Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[Darren McCord]

Who are these better options?

The only clearly better options out there are Hellebuyck, Ullmark/Swayman and possibly Saros. The Penguins don't have the assets for Saros, Hellebuyck likely would only be a 1 year rental and Boston may still find a way to keep both Ullmark and Swayman if Swayman takes a cheap 1 year deal.

The Penguins should move on from Jarry because they need to make changes with their goalies, but making a downgrade for the sake of making a downgrade is also a stupid decision. They should be moving on from Jarry for an upgrade, and if you can't get that upgrade, then re-signing Jarry may be the correct decision.

People have brought up guys like Korpisalo and Varlamov as alternatives, as if Korpisalo didn't have 2 straight seasons below a .900 save% in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 and Varlamov wasn't just a backup at this point.

If you resign Jarry that's fine but you need to jettison DeSmith. I have not confidence in that tandem. Or just someone to allow you to burry DeSmith in the AHL

 

[Empoleon8771]

If you resign Jarry that's fine but you need to jettison DeSmith. I have not confidence in that tandem. Or just someone to allow you to burry DeSmith in the AHL

Frankly DeSmith shouldn't even be on the team next year, regardless of whether they keep Jarry or not.

 

[Darren McCord]

Is anything out there what Jarry is asking for?

At one point I think it was reported at 6 but thats before this awful season.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

No this website just has a really damn stupid opinion on Jarry.

The gold medal for mental gymnastics comes from fans who would rather not have a starting goalie over overpaying a starting goalie. It's bizarre how people simultaneously say "the future doesn't matter, the team is going to suck when Crosby and Malkin retire anyway" while also saying "we can't re-sign Jarry because his deal could be an albatross in the future".



Exhibit A for this website having really stupid opinions on Jarry.

Man, the amount of times you've word-pretzeled random bullshit over the years regarding Sullivan or Jarry or Granlund or Carter or whoever else is just funny to me, that's all. You've got an uncanny ability to debate yourself into flipping sides at the drop of a hat. I'm too lazy and don't really care enough to search it up, but if I had to wager a guess, I imagine you would've been posting "well just wait a second there, buckaroos, Jack Johnson might've sucked shit for years and is widely regarded as one of the worst players in the league, but he might just be a great, under the radar pickup if you really think about it!" when JR signed the guy. This may come as a shock to you, but this website has f***ing stupid opinions on just about everything, because--potential news flash here--we're *all* obsessed, nobody dipshits with meaningless opinions, talking a buncha shit on a message board to the tune of tens of thousands of posts. That includes you. No reason to get so bent outta shape.

I think Jarry's a fine goalie when he's not in one of his weirdo inconsistent spells, or if you need your goalie to come up with a clutch save, or when he's dealing with an injury, or on the shelf entirely with injury, or if it's the playoffs or... Well, I'm sure you get it.

IMO Jarry sucks as an option now and moving forward. We all know he sucks as an option. There is no reason for this team to tie itself to a goalie like Jarry who has only ever been dogshit in the single playoff round he's appeared in, has had tremendous trouble staying healthy for a while now, issues burning out as the season wears on, and has had issues with inconsistent play--probably due in large part to said durability issues. *Particularly* because of the term he's going to be asking for on his next deal.

As for Jarry's treatment, I'd say he's treated a lot like Murray, and for good reason. They're both goalies who are entirely capable of being a starter and posting impressive numbers for stretches. if not for injury issues and bouts of inconsistent play sabotaging the overall package--and I think the scathing critique and overall fatigue with having to deal with the circus is entirely fair. Well, the comparison is maybe unfair to Murray, because at least Murray actually had some great playoff runs. Jarry's one healthy appearance in the post season, he shit the bed like MAF circa 2012.

Is anything out there what Jarry is asking for?

Rumor seems to be Jarry's looking for a 6ish year deal. No idea on AAV, but likely north of $5 million.

