Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[SomeDude]

Matthews is gonna get a max deal from the Leafs and some endorsement deal with Boston Pizza worth $40 million a year or some shit to stay in Toronto.

(Treliving's father is the chairman and owner of Boston Pizza)

This is probably most likely. Matthews seems to enjoy the whole celebrity lifestyle. He's a rock star in Toronto. Put him in NY or LA and he's just another guy with money that nobody outside of hockey fans gives a crap about.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Matthews is gonna get a max deal from the Leafs and some endorsement deal with Boston Pizza worth $40 million a year or some shit to stay in Toronto.

(Treliving's father is the chairman and owner of Boston Pizza)

Yeah, well... PGH has Heinz.

Put Austin's mustache under the 57 and he'll sign with the Pens.

 

[Freeptop]

What's a 2023 version of the Neal/Hornqvist trade that Dubas can pull off this summer?

If I'm going to dream big, I'm hoping for a Scuderi for Daley type trade, myself

 

[DesertedPenguin]

I just don't see this with Poehling at all. He just looks like another depth piece with size that doesn't do anything notable.

Poehling is 24. There is still a possibility he develops more.

Blueger is 28. He is what he is.

I'd prefer the youngster in that situation every time.

 

[66-30-33]

If I'm going to dream big, I'm hoping for a Scuderi for Daley type trade, myself

So Granlund for Garland.

 

[Sideline]

So Granlund for Garland.

That is such a JR style trade I could see it happening.

 

[Gurglesons]

Granlund puts up 70 pts with Pettersson and Garland is put on the 4th line and puts up 20 pts.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Granlund puts up 70 pts with Pettersson and Garland is put on the 4th line and puts up 20 pts.

But can he PK?

 

[SEALBound]

That is such a JR style trade I could see it happening.

That's the Perron for Hagelin swap we could really used truth be told.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Poehling has some intriguing attributes. I like his ability to drive the net and he's got a good shot. I feel like Teddy was a better playmaker and craftier with the puck.

My big issue with Poehling is he's a very head down player with crappy vision. I think his skill set can work but you will want to pair a playmaker with him.

Wait... what?

Blueger wasn't great at anything particular outside of the hustle and tenacity he had while trying to earn an everyday contract. I swear peoples good views of him are like a record skipping because, there was a whole lot of gaps between those plays. He also got more lucky than he was actually good/skilled. He was also easy to knock off the puck.

Blueger was serviceable as long as he is kept in check cap wise. It's funny what looks good when you don't have better to put up against it.

Blueger and playmaker/goalscorer/3rd pivot and anything else is setting yourself for more nightmares. What made Blueger look even remotely good was being the F3 and keeping the play alive always circling out and the puck would come to him at times.

If Blueger comes back I'm tapping out if it's more than .900. He should never had gotten over 2.0 and certainly not the 3.5 people wanted to give him. Let him play up on a crappy team for that.

I liked Blue, he was serviceable at one point. He simply is not what you thought he was.

Poehling at least has upside and is young. Agree about getting him with a playmaker (Granlund) and a goalscorer as well.

 

[Pancakes]

Granlund puts up 70 pts with Pettersson and Garland is put on the 4th line and puts up 20 pts.

Mikael Granlund would need to play with Connor Mcdavid to put up 70 points

 

[Empoleon8771]

Mikael Granlund would need to play with Connor Mcdavid to put up 70 points

What? He put up 64 with Matt Duchene literally last year.

The hate Granlund gets from Penguins fans is way overkill.

 

[Pancakes]

What? He put up 64 with Matt Duchene literally last year.

The hate Granlund gets from Penguins fans is way overkill.

And then put up a 50 point pace this past year in Nashville (I did not include any Pens time in that calculation). And in the two years before he did that 64 point season, he put up point paces (over 82) of 43, and 39.

He's also 31.

I'd be shocked if he ever sniffs 70 points again

 

[Empoleon8771]

And then put up a 50 point pace this past year in Nashville (I did not include any Pens time in that calculation). And in the two years before he did that 64 point season, he put up point paces (over 82) of 43, and 39.

He's also 31.

I'd be shocked if he ever sniffs 70 points again

His 64 point season came out of nowhere as well and it came after 2 seasons where you mentioned he was about a 40 point guy. But the point is that Granlund can be an effective point producer if put in a position to produce points.

