Salary Cap: Pens Off Season Thread: Pre Free Agency Shenanigans!

[Peat]

Jake is absolutely worth paying to keep. Look at the trade returns you usually get for that kind of player. It's like late first, prospect, young nhl guy.

We're not winning a Jake trade.

The only reason to trade a Jake is if you're blowing it up and that route seems unlikely.

The thing about trading 30 year old elite complimentary guys is it's not about winning the trade.

It's about cutting your losses.

I think back to the Kessel trade at times like this. Did we secure value equal to Kessel's prior season? Not even remotely. Did we miss the player Kessel had been, which the trade came nowhere near compensating us for? You betcha. Did we do well not to have Kessel's contract on the books for the next three seasons? Indubitably.

I would also argue we were a better team in general for just having a better fit and shake-up.

Now... Jake Guentzel doesn't scream impending decline like Kessel did, although he did have a concerning downtick. He's a better fit in the locker room and on the ice at 5v5. But you could argue he's part of a culture that doesn't fight for the puck like it did. That he's not a good fit on the PP. And while I know the long term isn't a huge part of planning here, expecting Guentzel in his 30s to be as good as Tkachuk or Gaudreau (recent LW recipients of 9m+) is a risky proposition.

If we had a long window left, I'd be banging the drum hard for taking what we can get. Since it might only be two years, I'm less so... but I'm still interested, because I still want to see a harder edge and a better PP and I don't think Jake fits that well.

 

[Zbynek]

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#78 in the league baby!

Hellebuyck has a 31 goal difference and Tristan has a -2.8 and you're telling me the Pens don't get into the playoffs on that change alone?

 

[Empoleon8771]

I still want Hellebuyck over any other goalie because he’s clearly the best goalie available, but I do think there is a legitimate discussion to have there regarding cost to acquire him vs some of the other options.

I wish Winnipeg would accept Granlund as a part of the Hellebuyck deal, being able to dump Granlund in that deal makes it by far the most appealing option to me. Granlund, Pickering and #14 for Hellebuyck with an extension would be an absolutely incredible outcome. I just don’t know that Winnipeg would agree to take Granlund on as a cap dump.

That’s what makes the Gibson idea so appealing to me, you can dump Granlund in that deal and still likely get Gibson for a reasonable cost. If it was just Gibson on his own (meaning not involving Granlund), I’d be substantially less interested in him.

 

[Zbynek]

I still want Hellebuyck over any other goalie because he’s clearly the best goalie available, but I do think there is a legitimate discussion to have there regarding cost to acquire him vs some of the other options.

I wish Winnipeg would accept Granlund as a part of the Hellebuyck deal, being able to dump Granlund in that deal makes it by far the most appealing option to me. Granlund, Pickering and #14 for Hellebuyck with an extension would be an absolutely incredible outcome. I just don’t know that Winnipeg would agree to take Granlund on as a cap dump.

That’s what makes the Gibson idea so appealing to me, you can dump Granlund in that deal and still likely get Gibson for a reasonable cost. If it was just Gibson on his own (meaning not involving Granlund), I’d be substantially less interested in him.

On paper Winnipeg will need a replacement for PLD / Scheifele so Granlund actually makes sense, the question remains how much do the Pens need to add onto that, and do the Jets prefer that package of 14OA+Pickering over what else is being offered.

Plus... Granlund is giving Jets vibes to me. He belongs in Winnipeg, naturally.

 

[Pens x]

Man, lsome of you have some downright whack opinions on things.

Says the guy that thinks we should bring back Jarry.

 

[Pens x]

I will be shocked if Dubas doesn’t trade the first round draft pick. We have so few assets that he kind of has to if he wants to make a splash. If he truly wants the team to have a shot, it is an absolute must. We can’t continue on as is. Either tear it all down or go for it - the half ass, purgatory approach over the last several years has to stop.

Plus, the front office is in shambles right now during the transition to Dubas’ boys. Lots of people were fired and a lot of current people will be out of jobs soon. They would eff up the draft pick anyways.

