Salary Cap: Pens Off Season Thread: Pre Free Agency Shenanigans!

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Empoleon8771

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I think what it comes down to is that I'm totally fine with waiving Ruhwedel and trying to upgrade, I just don't understand why you'd pick POJ as the replacement. Why not re-sign Kulikov for like $1.5 million a year to have him be the #7D and then fill a need with trading POJ? As a matter of fact, I'd be extremely happy with re-signing Kulikov for $1.5 million and telling Ruhwedel to piss off. That $700k extra is likely not going to impact filling out the other needs on the roster.

There are just so many options out there in UFA that would either be equal players and bring a more needed element (someone like Harrington or Beaulieu) or a player you can get for a bit more money and would be a solid upgrade (someone like Kulikov or Mikkola) that I don't know why you'd even throw out POJ as an option there.
 
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Pancakes

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Our defense is fine. We just need to bring in a top 4 LD.

If you really wanted to get crazy you could say screw that and just play POJ and Ty Smith but I think there's issues with that approach unless you think POJ can be a reliable pker/top 4 dman.
 

Gurglesons

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I think what it comes down to is that I'm totally fine with waiving Ruhwedel and trying to upgrade, I just don't understand why you'd pick POJ as the replacement. Why not re-sign Kulikov for like $1.5 million a year to have him be the #7D and then fill a need with trading POJ? As a matter of fact, I'd be extremely happy with re-signing Kulikov for $1.5 million and telling Ruhwedel to piss off. That $700k extra is likely not going to impact filling out the other needs on the roster.

There are just so many options out there in UFA that would either be equal players and bring a more needed element (someone like Harrington or Beaulieu) or a player you can get for a bit more money and would be a solid upgrade (someone like Kulikov or Mikkola) that I don't know why you'd even throw out POJ as an option there.

Because I don’t think POJ has value.
 

PensandCaps

Beddy Tlueger
May 22, 2015
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Ruhwedel doesn't "suck" but you don't gotta defend such a bland vanilla #7/#8 Dman, lol.

No way he should be getting a top 6 amount of games. He's not good at anything. Fine emergency #8 guy.
 
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Empoleon8771

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Ruhwedel doesn't "suck" but you don't gotta defend such a bland vanilla #7/#8 Dman, lol.

No way he should be getting a top 6 amount of games. He's not good at anything. Fine emergency #8 guy.

Literally no one is defending him, I'm just saying he has a negligible impact on the game :laugh:

I just don't want to keep POJ as a healthy scratch because Ruhwedel is an unacceptable #7 option.
 

PensandCaps

Beddy Tlueger
May 22, 2015
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Literally no one is defending him, I'm just saying he has a negligible impact on the game :laugh:

I just don't want to keep POJ as a healthy scratch because Ruhwedel is an unacceptable #7 option.
I don't think POJ is someone you gotta worry about getting consistent playing time or not. He can sit. Besides, would he even sit?
 
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Empoleon8771

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I don't think POJ is someone you gotta worry about getting consistent playing time or not. He can sit. Besides, would he even sit?

It's not even that, I just think you're way better off trading him to address the forward depth and then signing some guy like Kulikov to be the #7D if you're not happy with Ruhwedel as the #7D.
 

Ugene Magic

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We are at the.....
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Offseason.
 

Empoleon8771

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"there's two areas where he's consistently been around or slightly below average over the last five years, cross-slot chances and breakaways"

Mildly scary stuff for a Pens fan although Jarry and Desmith have virtually identical rush chances faced stats to Hellebuyck according to NST so allegedly wouldn't be coming to a worse environment there (I can't help but wonder about those).

I think the cross slot is the big one. Pens tendency to try and overload creates a lot of slot line plays. Jarry and DeSmith move quick. Scramble goalies. Might be wrong, but feels like the Pens either need to change how they play or get a guy who can do that.

Apparently Adin Hill is also bad at slot line chances if up high, but good at good at low slot chances. Swayman also bad at slot line chances (and deflections). Wish I had access to these stats to see what chances the Pens gave up

Worries over whether John Gibson would adjust to having a lesser workload. Good news! We can give him work, just less brutal.

