Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

It's not just Granlund though, a lot of teams have bad contracts to dump. The Islanders are going to have to dump Bailey's contract, for example.

But hey at least they signed Nelson to a nice deal!

*checks notes*

Oh...

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah like the Hawks have so much cap space that they still have the ability to basically take on every contract dump realistically in the market, the Athanasiou contract is just a bit weird though because they're giving him an equivalent "bad contract" while getting nothing for it. Like 2 years at $4.25 million for Athanasiou seems like the kind of deal a good team would be trying to get out of, but they just gave it to Athanasiou for shits and giggles.

It's whatever because it won't hurt them, just a bit odd to see because there are so many bad contracts out there that could come with assets. Although looking again, it seems like teams are looking to dump bad goalie contracts more than bad forward contracts.

 

[Gurglesons]

Grans isn't a "nothing prospect"

Yes he is lol.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Although looking again, it seems like teams are looking to dump bad goalie contracts more than bad forward contracts.

Ha... feel like there is a lesson, there.

 

[eXile3]

Granted Athanasiou has become a substantially better player analytically than he used to be, I remember he used to be "he sucks outside of speed and scoring goals" back in like 2020. But still though, $4.25 million AAV for 40 points?

When he was traded from the Wings to the Oilers, the Oilers paid 2 2nds for him as he had 24 points in 46 games while being a -45 with horrendous analytics. I forgot about that deal, it became even worse when COVID hit.

Lol. How do these GMs keep getting jobs?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

But hey at least they signed Nelson to a nice deal!

*checks notes*

Oh...

That Bo Horvat deal is gonna age like chicken that fell outta the grocery bag and slipped under the seat of your car in the summer.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

You do realize that was 5 and 6 years ago. Granlund did near as good playing with Zucker and Koivu. Had a 64 point season since with Nashville.

Down year last year Forsberg (only 50 GP) was out Duchene missed time. Barkov/Huberdeau a notch over Duchene/Forsberg who were more PPG guys than those two.

So you say he sucked, but 11 goals and 53 assists sucks?

What's Dadonov doing these days? Granlund put up 64 and was pacing for 50 with Forsberg missing significant time.

Granlund had 28PPPs that year.
He's not gonna get PP1 here. He's gonna get the Sullivan special on L3, with worse linemates, in the 70% D-zone starts range.

You don't pay 5M for like 25-35 points and very likely defensive regression.

 

[Peat]

Tbf, Chicago are still going to have the 2nd most cap space in the league after this, and there's only so many bad contracts to go around. He's gone before they need to be good.

You could argue that if there's teams that think they'll be so short of NHLers they'll do that that Granlund has non-negative value... well, here's hoping.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Let's say you do Granlund and New Jersey's 3rd to San Jose for Simek and stash Simek in the AHL. That saves $3.9 million in cap space and gives you what I'd call a pretty solid 9th defenseman in WBS. If you can recover at least some of that pick value by trading DeSmith, you're left with $25.9 million in cap space with needing:

-A starter and a backup goalie
-A top-4 LD
-2nd line LW
-Entire 3rd line
-4th line LW and C
-1 additional extra F or D

Even though that's a lot of holes to fill, you can likely fill the extra F/D and the 4th liner spots with $3 million total. Having effectively $23 million for 2 goalies, a top-4 LD, a 2LW and a 3rd line seems pretty doable.

Speaking of the extra F spot, I'm not entirely sure I understand why Nylander got a 1-way deal when the Penguins didn't even have a GM. He seems pretty destined to end up in WBS next year. Why sign him so early but not like Puustinen or Smith? Nylander doesn't really fit their bottom-6 at all and doesn't play a particularly desirable position.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Granlund had 28PPPs that year.
He's not gonna get PP1 here. He's gonna get the Sullivan special on L3, with worse linemates, in the 70% D-zone starts range.

You don't pay 5M for like 25-35 points and very likely defensive regression.

