Salary Cap: Pens 2024 Summer Thread: "Thus, knocking us out of these superior numbers when we emerge! Mr. President, we must not allow a non-playoff bound gap!"

[Empoleon8771]

I just think if you're Carolina why in the world would you want Ryan Graves unless you think you can fix him? He was never all that good to begin with. KK has theoretical upside even if he's also not that good.

Maybe I'm wrong and Carolina is that desperate to offload KK that they'd be willing to do something like that just to be rid of him *shrug*. I don't follow them closely enough to say.

Let's flip it around. If you are any team wanting to trade for Kotkaniemi, why would you agree to trade for him if you're not giving up another terrible long-term deal for him?

The likely outcome here is that the Canes will just buy out Kotkaniemi, because they won't take a bad deal back due to his buyout being tame while other teams won't be willing to trade for Kotkaniemi without sending out their own bad deal.

Would they do Graves and Ponomarev for Kotkaniemi? Probably not unless they absolutely love Ponomarev. But if you are the Penguins, why would you trade for Kotkaniemi without giving up Graves? You can just wait for him to be bought out and then sign him in UFA for like $3 million a year.

 

[Gurglesons]

Let's flip it around. If you are any team wanting to trade for Kotkaniemi, why would you agree to trade for him if you're not giving up another terrible long-term deal for him?

The likely outcome here is that the Canes will just buy out Kotkaniemi, because they won't take a bad deal back due to his buyout being tame while other teams won't be willing to trade for Kotkaniemi without sending out their own bad deal.

Would they do Graves and Ponomarev for Kotkaniemi? Probably not unless they absolutely love Ponomarev. But if you are the Penguins, why would you trade for Kotkaniemi without giving up Graves? You can just wait for him to be bought out and then sign him in UFA for like $3 million a year.

I don't think a 12 year buyout despite the minimal amount is ever the "likely" outcome.

Kotkaniemi is a 23 year old center who is one year removed from a 40+ point season and a solid playoffs making sub 5 million. Some team will take that on.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think a 12 year buyout despite the minimal amount is ever the "likely" outcome.

Kotkaniemi is a 23 year old center who is one year removed from a 40+ point season and a solid playoffs making sub 5 million. Some team will take that on.

If Carolina won't buy him out, then they're taking back a bad contract in the deal for him. Will it be Graves bad? Maybe not, but they're not moving Kotkaniemi without taking back a multi-year bad contract back.

 

[Pancakes]

Let's flip it around. If you are any team wanting to trade for Kotkaniemi, why would you agree to trade for him if you're not giving up another terrible long-term deal for him?

The likely outcome here is that the Canes will just buy out Kotkaniemi, because they won't take a bad deal back due to his buyout being tame while other teams won't be willing to trade for Kotkaniemi without sending out their own bad deal.

Well the obvious answer would be for the potential upside with him. And the chance to control him as an asset. Would the Pens have a shot at Kotkaniemi if he ends up as a free agent due to being bought out? He might rather go elsewhere where he'd get more of a role.

You're right that Carolina might just prefer the buyout though to taking on any other bad contracts.

If I'm Dubas and Carolina isn't willing to take on Graves I'd consider giving them Smith and maybe getting Carolina to toss in a pick or prospect the Pens way to take back KK. if they're that desperate to get rid of him and don't want to buy him out then Dubas being able to take on KK, offload Smith, and get like a third or second or something....seems like good business to me. But the buyout is so light on KK that maybe Carolina would be unwilling.

 

[Gurglesons]

If Carolina won't buy him out, then they're taking back a bad contract in the deal for him. Will it be Graves bad? Maybe not, but they're not moving Kotkaniemi without taking back a multi-year bad contract back.

Could be.

A team like Chicago or San Jose could also just take the contract for nothing.

Well the obvious answer would be for the potential upside with him. And the chance to control him as an asset. Would the Pens have a shot at Kotkaniemi if he ends up as a free agent due to being bought out? He might rather go elsewhere where he'd get more of a role.

You're right that Carolina might just prefer the buyout though to taking on any other bad contracts.

If I'm Dubas and Carolina isn't willing to take on Graves I'd consider giving them Smith and maybe getting Carolina to toss in a pick or prospect the Pens way to take back KK. if they're that desperate to get rid of him and don't want to buy him out then Dubas being able to take on KK, offload Smith, and get like a third or second or something....seems like good business to me. But the buyout is so light on KK that maybe Carolina would be unwilling.

Exactly.

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

Because Kotkaniemi likely doesn't have much of an upside either.

Idk, I think you're just overrating Kotkaniemi here. I think the best case scenario with him is a fringe 2C/3C, which I'm not even sure that he's worth his contract if he ends up that.

If Kotkaniemi wasn't a high pick, I don't think anyone would view him as more than a bottom-6 center.

Young doesn't necessarily mean good. I don't want a new Kia over a used Ferrari at the same price. If they can sign their 10 UFA/FA and keep KK, they are going to do so.

