Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[AuroraBorealis]

What Emp is trying to say is that there are other smooth brained GMs out there who are disconnected from reality and can be exploited, much like Hextall was.
A lot of people discuss GMing under the assumption that all of them think rationally.
Sometimes their IQ is just deficient and they let their feelings guide them.

 

[Peat]

Who did Dadonov play with?

Right... all his best years were with Barkov and Huberdeau. A resurgence in Vegas

And he was great with Barkov and Huberdeau!

Granlund sucked with Duchene and Forsberg.

It's one thing to assign mild value to a guy who was great with Barkov and Huberdeau a couple of years ago (as was the case when Dadonov was traded). It's another to assign it to someone who sucked with Duchene and Forsberg a couple of years ago.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yeah.

All the more reason to glass the deserts and boil the seas on this team's pro scouting staff, Emp.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think people need to realize that most GM decisions aren't made by just the GM, unless you believe that Philly story about Hextall going rogue and selecting Patrick is a common practice. GMs can't go around and watch every single player on every single team, so they have to rely on their assistant GMs and scouts to give them accurate scouting reports. These kind of decisions are never just made by the GM. What does that mean? There was more than 1 person who wanted the Penguins to acquire Granlund.

It's the same thing as when Toronto traded for Matt Murray last off-season. That wasn't just Dubas saying "lol he's from my junior team, so I'm trading for him". That move had to get approved by Shanahan, who seems like a major meddler with the Leafs, and had to get insight from their scouts on what they thought of Murray. Another example was when JR traded Despres for Lovejoy, do you think that was just JR or do you think there were more people there (such as Guerin, who was rumored to be a big supporter of that deal) who supported that deal?

A GM has the final say for the most part, but I'd bet it is extremely rare for a GM to make a trade without the consent of his supporting cast. And following that, I'd bet that it's extremely rare that the only people who would support acquiring a player were only on 1 team.

Okay, and the AGM was also fired for signing off on it. Like, that was the reason Pryor was fired.

So yes, I'd say the hockey world thought a 2nd for Granlund with no retention was 5 standard deviations above what his actual value was.

 

[Darren McCord]

Granlund had great chemistry with Zucker when Koivu was their center in Minny. I really think Zucker - Malkin - Granlund is worth a look before we spend assets to move him. We have plenty of cap space to work with even if Zucker comes back around 5M, no need to make rash decisions based on 20 games last season.

You don't have plenty of time though. You can't buy out during the season. if you dont buy him out and he sucks you are attaching assets to move him.

Buy him out. The cap hit is miniscule next year. When it goes up to 2million the cap should be going up by like 4mill.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It barely takes any digging. Any scouting report on him should note the role he had (I'd assume). We are a long way removed from 50 points being acceptable for a guy with his role.

While I probably shouldn't go around underestimating the level of idiocy and incompetence in anything, I would point out that Hextall was under exactly the sort of "do something" pressure that traditionally produces boneheaded blunders in any walk of life, and that the absolute shock with which the move was greeted suggests there really weren't that many agreeing with him. Ditto the lack of Granlund on trade boards leading up to the day (although it's hard to find the Feb ones now).

I think my opinion is basically "you're giving other GMs too much credit for thinking they wouldn't have done the same stupid thing Hextall did".

You're right that Granlund's numbers fall apart once you dig into them more, although I'd still say he was a great PP producer in 2021-2022. You're right his analytics suck. But my point is that a lot of other teams don't make decisions based on those kind of analytics or more in-depth numbers. They rely on the eye test of themselves, their scouts and their assistant GMs.

What Emp is trying to say is that there are other smooth brained GMs out there who are disconnected from reality and can be exploited, much like Hextall was.
A lot of people discuss GMing under the assumption that all of them think rationally.
Sometimes their IQ is just deficient and they let their feelings guide them.

Yes this is 100% spot on.

Okay, and the AGM was also fired for signing off on it. Like, that was the reason Pryor was fired.

So yes, I'd say the hockey world thought a 2nd for Granlund with no retention was 5 standard deviations above what his actual value was.

No, the front office was fired because the Penguins missed the playoffs. Trying to say that they were fired because of the Granlund trade is just making stuff up.

 

[Peat]

I think people need to realize that most GM decisions aren't made by just the GM, unless you believe that Philly story about Hextall going rogue and selecting Patrick is a common practice. GMs can't go around and watch every single player on every single team, so they have to rely on their assistant GMs and scouts to give them accurate scouting reports. These kind of decisions are never just made by the GM. What does that mean? There was more than 1 person who wanted the Penguins to acquire Granlund.

