Salary Cap: Pens 2024 Summer Thread: "Thus, knocking us out of these superior numbers when we emerge! Mr. President, we must not allow a non-playoff bound gap!"

[Maninthebox87]

I think trading Jarry will be a little tough because I think there are better options out there for goaltender needy teams. I forget how many teams are on his NTC but i feel if it was me personally and my job let it be known they wanted rid of me and money obviously being no issue I’d waive it every time just about.

 

[Maninthebox87]

I would hope Dubas wouldn’t resort to this but I recall him in Toronto trading away a first round pick to get out of the Marleau contract and I believe another high pick to get out of a goalie contract.

I’m hoping he doesn’t think he restocked the prospect pool in the Guentzel trade but maybe he throws in one of the second round picks we have this year to move out a contract.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think trading Jarry will be a little tough because I think there are better options out there for goaltender needy teams. I forget how many teams are on his NTC but i feel if it was me personally and my job let it be known they wanted rid of me and money obviously being no issue I’d waive it every time just about.

I don't see this at all. The UFA class for goalies is horrendous, with the best UFA goalie being a 36 year old Cam Talbot. The class is so bad that Nedjelkovic is probably the 2nd or 3rd best UFA goalie out there.

In the trade market, the only name I've heard of is Markstrom. He's a better option than Jarry due to having a shorter deal, but that's about it. He and Jarry had very similar stats last year.

I would hope Dubas wouldn’t resort to this but I recall him in Toronto trading away a first round pick to get out of the Marleau contract and I believe another high pick to get out of a goalie contract.

I’m hoping he doesn’t think he restocked the prospect pool in the Guentzel trade but maybe he throws in one of the second round picks we have this year to move out a contract.

That would be downright insanity for a team in this position to be paying to get out of any deals. This team isn't a contender, why are they paying to get out of bad deals?

They should be taking assets to bring in bad deals, not the other way around.

 

[SEALBound]

Yea but it's Yohe. He could say nothing and it would have the same value.

It's simple. If Yohe/Rossi/DK:

Say something bad about anything Dubas has done: It is 100% true and a fine piece of journalism and should be nominated for an award.

Say something bad about Hextall or anything good about Dubas: It is 100% false and highly questionable and they all suck as reporters.

At this point, it's evidence that we live in the matrix and people are just programmed to respond to stimuli in pre-programmed ways.

Can we trade Graves back to New Jersey for Palat?

I would do that. NJ guys seems to miss him a bit so from the fans POV, not the worst idea. Graves may be an opportunity for us to take on a different struggling player. Like Mikheyev from Vancouver for example or, as cringe-worthy as it is, KK from Carolina. Look for teams that have a need on defense and have a spare player up front, or on LTIR, or even on defense that they want the change. Montreal could be another destination. Without cap space, you could do something like Graves and Nieto/Acciari for Dvorak and Armia.

I'm honestly not that surprised they want to move on from Rakell. He was a Hextall acquisition and signing that seemingly doesn't fit all that well with Malkin and won't be playing with Crosby. He was terrific for the Penguins in 2022-2023 and isn't really "overpaid" for what he brings, but they're better off finding a better fit with Malkin than just shoehorning Rakell there.

I think Jarry ends up getting moved this off-season. There are too many teams with shitty goalie situations that I really struggle to see no one wanting to trade for Jarry. Ottawa sticks out as a major example of a team who may want him.

And as a team that has a plethora of options to trade with. They have a couple forwards that would be appealing, Chychrun on defense, Korpisalo to take back...a lot that could be done with Ottawa honestly.

Chychrun+Korpisalo for Jarry+POJ+2nd+prospect for example.

I would hope Dubas wouldn’t resort to this but I recall him in Toronto trading away a first round pick to get out of the Marleau contract and I believe another high pick to get out of a goalie contract.

I’m hoping he doesn’t think he restocked the prospect pool in the Guentzel trade but maybe he throws in one of the second round picks we have this year to move out a contract.

