be the 4th highest paid goalie and has never been close to a Vezina finalist

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I really doubt Jarry gets 7M, he'd be the 4th highest paid goalie and has never been close to a Vezina finalist

With the cap rising significantly over the course of his next deal, I don't expect any less than 6 mil if he has another good year.

 

[Pens x]

With the cap rising significantly over the course of his next deal, I don't expect any less than 6 mil if he has another good year.

He could be cheaper if he poops the bed in the playoffs, yet again.

 

[Gurglesons]

Not sure I really get the hate on Petersson.

Seems to be doing a great job at 5v5 and has two absolute laser passes for two goals with Malkin and Rust.

 

[Peat]

Bettman says the cap could rise by at least 4mil next year if escrows are paid back in full.
Now that would open doors for us to get a solid top 6 winger in the summer.

Call me a miseryguts but when you put it that way I feel it does us no favours. We could already throw 6.5m at a top 6 wing, no problems, which pretty much got you your pick in FA sans the whales last year, and I'm not sure a ton of teams could do that.

Now a whole bunch can, and the route of picking up cap casualties gets more expensive because that 4m is a lifeline to teams like Vegas.

Also here's the list of expiring UFA top 6 wings

Kane
Tarasenko
Patches
Pasta
Zucker
Nyquist
Drouin
Dadonov
Bertuzzi
Tatar
Killorn
Brown
Bunting

13 available today, a few of those will be resigned before the season's done. A couple seem real bad ideas to injuries + age (Patches) or awful playoff histories (Tatar). Wouldn't be surprised to see a few more play their way off of being guys you want (Nyquist and Dadonov at 34). There's probably going to be less than 10 serious options, maybe as little as 5 if drop-offs and resignings are unkind.

Not really a market you want a lot of competition in.


Incidentally, I also think if the team has any ideas of getting a top six wing rental at the deadline they want to scout the hell out of Montreal because if Columbus would rather sell elsewhere, it's kinda Montreal or bust (well, Kane sweepstakes and hope Detroit are bad). Bottom six... I give it a couple of months before the board won't shut up about Miles Wood for more than 3 days.

 

[Gurglesons]

Call me a miseryguts but when you put it that way I feel it does us no favours. We could already throw 6.5m at a top 6 wing, no problems, which pretty much got you your pick in FA sans the whales last year, and I'm not sure a ton of teams could do that.

Now a whole bunch can, and the route of picking up cap casualties gets more expensive because that 4m is a lifeline to teams like Vegas.

Also here's the list of expiring UFA top 6 wings

Kane
Tarasenko
Patches
Pasta
Zucker
Nyquist
Drouin
Dadonov
Bertuzzi
Tatar
Killorn
Brown
Bunting

13 available today, a few of those will be resigned before the season's done. A couple seem real bad ideas to injuries + age (Patches) or awful playoff histories (Tatar). Wouldn't be surprised to see a few more play their way off of being guys you want (Nyquist and Dadonov at 34). There's probably going to be less than 10 serious options, maybe as little as 5 if drop-offs and resignings are unkind.

Not really a market you want a lot of competition in.


Incidentally, I also think if the team has any ideas of getting a top six wing rental at the deadline they want to scout the hell out of Montreal because if Columbus would rather sell elsewhere, it's kinda Montreal or bust (well, Kane sweepstakes and hope Detroit are bad). Bottom six... I give it a couple of months before the board won't shut up about Miles Wood for more than 3 days.

I think the smart move is you keep the cap open and hope the cap doesn't go up so you can take advantage of the cap locked teams ala Carolina and Seattle this offseason.

 

[Peat]

Not sure I really get the hate on Petersson.

Seems to be doing a great job at 5v5 and has two absolute laser passes for two goals with Malkin and Rust.

Also not culpable for any PK goals yet (because he's not been on ice for any).

I think the smart move is you keep the cap open and hope the cap doesn't go up so you can take advantage of the cap locked teams ala Carolina and Seattle this offseason.

Roughly my hope but not the teams I'd have picked as being in trouble. Carolina will have 29.4m worth of space as stands this off-season and most of that's getting lost from Patches and Jordan Staal i.e. no big deal. They'll be sweating losing both goalies but otherwise they look peachy, albeit not for long as off-season after next they see Aho, Teravainen, Necas, Jarvis, Skjei and Pesce all need new deals.

Seattle have 20.5m worth currently and no major expiring players other than Vince Dunn.

...

I just typed a lot of meaningless words because you meant exploit teams in the manner that Carolina and Seattle did, not exploit teams such as Carolina and Seattle, didn't I? Guess I'll leave it in case anyone's really curious about their cap situations next summer.