It's the same thing as when Toronto traded for Matt Murray last off-season. That wasn't just Dubas saying "lol he's from my junior team, so I'm trading for him". That move had to get approved by Shanahan, who seems like a major meddler with the Leafs, and had to get insight from their scouts on what they thought of Murray. Another example was when JR traded Despres for Lovejoy, do you think that was just JR or do you think there were more people there (such as Guerin, who was rumored to be a big supporter of that deal) who supported that deal?

A GM has the final say for the most part, but I'd bet it is extremely rare for a GM to make a trade without the consent of his supporting cast. And following that, I'd bet that it's extremely rare that the only people who would support acquiring a player were only on 1 team.

True. Indeed, the media narrative here is that the Granlund acqusition was heavily pushed by Pryor.

But any competent GM should

a) Have someone in their office who can point out the honking great red flags with someone like Granlund
b) Be smart enough to listen to them

Also

c) Not hire personnel stupid enough to think Granlund is the answer. I admit to not watching him, but I fail to believe anyone with his numbers look good. (edit - which answers your latest reply - admittedly without watching, I find it incomprehensible a scout pushed him, particularly for our system).

That one is admittedly harder because everyone makes mistakes. But there has to be a front office that can push back on that. The push was so incredibly easy. It was a tap in.

edit - And as such, I do find it plausible that only guy had a big enough brain fade under the pressure to miss what seemingly everyone else knew.

 

[ChaosAgent]

What Emp is trying to say is that there are other smooth brained GMs out there who are disconnected from reality and can be exploited, much like Hextall was.
A lot of people discuss GMing under the assumption that all of them think rationally.
Sometimes their IQ is just deficient and they let their feelings guide them.

You can exploit them leading up to the deadline, or you can exploit them as a free agent at the start of July.

They are not nearly that stupid in other situations, though it's fun to dunk on them and pretend the average acumen here is higher.

 

[Darren McCord]

I think my opinion is basically "you're giving other GMs too much credit for thinking they wouldn't have done the same stupid thing Hextall did".

You're right that Granlund's numbers fall apart once you dig into them more, although I'd still say he was a great PP producer in 2021-2022. You're right his analytics suck. But my point is that a lot of other teams don't make decisions based on those kind of analytics or more in-depth numbers. They rely on the eye test of themselves, their scouts and their assistant GMs.



Yes this is 100% spot on.



No, the front office was fired because the Penguins missed the playoffs. Trying to say that they were fired because of the Granlund trade is just making stuff up.

Ya but GM's also have the 21 games post deadline to see Granlund producing at a 5g 20pt pace. His value has gone done further since the trade

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Okay, and the AGM was also fired for signing off on it. Like, that was the reason Pryor was fired.

So yes, I'd say the hockey world thought a 2nd for Granlund with no retention was 5 standard deviations above what his actual value was.

It was worse than that. It was Pryor's idea to get him.
Putting his mouthbreather ass aside, the fact that Hextall could be convinced on that front is scary stuff.
All the more reason to rejoice in Dubas' arrival. God, what an upgrade.

 

[Darren McCord]

It was worse than that. It was Pryor's idea to get him.
Putting his mouthbreather ass aside, the fact that Hextall could be convinced on that front is scary stuff.
All the more reason to rejoice in Dubas' arrival. God, what an upgrade.

Hextall did about as little work as he could. He was thrilled to have people suggest moves to him I am sure lol

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah.

All the more reason to glass the deserts and boil the seas on this team's pro scouting staff, Emp.

You won't hear any disagreements from me.

I wish analytics would play a way bigger role in the Penguins front office management, which is why I love what I've heard from Dubas. With those analytics, they wouldn't have JJ's buyout money or Granlund's salary on the books.

I'm just making the point here that Hextall wasn't this uniquely stupid guy that made a trade that zero other people within professional hockey would have supported.

True. Indeed, the media narrative here is that the Granlund acqusition was heavily pushed by Pryor.

But any competent GM should

a) Have someone in their office who can point out the honking great red flags with someone like Granlund
b) Be smart enough to listen to them

Also

c) Not hire personnel stupid enough to think Granlund is the answer. I admit to not watching him, but I fail to believe anyone with his numbers look good.

That one is admittedly harder because everyone makes mistakes. But there has to be a front office that can push back on that. The push was so incredibly easy. It was a tap in.

But that's exactly my point: how many GMs actually have that?

Like I just said above, I'm super excited for Dubas implementing more analytics to the front office management of the Penguins because they desperately need it. But how many teams in the NHL today are actually heavily influenced by analytics? I'd bet less than half. I just can't look at the other GMs in hockey, who are mostly just former players from the 80s or 90s, and think that they'd value analytics over the eye test of their scouts.

