Salary Cap: Pens '23-'24 Salary Cap Thread: "But if you don't get the President of the Pittsburgh Penguins on that phone, you know what's gonna happen to you?"

[Andy99]

Lol…Sullivan expects the 4th line will be scoring goals…

Here’s the Early Bottom Line on Penguins’ Bottom-Six

CRANBERRY — Upgrading the Pittsburgh Penguins’ third and fourth lines was a priority for Kyle Dubas this summer and, by most accounts, he succeeded. Resoundingly. Sure, patiently constructing the trade that netted defenseman Erik Karlsson was his signature deal of the summer and acquiring Reilly...

pittsburghhockeynow.com

 

[SEALBound]

From latest Pensburgh article…I don’t think this strategy is sustainable for even 75% of the season lol

“In essence, and as was pretty evident and pretty much admitted from the front office - the Pens are going to try and play to a draw when 87 and 71 aren’t on the ice and count on their PK and goalies to hold up their end of the bargain.

Then, the big boys need to feast and supply enough offense to win games. Aside from some unfortunate bounces in the opener, the plan has gotten off to exactly the start that was imagined.”

Yeah, it's the 2014 roster construction.

It's all well and good until L1 and L2 are the focus in the playoffs and they get shutdown. Traditionally, defense has never really been the issue in the playoffs. If it's not a major goalie meltdown, it's the lack of offensive depth. The first year we get legit depth to create an offensive-minded 3rd line, we win B2B. Then we slowly went away from that.

The structure of:
Scoring line 1
Scoring line 2
Defensive Line
Checking Line

Needs to be obliterated. That's not how you win anymore. You need:

Scoring Line 1
Scoring Line 2
Scoring Line 3
Defensive Line

"But that's not how Sullivan wants to use his bottom 6" - yes, which is why Sullivan should have been shown the door along with Burkle and Hextall. Or, at the very least, Dubas should be challenging this to a "within an inch of your life" degree. Now that said, Dubas could have went out and procured an offensive-minded 3rd line in FA but he chose not to. Now we are 3 games in with not a hint of production from the bottom 6.

We have a problem on our hands. Pretty clear 3 games in.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah, it's the 2014 roster construction.

It's all well and good until L1 and L2 are the focus in the playoffs and they get shutdown. Traditionally, defense has never really been the issue in the playoffs. If it's not a major goalie meltdown, it's the lack of offensive depth. The first year we get legit depth to create an offensive-minded 3rd line, we win B2B. Then we slowly went away from that.

The structure of:
Scoring line 1
Scoring line 2
Defensive Line
Checking Line

Needs to be obliterated. That's not how you win anymore. You need:

Scoring Line 1
Scoring Line 2
Scoring Line 3
Defensive Line

"But that's not how Sullivan wants to use his bottom 6" - yes, which is why Sullivan should have been shown the door along with Burkle and Hextall. Or, at the very least, Dubas should be challenging this to a "within an inch of your life" degree. Now that said, Dubas could have went out and procured an offensive-minded 3rd line in FA but he chose not to. Now we are 3 games in with not a hint of production from the bottom 6.

We have a problem on our hands. Pretty clear 3 games in.

The Penguins could have got a scoring 3dd line. Instead they chose Erik Karlsson. It was not possible to do both.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

The Penguins could have got a scoring 3dd line. Instead they chose Erik Karlsson. It was not possible to do both.

Not just that but do we really want to rob from Peter to pay Paul at this point WRT the top six versus bottom six? Should an aging Sid/Geno deal with even more suboptimal linemates for the sake of sinking another ~6M or whatever into the depth lines? Do we want the top six taking more defensive assignments in order to accommodate the bottom six's increase in OZ starts?

I definitely get the argument but in practice with the way things are at this stage I don't know how well it would actually work out. Ideally you draft and develop difference makers for your depth lines anyway. And... well... about that...

 

[ChaosAgent]

Not just that but do we really want to rob from Peter to pay Paul at this point WRT the top six versus bottom six? Should an aging Sid/Geno deal with even more suboptimal linemates for the sake of sinking another ~6M or whatever into the depth lines? Do we want the top six taking more defensive assignments in order to accommodate the bottom six's increase in OZ starts?

I definitely get the argument but in practice with the way things are at this stage I don't know how well it would actually work out. Ideally you draft and develop difference makers for your depth lines anyway. And... well... about that...

