Salary Cap: Pens Off Season Thread: Pre Free Agency Shenanigans!

[AuroraBorealis]

I'm with Empo. Kampf at 3.5m is ouchies. I don't think what's he done at Toronto merits a 2m bump from his last UFA deal. I'd like the player here but you're asking him to be a better player than he's been at 3.5m.

Also @Empoleon8771 that idea of putting Kampf and Granlund together is putting together one of the worst shooting lines in the NHL. That third guy would have to be one hell of a shooter to rescue them. I don't see that ending well, particularly for a 3rd line that most cost about 10m.

We'd be vulnerable during injuries in the top 6 for sure, because those guys can't fill in effectively. That plan could work if we get another healthy year out of L1 and L2 though. Not banking on it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm with Empo. Kampf at 3.5m is ouchies. I don't think what's he done at Toronto merits a 2m bump from his last UFA deal. I'd like the player here but you're asking him to be a better player than he's been at 3.5m.

Also @Empoleon8771 that idea of putting Kampf and Granlund together is putting together one of the worst shooting lines in the NHL. That third guy would have to be one hell of a shooter to rescue them. I don't see that ending well, particularly for a 3rd line that most cost about 10m.

Frederic did have 17 goals last year so I think he could fit for that. But yeah you'd need to find someone who can score goals and bring size to that line for the LW spot there.

I actually went on Capfriendly to see if it's possible and I was surprised to see you could (in theory) make it work. You could keep Granlund, but the consequence is that POJ would need to be on the 2nd pair. But I was able to make this lineup and still have $8 million in cap space to spend on the goalies:

Guentzel-Crosby-Garland
Rakell-Malkin-Rust
Frederic-Kampf-Granlund
O'Connor-Poehling-Carter
Extra C-Nylander

Pettersson-Letang
POJ-Petry
Smith-Rutta
Ruhwedel

We'd be vulnerable during injuries in the top 6 for sure, because those guys can't fill in effectively. That plan could work if we get another healthy year out of L1 and L2 though. Not banking on it.

I think you keep Nylander as an extra forward to sub into the top-6 in case of injuries to the top-6.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I think you keep Nylander as an extra forward to sub into the top-6 in case of injuries to the top-6.

For sure, but we'd be screwed at Center if that's what needs filling. It's kind of a luck dependant plan.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

If that line ended up as a net positive in +/- on the year then I'd take it. You can't ask for much more if you're gonna use them like slaves.
Let the top 6 - who are given the privileged usage - earn the surplus goal differential needed to get this team into the playoffs.
The bottom 6 just have to hold serve.

The bottom six won't be able to hold serve if Sullivan keeps asking so much out of them defensively. With our top 6 so inept defensively, and unable to handle tough assignments, it creates an unrealistic expectation that our bottom six should not only deal with the toughest assignments defensively, but also score. Carter and Granlund would not have been as terrible down the stretch last year if they got some easier assignments.

Top to bottom, winning teams not only play a better structured game, but they have top 6 players who actually defend. Look at what Mark Stone has done in Vegas, not to mention Karlsson, Stephenson, even Eichel has played well defensively for them.

But with the reality being Sullivan is going to use his bottom 6 like checkers, then we'll need to overpay for guys like Kampf who can actually handle it. And most importantly, they can't have a roster full of older, slowing, defensive black holes like Granlund, Rust, and Carter they try to use as checkers.

People keep advocating for Rust on L3, and if we had a time machine and could put 2017 Rust on it, that would be fine. But that player doesn't exist anymore.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The bottom six won't be able to hold serve if Sullivan keeps asking so much out of them defensively. With our top 6 so inept defensively, and unable to handle tough assignments, it creates an unrealistic expectation that our bottom six should not only deal with the toughest assignments defensively, but also score. Carter and Granlund would not have been as terrible down the stretch last year if they got some easier assignments.

I agree but to be fair, Granlund was a +1 at 5v5 and had solid analytics in the role. He failed at the scoring part but he actually did fine at the not getting scored on part.

He had only a 1.98 GA/60 at 5v5, the ugly part was that he only had a 2.23 GF/60 at 5v5.

 

[Peat]

Frederic did have 17 goals last year so I think he could fit for that. But yeah you'd need to find someone who can score goals and bring size to that line for the LW spot there.

I actually went on Capfriendly to see if it's possible and I was surprised to see you could (in theory) make it work. You could keep Granlund, but the consequence is that POJ would need to be on the 2nd pair. But I was able to make this lineup and still have $8 million in cap space to spend on the goalies:

Guentzel-Crosby-Garland
Rakell-Malkin-Rust
Frederic-Kampf-Granlund
O'Connor-Poehling-Carter
Extra C-Nylander

Pettersson-Letang
POJ-Petry
Smith-Rutta
Ruhwedel

Would you be happy to see that at the start of the season?

