Salary Cap: Pens Off Season Thread: Pre Free Agency Shenanigans!

[Empoleon8771]

Counterpoint: FSG didn't wipe out pretty much the entire front office just to run back the same roster.

That said, I'll be surprised if Carter isn't on the roster when the season starts, just because Hextall completely handcuffed the Pens with that contract.

He probably will be but I do wonder if he'd consider waiving his NMC if Dubas went to him about it.

Could you convince Carter to waive his NMC to go retire as a Flyer? The Penguins would obviously have to pay to get out of his deal, but I don't think Carter is as married to Pittsburgh as someone like Rust would be.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I am going to die on this hill because it is the correct hill -

The bottom six weren't shit because of the way Sully used them

Sully used them that way because they were shit (that and the blue line supporting them)

If you want the bottom six to have bottom deployments, get a better bottom six that doesn't just get caved in and which needs hidden from the offensive zone because they suck there

I agree that the players mostly were bad. But the regression in McGinn/Blueger was pretty significant. A vicious cycle.

Carter singlehandedly hampered the team. A really bad defensive center cast as a defensive center. Really we should have just cut his minutes in half and given more to anyone else.

 

[Peat]

Since my point needs to be clearer -

I'm not advocating equal zone starts all around.

But you only have to compare the last two years' zone starts to notice 22-23 was particularly harsh for Carter and Blueger, which is what I assume people are on about. If they think it's just defensive assignments for the bottom six in general, that blatantly doesn't cause teams to miss the playoffs.

You will also notice Sid and Geno's numbers are very steady.

So clearly a better team can give the bottom six better - not great, just better than last year's - deployments while still catering to Sid and Geno.

And given the results of past years, Sully likes to do that, it can work regular season, etc.etc.

And my point as to why it didn't happen last year is the units were ass. Carter died, Blueger did his best to suggest the stats saying he's a product of ZAR are correct, and so on and so on.

Build non-ass units and watch the deployments revert. Easier said than done in the situation though...

 

[Peat]

But that's what I was suggesting in here with guys like Tanev, Blueger, Brown and Kampf though.

You want guys who can thrive in a defense heavy role in the bottom-6. It's not Sullivan's usage of the bottom-6 that is a problem, it's that Sullivan doesn't have a good collection of players to use the bottom-6 like that.

We are on the same page.

I just don't see anything in Kampf's numbers saying he actually thrives there.

I also think that Bart line flattered to decieve and underperformed come the big days, and I'm wary of building a L3 off of its quality profile as a result.

 

[tom_servo]

My only ask is that they don't sell futures at all until we see some games. I don't take for granted even a healthy roster to make any waves. Worst scenario possible (I think) is to trade picks/Pickering to bolster the roster from day 1 and the team still sucks. (Not that I think we're holding any blue chips)

Go with whatever you can cobble together for October and we'll see at the midway point.

 

[Pens x]

They missed the playoffs by 1 point last year after having massive goaltending and bottom-6 issues throughout the year.

They obviously shouldn't, but you could run back the same team next year and you probably make the playoffs.

They also missed the playoffs with a healthy top six which likely won’t be as lucky this season.

 

[Empoleon8771]

We are on the same page.

I just don't see anything in Kampf's numbers saying he actually thrives there.

I also think that Bart line flattered to decieve and underperformed come the big days, and I'm wary of building a L3 off of its quality profile as a result.

Yeah looking at his analytics, I thought they were better than what they actually are. He only had a 49.33% GF% and a 48.77% xGF% last year, I thought his numbers were better than that.

I think you ideally look for someone who can put up completely neutral relative results (both in GF% and xGF%) while getting that harsh defensive usage. Someone like Faksa has been doing that for years, but he doesn't have the offensive punch I'd want out of a 3C role.

Brown was doing that while he was in Ottawa, he had a +0.56 GF%Rel and a +0.21 xGF%Rel but was getting only 40% zone starts against tough competition. That's why he's so high on my list for guys I want this off-season.

 

[ChaosAgent]

My only ask is that they don't sell futures at all until we see some games. I don't take for granted even a healthy roster to make any waves. Worst scenario possible (I think) is to trade picks/Pickering to bolster the roster from day 1 and the team still sucks. (Not that I think we're holding any blue chips)

Go with whatever you can cobble together for October and we'll see at the midway point.

You have to pay higher prices at the deadline, though.

You can also get guys that we can flip if we're out of it. For that matter, if you don't extend Guentzel you can get a protected 1st + for him even as a rental.

 

[tom_servo]

You have to pay higher prices at the deadline, though.

You can also get guys that we can flip if we're out of it. For that matter, if you don't extend Guentzel you can get a protected 1st + for him even as a rental.

Don't care about the higher prices if you have some degree of evidence to rely on.

You're right about picking up guys and flipping them if necessary. As always it depends on the details.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Looking at the UFA center options, I think the only logical 3C options outside of Kampf are probably ERod and Haula. Haula hasn't been used in an ultra defensive role recently but he was used like that while in Minnesota back in the day. He spent most of last year playing wing with Hughes I believe, he was the faceoff guy for him because Hughes is awful at faceoffs.

I'd probably go ERod as my first choice and Kampf as my second choice, but Haula seems to be a decent option as well. Beyond those 3, I don't really see anyone who makes sense in the UFA market. Everyone else is either way too old (Bergeron, Toews and Staal) or doesn't fit what the Penguins would want out of their 3C.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Don't care about the higher prices if you have some degree of evidence to rely on.

You're right about picking up guys and flipping them if necessary. As always it depends on the details.