22 of 32 GMs are still former players and only 2 played in the analytics era (Drury and Briere). There are still guys like Treliving, Holland, Lamoriello, Nill and Waddell in the NHL too. I just don't think that analytics are popular enough among NHL managements for me to think that they'd have a significant say in a lot of NHL front offices.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Hextall did about as little work as he could. He was thrilled to have people suggest moves to him I am sure lol

A serious candidate for the laziest GM I've ever seen.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

You won't hear any disagreements from me.

I wish analytics would play a way bigger role in the Penguins front office management, which is why I love what I've heard from Dubas. With those analytics, they wouldn't have JJ's buyout money or Granlund's salary on the books.

I'm just making the point here that Hextall wasn't this uniquely stupid guy that made a trade that zero other people within professional hockey would have supported.

I don't think he was uniquely stupid. I agree that there are still plenty of dinosaur GMs in this league that will go with their gut or whatever. But not generally when it comes to a guy like Granlund, I think. What I am most excited for when it comes to FSG/Dubas is the pouring of money into this team's front office, development and scouting. I'd like that to start as soon as possible. When you have the idiot ex AGM's son heading up your amateur scouting and the idiot ex GM's son developing players... the ol magnifying glass needs busted out.

I think Hextall WAS pretty damned low energy, though. And... speculating here... struck me a bit of a pushover. I think he felt the pressure at the TDL and pulled the trigger on a real dumb deal. One I'd love to think this team can get out of clean but I have my doubts. I don't know that any other team makes that exact deal. He isn't the "playoff push" type that the old school GMs would have liked and he's poison to the analytic crowd. I just have a hard time wrapping my brain around another team going out and not just paying a second but paying that for the full contract and nothing else as sweetener.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Speaking of ways to dump Granlund, I asked Sharks fans if they’d do Granlund for Simek and I got a response of yes to that. Simek sucks, he’s a $2.25 million AAV defenseman who’s a borderline NHLer at best, but there are certainly worse ideas to get out of Granlund’s deal.

If you do that swap and just stash Simek in the AHL, I think that gives you some help with D depth while the cap penalty is only about $1.2 million. It’s a little more expensive in the first year than the buyout but that’s it.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

You can exploit them leading up to the deadline, or you can exploit them as a free agent at the start of July.

They are not nearly that stupid in other situations, though it's fun to dunk on them and pretend the average acumen here is higher.

Honestly, a lot of takes from our regular posters are higher level than what I heard at those staff meetings in behind the scenes clips over the years.
Listening to the Canucks staff should terrify their fan base about what the future holds.

Overestimate team management employees at your own peril.

 

[Darren McCord]

Speaking of ways to dump Granlund, I asked Sharks fans if they’d do Granlund for Simek and I got a response of yes to that. Simek sucks, he’s a $2.25 million AAV defenseman who’s a borderline NHLer at best, but there are certainly worse ideas to get out of Granlund’s deal.

If you do that swap and just stash Simek in the AHL, I think that gives you some help with D depth while the cap penalty is only about $1.2 million. It’s a little more expensive in the first year than the buyout but that’s it.

I like this line of thinking and hope Dubas gets creative. This team is 8th in terms of cap space this summer. If he can dump Granlund to he will have a ton to work with.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Honestly, a lot of takes from our regular posters are higher level than what I heard at those staff meetings in behind the scenes clips over the years.
Listening to the Canucks staff should terrify their fan base about what the future holds.

Overestimate team management employees at your own peril.

There is a window where another team may take on the Granlund trade for its own sake. That is March 2024 at the TDL. The risk is we then have to put Granlund in our top 9 between now and then.

The other path to swindling this offseason is making him part of a trade for a big/highly paid player for (our) assets, where he can be obscured as "just the money that has to go back"

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Speaking of ways to dump Granlund, I asked Sharks fans if they’d do Granlund for Simek and I got a response of yes to that. Simek sucks, he’s a $2.25 million AAV defenseman who’s a borderline NHLer at best, but there are certainly worse ideas to get out of Granlund’s deal.

If you do that swap and just stash Simek in the AHL, I think that gives you some help with D depth while the cap penalty is only about $1.2 million. It’s a little more expensive in the first year than the buyout but that’s it.

Something like that would be preferable simply due to it being a two year commitment as opposed to four. But my worry of course is that they actually try to use that player even if/when he proves to be mostly-useless and he ends up being a roadblock. A scenario I'm sure everyone can easily envision.

Honestly, a lot of takes from our regular posters are higher level than what I heard at those staff meetings in behind the scenes clips over the years.
Listening to the Canucks staff should terrify their fan base about what the future holds.

Overestimate team management employees at your own peril.