 

[SEALBound]

I'm going to preface this with I hate this idea, but I have a feeling that the Penguins might want to keep Granlund in a 3rd line role but try to surround him with complementary pieces to make a defensive 3rd line work (to the best it can). He has had success in a defensive line before, his best seasons were when he was playing with Zucker and Koivu while getting 40% offensive zone starts. I have also seen Leafs fans say that Dubas had wanted to acquire Granlund in the past.

If you could recreate the mix somewhat of that Zucker-Koivu-Granlund line, could that work? I'm skeptical but I have a feeling they might try that. Something like Frederic-Kampf-Granlund or Comtois-Kampf-Granlund could fit that.

Also while Granlund massively failed the eye test and production while with the Penguins, he actually wasn't bad analytically with them. He finished with a +2.10 xGF%rel driven by really strong defensive metrics in his 20 games with the Penguins, that's not bad.

I hate the idea because keeping Granlund likely prevents the Penguins from being able to replace Zucker with a top-6 guy, so any sort of decision to keep him is one I hate. But I could imagine a fairly realistic scenario where the Penguins want to give Granlund a bit more time to see what he can do in a 3rd line role.

Comtois may not even get qualified so he could be a free pick up for us. I think he's like Kubalik last year - an underperforming RFA who is going to break out with a new team.

If you are keeping Granlund and getting Kampf, I think ERod would make sense to look into. Not only can he be a fill-in center when needed, but he's a shoot-first guy that might go well with Granlund.

If you are looking to complement Granlund, a guy like ERod or Sprong is who we should be looking for.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Would you be happy to see that at the start of the season?

No but I'd at least understand their thought process if they decided to try that.

I do like that top-6 and I like Frederic and Kampf on L3, I just want to see them move Granlund because you can't address all of the holes on the roster with keeping Granlund. But playing Granlund on that kind of line is something I can see the logic behind.

My ideal lineup is very similar to that, it just has Granlund moved out, Connor Brown brought in and the money saved being spent on Soucy to play on the 2nd pair.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

The bottom six won't be able to hold serve if Sullivan keeps asking so much out of them defensively. With our top 6 so inept defensively, and unable to handle tough assignments, it creates an unrealistic expectation that our bottom six should not only deal with the toughest assignments defensively, but also score. Carter and Granlund would not have been as terrible down the stretch last year if they got some easier assignments.

Top to bottom, winning teams not only play a better structured game, but they have top 6 players who actually defend. Look at what Mark Stone has done in Vegas, not to mention Karlsson, Stephenson, even Eichel has played well defensively for them.

But with the reality being Sullivan is going to use his bottom 6 like checkers, then we'll need to overpay for guys like Kampf who can actually handle it. And most importantly, they can't have a roster full of older, slowing, defensive black holes like Granlund, Rust, and Carter they try to use as checkers.

People keep advocating for Rust on L3, and if we had a time machine and could put 2017 Rust on it, that would be fine. But that player doesn't exist anymore.

I'd say it's more L2 that's the problem defensively than L1. That's why I've been advocating for a defensively responsible LW for Geno.

GCRak ended up a +7
GCRust ended up a +8

It's not anything special but they're fine. That's during a bad goaltending and sketchy blue line year too.

I'll reserve judgment with trying Rust on L3 until I see what the roster looks like.

 

[pistolpete11]

That report/rumor/speculation is a little concerning to me.

Kampf isn't good enough offensively for 3C and will probably be too expensive for 4C. He'd be fine if they had a Kessel on L3, but Granlund ain't it. He'd also be fine if they had some extra money to splurge on a 4C. They might be able to do that, but it'd make me nervous without filling in 2LW, 3C, and G first.

Like the player and it makes sense based on the role he'd be asked to play here, but doesn't address the biggest needs on the team.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I agree but to be fair, Granlund was a +1 at 5v5 and had solid analytics in the role. He failed at the scoring part but he actually did fine at the not getting scored on part.

He had only a 1.98 GA/60 at 5v5, the ugly part was that he only had a 2.23 GF/60 at 5v5.

I'm worried about the sustainability of that, based on his defending in Nashville. But maybe he'd embrace the role again.
He was a good defensive player during his prime.

 

[Gurglesons]

No but I'd at least understand their thought process if they decided to try that.

I do like that top-6 and I like Frederic and Kampf on L3, I just want to see them move Granlund because you can't address all of the holes on the roster with keeping Granlund. But playing Granlund on that kind of line is something I can see the logic behind.

My ideal lineup is very similar to that, it just has Granlund moved out, Connor Brown brought in and the money saved being spent on Soucy to play on the 2nd pair.

If their thought process is missing the playoffs that’s a great roster that has no flexibility cap wise.

 

[Lara Emily]

I'd love to see them take a stab at Killorn if the price is right

 

[Empoleon8771]

If their thought process is missing the playoffs that’s a great roster that has no flexibility cap wise.