I just don't see the type of players in the bottom six that I would feel comfortable moving up for the sake of balance. I was looking forward to see DOC get a shot if Guentzel was out, but now that he is healthy it would clearly be the wrong decision.

The problem in the forward group is continuing to dress Jeff Carter. There isn't much else to optimize otherwise.

 

[Ulf5]

I’d expect Nieto, Acciari & Carter to score about 30 ES goals total if they’re on the 4th line all or a majority of the year. If they can do that, be competent defensively and reasonably physical, and PK, I’m good.

Total agreement. I expect double digit from all 3.

 

[Andy99]

Not just that but do we really want to rob from Peter to pay Paul at this point WRT the top six versus bottom six? Should an aging Sid/Geno deal with even more suboptimal linemates for the sake of sinking another ~6M or whatever into the depth lines? Do we want the top six taking more defensive assignments in order to accommodate the bottom six's increase in OZ starts?

I definitely get the argument but in practice with the way things are at this stage I don't know how well it would actually work out. Ideally you draft and develop difference makers for your depth lines anyway. And... well... about that...

No, however, it’s not like our top lines consist of Thachuk-Matthews-Pastrnak…we have a really good top six but it’s reliant on 30+ players, two of whom are really really old lol…there I’ll be injuries…then what? The way Rust is going with the shot blocks, I wouldnt be surprised if he’s out six weeks with a broken bone very shortly…who’s filling in? Once the top six is weakened at all, whether injury or being worn down throughout the season, guarantee this team is toast…EK can do a lot, but he ain’t gonna get Harkins to snipe one past a goalie…

 

[ChaosAgent]

No, however, it’s not like our top lines consist of Thachuk-Matthews-Pastrnak…we have a really good top six but it’s reliant on 30+ players, two of whom are really really old lol…there I’ll be injuries…then what? The way Rust is going with the shot blocks, I would be surprised if he’s out six weeks with a broken bone very shortly…who’s filling in? Once the top six is weakened at all, whether injury or being worn down throughout the season, guarantee this team is toast…EK can do a lot, but he ain’t gonna get Harkins to snipe one past a goalie…

The consistent thing under Sullivan has been 1-2 guys step up and punch above their weight during injuries. If we are missing 1-2 guys in the top 6 it won't be the end of the world.

Every NHL forward should have the ability to rip one past a goalie sometimes. Except Granlund.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I just don't see the type of players in the bottom six that I would feel comfortable moving up for the sake of balance. I was looking forward to see DOC get a shot if Guentzel was out, but now that he is healthy it would clearly be the wrong decision.

The problem in the forward group is continuing to dress Jeff Carter. There isn't much else to optimize otherwise.

No, however, it’s not like our top lines consist of Thachuk-Matthews-Pastrnak…we have a really good top six but it’s reliant on 30+ players, two of whom are really really old lol…there I’ll be injuries…then what? The way Rust is going with the shot blocks, I would be surprised if he’s out six weeks with a broken bone very shortly…who’s filling in? Once the top six is weakened at all, whether injury or being worn down throughout the season, guarantee this team is toast…EK can do a lot, but he ain’t gonna get Harkins to snipe one past a goalie…

I was talking more in hypothetical terms. Like... how they chose to build the current roster versus what they could have done. As in forgo signing EK in favor of building a third scoring line or telling L2 to just figure it out with Blake Comeau 2.0 or whatever instead of getting Smith so they could sign ROR or something. I just don't think it would have actually helped anything.

But yes... the way the team is built definitely makes potential injuries to the top six concerning. I don't see much down there either and Sullivan isn't going to try guys like Poulin or Puus out on a scoring line to see what, if anything, is there. So I guess we'd better just keep our fingers crossed. Though I still think Dubas would work hard to address any long term problems in either the top or bottom six. He doesn't seem like the type to sit around and shrug away the season.

 

[Andy99]

The consistent thing under Sullivan has been 1-2 guys step up and punch above their weight during injuries. If we are missing 1-2 guys in the top 6 it won't be the end of the world.

Every NHL forward should have the ability to rip one past a goalie sometimes. Except Granlund.

Maybe Philip Copley if last night is a sign of things to come lol, but not many others, no disrespect to Harkins…also two of our younger bottom six forwards aren’t really NHL forwards…they’re borderline

 

[SEALBound]

The Penguins could have got a scoring 3dd line. Instead they chose Erik Karlsson. It was not possible to do both.