Honestly, I have a theory that the hate towards Granlund is just redirected hate of Hextall on Granlund, because the reaction to the trade has been absolutely ridiculous ever since the trade happened. They need to get rid of him because he's a terrible fit here, but there are legitimately Penguins fans who act like he's Jack Johnson.

 

[Peat]

Poehling has some intriguing attributes. I like his ability to drive the net and he's got a good shot. I feel like Teddy was a better playmaker and craftier with the puck.

My big issue with Poehling is he's a very head down player with crappy vision. I think his skill set can work but you will want to pair a playmaker with him.

This. It's also enough of the bottom six we've had, or are likely to have, that I keep see a role for Granlund as the one person not like this. I'm not sure it would work, but I am intrigued if they keep him.

 

[Pancakes]

His 64 point season came out of nowhere as well and it came after 2 seasons where you mentioned he was about a 40 point guy. But the point is that Granlund can be an effective point producer if put in a position to produce points.

Honestly, I have a theory that the hate towards Granlund is just redirected hate of Hextall on Granlund, because the reaction to the trade has been absolutely ridiculous ever since the trade happened. They need to get rid of him because he's a terrible fit here, but there are legitimately Penguins fans who act like he's Jack Johnson.

I don't hate Granlund. I even said recently that he's playable. He's just not a fit. Whatever. It happens. Buy him out and move on. If they decide to keep him, I'll root for him to do well and gladly eat crow if he does. I don't give a shit about being proven right with my opinions. I've been right plenty of times but also wrong plenty of times too. I don't shit golden eggs.

It was an idiotic trade by Hextall and everyone knew that the second it was made, but fortunately we don't have to deal with Ron Hextall making any more such decisions.

This. It's also enough of the bottom six we've had, or are likely to have, that I keep see a role for Granlund as the one person not like this. I'm not sure it would work, but I am intrigued if they keep him.

If they do keep him, maybe he can provide value in that way.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

So the Leafs apparently wanna keep Pridham, but since they can't offer any more than being AGM, he could very well jump ship to us.

That's what I expect at this point, come July.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Right, if you are not gonna play Granlund with your best players he's a bad fit.

You can't argue the production, he has 3 years of 60+ and another pacing for it. Mostly with the Wild, but at least he has a track record of actually doing it. Not every player is going to be an instant success. I have no issue allowing him and Zucker/Rust playing with Malkin. At least let him get to the TDL to see if he can get himself into a groove here. It's like all the more recent trades, just not enough to make a difference.

 

[Pancakes]

Right, if you are not gonna play Granlund with your best players he's a bad fit.

You can't argue the production, he has 3 years of 60+ and another pacing for it. Mostly with the Wild, but at least he has a track record of actually doing it. Not every player is going to be an instant success. I have no issue allowing him and Zucker/Rust playing with Malkin. At least let him get to the TDL to see if he can get himself into a groove here. It's like all the more recent trades, just not enough to make a difference.

Two of three of those 60+ point years came when he was 24 and 25. He's 31 now.

I'd love it if he got back to a high level but I don't see it being likely.

 

[Andy99]

look at the bottom six in the SCF… Vegas 4th line is Roy and Carrier and third line has Karlsson and Reilly Smith…and Florida has Reinhart and Lundell…we’re not going to be able to add 3-4 players in free agency of that quality to play in the bottom six…going to be tough to build up sufficient depth to do much of anything, let alone improve defense and goaltending..Granlund wouldn’t even make the Panthers or Knights line up lol

 

[Empoleon8771]

The whole Granlund dialogue at this point is just annoying at this point because he's a player that would have never been viewed as nearly as bad as he was before analytics came into the mainstream. Seeing people's reaction to Granlund make me wonder what other players from the pre-analytics era that were considered fine/good at the time but would be viewed as terrible today.

He's been a fairly consistent 40-60 point guy over his career and isn't making obscene money. He had a 50 point pace in his 5 year career with the Predators (162 points in 268 games), which was equal to his pace with Nashville before he was traded last year (36 points in 58 games). I know there is more to hockey than points, but trading a 2nd rounder for a 50 point C/W who makes $5 million a year doesn't seem ridiculous at all. It's not Granlund's fault that the Penguins acquired him for a stupid reason and tried to force him into a role that he flat out didn't fit in.

This all goes back to another conceptual discussion for how fans decide who is a "cap dump" versus who is still good but has just had some bad years. It seems almost arbitrary to me, with mostly a bias for players with sexy analytics and a bias for younger players. Ivan Provorov has allegedly been terrible for the past few years (according to what I've read from some analytics pieces), but he's still viewed as an ultra valuable defenseman on this site.