 

[Darren McCord]

Frankly DeSmith shouldn't even be on the team next year, regardless of whether they keep Jarry or not.

Agreed. I hope Dubas purges the team of DeSmith and Ruh. Like this team has to many depth journeymen who just stay. I hope Friedman is gone too

 

[JTG]

Both of these ideas sound entirely unappealing to me

Don't re-sign Zucker and just dump Granlund for whatever the cost would be.

I would also, honestly. I don't see an easy way out of any of this. We are going to see what Dubas is made out of because I think this roster has a lot of work to be done, and it's going to need 2 years to get it there.

 

[Epic Neal Time]

I think we definitely need to upgrade on Ruhwedel. I'm sick of the complacent guy who has no aspirations of being anything more than a 7D. We need someone hungry in that spot, looming to earn a regular spot.

 

[Peat]

I don't want to pay goalies either but I think people are underestimating how difficult it is to get a performance even just like last year Jarry from your goalies. If it was so easy to get solid goalie performances, you wouldn't see teams like Edmonton still struggling to get good goaltending.

I mentioned him already, but people have been bringing up Korpisalo because he had a .914 save% in 39 starts last year. But in the previous 2 years, he had an .887 save% in 55 starts combined. The opposite happened to Elvis Merzlikins in Columbus, he went from a .910 save% in 87 games in the previous 2 years to an .875 save% in 30 games this year.

The main reason you shouldn't want to commit term and money to goalies is because goalies are really inconsistent season to season, way more than any other position. But if you have a consistent goalie from year to year, you should absolutely lock that down and get him signed long-term. What makes the best goalies the best goalies is that they can consistently perform at that level, not that they're any more skilled than any other goalie.

Jarry is closer to a consistent goalie for me, because even with his struggles he still puts up good overall numbers and decent advanced numbers. But he's obviously not fully in that "consistent goalie" category, because we wouldn't be having this discussion if he was there. But if you could get him to a reasonable contract (medium term at around $5 million a year), that pretty clearly seems to be a better option to me than trying to roll the dice with some cheap goalie in net.

Agree with a lot of that.

I'd point out that even in a bad season, he posted a solid Quality Start percentage of .574. Most nights he gave them a chance to win. I think 13 starters did better so not exactly sparkling, but not horrendous.

Honestly at this point the main reason I don't want Jarry back is that this place has considerable PTSD about the guy and I cba to bother reading that. The secondary reason is unverifiable worrying over long term fitness. Those things aside, there's no reasonable upgrade from him that isn't pricy. We don't know what his own price is but unless he (and other teams) has gone mad, it's going to be better than spending elsewhere at a guess.

Won't be super happy to see him back, but barring swindling some team in an unlikely fashion, I'm not going to be super happy whatever comes in net.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I think Jarry could be had at 5M per.

Issue is he'd want a long term commitment at that number and that's my biggest hangup when it comes to a contract with any goaltender. I want like three years max and I think owing to the position's volatility that that's reasonable.

They and their agents won't think so. But it is.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I would also, honestly. I don't see an easy way out of any of this. We are going to see what Dubas is made out of because I think this roster has a lot of work to be done, and it's going to need 2 years to get it there.

I think the dude's set up to fail because he's been handed the impossible task of restocking the prospect cupboard while also keeping up the masquerade that this team's "100% all-in guys, we're going for Cups, promise" been doing for the past couple years despite not seeing the 2nd round since 2018. /shrug

I think Jarry could be had at 5M per.

Issue is he'd want a long term commitment at that number and that's my biggest hangup when it comes to a contract with any goaltender. I want like three years max and I think owing to the position's volatility that that's reasonable.

They and their agents won't think so. But it is.

Yeah, I think the durability issues and volatility in Jarry's game are exactly why he's gonna want a stupid contract this summer. Another year of inconsistent and injury-plagued play in a one or two year bridge deal and he might've just f***ed himself over for the rest of his career. Wants that security now because he knows there may not ever be an opportunity like this again.