Back to the goalie talk for a bit, the part I'm debating more and more regarding the goalies is whether there is a better way to use #14 overall to improve the team now and going forward over trading it for a goalie. I think you have a lot of options, the main ones being:

1. Trade Pickering and #14 for Hellebuyck
2. Trade #14 for Swayman/Ullmark and likely another cap casualty piece from Boston
3. Trade Pickering and Granlund for Gibson
4. Go the UFA route with goalies (probably something like Jarry-Varlamov, Jarry-Andersen or Andersen-Hill)

There just seems to be a ton of factors here that aren't related to what goalie the Penguins are getting back, but rather the assets they're trading in the deals. For example, if you did #3, you get a goalie that could potential solve all your goaltending woes with Gibson (with risks of course) and get out of Granlund's deal, while still having #14 as either a win-now trade chip or to try to draft the next centerpiece for your next generation Penguins core. That's a great option.

It sounds backwards, but I think the UFA option is the worst because it eliminates the possibility of getting good value in a trade. I think most people would rather get players for free in free agency over spending assets, but the UFA goalie market is so barren that I'd much rather do Pickering and Granlund for Gibson or #14 for Swayman and DeBrusk over signing Jarry and Varlamov for free.

The Hellebuyck trade is the toughest for me to gauge, because he's clearly the best goalie and would be a major difference maker if you got him, but you're literally emptying the bank (both in terms of assets and cap space long term) to get him. You still need to get rid of Granlund and set yourself up for the future, and you have literally nothing to do that. I want Hellebuyck on this team so badly, but is the difference between him and Gibson the equivalent of #14 plus getting out of Granlund's deal?
 
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K Fleur

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I think for varying reasons POJ/Ty Smith/Ruhwedel/Friedman all have about the same value right now.

Which is none.
 
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3ladesof5teel

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I think for varying reasons POJ/Ty Smith/Ruhwedel/Friedman all have about the same value right now.

Which is none.

That's not true and as @Josey Wales said those young dmen typically hold some value. Especially ones with pedigree.

Ty Smith is 23 years old, that's extremely young for a dman and I would be shocked if there wasn't at least 5 GMs out there that would show quite a bit of interest
 

Empoleon8771

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This has been mentioned before by people who want to move on from Jarry, but I just looked at Jarry's career splits and man he becomes shitty after December:
  • October: 15 games, .924 save%
  • November: 32 games, .924 save%
  • December: 33 games, .928 save%
  • January: 35 games, .906 save%
  • February: 27 games, .905 save%
  • March: 38 games, .906 save%
  • April: 22 games, .906 save%
I think I saw the post in the context of "he sucks after February", but frankly you can reasonably say his stats are inflated with terrific performances early in the season. Even if you only look at his great seasons, these trends still exist:

2021-2022:
  • October: 6 games, .926 save%
  • November: 12 games, .944 save%
  • December: 6 games, .910 save%
  • January: 12 games, .910 save%
  • February: 7 games, .901 save%
  • March: 10 games, .923 save%
  • April: 5 games, .902 save%
2019-2020:
  • October: 3 games, .939 save%
  • November: 6 games, .923 save%
  • December: 9 games, .947 save%
  • January: 8 games, .906 save%
  • February: 6 games, .909 save%
  • March: 1 games, .833 save%
Even in the season where he shared the load with Murray, his numbers took a pretty sharp decline after December.
 
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Gurglesons

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That's not true and as @Josey Wales said those young dmen typically hold some value. Especially ones with pedigree.

Ty Smith is 23 years old, that's extremely young for a dman and I would be shocked if there wasn't at least 5 GMs out there that would show quite a bit of interest

I don’t think it is far from the truth.

Ty Smith and POJ are the type of pieces that shake loose on the waiver wire or get moved for nothing all the time. Ethan Bear, Dermott, sometimes it’s a Forsling.

They have much more value to us than any other team right now.
 

