Pens can move Jake this year for a nice package. Then after next year Rust has a limited NMC. Gone. Karlsson has to be traded as his vale is still high and Pens can get back a really good package as well after next year. Lets assume Rust with 3 years left can get a number 1. that is three number 1's in addition to prospects and a decent roster player. Plus you pick up cap space especially i9n 2025. Dubas at that time has limited talent to draw from. Poulin, Yager, Pickering, Puusitinen, Ludvig, as some names. Plus some prospects that may have NHL caliber talent but who knows. In short, Dubas can ice a decent team through the rebuild as a way to go. Yes miss the playoffs but tanking doesn't guarantee anything. That ping pong ball changed everything. Not happening again.
Salary Cap: Pens '23-'24 Salary Cap Thread: "Mandrake, do you recall what Clemenceau once said about hockey"
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pistolpete11
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- Apr 27, 2013
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Bottoming out and getting some top 5 picks is one way to do it, but it's not the only way. Look at the hometown team Boston. The only player from their 2011 Cup team left is Marchand and the worst they have finished since is 93 points. The highest of their draft picks on the roster is McAvoy and DeBrusk (14th OV). I know they haven't won a Cup since then, but they are serious contenders nearly every year.
They are willing to make difficult decisions, though. Like firing Cassidy only 3 years after making the Cup Final and their first R1 exit. Or trading Seguin. Or simply not trading 1sts every year when you know it's not your year.
I don't think the Pens should or will go full rebuild now, but they need to trade Jake this year and get a 1st included. In another year or 2, Karlsson, Rust, Rakell, Petts, Smith, Graves, Jarry, etc. could all be traded for more draft capital. Maybe they can re-sign Jake after trading him and trade him again in a few years. Having high picks is better, but I think just as important is getting a lot of picks in the first 3 rounds.
They are willing to make difficult decisions, though. Like firing Cassidy only 3 years after making the Cup Final and their first R1 exit. Or trading Seguin. Or simply not trading 1sts every year when you know it's not your year.
I don't think the Pens should or will go full rebuild now, but they need to trade Jake this year and get a 1st included. In another year or 2, Karlsson, Rust, Rakell, Petts, Smith, Graves, Jarry, etc. could all be traded for more draft capital. Maybe they can re-sign Jake after trading him and trade him again in a few years. Having high picks is better, but I think just as important is getting a lot of picks in the first 3 rounds.
Le Magnifique 66
Let's Go Pens
While I agree 100% with you and the retooling over rebuilding part, taking a team like Boston for example who yes has been great now for close to 15 years, unlike the Pens they've also been much smarter regarding their picks and development compared to us. They very rarely traded their 1st round picks and they also had that season ( thank god they screwed up ) with 3 consecutive 1st rounders. It's much easier for them having a great pool of prospects compared to us who don't even have much bottom players in the AHL
Darren McCord
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- Dec 15, 2015
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Thats why this team should be moving Jake for a 1rst plus. They need to start trading out players with value like Boston did.
Jake for something similar to the Kuzemko and a 1rst is the type of deal they should look for. Get a guy who can fit in the top 6 and some draft capital.
Boston only could do that cause they hit a diamond with Pasta. Without Pasta the Bruins are much lower. Pasta is a top 10 player in the league.
Not saying the pens cant do it too but you need to hit big to keep success.
Le Magnifique 66
Let's Go Pens
You don't need to convince me, I was on board to do that years ago after the b2b
Darren McCord
Registered User
- Dec 15, 2015
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If this team moved Kessel after the B2B.
And fired Sullivan to hire Cassidy, they would be in much much better shape.
pistolpete11
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- Apr 27, 2013
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Right, Boston has been very disciplined in that regard and that's what I'm saying the Pens should be from now on (and should have been a few years ago). What's done is done, but you can start now and try to make up for trading all those picks by recouping some with Jake, Karlsson, Rust, Rakell, Smith, etc. in the coming years on top of not trading your picks.
No doubt. And picking in the top 5 does give you a better chance at it. I'm just pointing out that not only is that not a guaranteed way, it's not the only way.
So I have no problem with them trying to be competitive until Crosby is gone as long as they are keeping most of their 1st-3rd rounders and getting some more picks when it makes sense (like with Jake). Just like what Boston has done since 2011.
And just to add, I'm not saying to NEVER trade their 1sts again. If guys like Tkachuk or Miller or Eichel or whoever become available, I'm not against making moves to get guys like that by trade. Not necessarily these guys now, but when they were traded before. But real difference makers that you can sign long term. Not Zucker, Kapanen, etc.
