Salary Cap: Pens Salary Cap: Free Agency, everyone panic!!! Geno talk to the Geno thread only please

[Zirakzigil]

Off season time. New thread time apparently cause @Ugene Magic doesn’t like high page counts.

So how about them Malkin and Letang UFAs? Maybe we should sign one or both.

Geno thread. Keep Geno talk here:

Rumor: - Geno where art thou?

With all the Geno rumors and news, time for its own thread. Keep the Geno talk here please.

hfboards.mandatory.com

Click to read more...

 

[Andy99]

There were years where Geno made more, what is the big deal?

two years : 2019-20 and this past season when Sid made $9M and Geno made $500k more…that’s it…no big deal, I was just refuting Madden’s lie presented in his article.

 

[Ryder71]

It is. Estimated career earnings so far are:

Malkin - $118,720,892
Crosby - $138,340,243
ZAR - $4,931,385

Right so MM was correct yet again. I'm proud of him, thanks Super genius!

 

[DesertedPenguin]

5 on 5 Geno isn't, not anywhere close to where he was. And once again he misses a TON of games. Players can't help you IF they aren't playing. I'd rather have Trocheck for say 75 games a year than an older Geno for say 55 or 60 games a year.

His 5-on-5 play was heavily influenced by his wingers being unable to convert. If you bring him back, trade Pettersson, then you have cap room to substantially upgrade his wingers by playing him with someone like a fully available Rakell and another free agent.

 

[ChaosAgent]

5 on 5 Geno isn't, not anywhere close to where he was. And once again he misses a TON of games. Players can't help you IF they aren't playing. I'd rather have Trocheck for say 75 games a year than an older Geno for say 55 or 60 games a year.

I don't worry at all about replacing Geno's recent contributions at 5-on-5.
Yeah his replacement won't have as many points. Big whoop. If we're going to fill out L2 with mediocre talent may as well play like a mediocre Sully grind line. Which would be more effective to winning hockey than our L2s since 2018. Lean into your own averageness. You ain't Harrison Bergeron.

I worry about the powerplay. GCR, Letang + 1 other won't work. I don't know how they'd plan on running the 1st powerplay without Geno, but I don't have high hopes.

One other caveat is that with Geno L2 could be good if you surround him with actual top talent. That means tossing out the Zuckers and the Kapanens. Not to mention the possibility of playing him as a winger with Sid & Jake pretty soon.

 

[Ryder71]

two years : 2019-20 and this past season when Sid made $9M and Geno made $500k more…that’s it…no big deal, I was just refuting Madden’s lie presented in his article.

Don't worry bout it, Geno will be re signed, they just want another ''pop'' to keep the STH's and fanbase as a whole engaged, then they'll want another ''pop'' late this week in free agency. Do you remember when I suggested a couple days before the draft they'll probably announce the Letang deal at the draft to get a bigger ''pop'' and more eyeballs on it? I thought that scenario was quite obvious as it was heading that way. Geno will be here, whether we like it or not. And this is coming from a guy who only behind Mario adores Geno as my favorite Pen.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I'll rip everyone involved in L2 sucking the last 2 years, thanks.

Zucker
Kapanen
Carter
ZAR
Heinen

That extends to one more player than you're willing to go to, because he's a sacred cow.

That said, I hope we bring him back for 3/$17-18 or 4/$20-22.

But for me this isn't a "the team can only let Malkin down, Malkin can't let the team down." It goes both ways. L1, Jarry and rando hot streaks from the likes of McCann, Boyle, Cody Ceci and ERod have allowed this team to comfortably make the playoffs with a second line that sucks. I'm not expecting it to continue.

This isn't merely opinion...the underlying numbers support the reasonable conclusion - Malkin is creating as well as ever, but unlike Crosby his linemates suck ass.

 

[Ryder71]

His 5-on-5 play was heavily influenced by his wingers being unable to convert. If you bring him back, trade Pettersson, then you have cap room to substantially upgrade his wingers by playing him with someone like a fully available Rakell and another free agent.

And my guess is they are making a concerted effort in doing that. I don't disagree his wingers soiled the bed, but three primary assists is still rather abysmal regardless. .

 

[Pens x]

Sleepy is running out of time to offload Pettersson/Dumo/someone else.