If, despite attempts to go for it, they look unlikely at the deadline I expect us to flip guys to recoup assets and the tear down to begin. Guentzel, Rakell and Pettersson would be the most valuable pieces and the team may press on Rust to waive his NMC.

 

[Kristopher Letang]

None of these players move me. I hope everyone is wrong.

 

[Andy99]

If, despite attempts to go for it, they look unlikely at the deadline I expect us to flip guys to recoup assets and the tear down to begin. Guentzel, Rakell and Pettersson would be the most valuable pieces and the team may press on Rust to waive his NMC.

I want to see some actual attempts to go for it though…a scorer on L2 to replace Zucker, a 1LD who can move the puck and skate with Letang, and a huge upgrade in goalie…not just shuffling mediocre players in the bottom six lol

 

[ChaosAgent]

None of these players move me. I hope everyone is wrong.

Who would have you moved? Moved to tears?

 

[KrisLetAngry]

@Empoleon8771

appreciating all the posts and names you bring up.

The Blake Wheeler one is interesting.
Whispers of buying him out etc.

I wouldn't mind taking his 8 million cap hit if we can shoot granlund the other way and put him beside Geno and let them have high O zone starts. I could see that line producing. It does take up a lot of our new found cap but if the plan is to contender and he doesn't cost a lot of assets there is some potential there.

This may end the hopes of a better top 4 D though in our line up.
I also thought Petry had 1 year left but damn 2 years. Don't know how I feel.


If Jeff Carter would waive and we could trade him @ 30 to 50% then give that cap hit to Frédéric (or whatever his name) that would be interesting as well.

I'm also fine if We just leave and accept him and give him a 4th line under 10 minutes role. I think Jeff Carter limited can offer us help. I'd rather not have him but if I'm forced to well he can be the 4th line RW.

I want to see some actual attempts to go for it though…a scorer on L2 to replace Zucker, a 1LD who can move the puck and skate with Letang, and a huge upgrade in goalie…not just shuffling mediocre players in the bottom six lol

Whos the 1 LD you would target?

 

[Gurglesons]

OEL buy out. Absolutely absurd.

 

[Andy99]

@Empoleon8771

appreciating all the posts and names you bring up.

The Blake Wheeler one is interesting.
Whispers of buying him out etc.

I wouldn't mind taking his 8 million cap hit if we can shoot granlund the other way and put him beside Geno and let them have high O zone starts. I could see that line producing. It does take up a lot of our new found cap but if the plan is to contender and he doesn't cost a lot of assets there is some potential there.

This may end the hopes of a better top 4 D though in our line up.
I also thought Petry had 1 year left but damn 2 years. Don't know how I feel.


If Jeff Carter would waive and we could trade him @ 30 to 50% then give that cap hit to Frédéric (or whatever his name) that would be interesting as well.

I'm also fine if We just leave and accept him and give him a 4th line under 10 minutes role. I think Jeff Carter limited can offer us help. I'd rather not have him but if I'm forced to well he can be the 4th line RW.



Whos the 1 LD you would target?

Probably Hanafin…

 

[Empoleon8771]

Wheeler is an instant no for me, not because he's not a good player but because he sounds like a straight up lockeroom cancer from everything that has come out of Winnipeg.

OEL buy out. Absolutely absurd.

LMFAO I love the Canucks.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Probably Hanafin…

He's the name I have come up with as well. I think Calgary ends up signing him. What are we trading and how much you think we will have to pay for the extension?

 

[AjaxTelamon]

I'd say it's more L2 that's the problem defensively than L1. That's why I've been advocating for a defensively responsible LW for Geno.

GCRak ended up a +7
GCRust ended up a +8

It's not anything special but they're fine. That's during a bad goaltending and sketchy blue line year too.

I'll reserve judgment with trying Rust on L3 until I see what the roster looks like.

Oh I agree, if we could rely on Sullivan to keep GCRak together all the time, we would only have a problem on L2, and that problem could in fact be solved by finding a modern day, prime Hagelin or Kunitz. And I am also fine with Rust or Granlund on L2 RW if they can get that LW.

This is really one of the most important roles to fill right now, they don't even need to score a ton, just hopefully not waste as many opportunities as past their prime Kunitz and Hagelin did. But filling it properly will allow L1 and L2 to both handle tougher assignments, and those easier assignments will help the bottom six a lot.

I don't know enough about Bunting's game to know if he can be a reasonable Kunitz impersonator, he never struck me as having the offensive touch of Kunitz or the really excellent positional defense and speed of Hagelin.

Has anyone watched him enough to know?

 

[KrisLetAngry]

OEL buy out. Absolutely absurd.

I can't believe it. His year prior I actually felt he was playing like a 6 million guy. This past year was bad. There is not a lot of cap savings with this buy out.

Nvm I thought there was more signing bonuses to the contract. I was wrong but still 2.5 million!

I just can't believe it

 

[Empoleon8771]

And before someone says it, no to OEL. He's a shell of what he once was.



This isn't even a guy that warrants a reclamation project contract. Any sort of acquisition with him is a bad idea. With that being said, I'm just mentally preparing to see him signed to replace Dumoulin now

 

[Gurglesons]

And before someone says it, no to OEL. He's a shell of what he once was.



This isn't even a guy that warrants a reclamation project contract. Any sort of acquisition with him is a bad idea. With that being said, I'm just mentally preparing to see him signed to replace Dumoulin now

He probably goes to Tampa and wins a cup.

 

[Turin]

Wheeler is old, declining and also a douche. No thanks.

 

[Sideline]

What happened to OEL? Can he not skate anymore?