Salary Cap: Pens Off Season Thread: Pre Free Agency Shenanigans!

[Empoleon8771]

Shut the f*** up Kingerski

 

[chethejet]

I buy him out. His cap hit in a rising cap is just not a big deal here. Pens will be adding younger players down the road and when the rebuild kicks in. Those picks will be critical and in fact getting additional picks moving say Rust and others will give the Pens a faster way to replenish the farm. I expect those second round picks will be higher in the food chain so nope I don;t trade picks period. I like the Smith deal for reason of contractual limitation of term and fit for a LW who can play in top 9.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

So you're just a straight up Dubas hater, eh? You've been bitching all day that Dubas hasn't done anything. He goes out and makes a damn good deal out of nowhere and all you've got is a joke about Hextall? Can't even give credit where it's due

Pixies gave Dubas credit.

Barbashev got paid.

Very fair value as per what I said back in mid May:

Salary Cap: - Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

Obviously I've said over and over that I watch sports for entertainment and not some weird armchair coach competition to see why can convince themselves they liked being bored to death more. But having said that it really isn't at all about "ooh Malkin do shiny things!" at all. Not these days...

forums.hfboards.com

"My maths says his fair value is at $5M per year (5+, heck I'd give him 7 years)"

I think I had Compher at lower than that but we'll see.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I buy him out. His cap hit in a rising cap is just not a big deal here. Pens will be adding younger players down the road and when the rebuild kicks in. Those picks will be critical and in fact getting additional picks moving say Rust and others will give the Pens a faster way to replenish the farm. I expect those second round picks will be higher in the food chain so nope I don;t trade picks period. I like the Smith deal for reason of contractual limitation of term and fit for a LW who can play in top 9.

The issue is that buying Granlund out directly hurts your ability to contend in the short-term, as opposed to trading him with picks.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Doesn't Minny pay like 14M against the cap or something ludicrous in buyout penalties? Peanuts in comparison.

Those three years after this coming year (800ishK) of 1.9M against for Granlund will suck but whatever. You guys keep crowing about how signing big dumb long contracts don't matter because "who cares" in two years. So just friggin do this thing.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

buying Granlund out directly hurts your ability to contend in the short-term

Does it? $833k this year and $1.833M next.

 

[ChaosAgent]

$1.5m in dead Granlund cap is nothing. We regularly have $15-$20m on the shelf with injuries.

It is so stupid to not buy him out.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Does it? $833k this year and $1.833M next.

Yes? That's less cap space for the Penguins to use.

Trading him with picks results in no cap penalty.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

The issue is that buying Granlund out directly hurts your ability to contend in the short-term, as opposed to trading him with picks.

Wonder if we could retain at 33% if teams would be more interested?

Wonder if we could retain at 33% if teams would be more interested?

Disregard that. I thought his buyout was $2.3M penalty

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

To me retention doesn't help because you're directly eating in to the two years that "matter."

Teams can't ratchet up the retention percentage any better than 50% yeah?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Wonder if we could retain at 33% if teams would be more interested?

That has the same issue as buying him out.

To me, the Penguins have 3 legit years left, because I think Crosby probably takes a 1 year deal and retires with Malkin. Buying out Granlund puts an annoying cap penalty on 2 of those 3 years and will have the Penguins with about $2.5 million in dead cap space (after JJ's buyout). I just don't see that as a better option than paying 2 future 2nds to get out of his deal.



Dammit Kostin is no longer an option.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yes? That's less cap space for the Penguins to use.

Trading him with picks results in no cap penalty.

You lose those picks as assets. We just saw a pick used to get a really good player.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You lose those picks as assets. We just saw a pick used to get a really good player.

2nd rounders aren't particularly valuable picks. For win-now help, you're only getting something like a 3rd liner or a #4/5 D as a rental for that.

The Penguins won't have the ability to take advantage of cap strapped teams like Vegas if they waste cap space on a Granlund buyout.

 

[SEALBound]

Would have liked Kostin here but oh well. There will be others.

 

[ChaosAgent]

2nd rounders aren't particularly valuable picks. For win-now help, you're only getting something like a 3rd liner or a #4/5 D as a rental for that.

The Penguins won't have the ability to take advantage of cap strapped teams like Vegas if they waste cap space on a Granlund buyout.

It's $.9m this year and $1.9m next. Nothing compared to holding onto him. They would still have $4.1m more in cap space than they currently do.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Yes? That's less cap space for the Penguins to use.

Trading him with picks results in no cap penalty.

No? $5M >> $833k this season.

