Salary Cap: Pens Off Season Thread: Pre Free Agency Shenanigans!

[Peat]

I think your theory makes sense, but a comment I'd make is that Murray doesn't show that same sort of regression:

2019-2020:

• October: 10 games, .923 save%
• November: 10 games, .867 save%
• December: 3 games, .878 save%
• January: 4 games, .929 save%
• February: 7 games, .899 save%
• March: 4 games, .899 save%

2018-2019:

• October: 6 games, .893 save%
• November: 5 games, .850 save%
• December: 5 games, .959 save%
• January: 8 games, .917 save%
• February: 8 games, .920 save%
• March: 15 games, .935 save%
• April: 3 games, .910 save%

2017-2018:

• October: 11 games, .903 save%
• November: 10 games, .909 save%
• December: 7 games, .899 save%
• January: 4 games, .935 save%
• February: 9 games, .919 save%
• March: 6 games, .900 save%
• April: 2 games, .891 save%

To me, Murray's game logs seem to be much more ebbs and flows of a goalie, while Jarry's numbers look pretty clearly to be declining as the year goes on. In fact, his great 2018-2019 season showed the exact opposite.

Murray takes time to get going as a rule. I think that's how his injuries have screwed him the most, he has to keep restarting and every time he's back in the groove he's injured again. I saw Ottawa fans complaining about that a lot.

I also think he's just a better goalie at dealing with traffic. Better positioning, longer limbs, naturally sits back a little more.

I think.

I could be absolutely full of crap when it comes to goalies.

 

[Andy99]

I would ascribe that to the Penguins' tendency to decline defensively through the season and the fact that Jarry shines very brightly when the team is playing a certain way in front of him but the moment they're exposing his weaknesses through sloppy play, deals badly with them (and perhaps loses a little focus too). My guess, which might be wrong, is that the weakness is screens, deflections, and traffic around the net. When the Pens are hot, he might find himself dealing with more rushes than anyone would like and does well with them but the structured version of the team generally keeps the traffic down. I think. Theory based on memory. But I think it fits.

I don’t think the Pens D declines as the season goes on as much as the goaltending does…it’d be interested to see those stats…for me, it appears that Jarry either (or both) can’t take a high workload as the season progresses or is not mentally strong or confident in important games or at important moments in the game…he seems to lose focus and make mistakes…but I’d be interested in seeing support for the theory that it’s really the defense in front of him

 

[Peat]

I don’t think the Pens D declines as the season goes on as much as the goaltending does…it’d be interested to see those stats…for me, it appears that Jarry either (or both) can’t take a high workload as the season progresses or is not mentally strong or confident in important games or at important moments in the game…he seems to lose focus and make mistakes…but I’d be interested in seeing support for the theory that it’s really the defense in front of him

I am feeling too lazy to go pull all the stats for that. But the Pens' tendency to go supernova around December, usually as a response to injuries forcing them to play a very disciplined style of hockey, and then start ebbing away around February once they've qualified and have everyone fit, is definitely a thing. It's driven me berserk.

Didn't happen last season because it turns out losing dmen to injury doesn't activate the team's super powers, it simply makes them shit.

Okay, one stat. Pens had a 2.75 xGA at all strengths in 21-22, drops to 2.8 post-January, drops to 2.88 from March on. Hmm. Less pronounced that I'd expected for that season.

edit: In fact can't find it the last few seasons. I definitely recall this team getting more and more rickety through the season tho.

 

[Andy99]

I am feeling too lazy to go pull all the stats for that. But the Pens' tendency to go supernova around December, usually as a response to injuries forcing them to play a very disciplined style of hockey, and then start ebbing away around February once they've qualified and have everyone fit, is definitely a thing. It's driven me berserk.

Didn't happen last season because it turns out losing dmen to injury doesn't activate the team's super powers, it simply makes them shit.

Okay, one stat. Pens had a 2.75 xGA at all strengths in 21-22, drops to 2.8 post-January, drops to 2.88 from March on. Hmm. Less pronounced that I'd expected for that season.

Yeah, I don’t see numbers that support the defense falls off…what drives you nuts is not defense per se…it’s really the forecheck and back check of the forwards, which contributes to defense, but it’s not how we’re defending shots in front of Jarry…our effort was very inconsistent last year…started off well, tailed off a little, was fantastic until Christmas and then ebbed and flowed for the rest of the season…I don’t think it had a direct impact on Jarry’s struggles

 

[Peat]

Yeah, I don’t see numbers that support the defense falls off…what drives you nuts is not defense per se…it’s really the forecheck and back check of the forwards, which contributes to defense, but it’s not how we’re defending shots in front of Jarry…our effort was very inconsistent last year…started off well, tailed off a little, was fantastic until Christmas and then ebbed and flowed for the rest of the season…

This team's defence is its forecheck though.

Last year was a mess because the blueline injuries were brutal. Not a characteristic Pens season.