I don't think this team has any deals it needs to pay to get out of though. If you factor in Pono, Poulin, Puustinen, JSI, and Puljujarvi as roster players, we have more than enough young guys to fill the roster. You could scratch a guy like Graves or play him on the 3rd pairing with relatively little consequence because you have the cap space to do so. That gives you the leverage of "well we don't HAVE to trade him. We WANT to do but don't HAVE to." meaning you don't have to pay to move them.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I think trading Jarry will be a little tough because I think there are better options out there for goaltender needy teams. I forget how many teams are on his NTC but i feel if it was me personally and my job let it be known they wanted rid of me and money obviously being no issue I’d waive it every time just about.

There aren't. This goalie free agent class is even worse than last year.
Jarry would be #1, again.
Talbot is 37. Samsonov is even more unreliable mentally than Jarry, and worse overall. Stolarz, Broissoit, Rittich?

This is a great time to trade Jarry, if we're prepared to discard this season.
The only scenarios I can see with us improving in goal is an Ullmark trade, which is a reach. Or Blomqvist puts on the cape.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

It is an obvious statement to say that the Pens want to move on from four players: Smith, Jarry, Rakell and Graves. But only the first two are realistic.

Smith's Stanley Cup pedigree and Jarry's shutouts are the selling points for those two. To move Rakell or Graves, you probably have to move a pick or prospect, which is what reportedly is what we need more of, not less.

If you want to move out four assets, add Eller and Acciari to Smith and Jarry. Eller can be moved for a pick, I am fairly certain. Acciari might have to be thrown into a deal for one of the other dudes.

As for Mathieu Joseph, I love the player. Would love to get him. He is the rare player who is both intriguing for us and a guy that Sullivan PROBABLY loves too. I say probably because I have given up trying to figure out who works well under Sullivan and who does not. It is all over the place. Plus, I think bringing in Mathieu would help P.O. Joseph as well. I want to keep the latter, but I know most want to get rid of him.

 

[SEALBound]

You wouldn't have to add a pick to move Rakell. No way. He's your prototypical top 6 RW signed to a market-value contract. The good news with a guy like Rakell is, if you trade for him, you are getting a player that is costing you $6mil on the open market with how bad the FA market will be with the cap going up. And he'll give you the $5mil value on a nightly basis.

There aren't. This goalie free agent class is even worse than last year.
Jarry would be #1, again.
Talbot is 37. Samsonov is even more unreliable mentally than Jarry, and worse overall. Stolarz, Broissoit, Rittich?

This is a great time to trade Jarry, if we're prepared to discard this season.
The only scenarios I can see with us improving in goal is an Ullmark trade, which is a reach. Or Blomqvist puts on the cape.

If they resigned Neds and ran Neds-Blomqvist this season, I can't see it being any better or worse than Jarry-Neds/Blom.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Graves for Mikheyev makes no sense for Vancouver. They are cap-strapped and have holes to fill. Buying Mikheyev out makes more sense than bringing back Graves. Plus, I would ask for MORE to take on Mikheyev. He is a fourth-liner now. You cannot have his limited production anywhere higher.

Graves for Kotkaniemi? I do it in a heartbeat. Yeah, he too is now a fourth-liner but he is 23 years old. You bet on the six-year gap between Graves and Kotkaniemi and you move on.

You wouldn't have to add a pick to move Rakell. No way. He's your prototypical top 6 RW signed to a market-value contract. The good news with a guy like Rakell is, if you trade for him, you are getting a player that is costing you $6mil on the open market with how bad the FA market will be with the cap going up. And he'll give you the $5mil value on a nightly basis.


If they resigned Neds and ran Neds-Blomqvist this season, I can't see it being any better or worse than Jarry-Neds/Blom.

I hope you are right about Rakell. I like Rakell, but his term could scare away suitors. That said, he was linked to the Sabres at some point from somewhere. So, I suppose it is possible.

 

[Maninthebox87]

I think in addition to Markstrom other goaltenders that are potentially available would be Ullmark out of Boston, Spencer Knight from Florida if bobs their guy now, Gibson from Anaheim has been available for what seems like 5 years now, I’m not sure if Jarry would be any teams plan A but maybe if someone misses out on Markstrom or Ullmark he’d be a teams plan B.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Rakell's term doesn't make him untradable, but it reduces the return. You either have to accept significantly less to clear his entire cap or you have to accept at least some salary back, probably someone with at least two years on their current deal.