Both Rust and Zucker had success with minimal PP success. Both make 5.0+ so yes, he can be a 40/50 guy in a top 6 role.

 

[Peat]

You do realize that was 5 and 6 years ago. Granlund did near as good playing with Zucker and Koivu. Had a 64 point season since with Nashville.

Down year last year Forsberg (only 50 GP) was out Duchene missed time. Barkov/Huberdeau a notch over Duchene/Forsberg who were more PPG guys than those two.

So you say he sucked, but 11 goals and 53 assists sucks?

What's Dadonov doing these days? Granlund put up 64 and was pacing for 50 with Forsberg missing significant time.

1) I do not believe that what a player did 5 or 6 years ago in the NHL is relevant to who they are today unless they are clearly the same athlete, which is rare and not the case with Granlund.

2) As a high water mark for a 3 year period of playing first line minutes and PP, 64 points is at best mediocre. Break down the year and you start seeing things that sucked such as 11 goals at all strengths, and 29 points in 1100 minutes, mostly with very good players.

The one thing he did well that year he did at an elite rate - Power Play Assists. Top 5. But as he hasn't been anywhere near that rate of scoring since 2018-19, it's best treated as one of those random aberrations hockey throws up.

So his best year consisted of him mostly sucking combined with a freak performance. And his other years are kinda sucked and absolutely sucked.

It should also be noted that he played more with Forsberg at 5v5 than any other forward last year. Did he put up fantastic rates of scoring with him that were betrayed by playing with lesser talented? At 1.12 p/60, no he didn't.

3) A further not amazing half-season saw Dadonov valued at Shea Weber's LTIR, then a struggling Gurianov after being retained at 50%. If people want to use that as proof for the idea we might get something for Granlund at 50%, I guess it's not utterly illogical.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think Granlund would probably put up around 45 points if you stuck him in the top-6 over a full season, and he certainly wouldn't be the worst player the Penguins have had in their top-6 with Crosby and Malkin. I think you could make the case that Granlund would provide more in the top-6 than Zucker did between 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 or Kapanen in 2021-2022. But with that being said, why wouldn't you just move him and bring in an actual top-6 option when you have the ability and flexibility to do so?

Saying "I guess we'll just play Granlund on Malkin's line" is what you'd do if you were cash strapped and didn't have the flexibility to bring in another option, but that's not the case this year. It was the case when the Penguins had to go with Jussi Jokinen on Malkin's wing, but they have the ability to add pieces this year. They don't have to go with a shitty option just because it's the easiest option.

Buying him out is the worst solution IMO, but even if you go that route, you're adding $4.2 million in cap space that can be spent on a more legitimate top-6 option (like Bunting), and the cap will likely increase enough over the next 3 years that Granlund's buyout penalty won't hurt them much. I just don't see a situation where Granlund on the team next year makes sense, even the worst case scenario of buying him out is still better than just playing him in the top-6.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Back to the goaltending talk, I just discovered something about Ullmark that is super interesting: Ullmark has a full NMC right now that turns into a 16 team NTC in July. The Bruins likely wouldn't be able to trade him before July due to that NMC, and the market they'll be working with will be really limited by Ullmark's NTC. If Ullmark doesn't want to leave Boston, which I imagine is the case, he can make it ultra difficult for the Bruins to trade him.

I think any Ullmark trade is going to look very similar to Vegas trading Fleury, they'll give him up for nothing and they'll just take the cap space. I just don't see any situation where the Bruins are in a negotiating position to get anything back for him. It's either that or lose Swayman, I don't see any other outcome here. I think I may jump on the Ullmark or Swayman train as the goalie option I like because Boston might just not have another choice other than work with the Penguins.

Edit: man, go look at the Bruins cap structure. They are so f***ed for next year. They have $4.9 million in cap space with Swayman as a RFA and half their forward group still not filled out. I'm struggling to even see a way to make a full roster, let alone fit both Swayman and Ullmark under the cap.

 

[The Old Master]

In a vacuum, Jarry's numbers aren't horrific and he's earned the contract you stated.

