Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[SEALBound]

Florida has a prime Barkov #2 pick, Lundell was a high pick at #12. Ekblad was a #1 pick, Huberdeau was a #3 pick and became Tkachuk.

Florida's core came from the draft still.

Barkov
Ekblad
Huberdeau -> Tkachuk

You cant pair them with Seattle.

That's not necessarily what I was arguing, so I don't disagree with you. Nearly every Cup winner in recent years has been propelled by a core of high draft picks. 100% agree. What I was more suggesting was that, is Dubas and FSG going to allow for the 3-4 year period in the gutter to get those picks? Or do they go the Seattle/St Louis-ish route where you continually restock on quality players from trades, FA, and complement them with the higher-ish draft picks? I'm not saying either way is preferable.

How about when the core guys aren't gone but largely a former shell of their prime? Because at their age I fully expect a significant drop from at least two of them. Beyond that you can't expect Sid or Geno to play every game.

I don't think we will see a drop in Sid quite honestly. I'm not even sure Letang becomes a liability at $6mil either. Geno, it's possible he looks human towards the end of his deal.

 

[Gurglesons]

@Peat i was listening to a podcast, I forget which and they brought up bonus overages and how teams make use them for one year deals to give players like Connor Brown or Max Patches more money that could be deferred to next year if they hit certain numbers.

So we give Connor a base line 2 million dollar deal that could be worth 4.5 that hits our cap next year if he hits the bonuses.

Could help us sign say both Bunting and Brown via your discussion about cap and opportunity from a few days ago..

 

[Darren McCord]

That's not necessarily what I was arguing, so I don't disagree with you. Nearly every Cup winner in recent years has been propelled by a core of high draft picks. 100% agree. What I was more suggesting was that, is Dubas and FSG going to allow for the 3-4 year period in the gutter to get those picks? Or do they go the Seattle/St Louis-ish route where you continually restock on quality players from trades, FA, and complement them with the higher-ish draft picks? I'm not saying either way is preferable.

I don't think we will see a drop in Sid quite honestly. I'm not even sure Letang becomes a liability at $6mil either. Geno, it's possible he looks human towards the end of his deal.

Oo I agree with you overall too. Look at what Boston did. I think they are good example.

Lindholm
Ullmark
Hall

All helped them retool on the fly. Funny enough those are exactly the pieces the pens need. Top 4 LD. Top 6 LW and goalie. If we did those moves instead of Boston we would have been in a much better situation.

Im actually intrigued by this off season due to the cap space we have. If Granlund is actually bought out we would have approx $24 million to spend. Obviously depends on if anything happens to Carter or Petry but I assume this is most likely how the money will be spent.


Forwards - Approx 13-15 Million to spend

Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell
$5-6 Million LW - Malkin - Rust
$3-4 Million LW - $4-5 Million Center - Nylander
DOC (1.2) - Poehling (1.2) - Carter


Defense - Maybe $4 Million here for LD depth
Petterson-Letang
POJ-Petry (Trade possible?)
Chad-Ruuta

Goalie
$4-6.5 Million Starter
Desmith

Chad-Ruuta

I vomited at that

 

[SEALBound]

@Peat i was listening to a podcast, I forget which and they brought up bonus overages and how teams make use them for one year deals to give players like Connor Brown or Max Patches more money that could be deferred to next year if they hit certain numbers.

So we give Connor a base line 2 million dollar deal that could be worth 4.5 that hits our cap next year if he hits the bonuses.

Could help us sign say both Bunting and Brown via your discussion about cap and opportunity from a few days ago..

Can you only defer bonuses to the following year?

 

[Gurglesons]

Can you only defer bonuses to the following year?

My understanding of how it works is we would make our cap situation to the cap and if they hit their bonuses then they'd go to next year. You can pay them this year, but if you are over the cap they go on a penalty for the next year. See Krejci and Bergeron.

 

[Pens x]

While I agree Severson isn't worth $6M plus at that term, it wouldn't cripple the Pens bc in 2 years it's not going to matter with the window being officially shut.

It would definitely be a different defensive construction vs just a year ago.

I’ve been hearing that crap that it doesn’t matter how long we sign players because we will suck in x amount of years for so long now.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I was talking to some other Kraken fans about goaltending and they actually seem pretty content going into next year without any major additions. The thinking seems to be that Daccord may be a goalie solution for them, so they would rather just enter next year with Grubauer, Daccord and Driedger as their goalie depth. Daccord had a .918 save% in 38 starts in the AHL and is currently carrying Coachella to an AHL championship, so I certainly understand the thought.

