Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[Empoleon8771]

That Ullmark to Jarry stat comparison may be one of the most disingenuous arguments I've ever seen made on this site. If Jarry had a good year this year, this wouldn't even be a discussion because the Penguins would have re-signed him already. Even taking out Ullmark's historic performance entirely, Jarry would be the Pittsburgh Penguins goalie for the foreseeable future if he was a UFA last year instead of this year. But because he had a bad and injury prone year, he's not.

Pointing out that Jarry and Ullmark have similar stats just says that Ullmark is a good starting goalie, just like Jarry is a good starting goalie. Trying to paint Jarry as a bad goalie is not only revisionist history on his past career, but it's also just a comical overreaction to Jarry having a down year. If Ullmark is just Jarry coming off a strong year, I'd love to acquire that because Jarry coming off a strong year is a guy I'd re-sign with no hesitation.

Like I said, I think Penguins fans have had a lot of really bad takes regarding the goalie position ever since the end of the season. I just pray that Dubas doesn't have the same mindset that some of you have.

 

[gdsmack267]

Oo I agree with you overall too. Look at what Boston did. I think they are good example.

Lindholm
Ullmark
Hall

All helped them retool on the fly. Funny enough those are exactly the pieces the pens need. Top 4 LD. Top 6 LW and goalie. If we did those moves instead of Boston we would have been in a much better situation.



Chad-Ruuta

I vomited at that

You're not wrong but unless other salary goes out or some hockey trade they might be stuck with it. But I do think they pick up a #3-5 depth LD in free agency

 

[Empoleon8771]

Back to the discussion on forward depth, there is a new super interesting name that may unexpectedly hit UFA this off-season: Trent Frederic. There's a thread on the main board saying that the Bruins won't qualify Frederic due to their cap crunch, which would let him become a UFA. He's coming off a 17 goal, 31 point season as a depth guy for Boston, I'd be really intrigued with that as a potential 3rd line LW option.

He's 6'3" and 214 lbs while being a real piece of shit on the ice, so that would be a guy I'd love to try to sign in free agency.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Also if we want to talk about injury histories regarding goalies, you really shouldn't look at Korpisalo's injury history:

Korpisalo out for season for Blue Jackets with hip injury | NHL.com

Goalie expected to need six months to recover after surgery

www.nhl.com

Korpisalo out 4-6 weeks for Blue Jackets following knee surgery | NHL.com

Goalie sustained injury during shootout in loss to Blackhawks

www.nhl.com

This is bullshit. Ullmark had a GSAx of 42 this year. Saying "his performance was severely influenced by the way Boston plays" is bullshit. He was just as good as Saros was last year based on GSAx, he was the best goalie in hockey period. Him being on Boston let him put up ludicrous numbers, but that performance on any team would at minimum net him a Vezina nomination.

Swayman had a .920 save%. Ullmark had a .938 save%. Saying that Swayman also had "ridiculous numbers" is just fake news, there's no other way to put it. Ullmark was by far the best goalie in hockey last year, it's not even a contest. Swayman was great on a terrific defensive team. Ullmark was the best goalie in hockey on a terrific defensive team.

And you're bringing up Jarry's numbers as if Jarry has been a bad goalie over his career. Jarry hasn't, he has been a very successful starting goalie over his career. If I can get a goalie as good as Jarry that is coming off a Vezina season for very cheap, I'd do that insantly. Trying to capitalize on Penguins fans' hyperbole regarding Jarry is a terrible argument.

Ullmark was 19th in GSAx the year prior, eight spots below Jarry. Jarry was 76th this year. GSAx evaluates the here and now, it is not an indicator of future success. It really means nothing in trying to determine what is the best fit for the Penguins.

I bring up Jarry, because you're replacing him by trading for Ullmark. In doing so, your goal should be to A) Reduce cost in goal; B) Improve consistency in performance; and/or C) Change the style of goaltender, i.e. going bigger in exchange for less athleticism.

Acquiring Ullmark costs a valuable player and a valuable pick, plus his cap hit of $5 million.
Keeping Jarry costs his projected cap hit of likely around $5 million, give or take.

Ullmark has one season of outstanding play, and he completely fell apart - either due to ineffectiveness or the unreported injury - in the playoffs. How is he different from Jarry?