Rakell will have more suitors than Graves because the perception is he was playing hurt last year and he's still a valuable piece, even if that contract isn't great. There are a lot more questions about Graves that will give teams pause.

I think it's 80% likely Smith is traded, 50% likely Rakell is traded, 40% likely Jarry is traded, and 5% likely Graves is traded.

 

[Maninthebox87]

I don’t think Rakell is a bad player really but I’d move him out and try to find a “Perron for Hagelin” style of trade someone else who has term but isn’t a good fit for that team.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Saw on tsn that Ottawa is looking to get rid of Mathieu Joseph, P.Os brother. He makes a little under 3 million and is signed for two more seasons. I always thought he stood out when he played against the pens and brought a little nastiness.

I was interested last year if he came with a pick or if we could have traded for him. Imagine not signing Accairi and taking MOJ

Mathieu Joseph would be a decent pickup for us, honestly. He was practically a cap dump to start the year, but with an elevated role, he did quite well, and most fans were pretty happy with him. Plays that rougher style. If they really wanted to run DOC with Sid, MJ would be a good LW for the 3rd line. I don't think he's the guy you get to go on Sid's LW though.

I would suggest that he is a similar player to Dakota Joshua, so if people want him, they can trade for his counterpart.

If you pick up Joshua or Joseph, though, I think that means you need to move Rakell in a major move for a big-time winger. Just pretend for the sake of conversation that you could do Rakell, Poulin, and 1st for Marner.

DOC-Sid-Rust
Bunting-Malkin-Marner
Joseph-Pono-Smith/XXXX
XXXX-Eller-Acciari

Or do that anyway and just sign Jakey-boy.

Jake-Sid-Rust
Bunt-Geno-Marner
DOC-Pono-Joseph
Acciari-Eller-Puljujarvi

I fully agree getting 1 high end winger would be the goal this offseason. Unsure if the price to pay will be too high though.

It is an obvious statement to say that the Pens want to move on from four players: Smith, Jarry, Rakell and Graves. But only the first two are realistic.

Smith's Stanley Cup pedigree and Jarry's shutouts are the selling points for those two. To move Rakell or Graves, you probably have to move a pick or prospect, which is what reportedly is what we need more of, not less.

If you want to move out four assets, add Eller and Acciari to Smith and Jarry. Eller can be moved for a pick, I am fairly certain. Acciari might have to be thrown into a deal for one of the other dudes.

As for Mathieu Joseph, I love the player. Would love to get him. He is the rare player who is both intriguing for us and a guy that Sullivan PROBABLY loves too. I say probably because I have given up trying to figure out who works well under Sullivan and who does not. It is all over the place. Plus, I think bringing in Mathieu would help P.O. Joseph as well. I want to keep the latter, but I know most want to get rid of him.

His cost probably went up with his play.

If we could somehow trade Graves I have 0 problems with a POJ and St Ivany bottom pairing.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

You wouldn't have to add a pick to move Rakell. No way. He's your prototypical top 6 RW signed to a market-value contract. The good news with a guy like Rakell is, if you trade for him, you are getting a player that is costing you $6mil on the open market with how bad the FA market will be with the cap going up. And he'll give you the $5mil value on a nightly basis.

Not sure I agree with this. Poor special teams play for the most part. Not good defensively. He has the odd outlier positive year, but his average is pretty underwhelming.
As a GM I wouldn't take him off someone's hands without a sweetener i think, not unless the market sucked, no one good wanted to sign with my team and I was desperate.
5 mil until 36 is risky.

If they resigned Neds and ran Neds-Blomqvist this season, I can't see it being any better or worse than Jarry-Neds/Blom.

Blom is a complete unknown. Hard to say what Ned will do next year too.
I can see results at both ends of the spectrum. The percentage play is Jarry + Ned though.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I have a hard time saying they'd have trouble moving Rakell when you know that there will be multiple Rakell type of players getting Rakell type of contracts in UFA.

You may have to wait for those similar UFAs (guys like Mantha, Teravainen, Bertuzzi and Domi) to sign elsewhere, but there will be teams that miss out on all of them that would circle back to someone like Rakell as an alternative.