I don't blame him, I just think it's an absolutely silly idea to even entertain the thought of keeping him around for any cost/term. Give him a one year deal as a "prove you can stay healthy and consistent" and you're staring down either wasting one of the two final years of Sid on a mess of a goalie, or you're staring down a colossal deal next summer if Jarry excels and stays healthy. /shrug

Seems like a terrible idea from any and all angles to me.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think Jarry's a fine goalie when he's not in one of his weirdo inconsistent spells, or if you need your goalie to come up with a clutch save, or when he's dealing with an injury, or on the shelf entirely with injury, or if it's the playoffs or... Well, I'm sure you get it.

IMO Jarry sucks as an option now and moving forward. We all know he sucks as an option. There is no reason for this team to tie itself to a goalie like Jarry who has only ever been dogshit in the single playoff round he's appeared in, has had tremendous trouble staying healthy for a while now, issues burning out as the season wears on, and has had issues with inconsistent play--probably due in large part to said durability issues. *Particularly* because of the term he's going to be asking for on his next deal.

As for Jarry's treatment, I'd say he's treated a lot like Murray, and for good reason. They're both goalies who are entirely capable of being a starter and posting impressive numbers for stretches. if not for injury issues and bouts of inconsistent play sabotaging the overall package--and I think the scathing critique and overall fatigue with having to deal with the circus is entirely fair. Well, the comparison is maybe unfair to Murray, because at least Murray actually had some great playoff runs. Jarry's one healthy appearance in the post season, he shit the bed like MAF circa 2012.

Again, the issue comes down to what's the alternative? Even if everything you said was 100% true and not exaggerated at all, there are so few other better alternatives available right now. Downgrading in net for the sake of making changes is a bad decision. There's no other way to put it.

People need to look at goalies like they're a probability function, where better goalies give a larger chance of being able to provide consistently good goalies than worse goalies. That is what separates goalies in the NHL, it's not skill level it's consistent performance. You could get a great performance out of someone like Adin Hill and end up winning a cup with a $2 million starter, sure. But you could also get a performance like Jones (48 games with an .886 save%) or Reimer (43 games with an .890 save%) for that cost. If you look through the guys making that $2 million to $3.5 million range, you'll find far more goalies like Jones and Reimer than Hill.

Hell, I can just provide that information right here, here are the goalies who make between $2 million and $3.5 million last year that played in at least 25 games:

-Fleury: .908 save% in 46 games with an AAV of $3.5 million
-Jarry: .910 save% in 47 games with an AAV of $3.5 million
-Vanecek: .911 save% in 51 games with an AAV of $3.4 million
-Georgiyev: .918 save% in 62 games with an AAV of $3.4 million
-Allen: .891 save% in 42 games with an AAV of $2.875 million
-Kahkonen: .883 save% in 37 games with an AAV of $2.75 million
-Forsberg: .902 save% in 28 games with an AAV of $2.75 million
-Vejmelka: .899 save% in 50 games with an AAV of $2.725 million
-Reimer: .890 save% in 43 games with an AAV of $2.25 million
-Hill: .914 save% in 27 games with an AAV of $2.175 million
-Jones: .886 save% in 48 games with an AAV of $2 million
-Raanta: .910 save% in 27 games with an AAV of $2 million

This list isn't very good. Georgiyev is really the only guy there that I'd love to have, everyone else is just giving 2022-2023 Jarry performances or worse. And most of the goalies are in the "worse" category.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I think we definitely need to upgrade on Ruhwedel. I'm sick of the complacent guy who has no aspirations of being anything more than a 7D. We need someone hungry in that spot, looming to earn a regular spot.

I don't want to disagree with you but the issue is I think the NHL has a lack of quality bottom 6 or even top 4 D so all those 7s we want that are hungry end up being pushed up to starters.