But I think it's best for all parties to move on. I don't think this team has the confidence in him any longer. So it really does go deeper than stats in this case.

that can change fast, it would only take a short hot streak.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

Both Rust and Zucker had success with minimal PP success. Both make 5.0+ so yes, he can be a 40/50 guy in a top 6 role.

The problem is he isn't a top 6 player that we want. His style is not what you want an aging Geno or Crosby playing with.

Granlund is fine.......he's just not fine here.

Losing last years Zucker and gaining Granlund is a pretty significant step back.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

That Bo Horvat deal is gonna age like chicken that fell outta the grocery bag and slipped under the seat of your car in the summer.

Well to be fair that's just what you pay a consistent 70-80 point player in his prime.

*checks notes*

Oh...

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Well to be fair that's just what you pay a consistent 70-80 point player in his prime.

*checks notes*

Oh...

My favorite part about it is that both Lou *and* Horvat knew it was an awful deal right off the bat.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I meant Horvat and not Nelson in my top post BTW. I'm just dumb.

I think you guys figured that out, though. Both parts.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I actually just realized the Penguins don't have the picks needed to offersheet Swayman at what he'd realistically cost, so I don't think that's actually much of an option. They don't have their 3rd anymore, they traded it in the McGinn for Kulikov deal.

It sucks that they didn't use Vegas' 2024 3rd instead for that deal. Having a 1st and 3rd to be able to threaten Boston with a Swayman offersheet would be a massive negotiating tool. I'd actually trade New Jersey's 2023 3rd for their 2024 3rd back just to have that weapon in my back pocket.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

It'd be cool if more team used offer sheets. I feel like the whole unwritten rule about not offer sheeting a guy is stupid. If it's so frowned upon, then just get rid of the option entirely.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It'd be cool if more team used offer sheets. I feel like the whole unwritten rule about not offer sheeting a guy is stupid. If it's so frowned upon, then just get rid of the option entirely.

I think it's more that offersheets so rarely work and the negative reptuation for offersheeting someone isn't worth it when it's inevitable that it's going to fail. But Swayman in Boston? He's practically begging to get an offersheet this off-season. They can't even trade Ullmark unless Ullmark allows it.

I think Swayman ends up getting traded at the draft for a return similar to what his offersheet compensation would look like. Boston did the same exact thing in the past when they traded Dougie Hamilton when he was at risk of getting an offersheet.

I'd offer the Penguins 2024 1st and New Jersey's 2023 3rd (which they have right now) for Swayman at the draft and basically say "if you won't take this, we're going to offersheet Swayman the second free agency opens".

 

[Sideline]

Crazy idea: Granlund + 14th overall for DeBrincat. Sign Kane in free agency. Geno plays centre and they never get a D zone start. We lose every game 8 to 7, but I enjoy watching all of them.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I proposed a deal on the main board that I think I'm going to get absolutely grilled for: DeSmith and 14th overall for Swayman and Hall. I think it makes sense in the context of how bad Boston's cap situation is, but I doubt most fans will view it like that.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Both Rust and Zucker had success with minimal PP success. Both make 5.0+ so yes, he can be a 40/50 guy in a top 6 role.

We should be projecting what we expect to happen and not some fantasy timeline where Sullivan uses him like Nashville did.
The only way he becomes a top 6 regular is through lengthy injuries ahead of him in the lineup, and even then Sullivan may continue to use him as a shutdown guy and put Nylander or Puustinen on L2.
Odds are decent that Zucker comes back. If he doesn't, Dubas will find a replacement. He alluded to this in his presser.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I proposed a deal on the main board that I think I'm going to get absolutely grilled for: DeSmith and 14th overall for Swayman and Hall. I think it makes sense in the context of how bad Boston's cap situation is, but I doubt most fans will view it like that.

I think we'd have to add to that. Someone would outbid us. Swayman's near the top of the goalie market, is young and healthy, and has a very bright future. There's too little quality to go around for all the hungry potential suitors.