Next season the cap is expected to go up around $4M. While not ideal to spend ~50% of that cap increase on Granlund I'd rather use that extra cap space this coming season while Sid/Geno/Letang are "younger".

 

[Empoleon8771]

No? $5M >> $833k this season.

Next season the cap is expected to go up around $4M. While not ideal to spend ~50% of that cap increase on Granlund I'd rather use that extra cap space this coming season while Sid/Geno/Letang are "younger".

The comparison is paying to get out of his deal vs buying him out, not keeping him vs buying him out.

You edited that part out of the initial post. No one here wants to keep Granlund, I'm saying I want to trade like 2 way future 2nds to get out of his deal instead of buying him out and facing a cap penalty.

 

[Gurglesons]

2nd rounders aren't particularly valuable picks. For win-now help, you're only getting something like a 3rd liner or a #4/5 D as a rental for that.

The Penguins won't have the ability to take advantage of cap strapped teams like Vegas if they waste cap space on a Granlund buyout.

Over the Sidney Crosby era.

Blomqvist
Addison
Gus
Sprong
Jarry
Blueger

Were all taken in the 2nd. There is lots of value there.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

The issue is that buying Granlund out directly hurts your ability to contend in the short-term, as opposed to trading him with picks.

The comparison is paying to get out of his deal vs buying him out, not keeping him vs buying him out.

I do see that I didn't include that part of the original post I was quoting. But I still don't think your argument holds any water.

 

[Peat]

Trading him with picks also results in picks the team can't use to get stronger. Swings and roundabouts.

I would rather have 1.8m of dead cap and the right players than no dead cap but the wrong players. Look at Minnesota trucking along with 14m of dead cap or Florida making the finals with 6m of dead cap. You can create very good teams without using all the NHL cap if you have the right players who fit in the right system. Not having the asset increases the chance of getting the wrong players.

In short, I am agnostic and it all depends on what is possible. The question basically is "how many picks does it take to buy .9m of cap space next season, and 1.8m the next couple after". Like if we were paying for retention of someone, how much would we value that? Realistically I think a 25 2nd would be well received if it came about.

But I'd also add we can totally buy out Granlund and prey some more on cap strapped teams.



But in any case, I am increasingly just thinking Dubas will keep Granlund. My guess is they'll want someone creative on the third line and kid themselves into thinking he's the best choice.



I also think that it is very likely Poulin will get a cup of coffee early days so that Dubas can see what's there providing his play halfway merits it.

 

[Gurglesons]

Trading him with picks also results in picks the team can't use to get stronger. Swings and roundabouts.

I would rather have 1.8m of dead cap and the right players than no dead cap but the wrong players. Look at Minnesota trucking along with 14m of dead cap or Florida making the finals with 6m of dead cap. You can create very good teams without using all the NHL cap if you have the right players who fit in the right system. Not having the asset increases the chance of getting the wrong players.

In short, I am agnostic and it all depends on what is possible. The question basically is "how many picks does it take to buy .9m of cap space next season, and 1.8m the next couple after". Like if we were paying for retention of someone, how much would we value that? Realistically I think a 25 2nd would be well received if it came about.

But I'd also add we can totally buy out Granlund and prey some more on cap strapped teams.



But in any case, I am increasingly just thinking Dubas will keep Granlund. My guess is they'll want someone creative on the third line and kid themselves into thinking he's the best choice.



I also think that it is very likely Poulin will get a cup of coffee early days so that Dubas can see what's there providing his play halfway merits it.

Yep. Frightening.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I do see that I didn't include that part of the original post I was quoting. But I still don't think your argument holds any water.

If that was the case, why wouldn't every team just buy out their expensive players rather than paying to get rid of them?

The Islanders traded a 2nd to get out of Bailey's deal instead of facing a $2.7 million cap penalty this year and a $1.2 million cap penalty next year.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Considering Dubas tried trading for Granlund before, I fully expect Granlund to be in the starting line-up. Team probably sees him as a slightly over paid third liner.

 

[Gurglesons]

If that was the case, why wouldn't every team just buy out their expensive players rather than paying to get rid of them?

The Islanders traded a 2nd to get out of Bailey's deal instead of facing a $2.7 million cap penalty this year and a $1.2 million cap penalty next year.

Because teams have assets. We don't. Look at our picks over this year and next compared to the Islanders.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Considering Dubas tried trading for Granlund before, I fully expect Granlund to be in the starting line-up. Team probably sees him as a slightly over paid third liner.

Sad but likely true.