 

[Gurglesons]

Also not culpable for any PK goals yet (because he's not been on ice for any).



Roughly my hope but not the teams I'd have picked as being in trouble. Carolina will have 29.4m worth of space as stands this off-season and most of that's getting lost from Patches and Jordan Staal i.e. no big deal. They'll be sweating losing both goalies but otherwise they look peachy, albeit not for long as off-season after next they see Aho, Teravainen, Necas, Jarvis, Skjei and Pesce all need new deals.

Seattle have 20.5m worth currently and no major expiring players other than Vince Dunn.

...

I just typed a lot of meaningless words because you meant exploit teams in the manner that Carolina and Seattle did, not exploit teams such as Carolina and Seattle, didn't I? Guess I'll leave it in case anyone's really curious about their cap situations next summer.

Correct. Rather see us acquire a Meier due to a cap crunch than sign a Bertuzzi for 8-9 mil.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Call me a miseryguts but when you put it that way I feel it does us no favours. We could already throw 6.5m at a top 6 wing, no problems, which pretty much got you your pick in FA sans the whales last year, and I'm not sure a ton of teams could do that.

Now a whole bunch can, and the route of picking up cap casualties gets more expensive because that 4m is a lifeline to teams like Vegas.

Also here's the list of expiring UFA top 6 wings

Kane
Tarasenko
Patches
Pasta
Zucker
Nyquist
Drouin
Dadonov
Bertuzzi
Tatar
Killorn
Brown
Bunting

13 available today, a few of those will be resigned before the season's done. A couple seem real bad ideas to injuries + age (Patches) or awful playoff histories (Tatar). Wouldn't be surprised to see a few more play their way off of being guys you want (Nyquist and Dadonov at 34). There's probably going to be less than 10 serious options, maybe as little as 5 if drop-offs and resignings are unkind.

Not really a market you want a lot of competition in.


Incidentally, I also think if the team has any ideas of getting a top six wing rental at the deadline they want to scout the hell out of Montreal because if Columbus would rather sell elsewhere, it's kinda Montreal or bust (well, Kane sweepstakes and hope Detroit are bad). Bottom six... I give it a couple of months before the board won't shut up about Miles Wood for more than 3 days.

There'll be emerging top 6 talents that go UFA just like every year. We'll find someone if Zucker is being let go.
That being said, I'd like Bertuzzi the most off that list, at least in terms of realistic acquisitions.
I wouldn't have given 6.5 this summer to a winger unless he's a difference maker on PP1, which Kane or Miller would have been.

I agree that the 4M doesn't do us favours relative to other teams, but I disagree in that I think it will make us more likely to go big game hunting for that winger. Hextall viewed things more like me this summer, where he preferred balance. He'll have more leeway now to change that approach a little.

Honestly if the team really looks strong at the deadline then I'd just say to hell with it and pay what it takes for Kane. The window is almost gone, and I don't see anyone else giving us a better chance this season.
If it fails then it fails, but at least they'll have given themselves a shot. It will take something special to help us beat contenders now. May have to face New York again or Carolina in R1.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Tossing my hat in the ring here prediction-wise; I'm gonna assume Zucker's kept at like $3.75 million AAV for three years. Dumo's kept at $4.25 million AAV for three years. Jarry's kept at $6 million for four years. Heinen's kept at $3.25 million for two years.

Assuming the cap jumps to $86.5 million ($4 million increase per Daly, yadda yadda).

I'm quick-and-dirty mathing something like $85.575 million with guys like Blueger, Smith, Poehling sticking around at reasonable prices.

If the cap doesn't jump, I expect Blueger to walk and Poehling to be the new 4C. Still don't expect Petts moved until the cap jumps a good bit, maybe after the $4 million if it happens.

 

[Gurglesons]

Tossing my hat in the ring here prediction-wise; I'm gonna assume Zucker's kept at like $3.75 million AAV for three years. Dumo's kept at $4.25 million AAV for three years. Jarry's kept at $6 million for four years. Heinen's kept at $3.25 million for two years.

Assuming the cap jumps to $86.5 million ($4 million increase per Daly, yadda yadda).

I'm quick-and-dirty mathing something like $85.575 million with guys like Blueger, Smith, Poehling sticking around at reasonable prices.

If the cap doesn't jump, I expect Blueger to walk and Poehling to be the new 4C. Still don't expect Petts moved until the cap jumps a good bit, maybe after the $4 million if it happens.

Honestly would be shocked to see Hextall double down on so many players he didn’t acquire / aren’t RFAs.

I think Jarry is obvious. All the others outside of the RFAs are fair game.

 

[66-30-33]

Tarasenko would be pretty lethal next to Malkin. Rust back to Crosby line and Rakell to LW the Malkin line.