If they can't, KK would be a cap dump so they aren't going to want cap back. I could see us having a deal with KK for Smith with some retained, and maybe Carolina adds a low draft pick or something.

However, I could see Utah being an easier trade partner than us though. If KK doesn't fit what they need, maybe a 3 way trade, where Utah gets Smith, we get KK, and Carolina gets a 4th rounder or something from Carolina.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Could be.

A team like Chicago or San Jose could also just take the contract for nothing.



Exactly.

I don't think any team would trade for him without the Canes adding something or the Canes taking back a bad deal.

Well the obvious answer would be for the potential upside with him. And the chance to control him as an asset. Would the Pens have a shot at Kotkaniemi if he ends up as a free agent due to being bought out? He might rather go elsewhere where he'd get more of a role.

You're right that Carolina might just prefer the buyout though to taking on any other bad contracts.

If I'm Dubas and Carolina isn't willing to take on Graves I'd consider giving them Smith and maybe getting Carolina to toss in a pick or prospect the Pens way to take back KK. if they're that desperate to get rid of him and don't want to buy him out then Dubas being able to take on KK, offload Smith, and get like a third or second or something....seems like good business to me. But the buyout is so light on KK that maybe Carolina would be unwilling.

Actually I'd be fine with the move if it was like that. Getting an asset on top of Kotkaniemi while sending out Smith with no salary retention is something I'd be fine with.

Something like Smith for Kotkaniemi and a 3rd is something I'd be pretty okay with.

 

[Gurglesons]

I don't think any team would trade for him without the Canes adding something or the Canes taking back a bad deal.

I think it is possible. He's 23 years old. He's a center.

 

[Pancakes]

Actually I'd be fine with the move if it was like that. Getting an asset on top of Kotkaniemi while sending out Smith with no salary retention is something I'd be fine with.

Something like Smith for Kotkaniemi and a 3rd is something I'd be pretty okay with.

I think it'd be a great move for the Pens. I do wonder if some other team would be more willing to just gamble and take KK with less strings attached though.

But this is exactly the type of move that Dubas should be looking at if he's serious about making the Pens younger. No team is going to give away good young players so you're gonna have to find some that have warts whether that's via their contracts or their on-ice play.

I'm not so desperate to want Nichuskin though lol but I would take a KK.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I just poo-pooed the idea of Smith and Eller for Kotkaniemi, but now that I'm thinking "if they throw a 3rd on top as well", I'm suddenly supportive of it

But honestly, Eller for Kotkaniemi and a 3rd is another deal that makes some sense to me. I think replacing Kotkaniemi with Eller isn't much of a change for Carolina while only paying a 3rd to get out of a $30 million committment seems pretty light on their end. I wouldn't be happy with straight up but getting another mid rounder for the swap would be worth it IMO.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think there's truth to the idea that this team's gonna have to try and get ugly options and hope it works out. They're not competitive, they're not a locale draw, they're about to be very bad for a very long time. A guy like Reinhart isn't gonna pick the Pens, so they'd have to go digging around in the bargain bin. Which, tbh, I don't think is gonna work given the age of the roster and their difficulties with scoring goals. Rough situation, and one I don't think they can dig their way out of--especially since I don't think they see it as anything more than a series of unfortunate events and bad luck, not poor coaching, poor roster composition, and a problematic goalie signed for half a decade.

 

[Pancakes]

I think there's truth to the idea that this team's gonna have to try and get ugly options and hope it works out. They're not competitive, they're not a locale draw, they're about to be very bad for a very long time. A guy like Reinhart isn't gonna pick the Pens, so they'd have to go digging around in the bargain bin. Which, tbh, I don't think is gonna work given the age of the roster and their difficulties with scoring goals. Rough situation, and one I don't think they can dig their way out of--especially since I don't think they see it as anything more than a series of unfortunate events and bad luck, not poor coaching, poor roster composition, and a problematic goalie signed for half a decade.

If (big if) Sid maintains a high level and Malkin doesn't fall off too hard, there's a chance they could turn things around enough to make the playoffs this year and next year.

Past that things look pretty grim though. No way Sid is holding on past 38-39 to be elite I don't think, and Malkin will be falling off heavily by then.

Them making the playoffs at all also depends heavily on the coaching staff getting its head out of its ass and Dubas making some smart moves in the meantime which like good luck with all that lol.

But that's totally fine. This idea that we need to hold on inevitably is foolish. If the Pens do bottom out post Crosby that's entirely fine and they'll probably be better off for it in the long run if they get 2-3 years of picking in the top 5.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Remember how awesome the Canes and their fans thought they were for all that KK f***ery?

And now we're sitting here talking about trading like Smith and/or Graves for him and not really loving the idea of it lol

 

[Empoleon8771]

Looking at past cap dump trades, I actually think the Penguins could probably pull off a 2nd to take on Kotkaniemi's deal. I know he's owed $30 million technically, but his buyout is $10 million that the Canes would be electing to do if they don't trade him. Taking on $10 million in dead money has tended to cost teams around a 1st or 2 2nds, but I think Kotkaniemi's age plus still being a useful player should lower that price.