 

[Pancakes]

Rakell just put up a pretty crappy season and is on the wrong side of 30 and signed for a while. I don't think anyone is clamoring to pick that contract up.

Jarry's deal seems more movable in comparison because even though he's mid as f*** there's a lot of teams desperate for even decent goaltending out there. With goalies though you almost never seem to get much value back in trades so if he does get dealt it will be for a pittance I'm sure.

 

[Darren McCord]

Rakell just put up a pretty crappy season and is on the wrong side of 30 and signed for a while. I don't think anyone is clamoring to pick that contract up.

Jarry's deal seems more movable in comparison because even though he's mid as f*** there's a lot of teams desperate for even decent goaltending out there. With goalies though you almost never seem to get much value back in trades so if he does get dealt it will be for a pittance I'm sure.

Rakell's bad season is being overblown.

He averaged a min less ice time per game and shot below his avg shooting %. He isn't being used right here (Surprise) and his numbers are suffering. He would easily bounce back to 20-25 goal player if he was deployed properly. He has value at his cap.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Rakell just put up a pretty crappy season and is on the wrong side of 30 and signed for a while. I don't think anyone is clamoring to pick that contract up.

Jarry's deal seems more movable in comparison because even though he's mid as f*** there's a lot of teams desperate for even decent goaltending out there. With goalies though you almost never seem to get much value back in trades so if he does get dealt it will be for a pittance I'm sure.

It did come out that Rakell wore a brace on his shoulder for most of the season. And as others have mentioned, similar players are about to get similar deals as free agents this year.

That said, you raise a good point that teams may be more desperate to try and address goaltending given the lack of quality goaltending in the league right now.

 

[SEALBound]

Not sure I agree with this. Poor special teams play for the most part. Not good defensively. He has the odd outlier positive year, but his average is pretty underwhelming.
As a GM I wouldn't take him off someone's hands without a sweetener i think, not unless the market sucked, no one good wanted to sign with my team and I was desperate.
5 mil until 36 is risky.


Blom is a complete unknown. Hard to say what Ned will do next year too.
I can see results at both ends of the spectrum. The percentage play is Jarry + Ned though.

The entire Penguins PP finished bottom 3 in the league with the likes of Sid, Geno, EK, Letang, and Guentzel on it. I don't think many GMs will look at that and hold it against him. He did have a down year but he's still #35 on the list for points for people who are considered RWs. Looking at the list, points, and cap hit, again, he's right at market value. He's right in the average top 6 wing spot along side guys like Mangiapane, Eberle, Garland, and Palmieri. The RW market is pretty bad. You try for a guy like Duchene, Sprong, Tarasenko, or Marchessault but with the exception of Sprong, I think you're pay well above $5mil for those guys.

He's basically in a similar position as Reilly Smith last year. 4 years instead of 2. A 3rd with no retention would be fair. Or a 3rd with taking a contract back.

I have a hard time saying they'd have trouble moving Rakell when you know that there will be multiple Rakell type of players getting Rakell type of contracts in UFA.

You may have to wait for those similar UFAs (guys like Mantha, Teravainen, Bertuzzi and Domi) to sign elsewhere, but there will be teams that miss out on all of them that would circle back to someone like Rakell as an alternative.

Agreed. Like I said, I think Rakell is giving you a $5mil market value every night. There is definitely some room for better play so I wouldn't be considering last year as a new norm. But with the guys you mentioned, I think they're all getting more than $5mil for longer than 4yrs. I don't see many $5mil x 4yr candidates giving you a Rakell-level performance. Best bet there is paying a $3-4mil guy the $5mil in exchange for a for shorter term deal - like Sprong maybe. Then you hope each game they bring that $5mil value.

That said, I don't hate Rakell so I'm a'ok keeping him.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I would simply like us to pick a path and do something accordingly, but I do not think we will. I would like to be proven wrong.

 

[eXile3]

I would simply like us to pick a path and do something accordingly, but I do not think we will. I would like to be proven wrong.

This is the biggest elephant in the room. We’re directionless.

