Salary Cap: Pens Salary and Signing thread: Dr StrangeDubas or How We Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Karlsson Watch

[3ladesof5teel]

Why I'm still angered over the Granlund trade and the fact he wasn't bought out /dumped prior to FA.
We theoretically could have had Smith AND brough Zucker back without boat anchor Granlund. Talk about winger depth and flexibility.

Or for those that don't care for Zucker, perhaps Bertuzzi. Also the EK deal could be absorbed a bit better...

Yes, it was the TDL deal that cost him his job. It stings more b/c he had the greenlight and that's what he came away with.

Only can hope that something happens here with Granlund before the season or somehow he steps up a gear and surprises us ( with what he is surrounded with on L3 it doesn't fit well to his game so its unlikely IMO)

 

[Gurglesons]

I like how you keep saying factually incorrect things and then saying "one of Smith's family members will come in defending him".

If you'd stop saying "Zucker and Smith are a wash offensively", no one would be criticizing your opinion. It's that you keep saying things that are easily disproven with looking on hockeydb for 20 seconds.

I mean they aren’t a wash. Zucker has 18 less goals than Smith in nearly two less seasons.

They produce the same amount of points typically and Smith can play all situations, but we are going to take a significant hit goal wise in the top six IMO.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I also don't know where this myth is coming from that Smith is a 2-way player, he's not. He's great on the PK but his defensive metrics at 5v5 have consistently been pretty poor.

I mean they aren’t a wash. Zucker has 18 less goals than Smith in nearly two less seasons.

They produce the same amount of points typically and Smith can play all situations, but we are going to take a significant hit goal wise in the top six IMO.

You can open up hockeydb for literally 10 seconds and realize this is just completely false.

 

[Gurglesons]

I also don't know where this myth is coming from that Smith is a 2-way player, he's not. He's great on the PK but his defensive metrics at 5v5 have consistently been pretty poor.



I You can open up hockeydb for literally 10 seconds and realize this is just completely false.

Never seen Jason Zucker on a penalty kill. But okay?

 

[Ryder71]

Then trade him. What’s the harm?

Hey, I'd be all for trading him. I was wanting to trade him at the TDL of '22. We could have gotten a huge return. Still could get a nice haul.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Never seen Jason Zucker on a penalty kill. But okay?

I also don't know where this myth is coming from that Smith is a 2-way player, he's not. He's great on the PK but his defensive metrics at 5v5 have consistently been pretty poor.

It's almost like the stats that judge players defensively at 5v5 exist, so judging players defensively based on whether they PK makes no sense.

Smith is a great PKer but a poor defensive player at 5v5 analytically.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

I like how you keep saying factually incorrect things and then saying "one of Smith's family members will come in defending him".

If you'd stop saying "Zucker and Smith are a wash offensively", no one would be criticizing your opinion. It's that you keep saying things that are easily disproven with looking on hockeydb for 20 seconds.

I dont think you disproved anything, you showed me some stats of Zucker from 20-22 which really dont mean much IMO. We all know he was laboring with a core injury and his common linemates were different for a good part of his time here. Geno/Kapanen/Heinen/Erod/Bluger/Oconner. I mean did you really expect good numbers considering the situation.

When Zucker finally was healthy and had common line-mates you see exactly what he is capable off.

What am I factually incorrect about?

Come-on Emp, you have to have some relationship with him.

 

[Gurglesons]

It's almost like the stats that judge players defensively at 5v5 exist, so judging players defensively based on whether they PK makes no sense.

Smith is a great PKer but a poor defensive player at 5v5 analytically.

When did I say he was a great defensive player in my post?

 

[Empoleon8771]

When did I say he was a great defensive player in my post?

Where did I ever accuse you of saying he was a great defensive player?

I was talking about the "they produce the same amount of points" comment, which can be disproven with looking at hockeydb for a second.

I dont think you disproved anything, you showed me some stats of Zucker from 20-22 which really dont mean much IMO. We all know he was laboring with a core injury and his common linemates were different for a good part of his time here. Geno/Kapanen/Heinen/Erod/Bluger/Oconner. I mean did you really expect good numbers considering the situation.

When Zucker finally was healthy and had common line-mates you see exactly what he is capable off.

What am I factually incorrect about?

Come-on Emp, you have to have some relationship with him.

"The stats don't confirm my beliefs so I'm choosing to ignore them".

 

[Allie Kitsune]

I dont think you disproved anything, you showed me some stats of Zucker from 20-22 which really dont mean much IMO. We all know he was laboring with a core injury and his common linemates were different for a good part of his time here. Geno/Kapanen/Heinen/Erod/Bluger/Oconner. I mean did you really expect good numbers considering the situation.