Why do I think he will simply re-sign Heinen, Malkin and Erod, and call it a summer?

 

[ChaosAgent]

This isn't opinion, the underlying numbers support what any reasonable person would conclude - Malkin is creating as well as ever, his linemates just suck ass.

Which ones, specifically, and do these include the linemates Malkin has openly advocated to be re-signed on social media (Kapanen?)

The swing from Malkin's actual goal differential (-6) to expected goal differential (+4.3) is so high that it ceases to even be reasonable. Geno was unlucky last year. Yes, I agree. But 10.3 goals in 40 games unlucky?

Coming off a 2021 in which he was negative in both xG and actual goal diff, no less.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

This isn't merely opinion...the underlying numbers support the reasonable conclusion - Malkin is creating as well as ever, but unlike Crosby his linemates suck ass.

Obviously it's Malkin and not the stalwarts that are Danton Heinen and Evan Rodrigues that carried Geno.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

I mean we've got a poster who wants to slurp both Carter and Malkin, and then all of a sudden these titans of productivity blow chunks together?

 

[ChaosAgent]

Go through the line tool and plug in:

Erod with and without Malkin
Kap with and without Malkin
Carter with and without Malkin
Heinen with and without Malkin
Zucker with and without Malkin

All were worse with him than without him. Did they all play worse? Or get worse at finishing when he happened to be on the ice?

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Go through the line tool and plug in:

Erod with and without Malkin
Kap with and without Malkin
Carter with and without Malkin
Heinen with and without Malkin
Zucker with and without Malkin

All were worse with him than without him. Did they all play worse? Or get worse at finishing when he happened to be on the ice?

Uh, might want to doublecheck the numbers. While Rodrigues, Zucker, Kapanen and Carter were worse with Geno, not everyone was.

Heinen with Geno - 57.77 CF%, 52.17 GF%, 58.88 xGF%, 61.1 SCF%
Heinen without Geno - 52.78 CF%, 55 GF%, 55.97 xGF%, 55.71 SCF%

You also omitted Rust:
Rust with Geno - 56.97 CF%, 56.25 GF%, 60.61 xGF%, 61.36 SCF%
Rust without Geno - 49.93 CF%, 53.23 GF%, 49.32 xGF%, 51.82 SCF%

We've known for over a decade that Crosby and Malkin each do better with different types of players. Rodrigues carries the puck a lot, much like Kessel. That's why both of those partnerships failed. Kapanen should work but he got in his head. Zucker and Carter both struggled throughout last year, too.

Heinen doesn't deviate from his game, doesn't want the puck on his stick. That works for Geno. And we've always known Rust works.

Give Malkin the right type of wingers and he'll flourish. They don't have to be stars - his best season of late came with Hagelin and Hornqvist.

 

[TKalltheTime]

Ouch, Geno seems pissed.

How f*** you are such a mark. Ha

 

[3ladesof5teel]

Go through the line tool and plug in:

Erod with and without Malkin
Kap with and without Malkin
Carter with and without Malkin
Heinen with and without Malkin
Zucker with and without Malkin

All were worse with him than without him. Did they all play worse? Or get worse at finishing when he happened to be on the ice?

Look at that murders row that Geno had the chance to play with.

I am not saying Geno shouldn't be able to produce b/c he absolutely should and the funny thing he still does but that's a pretty ugly choice of teammates he had there.

Zucker coming off of multiple injuries etc didn't even have ample opportunity to get to his game. When he did he would get hurt again. Many here were and still despise Zucker but many did come around on his play. He just was extremely unlucky with injuries.

Kapanen looked the best he ever did for a short time with Geno, they looked unstoppable at times, obviously that didn't continue.

Everyone on that list has been extremely streaky but have played some good hockey at times with Geno, Zucker being the only player truly close to a top 6 winger

Many here don't even deserve to see Geno again in a Pens uniform and thats a sad thing, not even realizing what you have. The players know and that should tell you all you need to. Guy is still a top player in the league.

Get it done

 

[ChaosAgent]

Uh, might want to doublecheck the numbers. While Rodrigues, Zucker, Kapanen and Carter were worse with Geno, not everyone was.