If the Pens are moving on from Jarry, I want more cost certainty. I want consistency and durability, even if it means needing two goaltenders to share the load evenly. If you can't address that, I'd rather keep Jarry, because it makes the most sense from an asset standpoint.

And, frankly, I'd rather not use assets other than cap space to acquire goaltending, given its unpredictable nature and the rapidly closing competitive window. I'd much rather sign UFA goalies and use assets like POJ/Smith/picks to fill other holes.

 

[Gurglesons]

Ullmark was 19th in GSAx the year prior, eight spots below Jarry. Jarry was 76th this year. GSAx evaluates the here and now, it is not an indicator of future success. It really means nothing in trying to determine what is the best fit for the Penguins.

I bring up Jarry, because you're replacing him by trading for Ullmark. In doing so, your goal should be to A) Reduce cost in goal; B) Improve consistency in performance; and/or C) Change the style of goaltender, i.e. going bigger in exchange for less athleticism.

Acquiring Ullmark costs a valuable player and a valuable pick, plus his cap hit of $5 million.
Keeping Jarry costs his projected cap hit of likely around $5 million, give or take.

Ullmark has one season of outstanding play, and he completely fell apart - either due to ineffectiveness or the unreported injury - in the playoffs. How is he different from Jarry?

If the Pens are moving on from Jarry, I want more cost certainty. I want consistency and durability, even if it means needing two goaltenders to share the load evenly.

And, frankly, I'd rather not use assets other than cap space to acquire goaltending, given its unpredictable nature and the rapidly closing competitive window. I'd much rather sign UFA goalies and use assets like POJ/Smith/picks to fill other holes.

Agree with a lot of this. The playoffs consistently show that you either have the best goalie in the league or you spend cheap and cross your fingers. Ullmark ain’t the best in the league and his numbers are obviously juiced by Boston’s system.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Ullmark was 19th in GSAx the year prior, eight spots below Jarry. Jarry was 76th this year. GSAx evaluates the here and now, it is not an indicator of future success. It really means nothing in trying to determine what is the best fit for the Penguins.

I bring up Jarry, because you're replacing him by trading for Ullmark. In doing so, your goal should be to A) Reduce cost in goal; B) Improve consistency in performance; and/or C) Change the style of goaltender, i.e. going bigger in exchange for less athleticism.

Acquiring Ullmark costs a valuable player and a valuable pick, plus his cap hit of $5 million.
Keeping Jarry costs his projected cap hit of likely around $5 million, give or take.

Ullmark has one season of outstanding play, and he completely fell apart - either due to ineffectiveness or the unreported injury - in the playoffs. How is he different from Jarry?

If the Pens are moving on from Jarry, I want more cost certainty. I want consistency and durability, even if it means needing two goaltenders to share the load evenly.

And, frankly, I'd rather not use assets other than cap space to acquire goaltending, given its unpredictable nature and the rapidly closing competitive window. I'd much rather sign UFA goalies and use assets like POJ/Smith/picks to fill other holes.

Bringing up the Jarry comparison is pointless. The Penguins are only moving on from Jarry because he had a bad and injury prone year last year. If Jarry was coming off a strong and healthy season like he had in 2021-2022, they wouldn't be letting him go.

If Ullmark is just Jarry coming off a good year, you trade for that immediately because Jarry coming off a good year is a no-brainer to re-sign. Especially when he's only making $5 million a year for 2 years.

Agree with a lot of this. The playoffs consistently show that you either have the best goalie in the league or you spend cheap and cross your fingers. Ullmark ain’t the best in the league and his numbers are obviously juiced by Boston’s system.

No they don't do that. Just because fans want to come up with dumb conclusions doesn't mean that's reality.

 

[Gurglesons]

Bringing up the Jarry comparison is pointless. The Penguins are only moving on from Jarry because he had a bad and injury prone year last year. If Jarry was coming off a strong and healthy season like he had in 2021-2022, they wouldn't be letting him go.

If Ullmark is just Jarry coming off a good year, you trade for that immediately because Jarry coming off a good year is a no-brainer to re-sign. Especially when he's only making $5 million a year for 2 years.



No they don't do that. Just because fans want to come up with dumb conclusions doesn't mean that's reality.