Yes and no. While adding EK certainly took money out of the pot, you didn't have to sign Eller, Nieto, Johnsson, Accari, Hinostranza, etc.

You could have easily signed a 4C like Luke Glendening or Jesper Boqvist and ran DOC-Glendening-Zohorna/Carter

Then spent $5mil in other ways such as: Kostin-Geekie-Tatar

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

The consistent thing under Sullivan has been 1-2 guys step up and punch above their weight during injuries. If we are missing 1-2 guys in the top 6 it won't be the end of the world.

Every NHL forward should have the ability to rip one past a goalie sometimes. Except Granlund.

At wing, maybe. At center? This team's handing SJ a top-10 pick if Sid and/or Geno miss substantial time, imo.

 

[ChaosAgent]

At wing, maybe. At center? This team's handing SJ a top-10 pick if Sid and/or Geno miss substantial time, imo.

The team has pulled a rabbit out of its backside and awful lot when one of them was injured historically. The issue now is that Sully would be inclined to plug in Carter who has been washed for years. But Poulin or DOC would do yeoman's work there for a couple of weeks.

 

[Gurglesons]

Yes and no. While adding EK certainly took money out of the pot, you didn't have to sign Eller, Nieto, Johnsson, Accari, Hinostranza, etc.

You could have easily signed a 4C like Luke Glendening or Jesper Boqvist and ran DOC-Glendening-Zohorna/Carter

Then spent $5mil in other ways such as: Kostin-Geekie-Tatar

I don’t see the difference.

Geekie would’ve been nice. But he’s more of a wing than a C IMO.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Penguins could have got a scoring 3dd line. Instead they chose Erik Karlsson. It was not possible to do both.

This is 100000% spot on and why people need to chill with the bottom-6 complaints.

You will get a far larger offensive impact with Karlsson behind the bottom-6 than by bringing in any realistic player to play in the bottom-6. With the cap being flat for the last few years, it's impossible for a team to address all of its weaknesses without having a ton of ELCs. It's just not reasonable to be upset about the bottom-6 not scoring enough when they literally do not have the money (or bad contracts to get rid of) to spend more there.

Through 3 games, the bottom-6 is at 1 goal for (although it was technically after a PK with Smith-Eller-Rust) and 1 goal against (O'Connor-Eller-Harkins was on the ice). They're doing exactly what they are being paid to do: not get scored on and eat defensive minutes. As it is now, it's fine. If O'Connor and Harkins step it up, I think the bottom-6 can be even more than just fine.

Get Poulin up and I think the bottom-6 is sitting really well with:

O'Connor/Harkins-Eller-Poulin
Harkins/O'Connor-Acciari-Nieto

 

[The Old Master]

They're doing exactly what they are being paid to do: not get scored on and eat defensive minutes. As it is now, it's fine. If O'Connor and Harkins step it up, I think the bottom-6 can be even more than just fine.

Get Poulin up and I think the bottom-6 is sitting really well with:

O'Connor/Harkins-Eller-Poulin
Harkins/O'Connor-Acciari-Nieto

i think that could be why doc and harkins are not doing as well as some want. they are playing defense first hockey, and their offense is suffering. it may take a while to get the offense going. imo

 

[Freeptop]

I'm not worried yet about the bottom 6 not scoring yet. Simple math says that if a player is going to score 10 goals in a season, that comes out to roughly 1 goal every 8 games.
The Pens have played 3 games so far.
I'll give it another couple of games before I worry too much about it.

 

[Headshot77]

1. Give Ludvig some looks in Ruhwedel's spot. Ruh hasn't done anything wrong so far this season so I'm not harping on him, but we need roster spots and wasting one on a waiver claim we never use is stupid asset management.

2. I'd like to see us waive Shea if we aren't gonna give him a game. Ludvig would likely get picked up by the Panthers again but I'm confident Shea would clear.

3. Call up a WBS forward (I prefer Zohorna) and send Carter to the 13F spot. I haven't seen Harkins do anything of note yet so I'd demote him to #4RW

DOC-Eller-Zohorna
Nieto-Acciari-Harkins
Carter

 

[Empoleon8771]

I know I just posted a lineup without Carter in it, but I do think it's worth pointing out that Carter is probably their most proven bottom-6 producer and hasn't had below 13 goals in his NHL career. If people are concerned about the bottom-6 production, I think taking Carter out may be counteractive to that.