Heinen with Geno - 57.77 CF%, 52.17 GF%, 58.88 xGF%, 61.1 SCF%
Heinen without Geno - 52.78 CF%, 55 GF%, 55.97 xGF%, 55.71 SCF%

You also omitted Rust:
Rust with Geno - 56.97 CF%, 56.25 GF%, 60.61 xGF%, 61.36 SCF%
Rust without Geno - 49.93 CF%, 53.23 GF%, 49.32 xGF%, 51.82 SCF%

We've known for over a decade that Crosby and Malkin each do better with different types of players. Rodrigues carries the puck a lot, much like Kessel. That's why both of those partnerships failed. Kapanen should work but he got in his head. Zucker and Carter both struggled throughout last year, too.

Heinen doesn't deviate from his game, doesn't want the puck on his stick. That works for Geno. And we've always known Rust works.

Give Malkin the right type of wingers and he'll flourish. They don't have to be stars - his best season of late came with Hagelin and Hornqvist.

I'm talking about actual goals, not expected. The whole thesis of the "Malkin was a 97th percentile WAR" crowd is that he was consistently let down by his teammates in terms of results. It's an xG argument. xG isn't a result. Goals are.

The thinking goes that certain wingers must have dragged him down by being unable to finish. Well, maybe that's true but then it must also be acknowledged that those guys didn't drag down others aside from him.

There's 5 players who had significant time with Malkin whose goal differential - actual goals - was worse without him than with him. Erod, Carter, Zucker, Kapanen, and Heinen.

Indeed Rust was better with him than without. Conversely Rakell was far better with Sid.

I'll believe in a thing called luck, and I do believe Malkin looked much better from the eye test this last year than in 2021 when he was garbage. But the degree to which the model that feeds the chart that everyone shows like a Q.E.D. shows such a degree of bad luck that it strains credulity.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Look at that murders row that Geno had the chance to play with.

I am not saying Geno shouldn't be able to produce b/c he absolutely should and the funny thing he still does but that's a pretty ugly choice of teammates he had there.

Zucker coming off of multiple injuries etc didn't even have ample opportunity to get to his game. When he did he would get hurt again. Many here were and still despise Zucker but many did come around on his play. He just was extremely unlucky with injuries.

Kapanen looked the best he ever did for a short time with Geno, they looked unstoppable at times, obviously that didn't continue.

Everyone on that list has been extremely streaky but have played some good hockey at times with Geno, Zucker being the only player truly close to a top 6 winger

Many here don't even deserve to see Geno again in a Pens uniform and thats a sad thing, not even realizing what you have. The players know and that should tell you all you need to. Guy is still a top player in the league.

Get it done

The murderers row scored more often than it got scored on when it wasn't with him. When it played with him, it got outscored.

That's a fact. xG is a model. Maybe a good one. But bear in mind that you're relying on math that is obviously ten levels beyond your ability to comprehend it.

 

[Ginormousthumbs]

The only way to settle this is through a poll

 

[ChaosAgent]

The only way to settle this is through a poll

On what, exactly? 80%+ of this board wants them to bring Malkin back. Me included.

But am I happy with his recent performance in the regular season? Absolutely not.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

The murderers row scored more often than it got scored on when it wasn't with him. When it played with him, it got outscored.

That's a fact. xG is a model. Maybe a good one. But bear in mind that you're relying on math that is obviously ten levels beyond your ability to comprehend it.

I guess Joe Blow in his basement (you) know more than players that actually play the sport. We lose Geno some team is going to be pretty happy.

Someone already mentioned your models are off and to tell you the truth many models are just that, models. We've seen time and time again models only get you so far and many of these "model experts" even admit Geno is an outlier.

Facts are he is still and excellent hockey player who would be a 1c on many NHL teams and is a complete luxury as a 2

 

[DesertedPenguin]

I'm talking about actual goals, not expected. The whole thesis of the "Malkin was a 97th percentile WAR" crowd is that he was consistently let down by his teammates in terms of results. It's an xG argument. xG isn't a result. Goals are.

The thinking goes that certain wingers must have dragged him down by being unable to finish. Well, maybe that's true but then it must also be acknowledged that those guys didn't drag down others aside from him.

There's 5 players who had significant time with Malkin whose goal differential - actual goals - was worse without him than with him. Erod, Carter, Zucker, Kapanen, and Heinen.