One thing I will point at though is that if you want to beat Jarry, you get in close (which I think chimes with what I was was saying). His high danger save numbers aren't good. The team also asks him to make less high danger saves than they would other goalies, which screams team trying to insulate a guy. If you can make teams shoot at distance at him, he's strong, but in close? Nope.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Honestly the more I think about Jarry, the more I just want to move onto other options. Which I know Gurgs is going to come in here and say "you have a kink for rationalizing anything", but looking at his regression as the year has gone on combined with his poor high danger save% just makes me underwhelmed with the idea. Is anything going to change with just upgrading from DeSmith to Varlamov and running with Jarry-Varlamov instead? Yes, you have a better injury replacement and insurance to Jarry, but is Jarry going to kill the team before you even get to using Varlamov?

I'm still on the Hellebuyck train but I'm becoming more and more intrigued with a Pickering and Granlund for Gibson deal. I know I have shit talked Gibson a fair amount here, but the idea of both keeping #14 plus getting out of Granlund's deal is so damn appealing. If Gibson is just a mediocre starter, you still got a starter that can consistently give you 55+ games a year and got out of Granlund's deal.

 

[pensfan71]

I did see on 32TP that Friedman doesn't believe that Gibson is Dubas' guy at all

 

[Empoleon8771]

I did see on 32TP that Friedman doesn't believe that Gibson is Dubas' guy at all

I didn't see he said that, I just saw him speculate that others thought Dubas would make #14 available for a goalie.

 

[Pancakes]

I'm still on the Hellebuyck train but I'm becoming more and more intrigued with a Pickering and Granlund for Gibson deal. I know I have shit talked Gibson a fair amount here, but the idea of both keeping #14 plus getting out of Granlund's deal is so damn appealing. If Gibson is just a mediocre starter, you still got a starter that can consistently give you 55+ games a year and got out of Granlund's deal.

Getting out of a shitty contract just to immediately acquire another one is a Hextall move. Keeping the 14 is little solace if that's how it balances out.

 

[pensfan71]

I didn't see he said that, I just saw him speculate that others thought Dubas would make #14 available for a goalie.

Right at 33:40

 

[Empoleon8771]

Getting out of a shitty contract just to immediately acquire another one is a Hextall move. Keeping the 14 is little solace if that's how it balances out.

If Gibson can right the ship, he's not a shitty contract anymore. That's the appeal there. It's a high risk, high reward type of trade that can result in the Penguins getting an elite goalie plus getting out of a bad contract for just a prospect.

Frankly if he can even just be mediocre, I still think that's not really a problem at his salary. If he can be a league average goalie that just stays healthy and starts a bunch of games, I don't think that's much different than what Fleury was from like 2008-2017. $6.4 million today is less than what the Penguins paid Fleury in the past to be that.

Gibson hasn't been good for 4 years, but at the price of just Granlund and Pickering, I wouldn't need him to be great for me to be happy with that trade. If he could be a workhorse .910 save% goalie, I'm really happy with that trade.

 

[66-30-33]

Pens goalies next season will be

Gibson
Vejmelka

Both play 41 games each and we will like it.

 

[Pancakes]

If Gibson can right the ship, he's not a shitty contract anymore. That's the appeal there. It's a high risk, high reward type of trade that can result in the Penguins getting an elite goalie plus getting out of a bad contract for just a prospect.

Frankly if he can even just be mediocre, I still think that's not really a problem at his salary. If he can be a league average goalie that just stays healthy and starts a bunch of games, I don't think that's much different than what Fleury was from like 2008-2017. $6.4 million today is less than what the Penguins paid Fleury in the past to be that.

Gibson hasn't been good for 4 years, but at the price of just Granlund and Pickering, I wouldn't need him to be great for me to be happy with that trade. If he could be a workhorse .910 save% goalie, I'm really happy with that trade.

Mighty big if

 

[Empoleon8771]

Mighty big if

It is, and that's why I fully understand being hesitant with it.

But the flip side is this, would you be able to acquire someone without those huge question marks for just Granlund and Pickering?

 

[Pancakes]

It is, and that's why I fully understand being hesitant with it.

But the flip side is this, would you be able to acquire someone without those huge question marks for just Granlund and Pickering?

Probably not. It's just such a big gamble though. 3 more years of Gibson after this at a high cap.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Probably not. It's just such a big gamble though. 3 more years of Gibson after this at a high cap.

Yeah I agree with you entirely here. Like I said, it's the definition of a high risk, high reward move. I wouldn't criticize any Penguins fan for saying no to it, but the upside there is so tempting in my opinion.

 

[Peat]

Imma just transcript this bit:

"EF: there's a lot of people curious about Pittsburgh. What's Dubas going to do? How's he going to announce himself? You know when Dubas was in Toronto, he took a look at Erik Karlsson this year. I don't know that can even work, but he did have a look at Erik Karlsson this year, that was one of the things he was kind of spitballing.

But a couple of teams were thinking about, will Dubas put his first rounder on the table for a goalie.

JM: *Audible groan*

EF: And I'm not convinced that Gibson's that guy for him. I'm not convinced that Dubas is a Gibson guy."