When Zucker finally was healthy and had common line-mates you see exactly what he is capable off.

What am I factually incorrect about?

Come-on Emp, you have to have some relationship with him.

What does the bolded accomplish?

 

[3ladesof5teel]

When did I say he was a great defensive player in my post?

I think he was referring to me saying Smith is better defensively than Zucker but I am not standing on a mountain screaming Smith it a great defensive forward

What does the bolded accomplish?

I think it was self explanatory. Emp is a strong enough individual that he can take a jab

 

[3ladesof5teel]

Where did I ever accuse you of saying he was a great defensive player?

I was talking about the "they produce the same amount of points" comment, which can be disproven with looking at hockeydb for a second.



"The stats don't confirm my beliefs so I'm choosing to ignore them".

Is it a belief or fact that he had a core injury that obviously hindered his play for the good part of 20-22?

And is it fact or belief that he was playing musical chairs with linemates during that time. Zucker would come back, Geno would get hurt. Geno came back Zucker got hurt?

I am not making this up. Should Zucker be good enough to get past the line-mate thing? Sure I guess but to say the injury wasn't hampering his play or number that you are trying to push on me is silly.

When healthy you seen what he could do and I have a feeling that Smith's numbers will be similar. We will just have to see.

 

[ChaosAgent]

If Reilly Smith is an amazing PKer, I refuse to believe he sucks 5-on-5 defensively. Defensive stats are really noisy and convoluted. We need some first principles thinking here.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

You right.

Honestly, I had to check the math and when his birthday is to make sure.

To be honest, it is just like the Karlsson deal. He is 33 and has 4 years left. Just like with him I could see teams balking at trading for Jake with 4 years left at that age. But that is only if he signed a 8 year contract.

And the other factor is that Jake may not want to sign for 8 years either. If he signs a 4 year deal then he can decide where to go when Crosby and Malkin are done. Shit, maybe he only signs like a 3 year deal to match up with Sid's next deal.

All this being said, I think it is very telling that an extension has not been worked out and signed.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

The Athletic player cards tell me that Reilly Smith is 1.75 times the defensive player that Jason Zucker is.

 

[Gurglesons]

Where did I ever accuse you of saying he was a great defensive player?

I was talking about the "they produce the same amount of points" comment, which can be disproven with looking at hockeydb for a second.

I don’t think their production is that far off.

Zucker is the better 5v5 player. Smith was a big part of the powerplays in Vegas and Florida.

If you think Reilly Smith is getting top PP time here, I’d buy your argument, but I’d be shocked if that happens if we are healthy.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The problem with the Zucker talk with Penguins fans is that there is a group of Penguins fans who is absolutely convinced that Zucker's 2022-2023 is reflective of his actual talent level, when it's completely out of line with any season he has had in recent memory. It's not just the injury plagued 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 seasons, but his years before that were also completely not in line with what he did in 2022-2023. There's nothing about his past performance that suggests Zucker's 2022-2023 was reflective of his ability, but rather it was an unsustainable season he very likely won't recreate.

Here are Zucker's 5v5 goals/60 and points/60 along with his xGF%Rel in the past 5 seasons:

2022-2023: 1.34 goals/60 and 2.06 points/60 with a +4.71% xGCF%Rel
2021-2022: 0.56 goals/60 and 1.57 points/60 with a +0.25% xGF%Rel
2020-2021: 0.92 goals/60 and 1.49 points/60 with a -5.05% xGF%Rel
2019-2020: 0.76 goals/60 and 1.97 points/60 with a -2.86% xGF%Rel
2018-2019: 0.63 goals/60 and 1.37 points/60 with a +3.35% xGF%Rel

There is nothing with his performance in the previous 4 years to suggest that last year is an accurate representation of Zucker's abilities. You have to go back to his peak 2017-2018 season to find a season where he had the play driving and production results that he had in 2022-2023.

Zucker performed on par with his 2 peak seasons in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 in his 2022-2023 season. But the fact that he did that at 31 when his peak years were at age 25 and 26 just suggests it's not going to be sustained at all going forward. It's not uncommon at all for players to have these random seasons where they perform to their abilities well beyond their peak, but it is almost always not sustained going forward. The Penguins got the best Zucker they could get last year, but the "best Zucker they could get" is something that Zucker hadn't done for 4 years before and likely won't do again.