 

[Zbynek]

I will be shocked if Dubas doesn’t trade the first round draft pick. We have so few assets that he kind of has to if he wants to make a splash. If he truly wants the team to have a shot, it is an absolute must. We can’t continue on as is. Either tear it all down or go for it - the half ass, purgatory approach over the last several years has to stop.

Plus, the front office is in shambles right now during the transition to Dubas’ boys. Lots of people were fired and a lot of current people will be out of jobs soon. They would eff up the draft pick anyways.

Yea drafting a player at 14 makes absolute no sense for this roster with our core and their age, and even less sense when you factor in our cap right now. This is the most flexible and fluid cap situation entering UFA I think i can ever remember during the Sid/Geno era. Something is coming in the next week.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

The thing about trading 30 year old elite complimentary guys is it's not about winning the trade.

It's about cutting your losses.

I think back to the Kessel trade at times like this. Did we secure value equal to Kessel's prior season? Not even remotely. Did we miss the player Kessel had been, which the trade came nowhere near compensating us for? You betcha. Did we do well not to have Kessel's contract on the books for the next three seasons? Indubitably.

I would also argue we were a better team in general for just having a better fit and shake-up.

Now... Jake Guentzel doesn't scream impending decline like Kessel did, although he did have a concerning downtick. He's a better fit in the locker room and on the ice at 5v5. But you could argue he's part of a culture that doesn't fight for the puck like it did. That he's not a good fit on the PP. And while I know the long term isn't a huge part of planning here, expecting Guentzel in his 30s to be as good as Tkachuk or Gaudreau (recent LW recipients of 9m+) is a risky proposition.

If we had a long window left, I'd be banging the drum hard for taking what we can get. Since it might only be two years, I'm less so... but I'm still interested, because I still want to see a harder edge and a better PP and I don't think Jake fits that well.

I think it depends on how the season goes.
If we're clearly trending towards the playoffs at the trade deadline, keep him and sign the extension.
If we're clearly going to miss, trade him.
If we're not sure, keep him, but don't sign the extension unless we make the playoffs and win a round.

 

[Ulf5]

NHL Goalie Statistics

NHL Goalie Analytics, Expected Goals, Expected Rebounds

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#78 in the league baby!

Hellebuyck has a 31 goal difference and Tristan has a -2.8 and you're telling me the Pens don't get into the playoffs on that change alone?

According to your chart, Jack Campbell had a better gsaa than Hellebuyck in the playoffs.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

According to your chart, Jack Campbell had a better gsaa than Hellebuyck in the playoffs.

What's wrong with that? Campbell was .961 this playoffs lol. Only 4 games though.
Hellebuyck kinda sucked.

 

[Zbynek]

According to your chart, Jack Campbell had a better gsaa than Hellebuyck in the playoffs.

Small sample size (4 and 5 GP) plus the whole weird platoon thing going on in Edmonton.

I think the better comparison here is the regular season goal difference with Hellebuyck's +31 goal difference in 64 GP versus Jarry's -2.8 in 47 GP.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I don't want to spend much -- asset-wise or cap-wise -- on a goalie. They're too much of a gamble. Asset-wise, it's cheapest to stay with Jarry. But I think the Pens need to move on from him. The next cheapest in spending assets would be to sign a UFA goalie.

Side note: I reaaaallllly wanted the Pens to sign Ales Stezka. I think he'll do well.

Ullmark and Gibson seem like they could be had for the least (trade wise) with Ullmark having the lower cap hit of the two. If the Pens acquire a "starter" then I'm okay with having CDS as the backup. But if the Pens get a 1A/1B type then CDS needs to go.