Yeah. When it comes to a decent chunk of NHL execs and coaches... appeals to authority do little for me. It's a pretty backwards league. Still lots of legacy guys that are long in connections and short on real brainpower and creative thinking.

That said fans are awfully dumb, too. Speaking for myself, at least.

 

[Darren McCord]

Something like that would be preferable simply due to it being a two year commitment as opposed to four. But my worry of course is that they actually try to use that player even if/when he proves to be mostly-useless and he ends up being a roadblock. A scenario I'm sure everyone can easily envision.

Couldn't they make the trade and just buyout simek if they wanted?

 

[Peat]

But that's exactly my point: how many GMs actually have that?

Like I just said above, I'm super excited for Dubas implementing more analytics to the front office management of the Penguins because they desperately need it. But how many teams in the NHL today are actually heavily influenced by analytics? I'd bet less than half. I just can't look at the other GMs in hockey, who are mostly just former players from the 80s or 90s, and think that they'd value analytics over the eye test of their scouts.

22 of 32 GMs are still former players and only 2 played in the analytics era (Drury and Briere). There are still guys like Treliving, Holland, Lamoriello, Nill and Waddell in the NHL too. I just don't think that analytics are popular enough among NHL managements for me to think that they'd have a significant say in a lot of NHL front offices.

This isn't analytics. This isn't the deep magic. This is simply knowing 50 points for a 1st line and 1st unit PP player sucks. Which in itself should have come up on the scouting report.

I am willing to learn that some NHL front offices are deeply incompetent, but this one is shockingly incompetent. If he put up 70 points with shocking analytics, I'd get it.

Also how many old school GMs want a 5'10" 185lb player with a reputation for lacking physicality and speed anyway? It's not like we're talking Jack Johnson who at least had attributes we all know GMs value highly. We're talking the sort of guy that I can't see Lamoriello ever even bringing on board.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

True. Indeed, the media narrative here is that the Granlund acqusition was heavily pushed by Pryor.

But any competent GM should

a) Have someone in their office who can point out the honking great red flags with someone like Granlund
b) Be smart enough to listen to them

Also

c) Not hire personnel stupid enough to think Granlund is the answer. I admit to not watching him, but I fail to believe anyone with his numbers look good. (edit - which answers your latest reply - admittedly without watching, I find it incomprehensible a scout pushed him, particularly for our system).

That one is admittedly harder because everyone makes mistakes. But there has to be a front office that can push back on that. The push was so incredibly easy. It was a tap in.

edit - And as such, I do find it plausible that only guy had a big enough brain fade under the pressure to miss what seemingly everyone else knew.

I've always assumed that Hextall didn't actually want to make any moves at the TDL but started to get some pressure from above to try and "add an impact piece", so he panicked at the last minute and just got someone with "name" recognition to say he added a piece at the deadline.

Unfortunately for us fans, the Penguins, and Granlund himself, Hextall chose arguably the worst fit for what the team needed at that point (or at least for what Sullivan wanted that player to do).

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Couldn't they make the trade and just buyout simek if they wanted?

I guess I don't see why not. But I feel like I don't ever see anything like that so I have my doubts. I actually find it hard to believe that the team would even stash him in the AHL and just take the savings. There would be a "hey we tried" phase, at least.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This isn't analytics. This isn't the deep magic. This is simply knowing 50 points for a 1st line and 1st unit PP player sucks. Which in itself should have come up on the scouting report.

I am willing to learn that some NHL front offices are deeply incompetent, but this one is shockingly incompetent. If he put up 70 points with shocking analytics, I'd get it.

Also how many old school GMs want a 5'10" 185lb player with a reputation for lacking physicality and speed anyway? It's not like we're talking Jack Johnson who at least had attributes we all know GMs value highly. We're talking the sort of guy that I can't see Lamoriello ever even bringing on board.

If Granlund was putting up 70 points with shocking analytics, a team would pay top assets for him though. Look at what the Rangers paid for Kane at the deadline last year. Look at what Kessel was traded for when the Penguins traded him a few years back. And those were both NTC situations as well.

 

[Peat]

Something like that would be preferable simply due to it being a two year commitment as opposed to four. But my worry of course is that they actually try to use that player even if/when he proves to be mostly-useless and he ends up being a roadblock. A scenario I'm sure everyone can easily envision.

Counterpoint - how many of the next 2-4 years do we expect Granlund's buy out penalty/retention to matter at all? Next year, next year they have a chance at pride. The year after? Who knows. The year after that? Maaaybe but we're pushing it. Year 4, unless Sid finds the elixir of youth, that is straight up rebuild territory and it doesn't matter.

At which point, why not take the lightest hit for next year which is the most certain one?