Are we trying to compete for a cup? Eh kinda of but not really.

Are we trying to rebuild for a cup in the future? Eh kinda of but not really.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

This is the biggest elephant in the room. We’re directionless.

Are we trying to compete for a cup? Eh kinda of but not really.

Are we trying to rebuild for a cup in the future? Eh kinda of but not really.

The shocking part about this is some fans/media/whatever see this as some sage plan when it's an impossible balancing act. I think (speaking for us, mostly) that we'd understand one way or the other even if both ways come with pitfalls. But trying to do both (or at least saying you are) is just a foolish waste of everyone's time.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think that Dubas consistently says "we're competing as long as we have Sid ... *but*" is quite telling. They've obviously not fully bought in to that last part, with how they've embarrassingly gone groveling at Rust's feet "blessed child, worry not, we will never ask you to waive" and all that.

The moment they start to ask a guy like Rust to waive, or there are reputable rumors that they're actively trying to sell a guy like Petts, I'll start to listen. Until then, I expect a whole lot more of the same bullshit PR speak and directionless stuff we've seen since about 2019.

 

[SEALBound]

I would simply like us to pick a path and do something accordingly, but I do not think we will. I would like to be proven wrong.

To be fair, Dubas has been pretty clear - he wants to restock the team and prospect pool with young players.

We know the path that we are on - compete for a playoff spot with Sid and Geno on the roster and build for the future.

The problem is, that's an incredibly tough path to be on because it's a one-foot-in and one-foot-out path, and you can't do either all that well simultaneously. Moreover, whichever path is not doing well is what people will hyper-fixate on.

It's not the best path (either of them) and it's tough to plan. You just can't be f***ing terrible at it like Hextall was and ruin the roster by jettisoning young, quality players and bringing in guys like Carter. Now to be fair, Dubas did similar things with Jarry, Eller, and Acciari, and Graves but at least he was willing to trade Jake for a haul. The problem now is he should be firing Sullivan and trading guys like Rust but...here we are.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

The entire Penguins PP finished bottom 3 in the league with the likes of Sid, Geno, EK, Letang, and Guentzel on it. I don't think many GMs will look at that and hold it against him. He did have a down year but he's still #35 on the list for points for people who are considered RWs. Looking at the list, points, and cap hit, again, he's right at market value. He's right in the average top 6 wing spot along side guys like Mangiapane, Eberle, Garland, and Palmieri. The RW market is pretty bad. You try for a guy like Duchene, Sprong, Tarasenko, or Marchessault but with the exception of Sprong, I think you're pay well above $5mil for those guys.

He's basically in a similar position as Reilly Smith last year. 4 years instead of 2. A 3rd with no retention would be fair. Or a 3rd with taking a contract back.

The only thing that makes me want to keep Rakell is that he had chemistry with Bunting, and he's going to be used with him again if he stays.
4.04 career PPP/P60 is pretty rough. He had his outlier year on the PP with us, but I don't expect him to bring that again, now that he's gotten comfortable and complacent here.
He averages 12 PPPs per 82 games. We got a problem on that left side.

Smith is more valuable imo. He PK's at a very high level. He doesn't rely on PP for production much at all, he has much stronger career 5v5 numbers, and he defends better at ES.
Odds are he improves if he stays, playing with Sid.

The thing with Raks is we didn't get a down year for him. It just feels that way because of his outlier year 1.
2023-24 was in line with his career average, which is 1.76 5v5 P/P60. Last year 1.75.
So a realistic expectation from him if he has similar deployment, is a similar result. And with a 5 mil price tag I don't think that's worth it.

You bring up Garland. I would much rather have him.
And yeah if Duchene can be convinced to come here, I would let Raks go and pay a little bit more to bring him for sure. He can play C as well, which adds value.
Malkin might suck next year, so...

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Here is how I look at the direction of the club. What Hextall and Burke did is irrelevant to this conversation. Dubas tried something last summer and the results just were not there. So, he is pivoting. Is this not what you want from a GM? It is what I want. Be pro-active, admit mistakes as soon as possible, and try a new course of action.

This new course of action should have been our course of action since at least 2020, but I may even argue the summer of 2018. But I digress.