Why this is relevant here? I was thinking Seattle would be a super logical trade destination for Ullmark, but it seems like that isn’t the case. Unless Boston trades Ullmark in the division, it seems like the 3 most logical suitors are Pittsburgh, Carolina and LA. I really hope Dubas goes all in on that.

Actually, LA may not have the cap space to take on Ullmark either. They need to sign Vilardi and only have $7.5 million in cap space.

 

[Gurglesons]

I was talking to some other Kraken fans about goaltending and they actually seem pretty content going into next year without any major additions. The thinking seems to be that Daccord may be a goalie solution for them, so they would rather just enter next year with Grubauer, Daccord and Driedger as their goalie depth. Daccord had a .918 save% in 38 starts in the AHL and is currently carrying Coachella to an AHL championship, so I certainly understand the thought.

Why this is relevant here? I was thinking Seattle would be a super logical trade destination for Ullmark, but it seems like that isn’t the case. Unless Boston trades Ullmark in the division, it seems like the 3 most logical suitors are Pittsburgh, Carolina and LA. I really hope Dubas goes all in on that.

Actually, LA may not have the cap space to take on Ullmark either. They need to sign Vilardi and only have $7.5 million in cap space.

I imagine still LA gives away Iafallo or Arvidsson.

Not to mention they effectively have 11 forwards signed and 6 defenseman (if they bump up Spence) to fill out that 6.7 mil

 

[Empoleon8771]

I imagine still LA gives away Iafallo or Arvidsson.

Not to mention they effectively have 11 forwards signed and 6 defenseman (if they bump up Spence) to fill out that 6.7 mil

Yeah if they move one of those two, they can make it work. I imagine Vilardi takes basically Iaffalo’s salary and they move Iaffalo, which will give them the cap space to add a goalie.

But yeah, it seems like mostly a 3 horse race for Ullmark unless other teams clear out some money.

 

[SEALBound]

I was talking to some other Kraken fans about goaltending and they actually seem pretty content going into next year without any major additions. The thinking seems to be that Daccord may be a goalie solution for them, so they would rather just enter next year with Grubauer, Daccord and Driedger as their goalie depth. Daccord had a .918 save% in 38 starts in the AHL and is currently carrying Coachella to an AHL championship, so I certainly understand the thought.

Why this is relevant here? I was thinking Seattle would be a super logical trade destination for Ullmark, but it seems like that isn’t the case. Unless Boston trades Ullmark in the division, it seems like the 3 most logical suitors are Pittsburgh, Carolina and LA. I really hope Dubas goes all in on that.

Actually, LA may not have the cap space to take on Ullmark either. They need to sign Vilardi and only have $7.5 million in cap space.

Continuing down this road, if it turns out to be us vs Carolina, I would suggest that we can offer them Casey Desmith, who can step in and be a very competent backup for them at a decent hit. Carolina can not provide that as I don't see them sending Kochetkov after having just extended him for 4 years. This would save Boston the trouble of having to find a backup in an absolute trash goalie market. Unless you wanted to opt for some random vet for uber cheap like Varly, Raanta, etc.

I imagine still LA gives away Iafallo or Arvidsson.

Not to mention they effectively have 11 forwards signed and 6 defenseman (if they bump up Spence) to fill out that 6.7 mil

Iafallo, maybe.

Arvidsson, no.

 

[Gurglesons]

Continuing down this road, if it turns out to be us vs Carolina, I would suggest that we can offer them Casey Desmith, who can step in and be a very competent backup for them at a decent hit. Carolina can not provide that as I don't see them sending Kochetkov after having just extended him for 4 years. This would save Boston the trouble of having to find a backup in an absolute trash goalie market. Unless you wanted to opt for some random vet for uber cheap like Varly, Raanta, etc.


Iafallo, maybe.

Arvidsson, no.

Arvidsson would be exactly what this team needs. Would absolutely love to have him.

Yeah if they move one of those two, they can make it work. I imagine Vilardi takes basically Iaffalo’s salary and they move Iaffalo, which will give them the cap space to add a goalie.

But yeah, it seems like mostly a 3 horse race for Ullmark unless other teams clear out some money.