Indeed Rust was better with him than without. Conversely Rakell was far better with Sid.

I'll believe in a thing called luck, and I do believe Malkin looked much better from the eye test this last year than in 2021 when he was garbage. But the degree to which the model that feeds the chart that everyone shows like a Q.E.D. shows such a degree of bad luck that it strains credulity.

The result obviously matters, but the process is important, too. That's why possession stats and scoring chances are valuable, and the possession stats show that Malkin did a lot of things right 5 on 5. They just didn't translate to goals.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I guess Joe Blow in his basement (you) know more than players that actually play the sport. We lose Geno some team is going to be pretty happy.

Someone already mentioned your models are off and to tell you the truth many models are just that, models. We've seen time and time again models only get you so far and many of these "model experts" even admit Geno is an outlier.

Facts are he is still and excellent hockey player who would be a 1c on many NHL teams and is a complete luxury as a 2

Joe Blow in his office (Hextall) seems to have a pretty low opinion of what he's seen from Malkin based on the negotiations. Joe Blow Sullivan described Malkin's ES game as "uneven" last year. I don't even want to know what Joe Blow Sullivan would have described 2021 as until Kapanen went on his heater.

Maybe some other team will be very happy. I think Malkin could still be a good 1C. The problem is that here he gets Zucker - a 3rd liner - and Rust. Or let's be real, Zucker/Rakell or Heinen/Rust.

My preferred option is still to bring him back and put him on a line with either Trocheck (FA signing), Palat or Miller (Marino, Zucker, 2 1sts).

 

[3ladesof5teel]

I'm talking about actual goals, not expected. The whole thesis of the "Malkin was a 97th percentile WAR" crowd is that he was consistently let down by his teammates in terms of results. It's an xG argument. xG isn't a result. Goals are.

The thinking goes that certain wingers must have dragged him down by being unable to finish. Well, maybe that's true but then it must also be acknowledged that those guys didn't drag down others aside from him.

There's 5 players who had significant time with Malkin whose goal differential - actual goals - was worse without him than with him. Erod, Carter, Zucker, Kapanen, and Heinen.

Indeed Rust was better with him than without. Conversely Rakell was far better with Sid.

I'll believe in a thing called luck, and I do believe Malkin looked much better from the eye test this last year than in 2021 when he was garbage. But the degree to which the model that feeds the chart that everyone shows like a Q.E.D. shows such a degree of bad luck that it strains credulity.

Erod - Went on an absolute tear that wasn't substantial with or without Geno - his #s are going to be extremely skewed during that streak

Kap - played some of his best hockey 2 years ago with Geno - never really put anything together

Zucker - Zucker was injured, Geno wasn't - Zucker healthy (if you want to call it that) Geno was injured. They have rarely played with one another healthy

Carter - fell off after he was eating all the mins covering Crosby/Malkin time. He helped keep our heads above water when we needed him but obviously took its toll later in the season.

None of these players have had significant time with Geno

 

[Bowski]

On what, exactly? 80%+ of this board wants them to bring Malkin back. Me included.

But am I happy with his recent performance in the regular season? Absolutely not.

You still give a damn about the regular season?

 

[3ladesof5teel]

Joe Blow in his office (Hextall) seems to have a pretty low opinion of what he's seen from Malkin based on the negotiations. Joe Blow Sullivan described Malkin's ES game as "uneven" last year. I don't even want to know what Joe Blow Sullivan would have described 2021 as until Kapanen went on his heater.

Maybe some other team will be very happy. I think Malkin could still be a good 1C. The problem is that here he gets Zucker - a 3rd liner - and Rust. Or let's be real, Zucker/Rakell or Heinen/Rust.

My preferred option is still to bring him back and put him on a line with either Trocheck (FA signing), Palat or Miller (Marino, Zucker, 2 1sts).

Hextall owes Malkin nothing (Geno has won nothing since he's been here) he owes the ownership a team that can contend b/c that's what they ask and that's who signs his check

If getting Geno for the least amount he can means getting a better team and pissing of Geno he's probably going to play that card. Geno said he wanted to stay here and would do it at a reasonable cost. Hex is going to test that and in turn builds the best team he thinks he can. Playing with fire if you ask me but as I said he has no loyalty to Geno