They do though. Ullmark isn’t a game changer and we don’t have the assets to spend a ton on a goaltender who isn’t.

GSAx this year also says Bob’s having the best goaltending performance since it was utilized. Math is messed up.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Bringing up the Jarry comparison is pointless. The Penguins are only moving on from Jarry because he had a bad and injury prone year last year. If Jarry was coming off a strong and healthy season like he had in 2021-2022, they wouldn't be letting him go.

If Ullmark is just Jarry coming off a good year, you trade for that immediately because Jarry coming off a good year is a no-brainer to re-sign. Especially when he's only making $5 million a year for 2 years.

Or you could just re-sign Jarry to a similar cap hit as Ullmark with the belief he'll bounce back now that he's presumably healthy.

Two years ago, Tristan Jarry was better than Linus Ullmark.
Last year, Linus Ullmark was better than Tristan Jarry.

There is no stat or measure that reliably predicts which scenario you'll get in 2023-24. But you are willing to pay the cost of a $5 million cap hit, a 23-year-old developing defenseman with NHL experience, and a 2nd round pick in order to get the same historical performance of just paying for the same $5 million cap hit.

It just does not make sense from an asset management standpoint. Ullmark is not Saros or Hellebuyck. He had one outstanding year. He doesn't have the track record. If you're trading for a goalie, get the consistency and the track record, not someone with one outstanding year.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I mean, I said it weeks ago and Emp just said it earlier today: get a new goalie duo. Those two have let us far too many times.

Though if we get a legit starter I'll begrudgingly be okay with CDS.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Assuming Vegas wins the cup this year, here are the last 15 cup winners and how much they were paying for their starting goalie:

-2023: Hill, $2.2 million a year
-2022: Kuemper, $4.5 million a year
-2021: Vasilevskiy, $9.5 million a year
-2020: Vasilevskiy, $9.5 million a year
-2019: Binnington, on his ELC
-2018: Holtby, $6.1 million a year
-2017: Fleury, $5.75 million a year
-2016: Fleury: $5.75 million a year (I don't care if Murray was the "starter" in the playoffs, they were still paying a starting goalie starter money to Fleury)
-2015: Crawford: $6 million a year
-2014: Quick, $5.8 million a year
-2013: Crawford, $6 million a year
-2012: Quick, $5.8 million a year
-2011: Thomas, $5 million a year
-2010: Niemi, on his ELC
-2009: Fleury, $5 million a year

People look at the few exceptions to say "you don't need to spend money on goalies" or "you shouldn't spend money on goalies", while the vast majority of cup winners have starting goalies who were getting at least decent money.

They do though. Ullmark isn’t a game changer and we don’t have the assets to spend a ton on a goaltender who isn’t.

GSAx this year also says Bob’s having the best goaltending performance since it was utilized. Math is messed up.

$5 million a year is not "game changing" money and POJ and a 2nd is not "a ton of assets".

I absolutely hate the ideas regarding goaltending that HFPens has.

Or you could just re-sign Jarry to a similar cap hit as Ullmark with the belief he'll bounce back now that he's presumably healthy.

Two years ago, Tristan Jarry was better than Linus Ullmark.
Last year, Linus Ullmark was better than Tristan Jarry.

There is no stat or measure that reliably predicts which scenario you'll get in 2023-24. But you are willing to pay the cost of a $5 million cap hit, a 23-year-old developing defenseman with NHL experience, and a 2nd round pick in order to get the same historical performance of just paying for the same $5 million cap hit.

It just does not make sense from an asset management standpoint. Ullmark is not Saros or Hellebuyck. He had one outstanding year. He doesn't have the track record. If you're trading for a goalie, get the consistency and the track record, not someone with one outstanding year.

Then re-sign Jarry, that's fine. Again, you keep trying to capitalize on the dumb takes people have had on Jarry on this website in the Ullmark to Jarry comparison and it makes no sense. I would be perfectly fine with keeping Jarry and just upgrading on DeSmith with a stronger 1B.

I want to see them make changes to their goalies, but "go with shitty goalies in net and hope it works" is an absolutely unacceptable outcome to me. Ullmark is so appealing because he was terrific this year and is a comparable goalie in talent to Jarry. Getting Ullmark would be the closest thing to keeping a good starting goalie that they can do right now, unless they get creative and find some way to get Hellebuyck.