Could see them trading Vilardi as well tbh. Would be a long shot and depend on his ask IMO.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Continuing down this road, if it turns out to be us vs Carolina, I would suggest that we can offer them Casey Desmith, who can step in and be a very competent backup for them at a decent hit. Carolina can not provide that as I don't see them sending Kochetkov after having just extended him for 4 years. This would save Boston the trouble of having to find a backup in an absolute trash goalie market. Unless you wanted to opt for some random vet for uber cheap like Varly, Raanta, etc.

Nah, my offer for Ullmark would be POJ and a 2024 2nd. It's 100% an overpayment based on how bad of a cap situation Boston is in, but it's still very good value for a likely Vezina winner making $5 million a year.

I hate JR's idea of "it's better to overpay than to not get a player", but I think it really rings true here because of how discounted Ullmark is. In a normal circumstance, you wouldn't even be able to acquire Ullmark. Boston needing to clear out money while not taking money back greatly limits the market and absolutely tanks Ullmark's value. In that context, I'd easily overpay because POJ and a 2nd for Ullmark is still a great trade for the Penguins.

The Penguins got Gruden and a 2nd for a broken down Murray, being able to turn POJ and a 2nd into a Vezina winner would be a fantastic turn of events even if it's an "overpayment" in the context of Boston's cap situation.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Nah, my offer for Ullmark would be POJ and a 2024 2nd. It's 100% an overpayment based on how bad of a cap situation Boston is in, but it's still very good value for a likely Vezina winner making $5 million a year.

I hate JR's idea of "it's better to overpay than to not get a player", but I think it really rings true here because of how discounted Ullmark is. In a normal circumstance, you wouldn't even be able to acquire Ullmark. Boston needing to clear out money while not taking money back greatly limits the market and absolutely tanks Ullmark's value. In that context, I'd easily overpay because POJ and a 2nd for Ullmark is still a great trade for the Penguins.

The Penguins got Gruden and a 2nd for a broken down Murray, being able to turn POJ and a 2nd into a Vezina winner would be a fantastic turn of events even if it's an "overpayment" in the context of Boston's cap situation.

Like with all goalies, my concern with Ullmark is how much of his success is due to the Bruins system versus him being as good as his numbers look, and how that translates to a team that plays shitty defense and where he'll have to be a star on a lot of nights.

In other words, is he a great systems goalie? Or is he a great goalie who can dominate regardless of how good or bad defensively a team is?

 

[Gurglesons]

Like with all goalies, my concern with Ullmark is how much of his success is due to the Bruins system versus him being as good as his numbers look, and how that translates to a team that plays shitty defense and where he'll have to be a star on a lot of nights.

In other words, is he a great systems goalie? Or is he a great goalie who can dominate regardless of how good or bad defensively a team is?

Ullmark was decent in Buf. Issue is the injury history especially if you have Desmith behind him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Like with all goalies, my concern with Ullmark is how much of his success is due to the Bruins system versus him being as good as his numbers look, and how that translates to a team that plays shitty defense and where he'll have to be a star on a lot of nights.

In other words, is he a great systems goalie? Or is he a great goalie who can dominate regardless of how good or bad defensively a team is?

Ullmark had a 42.4 GSAx last year.

He's a great goalie. He was a solid 1A in Buffalo then went to another level after coming to Boston. He has a career .919 save% that is split about evenly between Boston and Buffalo and hasn't had below a .915 save% in a season since 2018-2019, which includes 2 years with Buffalo and 2 years with Boston.

Ullmark was decent in Buf. Issue is the injury history especially if you have Desmith behind him.

I think you ideally still target a backup goalie upgrade on DeSmith, but I think Ullmark-DeSmith would likely be a fine goalie tandem.

Frankly they should look to move on from DeSmith because he has been ultra unreliable for the Penguins. He's just as much to blame for the failures of the 2021 and 2022 playoffs as Jarry is IMO. Just wipe the slate clean with their goalies IMO.

 

[Gurglesons]

but I doubt we do.Ullmark had a 42.4 GSAx last year.

He's a great goalie. He was a solid 1A in Buffalo then went to another level after coming to Boston. He has a career .919 save% that is split about evenly between Boston and Buffalo and hasn't had below a .915 save% in a season since 2018-2019, which includes 2 years with Buffalo and 2 years with Boston.



I think you ideally still target a backup goalie upgrade on DeSmith, but I think Ullmark-DeSmith would likely be a fine goalie tandem.

