But he can be good enough to claim a jersey and see how much he grows when exposed to gameplay. That's exactly what's happened with POJ and so far that looks like it's working out well.
I'd like him to be significantly outplaying Friedman, but there's not a lot of shame in tying a guy who has looked like he belongs in the NHL every chance we give him. Friedman not being in the NHL is a numbers and contract thing more than a reflection on his own performance. If Smith can equal Friedman's all round play, he can stick in the NHL. Given the hope he can be a major PP contributor, he will probably get that chance ahead of Friedman.
And from there it's up to him.
He may cut it, but my question is if rolling the dice on him is the best move. That could very well be a decision management needs to make during free agency already, before his NHL sample size grows and there's more evidence to go off of.
We'll have enough cap space bring in someone pretty strong to replace Dumo.
I'm a little concerned with Smith's fit here. PP1 would obviously be ideal, but will Reirden+Sully really hand over the reigns to a kid in his first year with the big club? They're gonna strip the job from veterans like Letang and Petry? Maybe, but I'm not optimistic on that front. Reirden is pretty close with Letang. It would take a lot for him to lose the spot, as we saw this year.
I don't expect the 2D approach either if we're healthy. That would involve demoting a Forward, and who would that be?
POJ had at least a history of playing fairly acceptable defense at this level. Smith has a different skillset. He can't be used on the PK either.
How much offense could he realistically provide with 3rd pairing + PP2 minutes, and would that be the best thing for the team?
Going with that LD layout also banks on POJ keeping this up, and doing well in a 2nd pairing role. We've seen D fall off cliffs from one year to the next here many times before. I don't think we should rely on Petts being this good again either.
It's fairly likely that we'll end up needing a top 4 level LD, or at least a 2nd/3rd pair tweener like Rutta. We won't be in a cap situation where we're forced to gamble on youth.