I would rather not re-sign Jarry because this team is stale and needs to make changes. But if the option is to rely on someone like Varlamov, Korpisalo or Hill as their 1A or starter, I'm instantly picking to re-sign Jarry. I want them to make changes, but a bad solution is not a change they should be making.

 

[Epic Neal Time]

There are two starters available out there that would make me be OK with keeping CDS. Hellebuyck and Saros. Otherwise dumo both he and Jarry. We need a change.

 

[Empoleon8771]

There are two starters available out there that would make me be OK with keeping CDS. Hellebuyck and Saros. Otherwise dumo both he and Jarry. We need a change.

Honestly I just think they need to move on from DeSmith. Either keep Jarry and get a strong 1B to platoon with him or move on from Jarry and just redo the goalie position entirely.

Hellebuyck-DeSmith would be a good goalie duo but I just don't want DeSmith on this team anymore. He has been too unreliable for my liking, even as a backup.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Honestly I just think they need to move on from DeSmith. Either keep Jarry and get a strong 1B to platoon with him or move on from Jarry and just redo the goalie position entirely.

Hellebuyck-DeSmith would be a good goalie duo but I just don't want DeSmith on this team anymore. He has been too unreliable for my liking, even as a backup.

Plus the Pens don't have the correct assets to get Helley.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Then re-sign Jarry, that's fine. Again, you keep trying to capitalize on the dumb takes people have had on Jarry on this website in the Ullmark to Jarry comparison and it makes no sense. I would be perfectly happy to keep Jarry and just upgrade on DeSmith with a stronger 1B.

I want to see them make changes to their goalies, but "go with shitty goalies in net and hope it works" is an absolutely unacceptable outcome to me. Ullmark is so appealing because he was terrific this year and is a comparable goalie in talent to Jarry.

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating for the status quo and I'm not advocating for just throwing anything in there.

There is a middle ground. I think you can solve the problem in free agency without giving up assets, That's why I proposed Varlamov/Korpisalo. Varlamov has been extremely steady. You know what you're getting night after night, year after year. Korpisalo has a bit more variability due to performance and injury, but could be trending back upward AND is used to a platoon.

Maybe there are other options, including keeping Jarry and upgrading on DeSmith.

My only argument is that trading assets needs to come at a significant upgrade, someone who is clearly proven and capable of handling the net 55-60 games a year. I don't believe Ullmark meets that threshold despite his award-winning season.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating for the status quo and I'm not advocating for just throwing anything in there.

There is a middle ground. I think you can solve the problem in free agency without giving up assets, That's why I proposed Varlamov/Korpisalo. Varlamov has been extremely steady. You know what you're getting night after night, year after year. Korpisalo has a bit more variability due to performance and injury, but could be trending back upward AND is used to a platoon.

Maybe there are other options, including keeping Jarry and upgrading on DeSmith.

My only argument is that trading assets needs to come at a significant upgrade, someone who is clearly proven and capable of handling the net 55-60 games a year.

Which the Penguins do not have even close to the assets to be able to acquire.

You're saying there is a "middle ground" but your two options are "mortgage the future for a proven starter or don't trade for a goalie". Which the Penguins can't even do, due to the mentioned lack of assets.

I have been a huge advocate for Varlamov, but he's not an acceptable 1A solution. Neither is Korpisalo, Hill, Andersen, Talbot or whoever else. If you're not willing to pay assets for someone like Ullmark because he's not a significant upgrade, the sole acceptable solution is re-signing Jarry. Which I am fine with, like I said, but a majority of people here wouldn't be fine with that. Gambling on a 35 year old goalie and a guy who has had more bad seasons than good seasons in the NHL as their goalie tandem is a flat out unacceptable solution for the goalie position.

 

[FSGDontScrewUp]

Keep Jarry on a cheap contract

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Which the Penguins do not have even close to the assets to be able to acquire.

You're saying there is a "middle ground" but your two options are "mortgagee the future for a proven starter or don't trade for a goalie". Which the Penguins can't even do, due to the mentioned lack of assets.