Frankly they should look to move on from DeSmith because he has been ultra unreliable for the Penguins. He's just as much to blame for the failures of the 2021 and 2022 playoffs as Jarry is IMO. Just wipe the slate clean with their goalies IMO.

They should do that but I doubt we do.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

I'm not against a major move for a goalie like Ullmark, Gibson, Hellyebuck, etc.

But I'm leaning more towards trying for something like a Varlamov/Korpisalo tandem. Split the starts down the middle, whoever is hot gets the net in the playoffs. Let Jarry walk, trade DeSmith for picks.

I think you could probably get Varlamov for 2 years, $4 million per year and Korpisalo at 2 years, $2.5 million per year.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Daccord had a .918 save% in 38 starts in the AHL and is currently carrying Coachella to an AHL championship, so I certainly understand the thought.

Uh excuse me sir I think you meant to say head coach Dan Bylsma is carrying Coachella to an AHL championship OK?

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm not against a major move for a goalie like Ullmark, Gibson, Hellyebuck, etc.

But I'm leaning more towards trying for something like a Varlamov/Korpisalo tandem. Split the starts down the middle, whoever is hot gets the net in the playoffs. Let Jarry walk, trade DeSmith for picks.

I think you could probably get Varlamov for 2 years, $4 million per year and Korpisalo at 2 years, $2.5 million per year.

If you could get Ullmark for POJ and a 2nd, you'd have to be insane to say no to it.

Why would you rather pay Varlamov on a 2 year, $4 million AAV deal over paying a minimal price for Ullmark on a 2 year, $5 million AAV deal?

 

[DesertedPenguin]

If you could get Ullmark for POJ and a 2nd, you'd have to be insane to say no to it.

Why would you rather pay Varlamov on a 2 year, $4 million AAV deal over paying a minimal price for Ullmark on a 2 year, $5 million AAV deal?

Because Ullmark's injury history concerns me.

He is better than Varlamov. He is younger. But he doesn't have the durability at age 29 that makes me feel comfortable giving up two valuable assets for.

He's played two total seasons where he's appeared in 40+ games. And in his highest workload season, he was considerably worse in the playoffs and blamed it on an undisclosed injury.

If you're hurt to the point where your save percentage is 40 points later and your GAA is doubled, why are you still forcing yourself into the lineup? It's like Jarry down the stretch this season. He says he's playing hurt. OK, I get it, but you're hurting the team.

So the acquisition cost is concerning. I'd rather spend just $$$ on goaltending rather than give up assets.

Varlamov is about as consistent as it gets, even at age 35. You know you can get 35-45 games out of him and get solid goaltending.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Because Ullmark's injury history concerns me.

He is better than Varlamov. He is younger. But he doesn't have the durability at age 29 that makes me feel comfortable giving up two valuable assets for.

He's played two total seasons where he's appeared in 40+ games. And in his highest workload season, he was considerably worse in the playoffs and blamed it on an undisclosed injury.

If you're hurt to the point where your save percentage is 40 points later and your GAA is doubled, why are you still forcing yourself into the lineup? It's like Jarry down the stretch this season. He says he's playing hurt. OK, I get it, but you're hurting the team.

So the acquisition cost is concerning. I'd rather spend just $$$ on goaltending rather than give up assets.

Varlamov is about as consistent as it gets, even at age 35. You know you can get 35-45 games out of him and get solid goaltending.

That's not solely an injury-related thing, that's because he has mostly been a platoon goalie over his career. Not only that, but 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 were both shortened seasons as well.

Mentioning injury reasons as why a 2nd and POJ as an acquisition cost is "concerning" is craziness. Ullmark is literally going to win the Vezina this year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Linus Ullmark Injuries - NHL | FOX Sports

Learn about Linus Ullmark's injury status at FOX Sports.

www.foxsports.com

Here are Ullmark's career injuries according to this. Since the 2018-2019 season, here are all of his injuries:

-Lower body injury on 1/28/2020. Missed about 6 weeks.
-Lower body injury on 2/26/2021. Missed about a month.
-Lower body injury on 4/16/2021. Missed the rest of the season (3 weeks).
-Undisclosed injury on 4/18/2022. Did not miss any time.
-Upper body injury on 11/25/2022. Missed about a week.
-Undisclosed injury in the playoffs in 2023. Did not miss any time but struggled.