It's a hard comparison to make because I do not recall a single example of a guy in Kotkaniemi's shoes getting moved. All of the negative value cap dumps we've seen in the past have been older guys, so I'm not sure that the negative value price for a mid-30s buyout candidate is the same as Kotkaniemi.

Also considering the Canes have numerous times taken advantage of taking on bad deals (Bickell, Pacioretty and Marleau are 3 examples that jump to mind), I'm not exactly keen on giving them a discount when they're looking to get out of a bad deal this time.

 

[orby]

Something around Eller for Kotkaniemi isn't an awful idea.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

If (big if) Sid maintains a high level and Malkin doesn't fall off too hard, there's a chance they could turn things around enough to make the playoffs this year and next year.

Past that things look pretty grim though. No way Sid is holding on past 38-39 to be elite I don't think, and Malkin will be falling off heavily by then.

Them making the playoffs at all also depends heavily on the coaching staff getting its head out of its ass and Dubas making some smart moves in the meantime which like good luck with all that lol.

But that's totally fine. This idea that we need to hold on inevitably is foolish. If the Pens do bottom out post Crosby that's entirely fine and they'll probably be better off for it in the long run if they get 2-3 years of picking in the top 5.

Eh, Sid played at a level as high as anyone his age has ever played and the team was a hot streak away from finishing with like the 7th worst record in hockey. We gotta just go into the rest of Sid's career with zero expectations imo. Wouldn't be surprised if he took a step back and dropped his PPG streak--age is eventually gonna catch up and Jake's gone (and I don't think Bunting's gonna keep up a near-PPG pace). Sully's still the coach. Jarry's still here. LD on the blueline's still a shitshow (I'm not impressed with Petts, he's just the best of a miserable bunch).

They can definitely still make the playoffs if things go well, but they could also miss by a lot. Particularly if Sid falls off any notable amount or gets a serious injury.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I would do Graves for Kotkaniemi, but I also would not mind seeing Graves stay, play on the third pairing with a true stay-at-home guy like St. Ivany and see what happens. I think Graves can resurrect his Pens (and NHL) career with a lesser role and a defensive defender next to him. Of course, if you can get out of that deal (or Rakell's for that matter), you do it.

But I would not sweeten offers with futures to get rid of either player. Those days are hopefully over. Futures need to come in, no go out for the foreseeable, er, future.

As for Lars Eller to Carolina, I don't see it. They already have four centers under contract for next season not including Kotkaniemi. Staal and Aho are mainstays, Kuznetsov does not play wing and Drury is already showing signs of becoming a quality pivot.

I do want to trade Eller, but I don't think Carolina is a fit.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

The idea of Graves at 4.5M full time on the third pairing makes my head hurt.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

If the Canes are considering buying out KK then they should shop him with retention down to 4mil. Aka, 820k retention.

The retention money is the same but it is far shorter, 6 years versus 12 years. Then again, to any GM it probably doesn't matter since they figure they won't be the GM that long anyways.

I definitely think teams will be interested, even with no retention, if they don't have to give up any assets.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think Graves could rebound but the team needs a RD they simply don't have, and can't really get. Letang and Karlsson just aren't those guys to help settle down things and let Graves focus more on the transition side of things.

I wanted Graves, but it was not a good signing. Swing and a miss. /shrug

 

[KrisLetAngry]

The idea of Graves at 4.5M full time on the third pairing makes my head hurt.

Agreed its a shame he doesn't work with either Top 4 RD
I think he is better than being the #5

If the Canes are considering buying out KK then they should shop him with retention down to 4mil. Aka, 820k retention.

The retention money is the same but it is far shorter, 6 years versus 12 years. Then again, to any GM it probably doesn't matter since they figure they won't be the GM that long anyways.

I definitely think teams will be interested, even with no retention, if they don't have to give up any assets.

Tieing down a retention slot makes 0 sense for 6 years.

A buyout would just be better.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I think, much like our old 10 million+ 4th line, spending 4.5 million on any third pairing guy is just f***ing dumb.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think as the cap keeps going up, the going rate for a fringe #4/5 D is going to basically match what Graves is already making.

Graves is currently the 69th (nice) highest paid defenseman in the NHL and most of the defensemen paid similarly are more 19-20 minute a night type of guys. I don't think there needs to be a huge market shift for that price being for 17-18 minute a night type of guys in UFA rather than 19-20 minute a night guys.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I don't think Graves is playing like a 4/5 guy though. He's playing like a 6/7.

And if he was playing like a 7/8 at least he could be in Radiohead.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think Graves is playing like a 4/5 guy though. He's playing like a 6/7.

Yeah he had a bad year last year, but he's still likely more of a 4/5 guy.

If he's a 6/7 guy, then yeah that contract is heinous. I just think the expectation with him should be a 4/5 guy. It's still expensive now but it's likely going to be pretty close to market rate in 2-3 years. Now Graves actually need to play like that 4/5 type of guy he's supposed to be.