I think my preferences are as follows (top of the list is my most preferred):

Ullmark + CDS ($6.8M)
Vejmelka + UPL ($3.6M)
Gibson + CDS ($8.2M)
Other 1A/1B Trade/UFA Tandem (<$9M)
Hellebuyck + CDS ($8.0M)
Markstrom + CDS ($7.8M)

 

[pistolpete11]

The thing with Hellebuyck is whether he would sign an extension with the Pens or not. If he would (and it's not outrageous), I'd move A LOT to get him. I'd even add POJ/Smith to the 1st+Pickering+Granlund package. If he's not, then there's not a reasonable offer I think the Pens could make for only 1 year of him. He wants out of Winnipeg because he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild, so I doubt he'd sign a long term extension with a team barreling down towards a rebuild in a few years.

Gibson has been my guy since the Pens' season ended and that's still where I'm at. I realize the risk, but he's a talented goalie who just needs to be put into a better position and would likely come cheap. If he doesn't come cheap then fine, move onto something else. I don't think he's going to come here and turn back into a Vezina candidate or anything, but I think bare minimum is he'll be solid.

If that doesn't work out either, then I'd move onto one of the Boston goalies. I think they are likely both overrated to a degree simply because of how good Boston was last year. They aren't going to get that level of defensive play from this team, but I still think they are good goalies.

Plan A : Hellebuyck IF he's willing to sign and extension
Plan B : Gibson IF he comes cheap
Plan C : Boston goalie
Plan D : Bring back Jarry and find an upgrade on CDS, preferably a younger guy who's maybe got some untapped potential and could challenge Jarry for starts instead of playing just because it's a back-to-back.

 

[pistolpete11]

The move with Jake was/is to package him for an upgrade IMO. Trading him for futures is not gonna happen given the stance that FSG and Dubas have taken on trying to compete for a Cup.

I suggested trading him for Eichel when he got moved. I suggested trading him for Tkachuk when he got moved. I don't know if there's a guy like that available this season. One of Toronto guys would probably be the closest I've seen rumored, but the only thing tougher to swallow than the $11M owed to Marner/Matthews would be what Dubas would give them on their next deals.

 

[Pens x]

Pens were ranked sixth by the athletic for teams in the best salary cap situation. No excuses, Harry Potter.

6. Pittsburgh Penguins

2023-24 salaries: $63,291,842
RFAs estimate: $5,723,300
LTIR candidates: None
Dead money deals: Jack Johnson buyout ($916,667)
Notable unsigned UFAs: Jason Zucker, Brian Dumoulin, Danton Heinen, Josh Archibald, Dmitry Kulikov, Nick Bonino
Problem contract: Mikael Granlund
Projected cap space: $14,484,858

It’s easy to imagine Kyle Dubas, in his first offseason with Pittsburgh, having more money to spend than the listed number. Mikael Granlund should be a buyout candidate, and teams are entitled to walk away from RFAs.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Who's everyone's favorite targets at each position?

Mine are
Center: ROR
Wing: Bertuzzi
Defense: Karlsson
Goalie: Hellebuyck

Unfortunately neither ROR or Bert would satisfy Sully's need for speed, so we're probably targeting neither.

It would be interesting to see what a guy like Karlsson could do here if we decided to swing for the fences, moved Petry, and San Jose retained some. Rolling out Letang or Karlsson for 90% of every game would be fun as hell to watch.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

I think I’m on board with Gibson for cheap as a best case scenario.
I get that #14OA isn’t a contributor for a couple seasons, but we have to have something in the pipeline, especially at Center, for the near future. It would be nice to have Moore or Danielson ready in 2 to 3 years when Crosby and or Malkin retire, or as a guy who can allow us to move Malkin to the wing to extend his value.

 

[Gurglesons]

Who's everyone's favorite targets at each position?

Mine are
Center: ROR
Wing: Bertuzzi
Defense: Karlsson
Goalie: Hellebuyck

Unfortunately neither ROR or Bert would satisfy Sully's need for speed, so we're probably targeting neither.

It would be interesting to see what a guy like Karlsson could do here if we decided to swing for the fences, moved Petry, and San Jose retained some. Rolling out Letang or Karlsson for 90% of every game would be fun as hell to watch.