To me, that's not really a goalie with an injury track record that scares me. That's a fairly standard injury track record, outside of his 2020-2021 season (which may be able to be explained due to the hyper condensed schedule).

I think Penguins fans are being pretty unreasonable about addressing the goalie position. You simultaneously have people who refuse to spend money and also refuse to want any player with any sort of red flags. Ullmark is going to win the Vezina this year, has a long track record of being a good starting goalie (even before this year) and he's going to cost very little to acquire. I just can't fathom a serious justification for signing a 35 year old Varlamov to start for them over trading for Ullmark. I want Varlamov to be a 1B to Ullmark, but not as a stater.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

That's not an injury-related thing, that's because he has mostly been a platoon goalie over his career. Not only that, but 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 were both shortened seasons as well.

Mentioning injury reasons as why a 2nd and POJ as an acquisition cost is "concerning" is craziness. Ullmark is literally going to win the Vezina this year.

He missed a month in 2020-21 with a leg injury, among other issues in his career. Given his workload, it's a concern. Not a dealbreaker, but a concern, given the Penguins' recent issues.

He's going to win the Vezina, but his performance was severely influenced by the way Boston plays. Swayman also had ridiculous numbers and actually had double the shutouts.

On a different team, Ullmark's numbers come back to earth and he does not have the resume that compels me to move assets for him.

GOALIE A:
207 games, 116-63-16, .919 SV%, 2.50 GAA
8 playoff games, 3-5-0, .888 SV%, 3.54 GAA

GOALIE B:
206 games, 117-60-20, .914 SV%, 2.65 GAA
8 playoff games, 2-6-0, .891 SV%, 3.71 GAA

Goalie A is Ullmark.
Goalie B is Tristan Jarry.

What you are proposing is terrible asset management with zero actual improvement at the position.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

I imagine still LA gives away Iafallo or Arvidsson.

Not to mention they effectively have 11 forwards signed and 6 defenseman (if they bump up Spence) to fill out that 6.7 mil

LAK have quite a few wingers I would love to have.

Fiala Arvidsson Iafallo Kempe Vilardi

Gimme any 2 of them and I'd be ecstatic

 

[Empoleon8771]

Also if we want to talk about injury histories regarding goalies, you really shouldn't look at Korpisalo's injury history:

Korpisalo out for season for Blue Jackets with hip injury | NHL.com

Goalie expected to need six months to recover after surgery

www.nhl.com

Korpisalo out 4-6 weeks for Blue Jackets following knee surgery | NHL.com

Goalie sustained injury during shootout in loss to Blackhawks

www.nhl.com

He missed a month in 2020-21 with a leg injury, among other issues in his career. Given his workload, it's a concern. Not a dealbreaker, but a concern, given the Penguins' recent issues.

He's going to win the Vezina, but his performance was severely influenced by the way Boston plays. Swayman also had ridiculous numbers and actually had double the shutouts.

On a different team, Ullmark's numbers come back to earth and he does not have the resume that compels me to move assets for him.

GOALIE A:
207 games, 116-63-16, .919 SV%, 2.50 GAA
8 playoff games, 3-5-0, .888 SV%, 3.54 GAA

GOALIE B:
206 games, 117-60-20, .914 SV%, 2.65 GAA
8 playoff games, 2-6-0, .891 SV%, 3.71 GAA

Goalie A is Ullmark.
Goalie B is Tristan Jarry.

What you are proposing is terrible asset management with zero actual improvement at the position.

This is bullshit. Ullmark had a GSAx of 42 this year. Saying "his performance was severely influenced by the way Boston plays" is bullshit. He was just as good as Saros was last year based on GSAx, he was the best goalie in hockey period. Him being on Boston let him put up ludicrous numbers, but that performance on any team would at minimum net him a Vezina nomination.

Swayman had a .920 save%. Ullmark had a .938 save%. Saying that Swayman also had "ridiculous numbers" is just fake news, there's no other way to put it. Ullmark was by far the best goalie in hockey last year, it's not even a contest. Swayman was great on a terrific defensive team. Ullmark was the best goalie in hockey on a terrific defensive team.

And you're bringing up Jarry's numbers as if Jarry has been a bad goalie over his career. Jarry hasn't, he has been a very successful starting goalie over his career. If I can get a goalie as good as Jarry that is coming off a Vezina season for very cheap, I'd do that insantly. Trying to capitalize on Penguins fans' hyperbole regarding Jarry is a terrible argument.