Pens with Sullivan can’t do it because they would never pick Pasta or equivalent in the draft…not two-way enough for them, even though he developed well defensively…Pens under Sullivan will never take a huge upside offense only player and try to develop him, even though that is exactly what they should do lol
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What about Jake for Byfield and a first? Do you think LA would want him? Maybe Jarry instead? Sell high on that contract now…LA has no goalie for next season…
- Jun 13, 2010
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If the Penguins trade Guentzel, that is not a sign that they will sell off every valuable piece. Sid has 1 more year, Malkin 2, Letang 4. They are not going to sell the farm Sid's last year. A much more realistic path if them trading Guentzel and then making a trade or a FA splash to replace him. The more I think about, the more I think that people here need to be prepared to have a very similar roster next year, sans a 1-2 people.
Ginormousthumbs
Registered User
Not sure if I can handle another year of this season
- Jun 13, 2010
- 43,874
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I could see it but not at the cost of Byfield.
I think Grundstrom, Turcotte/Kaliyev, 1st would be a nice return. I might even be willing to add someone like Puustinen in if they are hesitant about adding in a quality prospect.
Gurglesons
Registered User
If they fired the coach and we sucked, I'd at least be like.. well we just suck.
Ginormousthumbs
Registered User
Exactly. I know the team is going have some down time, but it would be much better if the current coaching staff wasn’t behind the bench.
Gurglesons
Registered User
There is a good team buried in here in my opinion. Too many players suck here and then succeed elsewhere.
Grundstrom is not a young player anymore and isn’t very good…Turcotte doesn’t look like he’ll be very good.. maybe Kaliyev…hell, give LA both Jake and Jarry for Byfield, Kaliyev and a cap dump lol
Buddy Bizarre
Registered User
- Jul 9, 2021
- 6,812
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Even Sully defenders will acknowledge that all teams generally get a "new coach bump" and short term improvement in play. But teams generally regress to what they truly are.
Even if we concede that this new coach could be WORSE than Sully, I'm not being hyperbolic when I say that "bump" could literally mean the difference between this team making or not making it.
Gurglesons
Registered User
It's hilarious how we are hanging on to POJ and Ludvig to play 11 - 7 with our playoff lives on the line...
Buddy Bizarre
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- Jul 9, 2021
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It's all risk-based and Sullivan, much like his coaching brethren in Steelers headquarters is all about that high floor, low ceiling talent. And that conservative approach leaves you mired in mediocrity, especially since such an approach tends to bring about .500 performance anyway.
Sully would rather not make any changes. Why? let's play a game we did in my college statistics class:
Choice A Risk: Potentially Improves your chances 2%. Decreases your chances 2%
Choice B Risk: Potentially improves your chances 10%. Decreases your chances 5%
Sully is picking A every day of the week and twice on Sunday. I get it and if you are the Av's or Bruins you can say that is a wise approach. If you are a team on the cusp of the playoffs, why wouldn't you take that gamble? The loss factor is inconsequential because missing the Wild Card by 1 point or 10 points is irrelevant.
So we will not be seeing Ty Smith. A person who theoretically could boost the 1 area your team needs a major boost. Same for Puus, who seemed to give the PP some life. Those guys are too much Choice B where things could unravel for these youngsters quickly.
So not only can he not take appropriate risk analysis, he's a shitty coach to boot lol
Sidney the Kidney
One last time
- Jun 29, 2009
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This is literally it for me. How do you even properly evaluate this roster and whether it actually sucks or not if you never fire the coach? Constantly tweaking the lineup and ending up with the same results should be the first clue.
Fire the damn coach, THEN see where this roster truly is.
Ryder71
Registered User
- Nov 24, 2017
- 25,236
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It's already been decided, it's just that some have not come to accept it. It's over, time to sell.
BusinessGoose
Registered User
To come out after the AS break, knowing they need to win, and to go 1-2 is a joke.
I mean, not being able to get ONE more point at the end of last year says it all
But yeah the last three games after the break, they outscored their opponents 6-5. That's what this team is.... Stats look okay but they can't get the actual results
The only reason they haven't been trading already better be because dubas is pulling off some big moves with many teams
Ryder71
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- Nov 24, 2017
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Trading Jake is wise because it helps two fold. First, For the future in getting high quality assets and potentially garnering cap space to take an undesirable contract (thus maximizing return on this or other deals). And 2nd, it helps illuminate to the current cast that we're not really a competitive team. Which hopefully ignites a fire sale on the behalf of guys pushing them in wanting to find greener pastures.
McGroarty2
Registered User
I don't think they would do that but, I was looking the other day Byfield and Kalyive
I pray they don't go the "draft capital" route. I was looking the other day. How about Byfield and Kaliyev?
Why are people wanting to take Huberdeau's albatross contract but so set against resigning Guentzel when we know what he can do here? Not to mention Jake's points per game is higher. Everyone wants to get younger but, they want to take on another 30+ year old at 10 mill plus for seven years??????????????
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