Peat

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Jun 14, 2016
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This has been mentioned before by people who want to move on from Jarry, but I just looked at Jarry's career splits and man he becomes shitty after December:
  • October: 15 games, .924 save%
  • November: 32 games, .924 save%
  • December: 33 games, .928 save%
  • January: 35 games, .906 save%
  • February: 27 games, .905 save%
  • March: 38 games, .906 save%
  • April: 22 games, .906 save%
I think I saw the post in the context of "he sucks after February", but frankly you can reasonably say his stats are inflated with terrific performances early in the season. Even if you only look at his great seasons, these trends still exist:

2021-2022:
  • October: 6 games, .926 save%
  • November: 12 games, .944 save%
  • December: 6 games, .910 save%
  • January: 12 games, .910 save%
  • February: 7 games, .901 save%
  • March: 10 games, .923 save%
  • April: 5 games, .902 save%
2019-2020:
  • October: 3 games, .939 save%
  • November: 6 games, .923 save%
  • December: 9 games, .947 save%
  • January: 8 games, .906 save%
  • February: 6 games, .909 save%
  • March: 1 games, .833 save%
Even in the season where he shared the load with Murray, his numbers took a pretty sharp decline after December.

I would ascribe that to the Penguins' tendency to decline defensively through the season and the fact that Jarry shines very brightly when the team is playing a certain way in front of him but the moment they're exposing his weaknesses through sloppy play, deals badly with them (and perhaps loses a little focus too). My guess, which might be wrong, is that the weakness is screens, deflections, and traffic around the net. When the Pens are hot, he might find himself dealing with more rushes than anyone would like and does well with them but the structured version of the team generally keeps the traffic down. I think. Theory based on memory. But I think it fits.
 
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Peat

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I don’t think it is far from the truth.

Ty Smith and POJ are the type of pieces that shake loose on the waiver wire or get moved for nothing all the time. Ethan Bear, Dermott, sometimes it’s a Forsling.

They have much more value to us than any other team right now.

So worth a third or a player in a similar situation.

Given how light we are on assets and how much Smith and POJ are going for the same spot, it makes sense to me to consider it.
 
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Empoleon8771

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I would ascribe that to the Penguins' tendency to decline defensively through the season and the fact that Jarry shines very brightly when the team is playing a certain way in front of him but the moment they're exposing his weaknesses through sloppy play, deals badly with them (and perhaps loses a little focus too). My guess, which might be wrong, is that the weakness is screens, deflections, and traffic around the net. When the Pens are hot, he might find himself dealing with more rushes than anyone would like and does well with them but the structured version of the team generally keeps the traffic down. I think. Theory based on memory. But I think it fits.

I think your theory makes sense, but a comment I'd make is that Murray doesn't show that same sort of regression:

2019-2020:
  • October: 10 games, .923 save%
  • November: 10 games, .867 save%
  • December: 3 games, .878 save%
  • January: 4 games, .929 save%
  • February: 7 games, .899 save%
  • March: 4 games, .899 save%
2018-2019:
  • October: 6 games, .893 save%
  • November: 5 games, .850 save%
  • December: 5 games, .959 save%
  • January: 8 games, .917 save%
  • February: 8 games, .920 save%
  • March: 15 games, .935 save%
  • April: 3 games, .910 save%
2017-2018:
  • October: 11 games, .903 save%
  • November: 10 games, .909 save%
  • December: 7 games, .899 save%
  • January: 4 games, .935 save%
  • February: 9 games, .919 save%
  • March: 6 games, .900 save%
  • April: 2 games, .891 save%
To me, Murray's game logs seem to be much more ebbs and flows of a goalie, while Jarry's numbers look pretty clearly to be declining as the year goes on. In fact, his great 2018-2019 season showed the exact opposite.
 

Darren McCord

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Dec 15, 2015
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What an idiotic post. :laugh: Just a genuinely dipshit reply.

Let POJ and Smith battle it out in camp/pre-season and go with whoever earns it. Get a top-4 LD to pair with Letang or Petry, ideally with a physical presence.

Woah, what a radical plan. Totally crazy, genuinely nuts stuff! GFY :laugh:

You still need a top 4. I am not arguing that. But I want them to play the young players and see what happens early in the season. See what you have so you aren't scrambling later. Add depth later in the season. You can't expect young guys to come in like deadline acquisition after riding the bench all year. See DOC last year
 

3ladesof5teel

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Feb 20, 2012
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I don’t think it is far from the truth.

Ty Smith and POJ are the type of pieces that shake loose on the waiver wire or get moved for nothing all the time. Ethan Bear, Dermott, sometimes it’s a Forsling.

They have much more value to us than any other team right now.

I dont think a player like TY Smith is getting let lose on waivers at that age. He is still showing improvement with a strong finish to last season. Maybe in a couple years but at his age that's not happening.

Was nice to see him finish strong in WBS after coming back from injury.
 
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