 

[Peat]

The whole Granlund dialogue at this point is just annoying at this point because he's a player that would have never been viewed as nearly as bad as he was before analytics came into the mainstream. Seeing people's reaction to Granlund make me wonder what other players from the pre-analytics era that were considered fine/good at the time but would be viewed as terrible today.

He's been a fairly consistent 40-60 point guy over his career and isn't making obscene money. He had a 50 point pace in his 5 year career with the Predators (162 points in 268 games), which was equal to his pace with Nashville before he was traded last year (36 points in 58 games). I know there is more to hockey than points, but trading a 2nd rounder for a 50 point C/W who makes $5 million a year doesn't seem ridiculous at all. It's not Granlund's fault that the Penguins acquired him for a stupid reason and tried to force him into a role that he flat out didn't fit in.

This all goes back to another conceptual discussion for how fans decide who is a "cap dump" versus who is still good but has just had some bad years. It seems almost arbitrary to me, with mostly a bias for players with sexy analytics and a bias for younger players. Ivan Provorov has allegedly been terrible for the past few years (according to what I've read from some analytics pieces), but he's still viewed as an ultra valuable defenseman on this site.

That's why analytics and micro-stats and what not became popular tho, innit. Working out who's actually good and who's got 64 points because he has the 11th most minutes of any forward that season but should never get that again.

And while I haven't dug completely and extensively through Granlund's numbers, the case for him being a guy who doesn't add much to a team other than production and who doesn't even produce that much given his minutes seems pretty good at first glance

 

[AuroraBorealis]

217 of Granlund's 484 points have come on the PP.
So, 267 non-PP points in 750 games.
Or to put it another way, 29 non-PPPs per 82 games played.

Now, take that 29 and apply the conditions here:
- Man-games lost
- Worse linemate quality than his career average
- Sully giving him near 70% D-zone starts

We'd be fortunate if he hit 20 without a good chunk of time with Malkin.
And then add around 8-10 points for strictly PP2 usage, much like Zucker got last year.

30 points max without real opportunity on PP1 or with Malkin.
Factor in how much time you think he'll get in those situations and apply that surplus production.

Put in whatever point total you want at each step, and you'll get a decent projection if your expectations are fair.
The point is, he'll be very dependant on injuries to others to produce more.
Also keep in mind that he's behind Rust in line for PP1, so he'll need at least 2 injuries to get on the top unit under this coach.

 

[Empoleon8771]

That's why analytics and micro-stats and what not became popular tho, innit. Working out who's actually good and who's got 64 points because he has the 11th most minutes of any forward that season but should never get that again.

And while I haven't dug completely and extensively through Granlund's numbers, the case for him being a guy who doesn't add much to a team other than production and who doesn't even produce that much given his minutes seems pretty good at first glance

Granlund had a 2.35 points/60 in his 64 point season. To me, that really doesn't seem bad. He was 115th in the NHL in points/60 that year with a points/60 identical to Hertl and Dubois and just a shade below Bjorkstrand and Niederreiter.

He was very obviously heavily reliant on powerplay production that year, although he was still not that bad at 5v5. He was 173rd in 5v5 points/60 and was equal to William Karlsson, Pageau and Coyle. It's not anything special and he's definitely more of a powerplay producer, but he has shown to be able to produce decently well at ES in the past.

I think everyone agrees with what he is, he's an playmaking offensive winger mostly bringing value to your powerplay. It's just a debate of how much value that has around the NHL.

 

[Jacob]

Hynes just sucks 5-on-5 offense out of players too. Duchene has had some dreadful, like his-career-must-be-over stretches in Nashville. Partly why Granlund played so much is because he bought in defensively more than Duchene or Johansen.

So better “system” here, easier matchups, but worse zone starts, linemates and less PP time. But he’ll probably get 20 games in the top-6 minimum.

I think it’s easier, and more realistic, to add a winger for Granlund than it is to both dump Granlund AND rebuild the 3rd line completely. Granlund isn’t a Staal or Karlsson or Lundell but we can still build a similar line and deploy it like these teams are. Basically like a 2nd line on a bad team that’s competent defensively and with a couple guys you can move up when injuries hit. Granlund + a UFA like Brown or Tatar and a DOC or Poehling.