Why be a cheap 7D when another team pays a few extra 100k for you to be in a bottom 6.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Also speaking of that list, I think there is a very real chance that Dubas could target Fleury this off-season as someone to acquire. Gustavsson has seemingly taken over the starter's role in Minnesota with his astounding 2022-2023 season (.931 save% in 39 games), but he's a RFA and needs to be re-signed. Minnesota is dealing with the worst part of the Suter and Parise buyouts, so I wonder if they'd view Fleury at $3.5 million an expensive luxury they couldn't afford. Dubas tried to acquire Fleury from Chicago a few years back, which was only killed because of Fleury's NTC.

I know people will roll their eyes at the idea of Fleury, but that's pretty much the only cheap goalie I could see making sense for the Penguins. You know what you're getting with him and he's not costing a ton on the cap or via trade (most likely). Going with something like a Fleury-Hill tandem until Blomqvist is ready doesn't inspire me, but it's probably high up on the list of unattractive goaltending solutions this year.

I like Hill as a goalie but I don't think I'd want to pay the cup tax that would come with him. I've liked him since he was in Arizona and I thought San Jose gave up on him way too fast. But with that being said, he's still firmly a 1B goalie and I imagine some stupid team is going to pay him like a 1A or a starter this off-season.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Again, the issue comes down to what's the alternative? Even if everything you said was 100% true and not exaggerated at all, there are so few other better alternatives available right now. Downgrading in net for the sake of making changes is a bad decision. There's no other way to put it.

People need to look at goalies like they're a probability function, where better goalies give a larger chance of being able to provide consistently good goalies than worse goalies. That is what separates goalies in the NHL, it's not skill level it's consistent performance. You could get a great performance out of someone like Adin Hill and end up winning a cup with a $2 million starter, sure. But you could also get a performance like Jones (48 games with an .886 save%) or Reimer (43 games with an .890 save%) for that cost. If you look through the guys making that $2 million to $3.5 million range, you'll find far more goalies like Jones and Reimer than Hill.

Hell, I can just provide that information right here, here are the goalies who make between $2 million and $3.5 million last year that played in at least 25 games:

-Fleury: .908 save% in 46 games with an AAV of $3.5 million
-Jarry: .910 save% in 47 games with an AAV of $3.5 million
-Vanecek: .911 save% in 51 games with an AAV of $3.4 million
-Georgiyev: .918 save% in 62 games with an AAV of $3.4 million
-Allen: .891 save% in 42 games with an AAV of $2.875 million
-Kahkonen: .883 save% in 37 games with an AAV of $2.75 million
-Forsberg: .902 save% in 28 games with an AAV of $2.75 million
-Vejmelka: .899 save% in 50 games with an AAV of $2.725 million
-Reimer: .890 save% in 43 games with an AAV of $2.25 million
-Hill: .914 save% in 27 games with an AAV of $2.175 million
-Jones: .886 save% in 48 games with an AAV of $2 million
-Raanta: .910 save% in 27 games with an AAV of $2 million

This list isn't very good. Georgiyev is really the only guy there that I'd love to have, everyone else is just giving 2022-2023 Jarry performances or worse. And most of the goalies are in the "worse" category.

I've been saying all year that if Jarry's kept, it's because this team was too scared to go in a different direction and they just settled for the flawed goalie they know as opposed to going with a flawed goalie they don't. I just think there's ample evidence that Jarry is not the goalie for this team now, or moving forward. We agree, it's hard to find consistent, good goaltending in the NHL. Teams like the Flyers, Leafs and Oilers have been looking for a really long time. I just don't think Jarry's best happens on a consistent enough basis to commit to, and his durability is my biggest concern with a new deal being needed and the guy probably not settling for anything short of a "set for life" contract this summer.