Center: are any reportedly available?
Wing: Iafallo or Arvidsson
Defense: Gryz or Soucy
Goalie: Gibson

 

[Andy99]

I think it depends on how the season goes.
If we're clearly trending towards the playoffs at the trade deadline, keep him and sign the extension.
If we're clearly going to miss, trade him.
If we're not sure, keep him, but don't sign the extension unless we make the playoffs and win a round.

I mean if they’re playing well and so is he, and they get into the POs, you can keep him as a rental but no way should the team sign a long term extension w Jake…if he’s agreeable to a two-year extension that fits our window, then do that…otherwise he should move on…I just hate that we won’t be getting anything in return for him

 

[Andy99]

The move with Jake was/is to package him for an upgrade IMO. Trading him for futures is not gonna happen given the stance that FSG and Dubas have taken on trying to compete for a Cup.

I suggested trading him for Eichel when he got moved. I suggested trading him for Tkachuk when he got moved. I don't know if there's a guy like that available this season. One of Toronto guys would probably be the closest I've seen rumored, but the only thing tougher to swallow than the $11M owed to Marner/Matthews would be what Dubas would give them on their next deals.

i mean if you could swing Jake for Marner, we could afford to cover the difference in salary…doesn’t sound like Matthews would be on the move…that’s a move I would do, and even Nylander but I don’t think that helps Toronto as much

 

[chethejet]

Since Jarry is out due to health reasons apparently, Pens need to buyout Granlund or include him with a package to the Jets. Actually expand the deal with the Jets for the goalie, Appleton and Dillon and Pens sending Petts, first, number one last year and pick from moving Petry to Detroit for a second and include that number 2 this year to the Jets. Money is 12 million coming in and with Petry trade, 10 million out and the Granlund buyout adding 5 million. Leaves the Pens 23 million to add a RD, 3rd RW and if not Zucker, a LW with grit, size and skill enough to upgrade style to be more balanced roster that Sullivan has to utilize now.
Jets get Petts, 14th pick, Detroits 2nd pick, Pens top pick last year. Pens get goalie, Dillon and Appleton.

Jake Sid RR
Zucker? Geno Rust
DOC Appleton ?
Poehling Poulin Nylander

 

[Peat]

I think it depends on how the season goes.
If we're clearly trending towards the playoffs at the trade deadline, keep him and sign the extension.
If we're clearly going to miss, trade him.
If we're not sure, keep him, but don't sign the extension unless we make the playoffs and win a round.

I think it'd be pretty darn brave of Dubas to make his first big move as Pens GM to be holding onto the team's most valuable player through the season and risk losing him for nothing. I'd be surprised if that's how it goes.



Similarly, I'd be pretty surprised if Toronto are willing to trade big with us right now. Optics would be really bad for them if it went better for us than for them.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Feels like it makes alot of sense for the Pens to trade the 14th for some combination of Ullmark/Hall/Grzelyck and then the Bruins using the 14th to get PLD. Bruins have no cap space and are potentially losing their top-2 centres.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

What I like about Gibson (and Markstrom to a lesser extent) is that he's cost controlled for 4 years, has shown he can be a top-tier goalie with a decent team and won't cost the 14th pick.

If the Pens can get a goalie AND keep the 14th would be huge. They could use it for another player or even just make the pick and help out the prospect pool.

IMO, big game hunting for Helly makes no sense.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

The move with Jake was/is to package him for an upgrade IMO. Trading him for futures is not gonna happen given the stance that FSG and Dubas have taken on trying to compete for a Cup.

I suggested trading him for Eichel when he got moved. I suggested trading him for Tkachuk when he got moved. I don't know if there's a guy like that available this season. One of Toronto guys would probably be the closest I've seen rumored, but the only thing tougher to swallow than the $11M owed to Marner/Matthews would be what Dubas would give them on their next deals.

I would totally do Marner for Jake.

But some context:

- Would Tor do this with the justification that "Jake is a 2 time Cup winner that scores in the playoffs"?
- Pitt likely wouldn't ever part with Jake. He's stapled to Sid and this org/coach tends to do what Sid prefers