I have been a huge advocate for Varlamov, but he's not an acceptable 1A solution. Neither is Korpisalo, Hill, Andersen, Talbot or whoever else. If you're not willing to pay assets for someone like Ullmark because he's not a significant upgrade, the sole acceptable solution is re-signing Jarry. Which I am fine with, like I said, but a majority of people here wouldn't be fine with that. Gambling on a 35 year old goalie and a guy who has had more bad seasons than good seasons in the NHL as their goalie tandem is a flat out unacceptable solution for the goalie position.

The middle ground includes bringing back Jarry with a different back-up or even a full 1B.

And I think it's abundantly clear by now that the majority of people on here don't agree with my take on Mike Sullivan and NHL coaches in general, so it won't bother me one bit to add another topic to that list.

I think there are other scenarios out there that could also be possible. Like, you could acquire Gibson if - and only if - it's for something like Granlund and a 3rd round pick (or prospect equivalent), and then go out and get a Varlamov type as a back-up, I'd be interested.

But I just don't feel like giving up significant assets for a goalie unless it's a Hellebuyck or Saros, and that deal is pretty unlikely for the Penguins. So it's likely the free agency route, and that could include bringing Jarry back.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The middle ground includes bringing back Jarry with a different back-up or even a full 1B.

And I think it's abundantly clear by now that the majority of people on here don't agree with my take on Mike Sullivan and NHL coaches in general, so it won't bother me one bit to add another topic to that list.

I think there are other scenarios out there that could also be possible. Like, you could acquire Gibson if - and only if - it's for something like Granlund and a 3rd round pick (or prospect equivalent), and then go out and get a Varlamov type as a back-up, I'd be interested.

But I just don't feel like giving up significant assets for a goalie unless it's a Hellebuyck or Saros, and that deal is pretty unlikely for the Penguins. So it's likely the free agency route, and that could include bringing Jarry back.

Okay so we actually agree on most of this here, we just disagree on whether we'd be willing to trade for a Jarry-caliber goalie instead re-signing Jarry. I just think they need a Jarry caliber guy and would sooner go the trade route over going with an unacceptable solution in free agency for cheap.

If they can't go the trade route, they need to have something like a Jarry-Varlamov tandem.

 

[66-30-33]

Oo I agree with you overall too. Look at what Boston did. I think they are good example.

Lindholm
Ullmark
Hall

All helped them retool on the fly. Funny enough those are exactly the pieces the pens need. Top 4 LD. Top 6 LW and goalie. If we did those moves instead of Boston we would have been in a much better situation.

I said a long time ago I wished Pens gave up the assets to land Rakell AND Lindholm. That would have changed things a bit having a Lindholm-Letang pair instead of a Dumo-Letang pair.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

One more thing - Ideally, you move on from Jarry and DeSmith. I'm ready for a completely different look in goal, as I've stated before.

But this isn't an ideal situation, and the goalie market is really unsettled. So the most pragmatic approach wins out for me, even if that means bringing back Jarry with a different partner.

 

[66-30-33]

I mean, I said it weeks ago and Emp just said it earlier today: get a new goalie duo. Those two have let us far too many times.

Though if we get a legit starter I'll begrudgingly be okay with CDS.

Helle-DeSmith

or

Swayman-Korpisalo?

 

[Randy Butternubs]

One more thing - Ideally, you move on from Jarry and DeSmith. I'm ready for a completely different look in goal, as I've stated before.

But this isn't an ideal situation, and the goalie market is really unsettled. So the most pragmatic approach wins out for me, even if that means bringing back Jarry with a different partner.

Yes on the new goalie duo. No to Jarry coming back. Maybe at $3M or less.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Unrelated to the goalie talk, but I find it so cute when other fans try to act like they know the Penguins cap situation better than Penguins fans.

I have a Canucks fan insisting the Penguins can afford to bring in JT Miller because "you can just play Carter at 3C and Rutta at 2LD"

Yes on the new goalie duo. No to Jarry coming back. Maybe at $3M or less.

They need a new goalie duo but a shitty goalie duo isn't really a good outcome either.

I'm all on the Ullmark train as I've said, but if you can't get him and are just looking at the UFA options, I don't like any of them more than just re-signing Jarry.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

They need a new goalie duo but a shitty goalie duo isn't really a good outcome either

To be fair they already have had a ahitty goalie duo the last few years. Well, at least when it mattered most.

 

[Nordekes]

Sign me up for Trent Frederic in the bottom 6