So

a) This is all in the context of whether Dubas is looking for a splash as he's a new GM who was looking at splashes for Toronto
b) His news is other teams are wondering whether Dubas will go there and his source is other teams
c) His belief is that Dubas doesn't like Gibson that much (or possibly at all, unclear given the specificness of the scenario)

I think there's a grand total of three goalies who've been rumoured to be available who would constitute a splash - Hellebuyck, Ullmark, Saros, listed in likeliness to move.

And there's nothing that suggests he will, more that other teams wonder if he will, which sounds like "some teams would love to land 14OA for a goalie"

 

[Andy99]

So I’m going to revisit this topic again…the Atlantic projects Jake’s next contract at $9.2M AAV…I love Jake and all, but is that worth it to the Pens to give 30-year-old Jake a multi year deal with that AAV? I say no. I’d prefer to move on him from now even though he’s our best scorer…What if Jake was willing to sign long term with Ottawa…would you do a Debrincat swap with them? …younger and not as good…that’s basically what you’d get but we could supplement the scoring drop off by better depth scorers down the lineup…

 

[Pancakes]

So I’m going to revisit this topic again…the Atlantic projects Jake’s next contract at $9.2M AAV…I love Jake and all, but is that worth it to the Pens to give 30-year-old Jake a multi year deal with that AAV? I say no. I’d prefer to move on him from now even though he’s our best scorer…What if Jake was willing to sign long term with Ottawa…would you do a Debrincat swap with them? …younger and not as good…that’s basically what you’d get but we could supplement the scoring drop off by better depth scorers down the lineup…

Jake is absolutely worth paying to keep. Look at the trade returns you usually get for that kind of player. It's like late first, prospect, young nhl guy.

We're not winning a Jake trade.

The only reason to trade a Jake is if you're blowing it up and that route seems unlikely.

 

[Gurglesons]

So I’m going to revisit this topic again…the Atlantic projects Jake’s next contract at $9.2M AAV…I love Jake and all, but is that worth it to the Pens to give 30-year-old Jake a multi year deal with that AAV? I say no. I’d prefer to move on him from now even though he’s our best scorer…What if Jake was willing to sign long term with Ottawa…would you do a Debrincat swap with them? …younger and not as good…that’s basically what you’d get but we could supplement the scoring drop off by better depth scorers down the lineup…

Cap goes up next year. Jeff Carter’s contract pays for Jake’s who cares?

 

[Peat]

Mighty big if

At this point, I'm willing to trust the people who look at Gibson and believe there's still a good goalie there, he just needs out of hell.

I'm also hopeful that if he is the target, he could be got cheaper (particularly if Granlund isn't attached). My offer to Anaheim would be Broz + conditional 25 pick. 3rd if nothing happens, 2nd if the Pens make the playoffs in 24 or 25, 1st if the Pens make the conference finals in one of those years. Are they going to get better than that? Are they going to get any joy out of sitting on a guy who wants out and whose asset value isn't going up? How aggressive is Gibson willing to be with his 10 team no trade list to get to Pittsburgh? There's not a whole lot of teams who need a 6.4m goalie.

So I’m going to revisit this topic again…the Atlantic projects Jake’s next contract at $9.2M AAV…I love Jake and all, but is that worth it to the Pens to give 30-year-old Jake a multi year deal with that AAV? I say no. I’d prefer to move on him from now even though he’s our best scorer…What if Jake was willing to sign long term with Ottawa…would you do a Debrincat swap with them? …younger and not as good…that’s basically what you’d get but we could supplement the scoring drop off by better depth scorers down the lineup…

If they're serious about going for it next year, it's very hard to see how that works.

I in general would like to move on. He's about to get the sort of contract you don't want to give. I'm not convinced he's the best warrior for the way they're calling the playoffs right now. It gets him off of PP1, which I like.

I just don't see how you do it without getting significantly weaker. If you could swing some sort of Hornqvist for Neal type deal I'm interested, but I'm honestly lost as to how the hell that'd be. Guentzel for DeBrincat has some mild attractions in that he's young and a better sniper, but it feels a bit meh to me. I'd rather bank the futures and mutter a ton of hail marys going into FA.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I mean goalie is the biggest hole on the roster with Jarry's uncertain future. What do you think people would talk about, what kind of hair product Letang uses?

I mean, from a "not having a starter signed", yes. It's a hole, but... the biggest hole is simply not having enough depth because, not filling the depth hole makes whomever the goalie is, moot.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I cannot wait for us to over pay for f***ing Gibson

 

[Son Goku]

Jake is our next captain after Sid retires. Pass.

 

[Andy99]

Jake is absolutely worth paying to keep. Look at the trade returns you usually get for that kind of player. It's like late first, prospect, young nhl guy.

We're not winning a Jake trade.

The only reason to trade a Jake is if you're blowing it up and that route seems unlikely.

I just don’t think he’s worth paying to keep as he declines, as he will…he’s leaving his prime already…his defense is shitty most of the season, he’s not great on the PP and many of his goal totals are inflated by EN goals…I’d like to see us find a younger replacement…I’m not sure how you do it trading him but I wouldn’t be opposed to replacing him by committee