Vejmelka may be a decent goalie in the making once he gets out of Arizona, and he shouldn't cost a ton to acquire to keep around. Taking advantage of the Bruins' cap struggles by poaching Ullmark or Swayman is probably this team's best bet at landing an improvement. Hellebuyck is the clear-cut best option but is going to cost a shitload and probably doesn't have any desire to re-sign. Saros probably isn't even on the block, but the reported asking price is something insane like multiple 1sts and multiple blue chip prospects. Hart's an option but you'd have to work out a three team deal because it's highly unlikely Philly moves him to the Pens without a big overpayment. I'm sure there are other options out there but I can't think of any off the top of my head.

All I know is that this team needs to go in a different direction, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they just re-signed Jarry because that seems like an extremely Penguins thing to do. I hope Dubas doesn't do it though, because I'm sick to shit of watching Jarry f*** up his fundamentals, let in back breakers, or play injured for weeks or months at a time.

 

[Peat]

I think Jarry could be had at 5M per.

Issue is he'd want a long term commitment at that number and that's my biggest hangup when it comes to a contract with any goaltender. I want like three years max and I think owing to the position's volatility that that's reasonable.

They and their agents won't think so. But it is.

He mightn't. This is pure speculation and optimism but when we're seeing free agents opt for 2 year contracts due to believing we're about see some big cap jumps, I think there's a chance he'd be one of them.

It makes sense. He could still get a retirement contract at 30, and he could get it in a richer environment after a stronger year. It's a gamble, but one that makes more sense for him than most.

There is of course no way of knowing. But I wouldn't automatically rule it out.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think Jarry would be the dumbest mother f***er to not jump at whatever the most amount of money he could get this summer. Another inconsistent and/or injury plagued season or a chronic issue requiring a major procedure and he's looking at costing himself probably tens of millions of dollars.

It's possible he's confident enough in himself and his body (re: cocky) that he'd take a two year deal in hopes of cashing out huge in a couple of seasons with the cap likely jumped up ~$10 million, but man, that's a gamble I wouldn't advise if I was his agent.

 

[mephisto1812]

Agreed. I hope Dubas purges the team of DeSmith and Ruh. Like this team has to many depth journeymen who just stay. I hope Friedman is gone too

I'd actually be fine keeping Friedman as a number 7, unless you can replace him with someone younger with upside for the same price.

 

[Freeptop]

No matter who the Pens bring in as a goaltender, I expect that there will be a vocal contingent on these boards complaining about them by the end of the season.

That's because the Pens are never going to play a system that is friendly to goaltenders.

Fleury is the case-study here. For years there were people saying he was overrated, not good enough, washed-up, etc. Then he went to Vegas and took them to the Cup Final. And that was with him definitely being past his prime. It caused people outside Pittsburgh to re-evaluate him, and, again, outside of Pittsburgh, he's now viewed as a likely Hall of Famer, whereas he wasn't while he was still a Penguin.

Unless the Pens find a way to bring in Dominik Hasek in his prime, I wouldn't expect good numbers from any Penguins goaltender. They're going to be facing a lot of odd-man rushes, which the public analytics do a terrible job of reflecting.

That said, I'm in the camp of "don't pay big money for a big name goaltender", because the big name goaltenders are often a product of the team they play behind as well. Might as well hope the Pens can find someone who can get a hot hand like Murray did in '16 and '17.

 

[Factorial]

 

[Peat]

Also speaking of that list, I think there is a very real chance that Dubas could target Fleury this off-season as someone to acquire. Gustavsson has seemingly taken over the starter's role in Minnesota with his astounding 2022-2023 season (.931 save% in 39 games), but he's a RFA and needs to be re-signed. Minnesota is dealing with the worst part of the Suter and Parise buyouts, so I wonder if they'd view Fleury at $3.5 million an expensive luxury they couldn't afford. Dubas tried to acquire Fleury from Chicago a few years back, which was only killed because of Fleury's NTC.

I know people will roll their eyes at the idea of Fleury, but that's pretty much the only cheap goalie I could see making sense for the Penguins. You know what you're getting with him and he's not costing a ton on the cap or via trade (most likely). Going with something like a Fleury-Hill tandem until Blomqvist is ready doesn't inspire me, but it's probably high up on the list of unattractive goaltending solutions this year.