Well that's a stupid comment.

My ideal lineup has that lineup but with Granlund and POJ out for Brown and Soucy in. Is that change alone going to make that team a playoff team?

 

[Gurglesons]

Well that's a stupid comment.

Not really. You have 5 forwards making over 5 mil after Sid and Geno. A bunch of players you just signed and a defense that is probably the worst in the Metro.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I'd prefer ERod over Kampf. He defends like him, but scores more. Wouldn't be surprised if the price was similar.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not really. You have 5 forwards making over 5 mil after Sid and Geno. A bunch of players you just signed and a defense that is probably the worst in the Metro.

No, it is a stupid comment.

Again, my ideal roster has Granlund and POJ out for Soucy and Brown in. Is that change alone enough to make the playoffs? Because if it's not, then no roster anyone has been throwing out in here is good enough to make the playoffs.

If you can't make the playoffs with this roster:

Guentzel-Crosby-Garland
Rakell-Malkin-Rust
Frederic-Kampf-Brown
O'Connor-Poehling-Carter

Pettersson-Letang
Soucy-Petry
Smith-Rutta

Then no roster that is being proposed in these threads is going to be good enough to make the playoffs. At that point, why are we even pretending the Penguins are contenders anymore?

 

[xlm34]

I just have PTSD from the Tanev and McGinn signings where you pay the UFA premium for bottom six guys.

Granted I know nothing about Kampf so maybe he does warrant that type of deal.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

No, it is a stupid comment.

Again, my ideal roster has Granlund and POJ out for Soucy and Brown in. Is that change alone enough to make the playoffs? Because if it's not, then no roster anyone has been throwing out in here is good enough to make the playoffs.

The team is just unlikely to make the playoffs in general.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The team is just unlikely to make the playoffs in general.

They missed the playoffs by 1 point last year after having massive goaltending and bottom-6 issues throughout the year.

They obviously shouldn't, but you could run back the same team next year and you probably make the playoffs.

 

[Peat]

No but I'd at least understand their thought process if they decided to try that.

I do like that top-6 and I like Frederic and Kampf on L3, I just want to see them move Granlund because you can't address all of the holes on the roster with keeping Granlund. But playing Granlund on that kind of line is something I can see the logic behind.

My ideal lineup is very similar to that, it just has Granlund moved out, Connor Brown brought in and the money saved being spent on Soucy to play on the 2nd pair.

I don't think I'd understand it tbh. I don't see a coherent identity to that team, and I don't see that team as either rebuilding or trying to make noise. It's just plastering over the holes from last year in the cheapest way with no attempt to improve.

Could you make a potentially interesting third line around Granlund as a third liner? Maybe. I think you'd want the other guys to either have the shooting skill to mesh with him, or the playmaking ability to carve open opportunities together. I don't think Kampf fits that. Really, I'm not sure how to make such a line work without either spending too much money or getting some unlikely bargains.

For Granlund to remain on this team requires one of the following things imo

a) Use in the top six where that cap hit belongs
b) Using our other assets to gain enough undercosted players that he can have some good players to play off in the bottom six without sacrificing on necessary strength elsewhere
c) A mistake

 

[Gurglesons]

No, it is a stupid comment.

Again, my ideal roster has Granlund and POJ out for Soucy and Brown in. Is that change alone enough to make the playoffs? Because if it's not, then no roster anyone has been throwing out in here is good enough to make the playoffs.

If you can't make the playoffs with this roster:

Guentzel-Crosby-Garland
Rakell-Malkin-Rust
Frederic-Kampf-Brown
O'Connor-Poehling-Carter

Pettersson-Letang
Soucy-Petry
Smith-Rutta

Then no roster that is being proposed in these threads is going to be good enough to make the playoffs. At that point, why are we even pretending the Penguins are contenders anymore?

This is a much different roster than the one you posted.

The roster you posted originally looks like an NHL23 roster with no rhyme or reason to player types and a defense that is without question the worst in the metro.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

They missed the playoffs by 1 point last year after having massive goaltending and bottom-6 issues throughout the year.

They obviously shouldn't, but you could run back the same team next year and you probably make the playoffs.

Maybe. We were blessed with the 13 man-games lost in the entire top 6.
Next year I expect that to jump to like 70+.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I just have PTSD from the Tanev and McGinn signings where you pay the UFA premium for bottom six guys.

Granted I know nothing about Kampf so maybe he does warrant that type of deal.

I mean the Tanev contract was gleefully taken by Seattle who is a successful team. He is a good player who we could use right now.

The regression in "the Brockstar" last year was strange and irritating. He had stretches where he ran hot as a way above average bottom sixer.

 

[Gurglesons]

Maybe. We were blessed with the 13 man-games lost in the entire top 6.
Next year I expect that to jump to like 70+.

The defensive injuries were a major reason we missed the playoffs though.