That's why I have the issue with people trying to paint Zucker and Smith to be close. No, Zucker's best is on par with Smith's normal. Zucker's normal is clearly worse than Smith's normal.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

The Athletic player cards tell me that Reilly Smith is 1.75 times the defensive player that Jason Zucker is.

Where/how does Reilly Smith score his goals?

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don’t think their production is that far off.

Zucker is the better 5v5 player. Smith was a big part of the powerplays in Vegas and Florida.

Smith has been a better 5v5 producer for a long time.

Again, go look at the actual stats.

 

[Gurglesons]

Smith has been a better 5v5 producer for a long time.

Again, go look at the actual stats.

Zucker has the better 5v5 per 60 when comparing their careers.

 

[Jobeycool]

With the Pens current roster they will be awful on the 3rd line and once they get towards the end of the season the top lines will be tired as usual carrying all the work load trying to score goals.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Zucker has the better 5v5 per 60 when comparing their careers.

Zucker has not had a better 5v5 points/60 rate than Smith for 6 seasons.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

The problem with the Zucker talk with Penguins fans is that there is a group of Penguins fans who is absolutely convinced that Zucker's 2022-2023 is reflective of his actual talent level, when it's completely out of line with any season he has had in recent memory. It's not just the injury plagued 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 seasons, but his years before that were also completely not in line with what he did in 2022-2023. There's nothing about his past performance that suggests Zucker's 2022-2023 was reflective of his ability, but rather it was an unsustainable season he very likely won't recreate.

Here are Zucker's 5v5 goals/60 and points/60 along with his xGF%Rel in the past 5 seasons:

2022-2023: 1.34 goals/60 and 2.06 points/60 with a +4.71% xGCF%Rel
2021-2022: 0.56 goals/60 and 1.57 points/60 with a +0.25% xGF%Rel
2020-2021: 0.92 goals/60 and 1.49 points/60 with a -5.05% xGF%Rel
2019-2020: 0.76 goals/60 and 1.97 points/60 with a -2.86% xGF%Rel
2018-2019: 0.63 goals/60 and 1.37 points/60 with a +3.35% xGF%Rel

There is nothing with his performance in the previous 4 years to suggest that last year is an accurate representation of Zucker's abilities. You have to go back to his peak 2017-2018 season to find a season where he had the play driving and production results that he had in 2022-2023.

Zucker performed on par with his 2 peak seasons in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 in his 2022-2023 season. But the fact that he did that at 31 when his peak years were at age 25 and 26 just suggests it's not going to be sustained at all going forward. It's not uncommon at all for players to have these random seasons where they perform to their abilities well beyond their peak, but it is almost always not sustained going forward. The Penguins got the best Zucker they could get last year, but the "best Zucker they could get" is something that Zucker hadn't done for 4 years before and likely won't do again.

That's why I have the issue with people trying to paint Zucker and Smith to be close. No, Zucker's best is on par with Smith's normal. Zucker's normal is clearly worse than Smith's normal.

F it.....ill throw away my Jason Zucker jersey and get a Reilly Smith

I just noticed they have the same amount of letters in their full name......11

They are closer than you think

 

[Empoleon8771]

2022-2023: Both Smith and Zucker had a 2.06 5v5 points/60
2021-2022: 1.57 5v5 points/60 for Zucker, 2.19 5v5 points/60 for Smith
2020-2021: 1.49 5v5 points/60 for Zucker, 1.31 5v5 pints/60 for Smith
2019-2020: 1.97 5v5 points/60 for Zucker, 2.38 5v5 points/60 for Smith
2018-2019: 1.37 5v5 points/60 for Zucker, 1.91 5v5 points/60 for Smith
2017-2018: 2.10 5v5 points/60 for Zucker, 2.45 5v5 points/60 for Smith

Okay I was slightly wrong, Smith had a better or equal 5v5 points/60 rate as Zucker in 5 of 6 seasons, and the one that he didn't was a clear outlier season for Smith.

F it.....ill throw away my Jason Zucker jersey and get a Reilly Smith

I just noticed they have the same amount of letters in their full name......11

They are closer than you think

I like how I'm actually providing data to support my opinion and your arguments are just "you must be related to Reilly Smith" or "I'll throw away my Zucker jersey".

It really makes content on this board shitty if people who take the time to actually gather facts and data to support their arguments just get these lazy responses back.

 

[Gurglesons]

Zucker has not had a better 5v5 points/60 rate than Smith for 6 seasons.

Zucker had a higher 5v5 per 60 rate two seasons ago (20-21) and tied Smith this year while being significantly higher at goalscoring which was the exact point I made.