Flower is already shooting this one down

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/pittsburgh-penguins/news/marc-andre-fleury-stay-minnesota-wild-ending-pittsburgh-penguins-reunion

 

[Empoleon8771]

Flower is already shooting this one down

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/pittsburgh-penguins/news/marc-andre-fleury-stay-minnesota-wild-ending-pittsburgh-penguins-reunion

Gotcha, that makes sense to me. I figured Fleury wouldn't want to keep moving for the sake of moving and he has pretty much all of the say on the situation. Guerin probably wouldn't even try to trade him just out of respect.

 

[Andy99]

Who are these better options?

The only clearly better options out there are Hellebuyck, Ullmark/Swayman and possibly Saros. The Penguins don't have the assets for Saros, Hellebuyck likely would only be a 1 year rental and Boston may still find a way to keep both Ullmark and Swayman if Swayman takes a cheap 1 year deal.

The Penguins should move on from Jarry because they need to make changes with their goalies, but making a downgrade for the sake of making a downgrade is also a stupid decision. They should be moving on from Jarry for an upgrade, and if you can't get that upgrade, then re-signing Jarry may be the correct decision.

People have brought up guys like Korpisalo and Varlamov as alternatives, as if Korpisalo didn't have 2 straight seasons below a .900 save% in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 and Varlamov wasn't just a backup at this point.

There’s Vejmelka, Swayman, Andersen, even Raanta…all as good or better than Jarry…But Korpisalo is equally as average as Jarry, no worse…in the goaltending thread I copied a post from a guy who did spreadsheet of goalie stats at ES and there’s a list of equivalent goalies at ES as Jarry…I mean if you could get Korpy at 2 years $4M to platoon with another goalie, versus paying Jarry $5M for 6 years…that’s a better option for the Pens..

 

[SEALBound]

The risk with Jarry is the contract. When he says stuff like "I've been hurt for awhile and surgery won't fix it", that's a huge red flag. If we are talking 1yr, $3mil then sure. You can bring in contingencies if he doesn't do well. But if we are talking more than he made this year for multiple years, that's just a hard no for me. I think I would rather take the risk of someone new knowing full well they might give a worse performance but at a manageable contract.

$5mil+ for 5-7years? I mean, that's a Jack Johnson level of irresponsible-ness.

 

[Peat]

There’s Vejmelka, Swayman, Andersen, even Raanta…all as good or better than Jarry…But Korpisalo is equally as average as Jarry, no worse…in the goaltending thread I copied a post from a guy who did spreadsheet of goalie stats at ES and there’s a list of equivalent goalies at ES as Jarry…I mean if you could get Korpy at 2 years $4M to platoon with another goalie, versus paying Jarry $5M for 6 years…that’s a better option for the Pens..

I too believe it's generally better to get people for their worst possible contracts instead of their best.

In any case, Moneypuck has different stats to NaturalStatTrick, by which the idea Vejmelka is on the same planet as Jarry is laughable (he is also comfortably ahead of Andersen and Raanta, and Korpisaalo is laughably bad, and Swayman being available is a bit of a dream situation).

According to NST, Jarry has posted a GSAA/60 of .22 in the last three seasons at all situations. That's 9th out of the 30 goalies who played a 100 games in that time (Vejmelka is 29th)

Which one do you trust?

Besides, does it even matter when Vejmelka is under team control to a team that has no incentive to sell cheap and therefore not really available unless I've missed something?

I will throw out a name for a tandem based on NST stats though - Anthony Stolarz.


edit: p.s. When I say which one do you trust, I mean neither is transparently dead on fantastic. There is no absolute story here.

 

[Darren McCord]

I'd actually be fine keeping Friedman as a number 7, unless you can replace him with someone younger with upside for the same price.

You have Smith.

So you have your top 6 but they should really be bringing in another top 4 LD.

POJ or Smith should be 7