Even last year, he finished with 13 goals and 29 points in 13:42 TOI. Granted he did get some powerplay production, but I think he should offer some useful secondary scoring if he plays.

 

[Headshot77]

Harkins hasn't been worse than O'Connor, so I'm confused for why this place is complaining about Harkins but seemingly praising O'Connor.

I've seen more people suggest playing O'Connor in the top-6 than people criticizing O'Connor for being invisible this year. Really bizarre double standard on here.

It's because DOC is "ours". We drafted him and have been developing him for years.

Harkins is a "guy".

 

[Headshot77]

Yeah, it's the 2014 roster construction.

It's all well and good until L1 and L2 are the focus in the playoffs and they get shutdown. Traditionally, defense has never really been the issue in the playoffs. If it's not a major goalie meltdown, it's the lack of offensive depth. The first year we get legit depth to create an offensive-minded 3rd line, we win B2B. Then we slowly went away from that.

The structure of:
Scoring line 1
Scoring line 2
Defensive Line
Checking Line

Needs to be obliterated. That's not how you win anymore. You need:

Scoring Line 1
Scoring Line 2
Scoring Line 3
Defensive Line

"But that's not how Sullivan wants to use his bottom 6" - yes, which is why Sullivan should have been shown the door along with Burkle and Hextall. Or, at the very least, Dubas should be challenging this to a "within an inch of your life" degree. Now that said, Dubas could have went out and procured an offensive-minded 3rd line in FA but he chose not to. Now we are 3 games in with not a hint of production from the bottom 6.

We have a problem on our hands. Pretty clear 3 games in.

I think Sullivan would love to have 3 scoring lines. He was here for Hagelin-Bonino-Kessel.

The issue is we don't have the cap space, the trade capital, or the prospects to acquire a scoring line 3 again. At the time:

Hagelin was 4 mil.
Bonino was 1.9 mil (what a steal).
Kessel was making 8 mil but Toronto was paying 1.2 of that.

That's 12.7 mil on your third line. That could only happen because you had 3 top sixers on cheap deals (Rust, Guentzel, Sheary).

DOC-Eller-Harkins is 5 mil by comparison.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I'm far from in love with the bottom six and they don't look like they are gonna score much as currently constructed. And maybe most importantly at least to me there is nobody down there I have much confidence in bumping up in case of injury.

But in general I think Penguins fans spend a freaky amount of time hand wringing over their bottom six. If you are gonna skimp on something it should absolutely be there first and it isn't even really all that close.

 

[Ryder71]

Yes and no. While adding EK certainly took money out of the pot, you didn't have to sign Eller, Nieto, Johnsson, Accari, Hinostranza, etc.

You could have easily signed a 4C like Luke Glendening or Jesper Boqvist and ran DOC-Glendening-Zohorna/Carter

Then spent $5mil in other ways such as: Kostin-Geekie-Tatar

Even just Tatar would have been fantastic, you then have a legit scoring threat on three lines and it elevates the other two members of that line. Tatar was also a solid guy away from the puck. Would have been a big help. I totally agree with your premise.

 

[Ryder71]

I'm far from in love with the bottom six and they don't look like they are gonna score much as currently constructed. And maybe most importantly at least to me there is nobody down there I have much confidence in bumping up in case of injury.

But in general I think Penguins fans spend a freaky amount of time hand wringing over their bottom six. If you are gonna skimp on something it should absolutely be there first and it isn't even really all that close.

I'd like to address this, I can't speak for others, but my issue is (at least in theory) it's far easier to get a guy like Tatar or some such player than it is to do cap contortion and asset manipulation to get EK out of SJ. It's like you can date the hottest girl but a plain jane won't take your number. I have a lot of frustration there with Tatar. Glad we got EK, big time but a lesser move like that could have come a lot easier one would think. You got a great cake but didn't get the frosting.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I'd like to address this, I can't speak for others, but my issue is (at least in theory) it's far easier to get a guy like Tatar or some such player than it is to do cap contortion and asset manipulation to get EK out of SJ. It's like you can date the hottest girl but a plain jane won't take your number. I have a lot of frustration there with Tatar. Glad we got EK, big time but a lesser move like that could have come a lot easier one would think. You got a great cake but didn't get the frosting.

Sure that would have been great and I have some qualms about rushing out on day one of FA and blowing your wad. But I dunno... it's the bottom six, man. And especially on this team the way they are deployed I just don't get the incessant bellyaching. Penguins fans are just plain weird about obsessing over their third line.